Can Edouard Julien Overcome His Dire Platoon Weakness?

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This idea that MLB players are finished products holds no water. None.

Concur.

It is just going to take more time because he isn’t going to get that repetition in the majors. He isn’t ready. They saw that in the spring. They don’t need to keep seeing it. He has the off season. He has next spring. He is a valuable bat against right handed pitching now. That is why they need him. Lots of guys gradually increase their ability to hit lefties over the first few years. It isn’t going to happen in months in the majors. The repetition isn’t possible. For Julien he may never get there and he will still be a valuable player on the roster. The decision to bring him up and platoon him him was the correct decision. 

Great article and I’m glad you mentioned Arraez. People screamed for years that he should be in the lineup and I called him borderline unplayable vs lefties. The stats backed it up. He was awful against lefties. His first year away from MN, he’s hitting .328 with a very manageable .744 OPS

he struggled to get a .600 ops in some of his twins seasons. 

So my question is, is this a Twins development issue? Wallner looks bad, Larnach looked bad, even Kiriloff who has all the tools to hit lefties can’t seem to do it. Hell, even our righties haven’t hit lefties the last few years. 

Julien is already so valuable and I think there is capacity for so much more. Over time he will he better against lefties. He will find a defensive home.

The one area I think will have the biggest impact is his approach once he gets to three balls. Players typically do really well when the count is 3-1. The Twins as a team have a triple slash of 299/734/563. 

Julien is missing opportunities here. He has one hit when the count is 3-1. He rarely swings. His triple slash is 100/550/100. The result is usually a 3-2 count. The problem with going to a full count is that the OPS in this count by team is cut in half. Julien is hitting .102 with a full count. He does get a lot of walks. He also strikes out at a rate only topped by Gallo. I don’t have the number but it seems like many of those strike outs are looking. If he can adjust his approach to take advantage of those 3-1 counts he will even be more valuable. He has the skill and eye to get to that batter’s count. Now he needs to start taking advantage of it and punish pitchers in that count.

42 plate appearances is nothing, looking at his AA numbers also is fair, but with such a short track record, especially for judging a platoon split, why not just add up all of his professional experience so far?

For his career at all levels:

vs RHP: 1200 PA, 293/438/503, 941 OPS

vs LHP: 334 PA, 241/377/370, 747 OPS

He has a big platoon split, which is about the least surprising thing you could say about a left handed hitter.  It might be bigger than your average lefty, but his sub-500 OPS in 42 PA is basically meaningless.  I find it hard to believe he won't be at least around a 650 OPS against LHP long-term.

I would hope that the numbers Rocco is looking at in the dugout are some kind of reasonable projection based on Julien's whole minor league track record.  It would be incompetence for the analytics team to give him a 42 PA sample as meaningful data, so I have a hard time believing that was the data behind the decision.

Is Julien against a lefty a better bet than Vazquez against a righty?  For his career Vazquez has a 667 OPS vs righties (734 vs lefties).  Vazquez has also hit much worse than his career this year.  I'd say it's a close call, but mostly I just haven't enjoyed watching Vazquez at the plate this year so I never like seeing him as a pinch hitter.

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Julien has been on the major league roster roughly 110 days, not exactly five months. They acquired both Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer as bench players who were earmarked to improve the Twins' performance against left handed pitching and both are capable second basemen. I know that I don't favor pinch hitting, but it does figure that Julien doesn't get many starts against left handed pitchers. 

And how did those acquisitions work out in terms of production against left handed pitching.  We have been either at or near the bottom in offense against left handed pitching all year.  Why continue the same practice, try something different give the kids a chance against the lefties, the production can't get any worse.

Julien has been taking too many called third strikes. Walks are important, but a good hitter has to swing at close pitches with 2 strikes. He is too good a hitter to waste a at bat on a called third strike. He would hit some of the called third strikes and have a better average  if he would have tried to hit those called third strikes. I am sure he will get better, but the hitting coach has to work with him regarding taking a close pitch with 2 strikes.

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ha, so, um, you are PHing for three of their better hitters with Luplow and Vazquez in the playoffs? Golly, no. 

This is why Buxton needs to return

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

The Twins as a team have a triple slash of 299/734/563. 

Julien is missing opportunities here. He has one hit when the count is 3-1. He rarely swings. His triple slash is 100/550/100. 

The problem there isn't when he takes, it's when he swings and makes contact. Add 200 points of batting average to his numbers and you get a slash line almost exactly like the Twins have as a team (.300 BA, 750 OBP).

Taking a pitch 3-1 doesn't affect your batting average at all. Swing and miss on 3-1 doesn't affect your batting average either, it just advances the count to 3-2.

40 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

Julien has been taking too many called third strikes. Walks are important, but a good hitter has to swing at close pitches with 2 strikes. He is too good a hitter to waste a at bat on a called third strike. He would hit some of the called third strikes and have a better average  if he would have tried to hit those called third strikes. I am sure he will get better, but the hitting coach has to work with him regarding taking a close pitch with 2 strikes.

Expanding the zone in a 3-2 count is dumb, you can draw a walk 50% of the time on a "close" pitch.

Expanding the zone in an 0-2 count is dumb, umpires usually tighten the zone in that count.

So you're talking about how he hits 1-2 or 2-2.

Julien's greatest strength as a batter is he doesn't chase pitches out of the zone. He doesn't hit the ball very well at the edges of the zone anyway. If he swings more often at those pitches he will be less effective - more strikeouts and double play balls, fewer walks and barrels.

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

The problem there isn't when he takes, it's when he swings and makes contact. Add 200 points of batting average to his numbers and you get a slash line almost exactly like the Twins have as a team (.300 BA, 750 OBP).

Taking a pitch 3-1 doesn't affect your batting average at all. Swing and miss on 3-1 doesn't affect your batting average either, it just advances the count to 3-2.

Why do you suppose batters hit so much better in a 3-1 count than a 3-2 count?

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ha, so, um, you are PHing for three of their better hitters with Luplow and Vazquez in the playoffs? Golly, no. 

How about in the 9th inning with Solano or Castro?

Edouard Julien is real firebrand for controversy on Twins Daily. The conversations, disagreements, and occasional volatile reactions have been interesting this summer. 

My own take is that Julien is an exciting talent who is exceedingly inexperienced  for a MLB player. He has also been a critical part of this 2023 Twins team. This has been chronicled.

What seems to be creating controversy regarding Julien is: 1. his fielding 2. his batting approach 3. being pinch hit for.

Julien is unfinished as a defensive player. He is much improved since the start of the year with fair lateral skills. Edouard looks awkward at times and is a hesitant fielder whose transfers are less than smooth. The facts are that he makes most of the plays. Still, viewers are somewhat queasy whenever Julien is involved in a defensive play. This seems understandable but doesn't mean that one cannot acknowledge that Eddie is getting better with his glove.

Julien is the anti-Guerrero Sr. Edouard is not ever going to successfully hit pitches out of the strike zone. Thus he is super selective, perhaps to a fault. I would like to see Julien swing more on 3-0 and 3-1 counts as well. I feel he guesses at times in those counts. As far as the called strike three pitches, I'm willing to bet that two thirds of those pitches were balls. Finally, Julien will grow into being more successful in certain counts as he becomes more comfortable and learns the pitchers; he is still an inexperienced rookie.

Finally, there are the annoying times when Julien has been lifted for a pinch hitter. He does struggle against left-handed arms and he is inexperienced. It makes sense to sit Julien at times. I believe that Julien will get more opportunities next season. The specific use of Vazquez for Julien yesterday seemed confounding. There may have been other items involved that we are not privy to as fans. Julien messed up when he took that 3-2 pitch down the middle with Farmer on the move. Edouard does not just take a fastball in the middle of the zone in any count unless he is totally fooled and a run and hit play requires the hitter to swing at anything close. Missed signs are a just cause to be lifted in a subsequent at bat. Either way , we don't know and it is best to not rush to judgment.

Julien has created plenty of controversy this season in any event. Hopefully his leg heals and he goes on a tear in October.

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

"Shill." I called it a defensible decision, never even said at any point it's what I would've done. Y'all are so extreme lol. At most leaving Julien in there would've given them a fractionally better chance at avoiding an out, like from 15% chance to 10%, and you're acting like they flat-out lost the game because of it. 

Vazquez's numbers against RH this year are still better than Julien's against LHP. And if you wanna talk bigger samples, Vazquez vs RH last year (nearly identical to his career): .258/.307/.360. That's respectable. I know you want to frame him as the worst hitter in the history of the universe because he's having a bad year, but again, all these extremes and hyperboles don't really lend to interesting or productive discussion.

Vazquez is going to play in the postseason, like it or not. There's value in giving him those high-stakes looks too. 

Velazquez has been hitting better since the All Star break.  Closer to the .680 OPS range which is close to his career average.  Also I can see why his numbers are down this year as he is seeing more RHP this year and fewer LHP which is probably why he is getting the pinch AB.  Jeffers numbers are also likely better cause he is facing more of the lefties in the C platoon of 2 RH C.

The left handed pitcher problem will not be solved this month or next month. It would not hurt the Twins to sign as many LH pitchers who will be minor league free agents and sign them with an invite to spring training. Then you would at least have batting practice pitchers for a while.  The Twins batting coaches seem to be more about mechanics than adjustments. I could be wrong on the coaches. When there have been numerous times words about hitters needing to make adjustments, either they are willfully not doing it, or do not know what adjustments to make. One is a player problem, one is a coach problem

15 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Expanding the zone in a 3-2 count is dumb, you can draw a walk 50% of the time on a "close" pitch.

Expanding the zone in an 0-2 count is dumb, umpires usually tighten the zone in that count.

So you're talking about how he hits 1-2 or 2-2.

Julien's greatest strength as a batter is he doesn't chase pitches out of the zone. He doesn't hit the ball very well at the edges of the zone anyway. If he swings more often at those pitches he will be less effective - more strikeouts and double play balls, fewer walks and barrels.

Have you seen how many of his strikeouts are on called third strikes?  He is not helping the team by striking out on a called third strike. Good hitters are seldom called out on third strike. Good hitters will foul off a close pitch and then wait for another pitch. Do you really think that players walk 50% of time on 3-2 pitch? That is just not true!

16 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Y'all are so extreme lol.

It's extreme to suggest that the Twins should not have pinch hit a terrible hitter for a better one?  Sure, ok.  

14 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Why do you suppose batters hit so much better in a 3-1 count than a 3-2 count?

It's pretty simple math. When you take a strike or swing and miss it doesn't get counted in the denominator on a 3-1 count but it does for a 3-2 count.

Possible outcomes 3-1 = ball in play, walk, advance to a 3-2 count (which doesn't get counted in the batting average)

Possible outcomes 3-2 = ball in play, walk, strikeout