DET 4, MIN 2: Mauer Reaches Milestone, Hildenberger Flops

I have always thought the berger was lucky. It seems to have run out. But that doesn't stop Molitor from exposing him over and over and over.... and over and over.

May is certainly failing his audition. It appears relief with men on base is not spelled M-A-Y.

500-pound fastball. That's funny! Perhaps Stewart just needed it to count - turn it on in the show. Detroit counts, right? But he also did it against Houston. That definitely counts.

Does pitching against the current Twins' lineup count for Turnbull?

It's an interesting question: how locked in should you be to the "avoid the 3rd time through" strategy? How do you evaluate how much of a pitcher's struggles the 3rd time through against a team's best hitters is due to fatigue or familiarity? If it's familiarity, then a fairly rigid approach makes sense. If it's due more to fatigue, then you have to think about it a little more, especially if a guy is at 75 pitches and rolling along.

 

nice to see Kohl Stewart have another good outing, though obviously September production is always a little suspect (see also Parmelee, Chris). The decline in BBs is exactly what he needs to be doing and it's nice to see how close his FIP is to his ERA. he's a very interesting case right now, and I think the Twins were fortunate he slipped through Rule 5 last year.

Research shows it is almost totally familiarity, and not fatigue. So, rigid. Plus, they got what they want/need.....6 innings from the primary. 

This one seems to show the other!

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/28506/baseball-therapy-is-there-a-times-through-the-order-penalty/

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/22156/baseball-proguestus-everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-the-times-through-the-order-penalty/

this one rebuts the first one, politely...

https://mglbaseball.com/2016/02/29/does-familiarity-breed-contempt-or-is-fatigue-not-the-best-pillow/

It's weird, Molly seems to have a really difficult time trusting relievers, but then once he does, it's ride or die. He'll keep rolling with that guy even through a big slump.

 

Some of that "stick to your guns" mentality can be productive over the course of a long season, but it's clear this is more than just a blip on the radar for Trevor. He's really fighting it right now.

 

 

You hit the nail on the head. This is my criticism of Paul Molitor. I don't know if this is Paul or a management directive that he has to follow or if it's a collective agreement... but this is my criticism to whomever is making these decisions. I assume it is Molitor because he did the same thing in 2016 when his supervisors were elsewhere... Kepler and Polanco were called up as backups and benched while the chosen starters played the team into a first pick overall in 2017.  

Players are allowed to fail for long stretches before adjustments are finally made (if ever). The position players, the bullpen, the rotation, he seems to lock them into roles and then he throws away the key. We went down with the ship.

I'm not considering the argument that there is nobody else to turn to because we get the same amount of roster spaces as every other team.If a manager doesn't utilize those roster spaces when the guys he is utilizing are performing woefully that will never be an excuse in my eyes. Even the worm will turn. Put up a fight. We had players that needed some time off and still do. 

McGill was being utilized to near full extent until Phil Hughes was traded and then McGill was given the long reliever job and he then became severely under utilized waiting to pitch multiple innings in a lopsided contest. Reed and Pressly were going through a long stretch of struggles and they remain the set-up guys throughout. Hildenberger now going through a long stetch of struggle and he remains a go to guy even though there are multiple September options to try instead. 

Astudillo is brought up as a utility guy and never catches... Then he is brought up as a catcher and he is never utility. 

Morrison, Sano, Buxton, Dozier, Wilson playing well below replacement level for a long stretch and in the lineup every day while players who were out-performing them are forced to watch them not perform from the bench. 

I don't know who is responsible but I do feel that they can change. I've seen Molitor convert to the new concept of using an opener so I know he can convert to something else. If Molitor or whomever in the front office can commit to not going down with the ship. I have no problem with them coming back next year for 2019.

If they can't... I will personally want someone else to take over the job.

It doesn't mean that you bench Dozier when he is struggling so Petit can play... But it does mean that Dozier has to check the lineup card to see if he is on it until he turns it around. 

25 Guys who can play and 25 guys who are utilized and 25 guys in honest to god competition for the bulk of the playing time. I'm watching other teams do it successfully so this approach is no longer unprecedented.

I'm now watching the Indians add Josh Donaldson to 3B which moved Jose Ramirez to 2B and Jason Kipnis to CF. Ramirez and Kipnis have some experience at 2B and CF (although Kipnis CF experience is pretty limited) but... neither player got reps during the season but they are making the move now to accommodate Josh Donaldson right now during the home stretch. If the Indians would have been committed to flexibility all year long, they could have been preparing for a Josh Donaldson type acquisition all year long but instead... they wait until the end of August to slam it all into place.  

25 guys who can play... Roster Flexibility... No tolerance of sub .200 BA or sub .700 OPS numbers.

I will settle for nothing less. 

Hildenberger is just another example as we close out 2018 and turn our eyes to 2019. 

Kohl Stewart... even when he had the rough start... I could see with my eyeballs that he has stuff. Incredible movement that will make it hard for guys to square him up. I liked him from day one and I believe he has a future. 

Gonsalves... still needs to show me something. 

Stewart is ahead of Gonsalves on my personal depth chart. 

It is an interesting question.

My own bias is—and this is long held, and unrelated to the opener/primary pitcher idea—is a strong preference to get the starter out BEFORE he runs into trouble rather than after. So I will say that in this case, with a pitcher such as Stewart, if you get six shutout innings, and he’s given you as much or more than you could have hoped for, turn a clean inning over to the pen, and ask them to do what you have them there for.

I don’t know what would have happened in this specific case, but over time, I think that’s the way to go.

100% agree.

I think this conversation should be one people remember in criticizing a manager.  We have two sides on the Stewart decision making rational arguments about a hypothetical situation.

It's a tough spot to be in to consistently predict which hypothetical is the one to go with.  I tend to side with Chief's perspective on the macro level, but that doesn't stop people from complaining on the micro.  Maybe it should temper it a bit though.