5 Big Moves the Twins Could Still Make Before Opening Day

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

This makes the most logical sense. Detroit is going to dominate the division for the next 4-5 years and let’s face it Lopez and Ryan are not gonna be extended due to the Twins shrinking payroll.  In the future I expect the Pohlad and their partners to run the team like the Pirates. 

I don't see the TIgers being that dominant for that long.  Skubal is gone at years end, if not sooner.  Valdez is a downgrade from him, and has an option after year 2

Ryan for Rutschman? No way! Play the first half of the season and then decide.

After the way, Julien, Lewis, Lee and others have come up and had impressive rookies seasons.  Why be in a big rush to extend Keaschall.   Jenkens so far has been very injury prone is he going to become another Lewis?   I think these guys have some more proving to do before I'd throw my money at them.  

I think they really were in on Valdez and the other famous big expensive talented out of reach names, as reported by Ken R and the rest.  But I think it was only going to happen for one of those short one year deals. And I think it was only going to happen if Lopez and his $21m salary was out the door in under an hour. 

But I do think that was possible. Boston would like a front of rotation guy and you might get an OF from them for Lopez plus or minus some minor league talent. We've got young arms to offer and they have a deep pen to trade from, so things could be worked out. BAL might have been able to put together a C or 1B package, and if we got a catcher then they could have moved Jeffers too.

I'm not at all in favor of weakening the rotation, so all of this is predicated on adding first, but it could have happened if they stumbled into one of those top arms. (And that top arm could have been moved in July if the situation warranted it and that guy approved.) 

Whatever, I would still try to get HOU or AZ interested in Larnach. Both need some OF help. Maybe try for a young 1B from someone, Mayo in BAL maybe? (Not for an OF obviously.) 

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I mean... everybody can have an opinion, but Larnach is a league average bat. Wallner has always been far superior to Larnach in terms of production at the plate. 

 

vs. 

Appreciate all the data you provide, bean.  But in this case, sure would be nice to know what I am looking at.

28 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It takes a major investment, then results, then re-investment to generate excitement.

The San Diego Padres showing the path. As recently as 2018 the Minnesota Twins and the San Diego Padres were very comparable, similar market size, similar franchise value. 

Since then, the Padres have spent around $500 million more in their payroll, seeing about $350 million returned back to the team in elevated attendance and other revenue sources. As a reward, the Padres are nearing a sale of their franchise, and their asking price is $800 million higher than the Twins were seeking. And it looks like they're going to get it, at least most of the way there.

The Pohalds are terrible business people. 

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

I expect the Twins are being realistic about their chances of competing, just not telling the public. 

The public is not paying attention to Tom Pohlad when they buy tickets. There are plenty of other, better sources of information.

51 minutes ago, mickster said:

I don't see the TIgers being that dominant for that long.  Skubal is gone at years end, if not sooner.  Valdez is a downgrade from him, and has an option after year 2

Yes. But Tigers have always been the team most willing to spend when they think they're ready to field a contender, and they not only have a better TEAM right now, with good young core players, but they also have a better farm system with near MLB ready top prospects. 

If their front office thinks Riley Greene, Max Clark, McGonigle, Colt Keith, and Kerry Carpenter are their core to build around, we could see consistent big spending to field good teams around them. 

15 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

The San Diego Padres showing the path. As recently as 2018 the Minnesota Twins and the San Diego Padres were very comparable, similar market size, similar franchise value. 

Since then, the Padres have spent around $500 million more in their payroll, seeing about $350 million returned back to the team in elevated attendance and other revenue sources. As a reward, the Padres are nearing a sale of their franchise, and their asking price is $800 million higher than the Twins were seeking. And it looks like they're going to get it, at least most of the way there.

The Pohalds are terrible business people. 

Well sure, spending. But the Pohlads have taken $400m out of the organization, like real professional bankers, and they did it without any external motivations like "wanting to win before the owner dies of cancer." 

One thing I thought the Twins could have done earlier in the winter was taking on Christian Walker's salary from Houston to save them from Luxury Tax problems. They are within $10m of heavy costs for additional spending and were looking at losing several important parts. 

Getting him off their books would have allowed them to make other moves free of addition taxes, and anything spent would have been worth more than the actual dollars needed to get rid of him. That is, removing his $20m per year in exchange for Larnach in December, for example, nets $15m savings but then they could have put in a bid for someone like Valdez at $33m without luxury tax, whereas $33m plus 50% is a very different proposition. They could have sent along talent to encourage MN to eat the $15m, or brought in a third team to help defray costs. (EG Walker to MN, Larnach to HOU, and a third party with cash, no luxury tax concerns and imagination sends money to MN and gets prospects from HOU and possibly MN.) 

Alas, we weren't spending in December, Houston had other plans for recovering from their talent losses, and then we signed Bell. But I think there was a clever way to make this work. 

There are currently 9 outfielders on the 40 man roster. Adding in Jenkins that gives 10 ready or near ready major league outfielders. There are several other guys on the 40 man who could potentially see time in the outfield. If I am reading the comments right, most commentators here view Lanarch and Wallner as platoon players who shouldn't see more than 450 plate appearances or so a year. Very few view either one as more than major league average.

If that is true, trade them both. Find out if we have anybody that is at least potentially, a full time player. As far the rest of the big moves, keep Jeffers. Extend him if you can. At least he helps give you above average catching. Keep Lopez and Ryan too. They help  make the Twins watchable. If you don't catch lightning in a bottle among the position players, they can still be traded at the deadline. 

The bullpen needs to be sorted this spring. Figure out which marginal starter  should be a reliever and get them to figuring out what they need to do to be successful in that role.

I also don't view the first base situation very favorably. I wish that there was someone there who could be viewed as a middle of the order bat who is above average defensively. Maybe someone will emerge there.

3 hours ago, C-Gangster said:

I don't think we're gonna be contenders. But I do think we're gonna do a little better then people expect.

This is fair because my expectations is we win about 70 games. If we win more than 75 I'll be pleasantly surprised.

It's been suggested that after the hauls the Nats got for Gore and the Brewers for Peralta that the Twins are sitting on a Gold Mine if they ever decide to trade Joe Ryan.  It's hard to argue that the return for Ryan would be tremendous.

I can also agree that I don't really expect the Twins to compete for a playoff position in 2027.  ZIPS may have them within 5 games of Detroit or Cleveland but I just don't see it.  Or better put, the only way I see it is if Buxton remains healthy and duplicates his 2025 stats and a whole bunch of guys have career years.  But that's pretty unlikely.

So I like the premise of Nick's article, because it would be what a sensible team would do staring at probable non-contention in 2027 and a lockout/strike highly likely in 2027.  IF...and this is a big IF...the Twins were to trade Joe Ryan, here are 2 trades I could get behind were they to come to pass.

Red Sox Get:  Joe Ryan 29 y/o  51.7 value and Ryan Jeffers 29 y/o 12.8 value.  Total Value:  64.5.              Twins Get:      Jarren Duran 29 y/o  41.9 value and Connelly Early 23 y/o 24.1.   Total Value  66.0

The Twins won't have Jeffers any longer than July 1st of this season and now have 2 other Catchers to fill the position.  Duran is a solid OF who can play an excellent LF and also CF should Buxton need a day off or gets injured.  He brings an element of extra base hit power, somewhat magnified by Fenway Park but absolutely legit and SPEED.  A lineup with Keaschall, Duran and Buxton at the top would be exciting.  The Twins also add a solid 23 y/o LH SP in Early with some very intriguing stuff.  He's currently set to be Boston's #4 or #5 SP so Ryan moving into the #2 spot makes him available. 

The 2nd trade would be a minor deal with some high upside.

D-Backs Get:  Trevor Larnach 28 y/o  2.0 value and Travis Adams 1.6 value.  Total Value 3.6

Twins Get:      Jordan Lawler 23 y/o SS/2B/3B  3.6 value.

The D-Backs, as was previously pointed out need an OF with a little bit of pop with Lourdes Gurriel out to begin the season.  Adams is a BP piece that may or may not work out for Arizona, but you can never have too many arms.  Lawler is a former top rated prospect for the D-Backs who has been surpassed by multiple guys and now owns a BBTV of just 3.6.  Yet he's only 23 years old and would be an excellent gamble by the Twins.  At worst, Lawler becomes the Twins primary IF Utilityman.  At best, he beats out Brooks Lee as a clearly better defender, making Brooks Lee the Utility IF.  Acquiring Lawler allows the Twins a little more time for Culpepper at St. Paul.  Best case scenario for the Twins, Lawler shines and Culpepper cannot be ignored at St. Paul and they are the Twins middle IF with Keaschall primarily playing LF with a little 2B/1B.  Our OF and IF defense takes a big step up.  

After the salary savings of moving off Larnach, Ryan and Jeffers for the Twins, a power relief arm like Kopech could be signed for 2 years between $7-$8 million annually.  The Twins have an actual closer in Kopech with Taylor Rogers able to close when needed and David Festa is groomed to eventually be the guy.  

What are the Twins realistic chances of retaining Ryan by signing him to an extension with a 2027 work stoppage looming?  What will the financial landscape be after the MLBPA v Owners battle royal?  The Twins are currently brimming with young arms that need innings. Connor Prielipp is on the verge, Dasan Hill, Charlie Soto and others could move quickly. You could argue that if Connelly Early is part of the Red Sox package for Ryan, that Baily Ober could also be traded. 

I could envision a rotation led by Pablo Lopez with Early, Bradley, Matthews, Prielipp, Abel, Dasan Hill and Charlie Soto and others.  The mistake Falvey made and the reason I believe the parting of ways was so sudden, is that this is CLEARLY not a season of high expectations for the Twins.  Development of young pitching and young hitters should be the goal.  And that's why Nick's article about some moves possibly still to come makes a lot of sense.  

17 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

It's been suggested that after the hauls the Nats got for Gore and the Brewers for Peralta that the Twins are sitting on a Gold Mine if they ever decide to trade Joe Ryan.  It's hard to argue that the return for Ryan would be tremendous.

I can also agree that I don't really expect the Twins to compete for a playoff position in 2027.  ZIPS may have them within 5 games of Detroit or Cleveland but I just don't see it.  Or better put, the only way I see it is if Buxton remains healthy and duplicates his 2025 stats and a whole bunch of guys have career years.  But that's pretty unlikely.

So I like the premise of Nick's article, because it would be what a sensible team would do staring at probable non-contention in 2027 and a lockout/strike highly likely in 2027.  IF...and this is a big IF...the Twins were to trade Joe Ryan, here are 2 trades I could get behind were they to come to pass.

Red Sox Get:  Joe Ryan 29 y/o  51.7 value and Ryan Jeffers 29 y/o 12.8 value.  Total Value:  64.5.              Twins Get:      Jarren Duran 29 y/o  41.9 value and Connelly Early 23 y/o 24.1.   Total Value  66.0

The Twins won't have Jeffers any longer than July 1st of this season and now have 2 other Catchers to fill the position.  Duran is a solid OF who can play an excellent LF and also CF should Buxton need a day off or gets injured.  He brings an element of extra base hit power, somewhat magnified by Fenway Park but absolutely legit and SPEED.  A lineup with Keaschall, Duran and Buxton at the top would be exciting.  The Twins also add a solid 23 y/o LH SP in Early with some very intriguing stuff.  He's currently set to be Boston's #4 or #5 SP so Ryan moving into the #2 spot makes him available. 

The 2nd trade would be a minor deal with some high upside.

D-Backs Get:  Trevor Larnach 28 y/o  2.0 value and Travis Adams 1.6 value.  Total Value 3.6

Twins Get:      Jordan Lawler 23 y/o SS/2B/3B  3.6 value.

The D-Backs, as was previously pointed out need an OF with a little bit of pop with Lourdes Gurriel out to begin the season.  Adams is a BP piece that may or may not work out for Arizona, but you can never have too many arms.  Lawler is a former top rated prospect for the D-Backs who has been surpassed by multiple guys and now owns a BBTV of just 3.6.  Yet he's only 23 years old and would be an excellent gamble by the Twins.  At worst, Lawler becomes the Twins primary IF Utilityman.  At best, he beats out Brooks Lee as a clearly better defender, making Brooks Lee the Utility IF.  Acquiring Lawler allows the Twins a little more time for Culpepper at St. Paul.  Best case scenario for the Twins, Lawler shines and Culpepper cannot be ignored at St. Paul and they are the Twins middle IF with Keaschall primarily playing LF with a little 2B/1B.  Our OF and IF defense takes a big step up.  

After the salary savings of moving off Larnach, Ryan and Jeffers for the Twins, a power relief arm like Kopech could be signed for 2 years between $7-$8 million annually.  The Twins have an actual closer in Kopech with Taylor Rogers able to close when needed and David Festa is groomed to eventually be the guy.  

What are the Twins realistic chances of retaining Ryan by signing him to an extension with a 2027 work stoppage looming?  What will the financial landscape be after the MLBPA v Owners battle royal?  The Twins are currently brimming with young arms that need innings. Connor Prielipp is on the verge, Dasan Hill, Charlie Soto and others could move quickly. You could argue that if Connelly Early is part of the Red Sox package for Ryan, that Baily Ober could also be traded. 

I could envision a rotation led by Pablo Lopez with Early, Bradley, Matthews, Prielipp, Abel, Dasan Hill and Charlie Soto and others.  The mistake Falvey made and the reason I believe the parting of ways was so sudden, is that this is CLEARLY not a season of high expectations for the Twins.  Development of young pitching and young hitters should be the goal.  And that's why Nick's article about some moves possibly still to come makes a lot of sense.  

I particularly like the second trade suggestion. 

Nick, you've hit the Bullseye on a realistic plan going forward.  Trade Ryan and Jeffers for ready major league talent that can improve glaring weaknesses in defense and offense. We have enough depth to absorb their losses, particularly with almost zero chance of contention in 2026/2027 with the current roster.   I like Top Gunn's proposed trade for Lawler and partially like his suggestion of acquiring Duran for Ryan(though not seeing the need for Early as much as adding a !B - maybe Casas?).  Better bet would be to trade Jeffers + prospects for a regular emerging 1B from another team with a lesser risk than Casas.

And yes, Kopech seems like a natural, albeit risky signing.  Would try to nab JoJo Romero from Cards even though he's LH.  Would they be interested in one of our near-major-league ready starters or Larnach?  Those two additions could at least bring our pen up to near league average.

The dysfunction in ownership now is so dishearteninhg.  To trade away our entire bullpen in July, then do a 180 deg. turn and say we can still contend in 2026 with a limited budget is idiocy.  With 2027 looking like a strike-filled year, there is little reason to hold onto Ryan while his trade value remains high.  A total rebuild makes so much more sense now, it's a wonder that even tone-deaf Tom can't see it!

45 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Jordan Lawler

Lawlar

45 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Jordan Lawler 23 y/o SS/2B/3B  3.6 value

BBTV is pretty much useless because it often says something ridiculous like this.

Compare him to Alan Roden. I kind of like Roden, but he's in a somewhat similar situation to Lawlar. He's a post hype "prospect" that murdered AAA and struggled in very limited MLB opportunities. But whereas Roden is down to his last chance to impress, now 26 years old, Lawlar doens't turn 24 until the second half of this season. 

How is Alan Roden's "value" 3x that of Jordan Lawlar? BBTV should only be used as one small tool, not a basis for trade proposals. 

Well, you enter spring training and hope none of Lopez, Ryna, Jeffers or Larnach go on the injured list. And you hope someone from another team does, so they come calling on Twinsland.

My main reason for trading, say, Lopez, is salary. The Twins can't afford to have Lopez start just 15 games again in 2026. It also hurts his return. If he stays healthy heading towards the trade deadline, or just in April/May, is can bring abck a decent return.

The Twins have no desire, it seems, to extend Jeffers. What $$$ amount would it take? Does Jefers hope he can get 3-5 years once a free agent? Teams will come calling if they lost a catcher in spring training. But the Twins also need to weigh carefully what they can get in return vs. him just walking. I see the Dodgers grabbed Rortvedt, who is making the waiver musical chairs. Too abd they couldn't grab him to stash at AAA.

Ryan is worth a helluva a lot right now. I would worry about attitude as much as injury. How frsutrated will he be only get 2-3 runs of support in a game? If the Twins aren't willing to offer him $120m plys, they need to package him sooner rather than later. It would open the logjam of arms at AAA for sure. 

Larnach, Wallner, Roden, Outman, maybe even Martin, are all replaceable by next season with Gonzales, Jenkins, Rodriguez and even more 4th/5th guys in the wings. Larnach has the most worthg of the bunch, which isn't saying much. Martin brings something to the game that they don't have if he isn't in the lineup.

Bullpen arms. Bring back Coulombe!? The Twins have been very week in picking up ANY minor league free agents of note. Most I wouldn't even give a month at AAA. Finding gems in the coal bin ain't happening in 2026.

I would be on board to trade Ryan while his value is high. Otherwise, if trying to compete this year,  I would try to trade SWR or Ober for a couple of bullpen arms...say to Colorado for Vodnik and Mejia as an example. 

If rebuilding, then I trade Jeffers; if not, then I trade or try to stash Jackson and not worry about getting anything for Jeffers if he can't be extended.

Larnach and/or Wallner need to be traded, no matter what. It seems Wallner would have a better return. Trading both would be good...clear some room for Jenkins and EmRod. Outman needs to be DFAd.

It would be worth taking a flyer on Kopech, whether trying to compete or not. Potential for a high reward.

Finally, an additive move! Michael Kopech. …… He's been oft-injured and rarely good,😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😀😀😀😀

21 hours ago, CRF said:

Let's face it, the only big move they're making...is from the cities, down to Ft Meyers. 

Funny ... but also sad that your prediction might come true!

18 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Well, you enter spring training and hope none of Lopez, Ryna, Jeffers or Larnach go on the injured list. And you hope someone from another team does, so they come calling on Twinsland.

My main reason for trading, say, Lopez, is salary. The Twins can't afford to have Lopez start just 15 games again in 2026. It also hurts his return. If he stays healthy heading towards the trade deadline, or just in April/May, is can bring abck a decent return.

The Twins have no desire, it seems, to extend Jeffers. What $$$ amount would it take? Does Jefers hope he can get 3-5 years once a free agent? Teams will come calling if they lost a catcher in spring training. But the Twins also need to weigh carefully what they can get in return vs. him just walking. I see the Dodgers grabbed Rortvedt, who is making the waiver musical chairs. Too abd they couldn't grab him to stash at AAA.

Ryan is worth a helluva a lot right now. I would worry about attitude as much as injury. How frsutrated will he be only get 2-3 runs of support in a game? If the Twins aren't willing to offer him $120m plys, they need to package him sooner rather than later. It would open the logjam of arms at AAA for sure. 

Larnach, Wallner, Roden, Outman, maybe even Martin, are all replaceable by next season with Gonzales, Jenkins, Rodriguez and even more 4th/5th guys in the wings. Larnach has the most worthg of the bunch, which isn't saying much. Martin brings something to the game that they don't have if he isn't in the lineup.

Bullpen arms. Bring back Coulombe!? The Twins have been very week in picking up ANY minor league free agents of note. Most I wouldn't even give a month at AAA. Finding gems in the coal bin ain't happening in 2026.

Tremendous post, rosterman.  Liked the idea of bringing back Rortvedt.  Recall he was hitting well the first month or two of the season for Tampa, was it last year?  Don't know what happened after that.  Maybe he was dealing with injuries?  Maybe not?  But his return would give the Twins two players from the Middleton, WI area (Verona and Middleton are almost adjacent).  How can you not love that?

Can't believe how everyone has given up on Roden after a handful of at bats followed by a trade/move to another club then an injury.  My only other thought is I believe Martin is becoming a valuable player who can be a big part of a winning team, both on the field and in the batter's box.  Would love to see him starting at least 140 games next year and beyond.  Kind of see him as a lesser version of that left fielder Cleveland has, who's name I can't recall.