From Griffin Jax Down to Steven Okert: Twins Bullpen Confidence Rankings

How many of the Twins relievers do you believe in to get the job done 80-85% of the time? 

A study done by Retrosheet several years ago showed that when a team holds a one-run lead going into the ninth inning, they win about 86% of the time. If they lead by two runs, the team wins about 94% of the time. With a three-run lead, that number jumps to about 97%

Mariano Rivera, who is the only player unanimously voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame, was successful in just over 89% of his career save opportunities. Joe Nathan’s save percentage was percentage points higher than Rivera’s. 

My point isn’t to ask how Joe Nathan didn’t even get enough votes to remain on the Hall of Fame ballot for more than one election cycle. Instead, it’s simply to point out that even the best relievers of all-time didn’t get their job done almost 10% of the time. 

So again I ask, how would you rank the relief pitchers in the Twins bullpen right now? This is a question that could be asked from month-to-month (maybe even week-to-week) and the results might look a little bit different. Frankly, the Twins need someone, a couple of relievers to have a strong stretch run. It's more important since Brock Stewart will be out of the season, and Justin Topa has had yet another setback. 

Check out my personal Twins bullpen confidence rankings, and then discuss them in the Comments below. But be sure to post your rankings too. 

RHP Griffin Jax (29)
3-4, 8 Saves, 1.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, .176 BAA
57 G, 55 ⅓ IP, 35 H, 3 HR, 12 BB, 1 HB, 71 K

I don’t think there is much question at the top of this list. In fact, earlier this week, Nick wrote that Jax has a strong case to be the Twins MVP to this point in the season. He just continues to get better and better. He has been a workhorse. He has been nearly unhittable. He throws a ton of strikes. Considering how max-effort each of his pitches are, he generally has very good control. His fastball is now consistently 96-97. His slider can be absolutely devastating and he gets a ton of swing-and-miss on it. And this year, it sure seems that his changeup has greatly improved. When it’s on, it darts down and in on a right-hander. For me, I want Jax to pitch a little bit less to try to keep his arm strong. That said, I want him pitching in the most important late-inning situation whether that happens in the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning. 

RHP Jhoan Duran (26) 
6-6, 18 Saves, 3.32 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .207 BAA 
44 G, 40 ⅔ IP, 30 H, 4 HR, 12 BB, 3 HB, 44 K 

We definitely aren’t seeing the same Jhoan Duran in 2024 that we did in 2023. While he still sits 100-103 with the four-seam fastball, and his sprinkler typically hits 97-98 mph. However, watching him, it’s not quite as electrifying as we have seen. And, maybe that’s because his season started late and he really didn’t have a spring training. That matters. His ERA is a little higher, though his WHIP is actually better. He’s giving up the same number of hits per nine innings (6.6) and home runs per nine innings (0.9). His walk rate is actually down to 2.7 BB/9 from 3.6 BB/9. Maybe what’s most notable is that his strikeout rate has dropped from 12.1 K/9 to 9.7 K/9. He’s still striking out more than a batter per inning, but 2 ½ less strikeouts per nine innings is noteworthy. Again, looking at the numbers, it’s entirely possible that we have just been spoiled by what we have seen from Duran in his first two big-league seasons. He’s still quite reliable. 

RHP Cole Sands (27) 
6-1, 4 Saves, 3.23 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, .223 BAA
47 G, 55 ⅔ IP, 47 H, 5 HR, 8 BB, 5 HB, 63 K 

I can’t imagine that anyone who made predictions about the 2024 Twins roster would have had Sands being as valuable and productive as he has been. He has been up with the team all season. He’s pitched in a variety of roles. Primarily he’s been in middle relief, but he’s had set-up opportunities too. He’s come in in the third or fourth innings, and he’s been given save opportunities when Jax and Duran are unavailable, and been quite successful. Some of that is simply being a full-time bullpen arm and that arm being healthy. He is throwing harder, touching 97 and even 98 at times. He’s always had the ability to spin the ball and get swings and misses on his slider. He also changes speeds. In 21 2/3 MLB innings in 2023, he had 3 walks. In 55 2/3 innings this year, he has just eight walks. He’s giving up less hits. His home run rate has been cut in half. He’s over 10 K/9. It sure seems that he is getting a lot more high-leverage opportunities and thankfully for the Twins, he’s been quite successful. 

RHP Jorge Alcala (29) 
3-3, 0 Saves, 3.09 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .186 BAA
43 G, 46 ⅔ IP, 31 H, 5 HR, 16 BB,3 HB, 43 K 

Alcala made his MLB debut at age 24 at the end of the 2019 season. Unfortunately, he has missed a lot of time with various arm/shoulder injuries. He pitched in 59 games for the Twins in 2021. He struck out just over a batter per inning. He had just 2.0 BB/9. His WHIP was at 0.97. But then he pitched in just two games in 2022 and just 11 games in 2023. Earlier this season, he was the guy who would get sent to the Saints when the Twins needed an arm. Simply, he had options. But, he has become much more valuable and consistent with each of his pitches. Sure, he had a bad game over the weekend, but overall, he has been quite good. He’s giving up less hits, less homers, and has his walk rate down to a more average number. Especially noteworthy is his pure stuff. He is now hitting triple digits rather consistently and his slider is often sharp, late breaking. 

RHP Ronny Henriquez (24) 
1-0, 0 Saves, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .217 BAA
5 G, 6 IP, 5 H, 0 HR, 1 BB, 0 HB, 5 K  

I would think that this is where the lists might find variance. Henriquez has been up a few times to eat innings, but it seems that he is much more sharp and throws better in the big leagues than he has with the Saints. He’s not a big guy, but he throws hard, and he’s got a really sharp slider. He hasn’t been consistent, and he’s still often being asked to work three-plus innings, but he has the kind of stuff that can dominate once through the lineup. Henriquez came up in 2022 and pitched in three games. He was hurt most of the first half of the 2023 season and then pitched in 37 games for the Saints. He came off of the Twins 40-man roster after the season but quickly re-signed with the Twins. He’s pitched pretty well with the Saints this year, cutting his walk total significantly. 

RHP Louie Varland (26)
0-5, 0 Saves, 6.14 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, .312 BAA
8 G, 7 GS, 36 ⅔ IP, 49 H,9 HR, 11 BB, 4 HB, 32 K 

I’m not sure the Twins can or should do it now. When Joe Ryan got hurt, it increased the team’s need for Varland to be available as a starter. However, if the Twins were to bring up Varland and put him into the bullpen, I think he’d be a pretty reliable option. He is throwing 98 as a starter, we’d again see triple-digit numbers from him out of the bullpen. He can air it out a bit more. He did well in the role last year. 

LHP Caleb Thielbar (37) 
2-3, 3 Saves, 5.91 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, .268 BAA
43 G, 35 IP, 38 H, 5 HR, 16 BB, 0 HB, 41 K 

Thielbar came back to the Twins for the 2020 season. That season, he posted a 2.25 ERA. From 2021-2023, his ERAs were 3.23, 3.49, 3.23. In those three seasons, he has struck out about 11 per nine innings while walking about 2 ½ per nine innings. He missed some time in 2023 and came back very strong. He missed a lot of time early in 2024, and he really struggled. On June 11 and 12, he pitched in back-to-back games against the Rockies. He faced four batters in each game and gave up four hits, three walks and one batter got on via error. He has now pitched in 20 games since then, and in 19 ⅓ innings, he has given up run(s) in five of them. Not great. His ERA is about 4.50 since then, but he’s a veteran. He’s been through it. So, unless he’s just completely done, he should be solid the rest of the season. From my eye test, he is now throwing 92-95 again and his slow, slow curveball is pretty solid again. 

RHP Josh Winder (27) 
0-0, 0 Saves, 3.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, .212 BAA
4 G, 9 IP, 7 H, 0 HR, 1 BB, 2 HB, 10 K  

Once a top 100 prospect, Winder has found himself on the Injured List pretty much since his call-up in 2022. His days as a starter are likely done. However, when healthy, he does have some really good stuff. He has plenty of fastball. He’s got a good slider, at times. We just haven’t seen it a lot since he’s been with the Saints most of the season. That is, after missing the first month of the season and not throwing through all of spring training.

LHP Kody Funderburk (27) 
1-0, 1 Save, 5.61 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, .279 BAA
26 G, 33 ⅔ IP, 36 H, 4 HR, 15 BB, 5 HB, 31 K 

Funderburk was a decent, lefty starting pitcher prospect. However, once he moved to the bullpen, he really took off. He was called up to the Twins in late August and posted a 0.75 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP over 12 innings in which he had 19 strikeouts. This year, he has given up at least one run in 13 of his 26 appearances. The last time he pitched was July 12th. He went on the Injured List with an oblique strain on July 21st. He could be back soon, and if healthy, hopefully he returns to those 2023 levels of success. 

RHP Scott Blewett (28) 
0-0, 0 Saves, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, .000 BAA
1 G, 1 IP, 0 H, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 HB, 1 K  

A week ago, Blewett threw 15 pitches in a perfect inning for the Twins to close out an 8-3 win against the Royals. It was his first MLB appearance since 2021. It felt like a great story. And by the next day, we learned that he had been DFAd. A couple of days later, we learned he cleared waivers and was outrighted to St. Paul. However, he elected to become a free agent. A day later, he re-signed with the Twins and is back with the Saints. He has pitched well throughout the season in St. Paul. He’s got a good fastball, a really good slider, and an impressive split-finger pitch. Could he get back to the Twins this season?                                                                  

RHP Trevor Richards (31)
0-1, 1 Save, 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, .100 BAA 
8 G, 9 IP, 3 H, 0 HR, 7 BB, 2 HB, 10 K  

The Twins lone trade deadline acquisition sent infielder Jay Harry to the Blue Jays organization in exchange for veteran Trevor Richards. He started with two, scoreless, one-inning outings. However, the first time he was put into a close game, he gave up three runs on one hit and an impressive five walks. The next night, Baldelli put him right back out there the next night, and he earned the save with a perfect inning. Ultimately, that is the only one of his eight appearances in which he gave up a run. He had another game in which he gave up a hit and two walks but got out of it unscathed. In his six other outings, he’s actually been just fine, but the lack of control can be hard to watch. 

LHP Steven Okert (33)  
3-2, 1 Save, 5.40 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, .273 BAA
42 G, 33 ⅓ IP, 36 H, 6 HR, 15 BB, 3 HB, 31 K   

The veteran lefty spent parts of 2016-2018 with the San Francisco Giants. He didn’t pitch in the big leagues in 2019 or 2020. However, he worked in 158 games for the Marlins between 2021 and 2023. While his FIP was over 4.30, his ERA was actually below 3.00 the first two years. Before the 2024 season, the Twins acquired Okert from the Marlins in exchange for utility man Nick Gordon. With Okert, it all comes down to Command and Control. As you see, he simply has too many walks, and that’s made worse with three hit batters. You can usually tell how an Okert outing will go pretty quick, with fastballs flying up and out of the strike zone and sliders 

Summary
So there you have it. My rankings of the current Twins with a couple of Triple-A guys thrown in for good measure. 

1. Griffin Jax

2. Jhoan Duran 
3. Cole Sands 

4. Jorge Alcala 

5. Ronny Henriquez
6. Louie Varland 
7. Caleb Thielbar

8. Josh Winder
9. Kody Funderburk (IL)
10. Scott Blewett 

11. Trevor Richards
12. Steven Okert 

Your turn. Let me know what you think of my rankings, and share yours as well.