The Key to Twins Lefty Caleb Thielbar's Midseason Turnaround - Caretaker Exclusive

[John Foley]

The Twins had faith he would find the right adjustments. For the most part, they have been right.

Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

After back-to-back tough outings against Colorado in mid-June, trusty reliever Caleb Thielbar had an ugly 8.04 ERA, 5.09 FIP, and the worst context-adjusted win probability added (WPA/LI, -0.73) mark of any Twins pitcher this season. That rough start to the season left many wondering if this was the end for the 37-year-old left-hander.

On one hand, there was a case to be made for bad luck in a small sample. Relief pitching is notoriously volatile, and in a tiny 15 2/3-inning sample to that point, Thielbar’s batting average allowed on balls in play was a comically high .412. He’d only stranded 52.1% of the baserunners he’d allowed, far below his nearly 75% career average. Plus, Thielbar’s fastball velocity was a career-best. Velocity isn’t everything, but it’s a lot, and Thielbar’s heat this season ran contrary to the thought that Father Time was finally starting to have his way. 

On the other hand, there were also signs of skill erosion. Thielbar’s command of his breaking ball-heavy arsenal was much more wobbly than usual, with fewer pitches in the strike zone and an unsightly 11.1% walk rate. His strikeout rate had plummeted to 22%, well below the 30-ish percent rates he’d run previously, thanks to a significant decline in his ability to draw empty swings. The public-facing pitch quality models supported these declines and graded Thielbar’s arsenal meaningfully lower than before.

The bottom hadn’t fallen out like some of the online discourse may have led you to believe. The quality of his stuff was still league-average or slightly better for a left-hander, but Thielbar’s margin for error had shrunk, and future success was going to require some adjustments and much sharper execution.

For their part, the Twins' brain trust espoused confidence Thielbar would find his way:

Fast-forward a month and a half, and Thielbar has shown signs of looking a lot like his old self, Sunday’s difficult outing notwithstanding.

Following his crucial six-up, six-down outing last Friday night to help the Twins sweep a doubleheader from first-place Cleveland, Meat Raffle had a 2.81 ERA and 2.55 FIP over his last 16 innings, spanning back to Jun. 20. Better yet, he’d struck out 28.8% of the batters he’d faced in that span, while walking a more stingy 7.6%. Missing bats, limiting walks, and a .268 BABIP and 76.9% strand rate that were not unusually fortunate support the idea that Thielbar has figured something out.

What Changed?

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[LambchoP]

Is this satire? What turn around? Far as I'm concerned he's totally and completely cooked. I mean, would anyone here seriously like to see him come into a close game in the late innings? I have to imagine he would have been DFA'D after the deadline on any other playoff hopeful team. You can't expect your number one lefty to get important outs when he has an ERA over 6 and gives up homers like crazy. Okert hasn't been much better, so sad to say we're stuck with him the rest of the year. But I've got to imagine he'll get nothing more than a minor league offer if anything in the off-season. My guess is, he'll retire.

[h2oface]

You must be watching different games than I am. Thielbar is used up. Totally. He might have a couple lucky games yet, but that doesn't change anything. To keep Thielbar is just not smart.

[Karbo]

I still have more faith in him than Okert.

[Doctor Wu]

i appreciate the deeper dive into the stats and trying to show something positive, but I still don't see any sort of turnaround. But man, I hope you are seeing something that we aren't and the recent results are actually something to stoke our optimism. It would be most wonderful to have Thielbar looking like he did a few years back. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Define turn around....

[Maybe Next Year]

Turnaround? Really? The only turnaround I want to see with Thielbar is his release. His better days are behind him and it’s time for him to hang it up.