Twins turn attention to Phil Hughes?

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According to ESPN'S Jerry Crasnick a source tells him after signing Nolasco the Twins are likely to turn their attention to Hughes. Darren Wolfson reported that his camp loves Target Field and he would be willing to sign here if the money is right. George King reported Hughes camp is looking for a two year deal and that the Angels, Twins, Mariners, and Royals have shown interest.

 

Should the Twins sign Hughes?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/phil-hughes-in-line-for-two-year-deal.html

[johnnydakota]

While Phil Hughes is my pick to click, or to have the Korreia affect , (bigger stadium and not having to face the beasts in the east 72 times,) It would be nicer to have Garza and Kazmir,even if those 2 are no locks to be healthy.

[twinscowboysbulls]

If we nab Hughes on a 2 year 20 million deal with option year, I'd be okay with it as long as we were going to nab a Johan or Gavin Floyd and Salty.

[howieramone1406390264]

Hughes for 2 works.

[drivlikejehu]

Hughes worries me from a durability and performance standpoint, but the question marks will keep his price down and he is young for a free agent. The key in my opinion is whether the deal would include a team-friendly option year, to cash in if Hughes does actually put it together finally.

[Otto von Ballpark]

MLBTR predicted a 1/8 make-good contract for Hughes. i'd take that, although I am also intrigued by their predicted 2/16 for Kazmir (and they actually guessed that the Twins might sign him in their predictions).

 

They were fairly close on Nolasco's -- predicted 3/36 but did talk about the possibility of the 4th year and the Edwin Jackson contract (4/52) as his "ceiling".

[Brock Beauchamp]

In a word, hells yes.

[snepp]

In a word, hells yes.

 

California math approved.

[John Bonnes]

If we nab Hughes on a 2 year 20 million deal with option year, I'd be okay with it as long as we were going to nab a Johan or Gavin Floyd and Salty.

 

Best news: it looks like he's not expecting more than 2/15.

 

 

i LOVE the idea of Hughes:

a) getting out of New York &

swapping Yankee Stadium for Target Field.

 

id be all over getting him at that money. And that's from a guy who thinks Yankees prospects are almost always overhyped. And I'm all over a 2-year deal, with only one caveat: it worries me a little that HE doesn't want a one-year deal.

[JP3700]

Best news: it looks like he's not expecting more than 2/15.

 

it worries me a little that HE doesn't want a one-year deal.

 

 

I completely agree. I thought I was the only one that caught this. My biggest issue with Hughes is confidence. I watched several of his starts towards the end of the season, and he just looked beat down. You would think a confident Hughes would go into this off-season looking for a one year deal to establish value and re-enter the 2015 class at age 28 looking for a Nolasco or better type deal.

 

With all that being said, I'd still make a run at him. After the Nolasco signing, they should be looking for upside and Hughes has some. Liriano took a two year deal when his value was low and he ended up working out. Perhaps Hughes just needs that change of scenery to re-establish his confidence and we get a steal like Frankie.

[Jdosen]

I'm leaning towards being in favor of a Hughes signing if the duration and dollars are right. I'd be alright with taking a chance on him for 2/20, but not super enthusiastic.

 

Everyone keeps mentioning that he is a perfect match with Target Field because he is always falling victim to the HR, but per Fangraphs, his career HR/FB rate is 10.2% and last year in Pinstripes, he posted an 11.1% HR/FB. I think that sentiment is overblown. On the other hand, over the course of his career, his FIP is a full run lower on the road than it has been at Yankee Stadium--4.80 at home to 3.78 on the road. I just contradicted myself. I feel like Dan Dierdorf.

 

Another factor to consider is the defense behind him in spacious Target Field. I think his performance could have a lot of variability depending on what defensive outfield the Twins trot out there next year. I think he would fare just fine with a defense of Hicks and Buxton occupying two of the spots, but could be in big trouble if we are seeing the lumbering tandem of Willingham and Arcia in the corners.

[DaveW]

/Fap fap fap

[Twins Twerp]

Happy mother****ing thanksgiving. Best gift ever (could be). Nolasco, Hughes, and Navarro would be awesome. Substitute Salty for Navarro and will do dirty/unthinkable HBO things.

[Dman]

I like any decent or potentially decent pitcher on a two year deal for the Twins. If he does well and the team stinks then we can trade him for prospects. If he stinks its a bummer but doesn't hurt us financially down the road. In many ways it is a win, win considering the pitching we currently have.

[Jim H]

I don't really have anything against signing Hughes, especially if its only one or two years. I do think the advantage of having Target Field over Yankee Stadium as your home field is overblown. Hughes may be able to put up slightly better numbers by switching home fields, but that advantage goes to his opposing pitchers as well who are also pitching in Target Field instead of Yankee Stadium.

 

The bottom line is Hughes will have to pitch better than he has the last couple years if he is going to be any bargain. That could happen, he is still young, throws hard and has pretty good stuff. But it is no guarantee either, which why he is available and probably not going to be offered a big contract. Maybe getting out of New York which has all sort of pressures not found in Minnesota would help.

 

He seems a little less likely than many of the available free agents to be an injury risk. That is something. I wouldn't expect him to be a big contributor, but I would of said the same about Liriano last year.

[Reider]

I'd be fine with the Twins signing him to a 2 year deal. Sometimes players just need a change of scenery. And considering he's only 28 and we've seen guys like Liriano turn it around, it wouldn't hurt to at least give him an opportunity. If he shows any sort of improvement, we win, and if he doesn't, then we can replace him in two years anyways. Either way, it's not an overly risky signing and hopefully provides us with more stability in the starting rotation.

 

In the big picture, we need to take some pressure off of our bullpen. It would be nice to get a guy like Garza, but if it comes down to it, I'd rather take Hughes over a AAA pitcher. If Hughes truly is excited about pitching in Target Field, I think that is a very good sign. People tend to perform better in environments they are happy with.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't really have anything against signing Hughes, especially if its only one or two years. I do think the advantage of having Target Field over Yankee Stadium as your home field is overblown. Hughes may be able to put up slightly better numbers by switching home fields, but that advantage goes to his opposing pitchers as well who are also pitching in Target Field instead of Yankee Stadium.

 

That's a pretty superficial analysis of both Hughes and Yankee Stadium.

 

Hughes is basically the WORST kind of pitcher for that stadium. He's a righty, which means lefties have an advantage against him. Which means lefties also get to take advantage of that stadium's ridiculously short RF porch. While not horrible at missing bats, he's not particularly good at it either so that doesn't help him out.

 

And Hughes is a flyball dominant pitcher. Of course he's going to get killed in New York. He has almost the exact opposite profile of the guy you want pitching in that stadium... Everything about that place is working against him.

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

I would love this. Have to sign him for 3 years though, 2 is too few.

[old nurse]

Why Hughes would look for a 2 year deal is to compare him to Kazmir. Kazmir reestablished himself this year and is looking at 2/16. One year of good production is not going to get you cashed in. It will take 2 years. Hughes would still be under 30 and in line for the monster contract.

[jcphitman]

I make no qualms about it ... I want Hughes. I want him over Arroyo. The only pitcher over Hughes I want more is Garza, but getting Hughes cheaper (and he is younger) helps. If he wants two or three years, do it!

 

Tomorrow (Black Friday) is my b-day ... that be an awesome gift! Keep the spending happen, TR.

[Trevor0333]

That's a pretty superficial analysis of both Hughes and Yankee Stadium.

 

Hughes is basically the WORST kind of pitcher for that stadium. He's a righty, which means lefties have an advantage against him. Which means lefties also get to take advantage of that stadium's ridiculously short RF porch. While not horrible at missing bats, he's not particularly good at it either so that doesn't help him out.

 

And Hughes is a flyball dominant pitcher. Of course he's going to get killed in New York. He has almost the exact opposite profile of the guy you want pitching in that stadium... Everything about that place is working against him.

 

Comerica & US Cellular say hello...

[Trevor0333]

Im ok with Hughes, he is an upgrade & should be a little better outside Yankee stadium but I do think so many games in Comerica & US Cellular negate some of that.

 

I'd preffer Arroyo or Capuano slightly but if going after Hughes allows them to add a bat I can see how that would work.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Comerica & US Cellular say hello...

 

The Twins play 81 games in Target Field.

 

The Twins play a combined 18-20 games in Comerica and US Cellular.

[EephusKnuckler]

I'd rather have Kazmir, if we're talkin 2 year deals. We need a decent leftie in the rotation, right? He could probably even be had for less than Hughes. I haven't heard a peep about him in free agency, though. Has he been linked to any teams?

 

I'd be fine with Hughes, I'm just happy that the team is rumored to still be looking for another arm. Two new starters for the 2014 rotation means this team might have a shot at not being god-awful.

[Dilligaf69]

Refresh my memory but isn't Hughes hurt alot??? Why do I remember that, maybe I'm thinking of someone else. I do know he's inconsistent but I'd take him for 1 or 2 yr cash friendly deal.

[TheLeviathan]

I'd have no problem going three years. He may get hurt or underperform, but he represents maybe the best chance to overachieve on the return on investment out of any starting pitcher on the market.

 

Let's hope these rumors are accurate.

[Brandon]

If we get Hughes on a 2 year 16 million contract and Salty on a 3 year 27-30 million that may leave enough money available to wait out the market and get a 3rd pitcher at a lower price like Capuano for 1 and 6-8 million or Arroyo on a 2 year 16 -18 million deal. Or some other pitcher on a discounted rate which is probably a little overkill on the staff but makes for a good problem to have.

[Oxtung]

Hughes does little for me. He is a back of the rotation starter that shouldn't find the rotation in the playoffs. The Twins have plenty of guys to fill that role, including Mr. Correia. If the Twins are going to sign another pitcher it needs to be someone with upside. Kazmir would fit the bill nicely. Josh Johnson was my first choice but that ship has sailed.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Comerica & US Cellular say hello...

 

Approximately half his starts will be at Target Canyon - he could be a good change-of-scene candidate.

[shs_59]

I'd Be Ok With Hughes for something like

 

2 yrs , $ 15 M

 

or 1 Yr 7-8 Million.

 

But I'd rather have AJ Burnett

 

Burnett's FIP and XFIP last year, not to mention his K rate Were sooooo ridiculously good.

 

HOPEFULLY he's got 1 good year, like that, left in him.

 

Burnett on a 1 or 2 yr deal at almost any dollar figure I'd take over Phill Hughes

 

AJ Burnett is greater than : Garza, Jiminez, M. Tanaka? , E. Santana, T. Hudson, R. Nolasco and even Hughes, Kazmir, and Arroyo.

 

his K per 9 (~9.5) , K per Walk and his OPP batting average: 228 ...... are all so much better than these other guys (for the most part)

 

PLUS his low 3 ERA (3.38) was HIGHER than his fip and xfip, basically meaning Burnett may have gotten a little UNLUCKY last year. Burnett, similarly to Nolasco basically walks nobody.

 

I know it was the NL with the pirates. But AJ Burnett on a 1 yr. 14-15 Million dollar deal WOULD BE Great by me. Not sure if AJ would want to be a Twin....

 

He'd instantly become our ace.