Article: Inside, Outside And Truth

[John Bonnes]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2720-Inside-Outside-And-Truth

[Dman]

That is a really nice article. Your take on this resonates with my own. I do think the players are right to some extent a lot of what happens is mental, but you are also correct that training and talent come in to play because the better those things are the better they are able to have success and improve their confidence. I think you are dead on in your analysis but that is just my opinion I am sure others will have a different take.

[Seth Stohs]

That's my whole thing. Age is just one factor in prospect rankings, but it is overemphasized. People develop at different levels. People get opportunities at different times.

 

This is a great article because these are two very good people who are very thoughtful. Talking to Chris Colabello is an experience, and you can't help but pull for him. Gibson is just a tremendous person. And they are both very good baseball players who are capable of helping the Twins.

[oldguy10]

While Chris Colabello may be a good person that does not translate into him being able to help the Twins, I do not think. How many posters agree with Seth's assessment of Chris? To me if and when you put people like this on a MLB roster you are heading for another season of 90 plus losses. Gibson on the other hand has potential to help the team, Colabello does not.

[jokin]

Tremendous article. John is likely to get this one picked up, republished and broadly requoted. He gets to the basic tug of war between the "fantasy" and "reality" sides of baseball analysis, development and predictability. The fairly cold and sterile world of Peter Brand versus the day to day, year to year mental and physical grind, seat-of-the-pants, trial-by-error world of Art Howe. The search for the "Truth" will always remain elusive and never approach "Absolute", given the human dimension.

[Dman]

While Chris Colabello may be a good person that does not translate into him being able to help the Twins, I do not think. How many posters agree with Seth's assessment of Chris? To me if and when you put people like this on a MLB roster you are heading for another season of 90 plus losses. Gibson on the other hand has potential to help the team, Colabello does not.

 

While I agree with you that being a good person does not necessarily translate to helping the Twins there are some things we need to be mindful of when talking about CC. Chris was the MVP of his AAA league last year. He had an amazing season. If CC is as bad as you claim then what does that say about the rest of players in AAA? They must really be bad? I understand that CC's age makes him a tough sell especially for a team looking to the future but I don't think you can just ignore his talent and potential either.

[PseudoSABR]

Really nice article. Sometimes we lose sight of the human susceptibilities in development. I'm glad to hear that Gibson didn't feel worn down or overused.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I do agree with Seth that you want to pull for him and I think Collabello could help us if we pick his spots/at-bats smartly, if the team has useful data to apply to help them pick their spots. I do agree with John too, that just being away from the very top level through the prime years of the 20s is a physiological disadvantage.

 

I agree with the player in the Gibson instance. Gibson's appearances in AAA in 2013 do not signal someone rehabbing an injury. Six innings per start and two complete games. 6 IP per start is what the guys in the majors were averaging. This will be a good year for Gibson. Bring him north!

[Mike Sixel]

so basically, players need to come up to the majors before they are needed, so they can get their feet wet, is that how I should read Gibson's comments? they should maybe come up before they are ready, just to get the human part out of the way? Or maybe I'm just reading it with my lens, my context on the world.

[Marta Shearing]

So is it fair to say that "clutch" players are "clutch" because they are able to conquer their anxiety in "clutch" situations?

[bird]

Nicely articulated, John. I would imagine the least objective party regarding a player's progress would be the player. We outsiders lack the information necessary to gauge the present state of things and to predict the development path, because all we have to go on are some stats and the comments we glean from people with firsthand knowledge and each other. Personally, I discount interpretations and conclusions from players and outsiders.

 

On the other hand, the field staffs' paychecks are based on accurate current assessments and the future progress of the players. They are paid to be objective, and surely account for all those things we outsiders know almost nothing about: personality traits, good and bad, intelligence, internal drive, etc. Unfortunately for us, we only get snippets. Delmon Young's A**hole Quotient was off the charts. Don't you think that privately, his managers and coaches would tell you that this is the single most important factor in his squandering of his talent?

[Dantes929]

Good article. I think athletes at the level generally have a pretty good ego but it is easy to understand a guy like Hicks being overmatched by Verlander and Scherzer early on and then start 2nd guessing himself. I think nerves and anxiety have probably derailed quite a few players careers, especially the marginal ones.

[JB_Iowa]

Thanks for the perspective. Have to wonder if you'd added Aaron Hicks to your interviews if you wouldn't have heard something similar. And Brian Dozier, part 1.

 

Please republish this article or bring it back to the top of the comments when we see the (almost inevitable) struggles of prospects as they come to the ML club over the next year or two. While some may be better able to control the nerves, that would seem to be a pretty common reaction.

[dwintheiser]

Nice article, John. But as a counter-point, I'd like to dig up some ancient wisdom:

 

"No single drop of rain believes it is to blame for the flood."

 

From the perspective of Colabello and Gibson, their approach makes perfect sense -- as you say, they can only be really concerned over factors they can control, and working on those allows them to be productive and perhaps even make progress. They're raindrops, and they exist in their own environments.

 

But as an organization, the Twins need to be concerned with the flood. Because that's real, too.

 

Colabello and Gibson are absolutely data points -- they are who they are and their ceilings and floor as individual players are what they are. But they're not necessarily outliers -- there's no guarantee that, just because Colabello was a AAA MVP last year that he's going to be able to contribute this year. And Gibson might well still be regaining arm strength and re-learning how to pitch with his new arm.

 

Sabermetrics can't tell you exactly what Colabello and Gibson are going to do this year. But it's as good as tool as we have to tell you what they're likely to do this year, and if there are other options likely to do as well or better.

[Dantes929]

So is it fair to say that "clutch" players are "clutch" because they are able to conquer their anxiety in "clutch" situations?

I think it is fair to say but I think it is just scratching the surface. I think you need to conquer your anxiety to perform in the clutch but that doesn't mean you will succeed because there is always the guy on the other side as well and what you do is largely determined by what they do. Also, is clutch determined by hitting the ball hard or by actually getting a hit which are two different things. Of course you also have the situation of two players facing each other who are not able to conquer their anxiety to allow them to play their best but one side always has to win and one loses. Colabello says he didn't conquer his anxiety but he still had 7 homers and some of them were in the "clutch". Kirk Gibson was considered clutch but he is still going to fail against Eckersly way more often than succeed. I think some of it is just happenstance.

[Dantes929]

" To me if and when you put people like this on a MLB roster you are heading for another season of 90 plus losses". I think every roster has a guy like Colabello. A guy that earned his way to the majors by his performance in the minors and then has not succeeded as well as you would wish. Every roster has major league players on it that would not be MVP of AAA if that is where they happened to be playing. I like Colabello at this point just as much as I like Kubel. Whether nerves or happenstance a player may fail in his first stint and then thrive the next opportunity. I don't care if Chris makes the team out of spring training or not but if he plays at AAA and earns his way back to the majors then he deserves his shot whether it is for a 90 loss team or the world champs.

[jimbo92107]

What Gibson said reminded me of early Frank Viola. In his first year he was clearly over-anxious and didn't pitch very well. After he learned to relax, he became Sweet Music.

[Seth Stohs]

While Chris Colabello may be a good person that does not translate into him being able to help the Twins, I do not think. How many posters agree with Seth's assessment of Chris? To me if and when you put people like this on a MLB roster you are heading for another season of 90 plus losses. Gibson on the other hand has potential to help the team, Colabello does not.

 

These are two independent things. He is a good person, but so am I and I can't help the twins. Colabello is a big powerful right-handed bat who put up huge numbers in AAA, in a league that isn't user-friendly. Maybe he won't be a star or maybe even a regular, but he can help an MLB team in a role.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Thanks for the great article John. It's great to get the reminder that we're all human beings and the data can only take you so far. Variables are both obvious and inconspicuous, but they aren't variables to the people whom we write about.

[dougkoebernick]

Roy Hobbs wasn't a young guy either and he hit the stitches off the ball.

[oldguy10]

In what role can Chris Colabello possibly help outside of pinch hitting and DH against southpaws. He assuredly cannot help in his defensive outfield play, can he? Again as I said before and maintain strongly peopling a roster with folks like him guarantees a team totaling 90 loss seasons. I wish Chris well but in Rochester not in Minnesota as that is simply not going to happen. If he were to have had a decent MLB career it would have happened five years ago or so.

[jimv2]

Adding my voice to the chorus--excellent article.

 

But I want to expand on "That projection is a range of possibilities, but it's a statistically backed range. We average them out and derive a destination." This is completely accurate in the sense of how people on the outside tend to behave. But that behavior represents a gross misunderstanding of statistical analysis. It is not statistically valid to assign characterizations of a sample group to any one data point. You can use statistics to predict an average outcome for a group of people. You can use statistics to say for example (I'm making this up) that 90% of pitchers in AAA who strike out less than 7 batters per nine innings will never win more than 1 major league game. But that doesn't mean that it's unlikely that a specifically idientified pitcher in AAA who strikes out less than 7 per 9 will succeed. People throw out statements like "the odds of Bob hitting above .250 are slim" based on some sort of analysis of other players. But it's meaningless, because there aren't a bunch of Bobs. There's just the one, and he could end up anywhere.

 

Saying the same thing more statistically, if batting averages are normally distributed and the population mean is .250, then when estimating the mean of a sample group you can say that you have x% confidence that it will between .250 plus or minus y. The smaller the sample size, the smaller x is and/or the greater y is. And for a sample size of 1, assuming a large population, either x is so small or y is so big that your conclusion is useless. For example, you could say that you're 99% confident that the one person will hit between .000 and .500. But you didn't need statistical analysis to tell you that.

 

A demographer can tell in a group of 10,000 people all the same age, about how many will die this year. But assuming comparable health, s/he has no idea which ones will die. A sabermetrician can tell you of a group of 1000 ballplayers with a given characteristic, how many will make the majors. But s/he can't tell you which ones. Could be any of them. So like a doctor works with people to assess their health, so the coach has to work with each of the players to figure out which ones will make the grade. And even then, neither the doc nor the coach is going to be right 100% of the time.

[Thrylos]

While I agree with you that being a good person does not necessarily translate to helping the Twins there are some things we need to be mindful of when talking about CC. Chris was the MVP of his AAA league last year. He had an amazing season. If CC is as bad as you claim then what does that say about the rest of players in AAA? They must really be bad? I understand that CC's age makes him a tough sell especially for a team looking to the future but I don't think you can just ignore his talent and potential either.

 

You could say the exact same thing about Randy Ruiz as well...

 

just sayin'

[nytwinsfan]

Bonnes, did you major in epistemology or something? This is some profound philosophical ****.

[Riverbrian]

I loved the article because I think about this a lot. I'm into stats but not so much from a projection standpoint.

 

I think the mental part of the game is huge. Put yourself in Colabello's shoes.

 

He's advanced in age so he will only get one or two windows. He has to prove himself with the clock ticking.

 

He earned a major league uniform with his play in AAA but he only got that uniform when Plouffe was placed on the 7 day. He knows his primary skill is his ability to hit the ball a long way.

 

You got 7 days to show something... You are facing the best pitchers in the world for the first time. He knows Morneau is the 1st baseman and he got a job with a 7 day expiration date.

 

He gets 11 at bats and all he wants in life besides health for his family is to make an impression and stay in the majors and... And... His primary skill is hitting the long ball.

 

When you consider all of that... I don't care what age you are... How do you not try to hit a 5 run homer every time you step up to the plate. The coaches will tell him... "Relax it will come" but you are trying to prove you belong and they didn't bring you up to walk or bloop singles.

 

It's my guess why rookies struggle. They are trying to prove they belong. And its hard to prove it by drawing a walk.

 

You gotta be aggressive defensively and on the base paths. But... At the plate... You have to relax. If you don't relax... You swing at crap and if you swing at crap... You hit like crap.

 

If Colabello is given the chance to relax and he actually does relax... He could turn into something and i'm pulling for him.

 

My guess is... His AAA numbers are an example of a relaxed hitter. A guy with a job and a few cookies to swing at. No guaranteed job and less cookies makes it hard.

[Foul Weather Wags]

Great article. Really captured the potential noise. Especially difficult after having interviewed Gibson and Colabello in person. Can't help but wonder how increased access will affect the message.

 

Based on the comments, this article also appears to hold up a mirror to those who read it. Well crafted!

[ND-Fan]

I believe sabermetrics has a pretty important place in baseball it still doesn't determine whole picture of player because with all players there's norm or average over players career but in that career there's year or maybe two he out performs the average of his career. I think position the Twins are in now they are looking at a lot of players hoping to find player that put up bigger numbers for a year or two. They are also trying to do this on cheap and no long term commitment to declining or marginal players. The plan is fill the gap until there talent arrives from the minors. What they are hoping is to put team that could out perform and get near 500 for the season. Also part of this plan is they signed some quality pitchers to keep them close in the games and they may be able to pull off season or two of this until cavalry arrives from the minors. Also these pitchers will provide leadership to young pitchers coming up giving them in future a pretty quality pitching staff.

 

I could also show lots examples of players that statistics showed they were done or not ever be significant player again. One example when I was young was when Twins let go of Jim Kaat to the Whit Sox it looked like his career was about done. Then he had two stellar years for White Sox winning 20 games and if you look at his statics you have agreed with the Twins on getting rid of him. But here he reversed his statics and if were looking at from war perspective he went from negative to positive 7 + in war, lower his ERA, increased his strike out rate back to near his peak years. I think I could also find many more like this of players that broke the normand another I would guess would be David Ortiz. The Twins are hoping they can find a player like this help them to become respectable for the coming year.

[Sleestax]

That is a really nice article. Your take on this resonates with my own. I do think the players are right to some extent a lot of what happens is mental, but you are also correct that training and talent come in to play because the better those things are the better they are able to have success and improve their confidence. I think you are dead on in your analysis but that is just my opinion I am sure others will have a different take.

 

 

Xanax or Clonazapam in small dose.

[Paul]

Nice article John. I thought it was one of the most insightful things I've read on this interweb thing in some time... until I got to your last sentence. "

I suspect the truth lies somewhere in between." (I'm bettin' you couldn't resist turning that phrase.) I think without question both perspectives are the truth. And further, it can be successfully argued that BOTH viewpoints are most definitely subjective. We all see this beautiful immense diamond we call life, but we all only see the facets in our field of vision.

[cmathewson]

Nice take John. To me, it points out how little we know when we project players and how much of our opinions are dependent on the experts (scouts).

 

We can use PitChFX data to test Gibson's claims. He did indeed pitch up more in his later starts. Why? My hypothesis is he wasn't getting the low strike. I watched several games early after his call up and the umps just didn't call the sinker at the knees. It reminded me of Hicks' debut. He had strikes called on him that were in the other batters' box. After that, he expanded the zone and got himself out. In Gibson's case, he would fall behind when they didn't call the knee-high sinker, and bring it up a few inches, where it would get hit.