Hot Spring: 9 Twins Takes to Rev You Up for Baseball

My hot take: Twins acquire Madison Bumgarner at the trade deadline to help the rotation......

Hawt take: Schoop has a bounceback season and posts numbers similar to his 2017 season. 30 HRs, 100 RBI, OPS north of .800.

Really like #1, #3, #4 and #9.  My question, Nick, would you take the over or under on 5 of 10 happening?

Great read, thanks.  Now, Play Ball!

Buxton has some serious competition to make the All Star Game.  My hot take is that Mike Trout is the starting Center Fielder in the all star game.  Other CF options include Aaron Hicks, Mallex Smith, and George Springer.  Since CF doesn't really matter he will also need to compete with Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, etc. 

What kind of season would it take for Buxton to win a popularity contest with these names?  I am betting a stat line that includes a sub .250 batting average will not cut it.  Even with the first half that Eddie Rosario had last year he arguably wasn't even snubbed because AL outfield is so deep.

Astudillo gets more at bats than Sano and continues to hit over .300 for his career.

Thanks. That was fun. I expect the team to light a fire under fans and it won’t be a dumpster fire. There’s a good chance for more than a rebuilding year. With so much youth and card shuffling, however, I expect that it will take a while to get the ball bouncing our way. Bounce our way it will, though, and we make the playoffs or come damn close. You heard it from Al, and you can call me that, since Paul Simon did.

The lone All Star will come from the bullpen. And his first name will start with a “T”.

And they will lose opening day.

Sano gets hurt in April. Austudillo comes up as his replacement and makes the All Star game.

My hot take is that Mike Trout is the starting Center Fielder in the all star game.  

Settle down! Almost too hot for the internet

I think all the good things are going to happen and none of the bad.

"5: Jake Cave will endure a nightmarish sophomore slump."

This prompts a question: Where do sophomore slumps come from? Do 2nd year players try to do too much, and wind up flailing? Do pitchers adjust, and somehow avoid making mistakes just against these guys? Do 2nd year players unconsciously relax and assume they're going to get better? Do they simply lose their chill and become drama queens for a year?

Honestly I don't know.

"5: Jake Cave will endure a nightmarish sophomore slump."

 

This prompts a question: Where do sophomore slumps come from? Do 2nd year players try to do too much, and wind up flailing? Do pitchers adjust, and somehow avoid making mistakes just against these guys? Do 2nd year players unconsciously relax and assume they're going to get better? Do they simply lose their chill and become drama queens for a year?

 

Honestly I don't know.

In Cave’s case it could simply be random variation due to sample. If our perception of Cave’s ability is significantly influenced by slash stats in a partial season then we don’t start with a very reliable picture. He could perform this year at the same skill level and put up a very different slash of 250/305/410. Some will wonder what happened. It would look like a slump but I think it is more likely the variation of slash stats driven by several factors out of the batters control.

I have a hunch Byron's going to break out this season.

He may struggle in April and May at the plate as he's shown in previous years, but his defense, speed, and presence is going to be very important to his team either way. As long as he stays healthy, he's going to be the reason this team wins the AL Central this season. His bat is going to explode eventually and it's going to be glorious. 

Byron will receive top 10 MVP votes at the end of this season. Mark my words. 

Not sure Sano striking out 200 times would be a bad thing. It would mean he was healthy...and if it comes with a lot of walks and HR's...but, yeah it would be fantastic if all that came with fewer K's.

fwiw, if Buxton has the fantastic year that many here predict (hope) will happen, he could be real close to 200 K's, as well. At his career rate, that would only take a little over 600 PA. At the 550 PA you cite for Sano, Buxton would get rung up 175 times...so he better be hitting the ball over the fence, as well.

In a quick look on the internet, the only recent study I can find, showed that an average of sixty percent of players did worse their second year on offense, than their first. However, that study did not control for the fact that batting averages were declining across the league....

The other studies I saw said that players regress to the mean their second year, but most players regress to the mean, that's why it's the mean.....

So, not surprisingly, some players play worse, some better.....

Thanks. To add...

If players aren’t performing they don’t get a continued opportunity the first year. There is a bias in the group towards players performing above their skill level and mean. It is only natural that the group will trend towards their mean in year 2.

I guess the difference is that I expect Buxton to eventually lower his baseline K-rate. He struck out at a 27% rate from June-Sept in 2017 and I think he'll eventually sustain around there. 

 

Sano might bring his K-rate down a little but I don't think he'll ever be below the mid-30s. It's just who he is.

Sano is who he is. Meanwhile, Buxton is going to revert to the two hottest months of his career?

Buxton's K-rate was 32%, with 3 HR over 109 PA in sept/oct of 2017....what had been found in August was already becoming lost again by the time that season ended.

Do I think Buxton can make substantial and sustainable adjustments? Yes. Do I think he has a track record of being able to do that so far. No. I don't see Buxton as being any different than Sano in that regard. I'm cautiously optimistic that they both start breaking through in 2019.

Another thing that is going to be hurt Jake Cave's chances of improving on what he did last year is playing time.  He's not going to be in the lineup everyday like the last 3 months of last year.

Thanks for the play by play. Now I won't have to watch this season.