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After back-to-back tough outings against Colorado in mid-June, trusty reliever Caleb Thielbar had an ugly 8.04 ERA, 5.09 FIP, and the worst context-adjusted win probability added (WPA/LI, -0.73) mark of any Twins pitcher this season. That rough start to the season left many wondering if this was the end for the 37-year-old left-hander.
On one hand, there was a case to be made for bad luck in a small sample. Relief pitching is notoriously volatile, and in a tiny 15 2/3-inning sample to that point, Thielbar’s batting average allowed on balls in play was a comically high .412. He’d only stranded 52.1% of the baserunners he’d allowed, far below his nearly 75% career average. Plus, Thielbar’s fastball velocity was a career-best. Velocity isn’t everything, but it’s a lot, and Thielbar’s heat this season ran contrary to the thought that Father Time was finally starting to have his way.
On the other hand, there were also signs of skill erosion. Thielbar’s command of his breaking ball-heavy arsenal was much more wobbly than usual, with fewer pitches in the strike zone and an unsightly 11.1% walk rate. His strikeout rate had plummeted to 22%, well below the 30-ish percent rates he’d run previously, thanks to a significant decline in his ability to draw empty swings. The public-facing pitch quality models supported these declines and graded Thielbar’s arsenal meaningfully lower than before.
The bottom hadn’t fallen out like some of the online discourse may have led you to believe. The quality of his stuff was still league-average or slightly better for a left-hander, but Thielbar’s margin for error had shrunk, and future success was going to require some adjustments and much sharper execution.
For their part, the Twins' brain trust espoused confidence Thielbar would find his way:
Fast-forward a month and a half, and Thielbar has shown signs of looking a lot like his old self, Sunday’s difficult outing notwithstanding.
Following his crucial six-up, six-down outing last Friday night to help the Twins sweep a doubleheader from first-place Cleveland, Meat Raffle had a 2.81 ERA and 2.55 FIP over his last 16 innings, spanning back to Jun. 20. Better yet, he’d struck out 28.8% of the batters he’d faced in that span, while walking a more stingy 7.6%. Missing bats, limiting walks, and a .268 BABIP and 76.9% strand rate that were not unusually fortunate support the idea that Thielbar has figured something out.
What Changed?
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- Parker Hageman and Karbo
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