What’s Next for the Twins Following the Jorge Polanco Trade?

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

A mid season trade will cost more.

Plus, this team has nailed the offseason trades while blowing the midseason trades (not blaming, I liked them at the time). Get a guy now and have him for 162 games.

Why would a 2 month rental cost more than an entire season?  Waiting until the deadline won't cost them making the playoffs.  If it does, the team is not worthy of the type expending the type of prospect capital to get a playoff caliber SP.   Waiting until the deadline is a risk reduction strategy which makes sense given the number of question marks for this team.  Why pay the cost until you know the investment makes sense given we don't need it until August / October?  Now, if they decide to expand the payroll to allow the acquisition of a good SP, sign me up.

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

DeSclafani isn’t any sort of savior so expectations should be 4.50 ERA, if things go well …….hopefully, he’s able to stay healthy and at least get 120 innings in through the year. He’s not going to elevate into the middle of the rotation. The addition is to protect Varland’s innings total & particularly his stress level……….4.50 ERA is 3 runs in 6 innings as an average - workable & probably the expectation for Varland as well.

Tommy Pham and the other FA bats (Soler, Martinez, Belt???, etc.) don’t fit because Byron Buxton is on the Club. He’s gotta have room to DH up to 80 games this year to keep his bat in the line-up & to try & ensure he’s available in October. Need to get him in the line-up 75% of the time - that’s 40 games in CF - 40 games off or on IL - 80 games at DH. None of the guys above are affordable nor a fit. Pham is probably affordable but, to me, just isn’t good enough to consider.

Burnes on a 1 year rental ($15.6M) doesn’t seem prudent - then add the fact that they don’t need OF help makes it seem like a near impossibility to pull off.

Cease within the Division is distasteful since we’d be improving the ChiSox future. Can’t imagine coming together on a deal with them.

Still seems to me that Clevinger for 2 years - 2nd year as player option - at $16M is affordable and saves all trade assets for a potential move at the deadline, if needed.

Kepler was one of 4-5 guys in the game to hit .300 or better with 30 XBH or better after the Break last year. Gotta ride that into this season and try to extract a .250 BA with 22 plus HR & good defense in ‘24. Solid - not flashy.

Wallner - Buxton/Castro/Gordon - Kepler

Lewis - CC - Julien/Farmer - Kirilloff/(Miranda or Solano)

2 catchers

That’s the 13……..if anyone is added, they need to be competent in CF (they then could play corner OF as well) to displace Gordon.

I think they sign Solano as insurance at 1B and as a potential DH (Miranda has options) if Buxton gets hurt. Also, DHing Castro doesn’t work when Buxton is in CF because they will want Castro to be flexible to sub defensively & even as a late inning runner.

Regarding Varland, while the sample size was small, he appears to be a high end reliver vs. a 4/5 starter.  I would prefer to see him in critical relief roles rather than starting.  That's part of why I do like the Polanco trade.

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Right, that's the point though. None of us should be satisfied with just winning a sad AL Central. DeSclafani isn't going to win a game in the playoffs, and the Twins need a pitcher to replace Sonny Gray who will. They don't have that guy yet.

I'm betting that at least one of Ryan/Ober is better than Gray is this year, maybe both. Maybe Paddack as well. Will they be better than Gray last year? I don't know, but this offense could be a lot better.

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

This is why I would like the Twins to take a flyer on Trevor Bauer. 

I keep waiting for the A's to sign Urias and Bauer. They don't have any fans to alienate.

How about Duvall and Lorenzen with our "surplus" from the Polanco deal? I would consider anything done with that $$ to be part of the trade. We'd likely still be in the $125-130 mil range.

1 hour ago, Johnny Ringo said:

The only time Falvey is interviewed is with one of the Twins friendlies who serve up more softballs than Jenny Lynch.

Jennie Finch. You had a good setup but didn't stick the landing on that one.

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

As far as a playoff starting pitcher, I don't see them competing to get Cease, Burnes or any other top starter, certainly without a TV deal.  Maybe they can find an undervalued asset from a bad team or someone coming off an injury, but not someone who was healthy and productive last year.

Kershaw should be ready mid-season. He's a great fit but he probably wants to play for the Dodgers or Rangers.

37 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Why would a 2 month rental cost more than an entire season? 

Scarcity. There are always more players than roster spots to begin a season. By the deadline 20% of the players are injured. Then you have to hope a bad team has the player you want on their roster.

I feel good about one of the young players figuring it out by the trade deadline. They need the bench bat for April, May and June to allow Martin, Miranda, Severino, Lee and Larnach to develop in AAA.

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I have no interest in rental pitchers. Why would this team even bother with one? Then they'd have to do the exact same thing next year, and the year after and the year after. You'd be wasting way more prospect capital in the long run by chasing your tail like this, and your risk reduction strategy would be shot because you'd have to hit on the trade target every single year as opposed to hitting on it once.

And with the expanded playoffs, we've seen the pool of available players shrink significantly midseason. 

Also if the front office doesn't believe that this team would be a contender with the addition of a #2 pitcher now at the start of the season and has to wait until midseason to decide, than ownership needs to be looking for new people to run the show.

Can’t like this enough. 

56 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Better than Gray last year? That's a really high bar.

And even so, go get someone who's more likely than them to be a front line starter, and then if Ryan/Ober/Paddack turn out to be as well, you're just that much better off. The good teams don't sit on their laurels and hope for the young pitchers to develop, they continually trade for and sign top of the rotation arms pushing the already good arms down the pecking order.

Agreed. But that's where the whole money thing comes in.

I completely agree that it is both possible and desirable to have a better pitching staff than what they currently have. But what they have is pretty good, and might be really good in a playoff where you rely on 3 guys, maybe 4. Do I want to give up a few really good position players who could help us this year to get one better pitcher? Mahle has scarred me. I don't think I'm desperate enough to do that.

Was Falveys comment about the biggest need now might be a bat a backhanded slight of polanco? As in everything but his bat is easily replaceable ? 

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I agree with your general stance here on the pitching, but to be fair to Varland it likely isn't possible for him to beat out DeSclafani no matter how well he pitches in spring. Much like Ober last year, Varland having options puts him at a nearly impossible to overcome disadvantage for the rotation. His only real shot at the rotation (unless more moves are made) is that the team puts DeSclafani in a long role in the pen. I'd guess that is not their plan, and has a very small chance of happening. All this to say that it's not as straight forward as Varland "couldn't beat out" DeSclafani. Varland is likely already pegged for the #6 starter spot starting the year in St Paul right now. Especially because they added another reliever so he's less likely to get sent there to start the year. It's not just a straight "who performs/looks better in spring" competition between those 2.

This scenario is why the recently completed trade could potentially cost the Twins way more than imagined. We shall hope for the best but only DeScla's prior MLB experience puts him above #8 in the Twins system as a starting pitcher. Have pitchers come back and had brief flurries of decent pitching? Yes. Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy,  they both had good days. San Francisco was very eager to move DeSclafani and Dipoto worked ceaselessly to move him as well. A good back end starting pitcher is not usually shuffled along so eagerly. Hey, maybe the Twins get wonderful innings from DeSclafani but the idea of pushing Varland or even Simeon Woods Richardson aside seems far from the notion discussed and written about all offseason of adding someone like Burnes, Luzardo, a Seattle top five starter, or others who might have slotted in behind Pablo Lopez. 

I think folks are beginning to see that the financial issues first noted last November are actually a thing. I'm wondering if the Twins might still trade Max Kepler and/or Kyle Farmer. It would sure help the crunch and give some players that people have talked about a chance to play, such as Larnach, Gordon, and Martin.

🍿👈🏻🤡 just enjoying the dialog

6 hours ago, stringer bell said:

You took the words out of my mouth until the part of your post that I quoted. What good does it do for the Twins to reveal more to the public about "the state of Twins nation"? Will it sell more tickets? Allow the clubs to get a better TV deal or acquire better players? 

Yes, I'd like to know more, to be an insider on future moves, but IMHO it doesn't serve the team to publicize what they might do, hence they do not reveal these things. 

I hardly meant to suggest that the Twins should discuss potentially trading Player A or Prospect B for Player C.  Nonetheless, I do think there are a zillion topics that could be socialized responsibly. If nothing else, communication can be used to galvanize Twins nation which is dying to be loved.

Analytics are broadly misunderstood and even more broadly maligned.  The RSN implosion and the attendant payroll effects has created confusion and backlash. What are the implications for the change in the playoff format to team construction and philosophy?  I could go on and on. 

The Twins often complain that fans don't love them like they should. Radio silence doesn't help their cause. 

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I have no interest in rental pitchers. Why would this team even bother with one? Then they'd have to do the exact same thing next year, and the year after and the year after. You'd be wasting way more prospect capital in the long run by chasing your tail like this, and your risk reduction strategy would be shot because you'd have to hit on the trade target every single year as opposed to hitting on it once.

And with the expanded playoffs, we've seen the pool of available players shrink significantly midseason. 

Also if the front office doesn't believe that this team would be a contender with the addition of a #2 pitcher now at the start of the season and has to wait until midseason to decide, than ownership needs to be looking for new people to run the show.

We just disagree on this one.  If we agree that a playoff caliber SP is not the difference in them making the playoffs, and we further agree that they have a lot of question marks, then leveraging the future before it is necessary to expend that capital is horrible asset management.  The authority to make such decisions is taken from management with this sort of disregard for risk mitigation in mt experience.  

The ask on available SPs has negated team's desire for trade for top at SPs this off-season.  Teams have been unwilling to pay the ask for SPs like Burns and Cease.  Those guys will be available at the deadline.  Has anyone traded for a font line starter this off-season?  Do you think more or less "playoff caliber" SPs will be traded at the deadline?

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Jennie Finch. You had a good setup but didn't stick the landing on that one.

Kershaw should be ready mid-season. He's a great fit but he probably wants to play for the Dodgers or Rangers.

My softball cred is shaky at best. 

Reportedly, the Twins picked up $8 million dollars in the deal with Seattle. Use that money to sign FA starter Mike Clevinger to a one-year, $10 - $11 million dollar deal. By signing him, you get a solid starting pitcher and lose no prospects in having to trade for a starter, and Clevinger can give the Twins 125 - 150 very effective innings. He is coming off a 3.3 WAR campaign with a 3.77 ERA in 24 starts & 131 innings last year. The Twins need another guy who takes the ball every fifth day, and that's exactly what they'll get with Clevinger. Since Paddack is coming back from injury, it is unknown how many frames that he will be able to throw, and the same goes for DeSclafani ( and there is no telling how effective he will be). Adding Clevinger to a rotation of Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and a mixture of Paddack/Varland/DeSclafani would go a long way to making me feel much more comfortable with the starting staff heading into the 2024 season. 

It sounds like Seattle enquired about Kepler, but were rebuffed. Could we have gotten one of their younger/better starters for a package?  We’ll probably never know.