JP3700

This article gives you an idea of Price's trade value. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/david-prices-trade-value/ Boston would have to include some significant talent or eat quite a bit of salary.

Here are more accurate projected arbitration salaries. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2015.html No chance they non-tender Fien at $1.1M. Nunez I can see being non-tendered. I would non-tender him. I just don't know if the Twins will. But even if somehow they did non-tender both of them, you would still be over $100M as you would only save $1.3M. As for it not being long term, you would have almost $70M locked up in 5 players for the next three years. That doesn't leave much flexibility unless they plan to increase payroll significantly. You'd really have to hit on almost all of your league minimum players and hope that the 5 players taking up about 70% of your payroll produce.

Simple and reasonable, although I'm not a fan of either player. The payroll figure is off though. If they tender Plouffe, Milone, Schafer, Nunez and Fien and non-tender Swarzak and Duensing, payroll would be at about $70M before counting pre-arb players. These two signings would take them over $100M. It's something they can afford, but you did mention being realistic with payroll.

This off-season has been a crazy one. Many of the big name free agents are already off the board and we're not yet at the winter meetings. The number of significant trades has also been interesting. Download attachment: sudburymariners-582x436.jpg The Mariners just signed Robinson Cano to a 10 year, $240 million contract. This was a curious move because they are coming off a 71 win season. Pitchers Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, along with third baseman Kyle Seager, are the only impact players on their team. So what's their plan? Even with the Cano signing, the M's still have about $40-50 million dollars to spend. They also have plenty of young players with upside.... Unfortunately, with a narrow window, they can't afford to wait for those players to develop. The M's have been linked to David Price, to form a trio that would compete with any front three in baseball. Their other needs include a couple right handed power bats, a back of the rotation innings eater and a closer. That sounds like a pretty good trade partner. Let's start with something like this.... Trade Glen Perkins, Josh Willingham and Kevin Correia for SS Chris Taylor, RHP Brandon Maurer, UT Stefen Romero and RHP Tom Wilhelmsen. This proposed trade fills several needs for the Mariners, while only increasing their payroll by $16M. This leaves them with money to acquire Price and another bat like Kendrys Morales or Nelson Cruz. At the very least, it gives them another option and trading partner. From the Twins' perspective, Perkins is obviously the biggest piece in this trade. Glen is one of the ten best relievers in baseball, with or without the "closer" tag. Perkins would have much more value to the M's and the fact that he will make roughly $12M in the next three years, makes him one of the bigger bargains in baseball. Willingham and Correia are both players who have one year left on their contracts. With Cano and King Felix eating up $50M for years to come, the M's will look for as much financial flexibility as possible. Hammer is coming off a down, injury-riddled season. Although I hate the thought of selling low, I feel supply and demand will increase his value. Right-handed power is in short supply and Josh also fills their need for a corner OF. Correia would be a perfect fit as an innings eater in that ballpark. Now for what the Twins are getting. None of these proposed guys are can't miss players, but they all have upsides to be useful major league players. With the M's pitching depth and a crowded middle infield, they are all players they can afford to trade. Chris Taylor is the key piece for me in this trade. He is currently the M's minor league player of the year. Known for his glove, he has great hands and feet. He also has an average to above average arm. So far, his offense has kept up with his defense. At age 22, Chris spent 2013 at A+ and AA putting up a .314/.409/.455 slash line with 38 stolen bases. He has the potential to be an everyday shortstop who gets on base, provides good defense and steals 25+ bases. The other pieces are interchangeable. The M's have plenty of young talent. So instead of Maurer and Romero, it could be some other combination. Wilhelmsen is a deal sweetener; you can also replace him with another prospect. The Mariners have a limited budget to work with, they have needs to fill and they have the prospects to trade. Now is the time for the Twins to strike and maximize the value received on our players. Click here to view the article

It is now 2014 and Stephen Drew is still a free agent. There has been speculation regarding the Twins making a run at Drew. Some are in favor of a possible signing, while some are against it. This is a common theme when speculating on transactions. Everyone is going to have his opinion. Here is my case for signing Stephen Drew. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: Drew.jpeg More information on the stats used below can be found in the Glossary section of Fangraphs.com. Offensive Upside Stephen Drew was a good offensive player in 2013, putting up a wRC+(weighted runs created, normalized for park and league effects) of 109. That's before considering that he is a shortstop. In 2013 the league average wRC+ for shortstops was 85. To put that into perspective, his offensive production was similar to Dustin Pedroia (115 wRC+) compared to the league average second baseman (91 wRC+) and Allen Craig (135 wRC+) compared to the league average first baseman (110 wRC+). While that gives you an idea of how good his offense was for a shortstop, it would be more helpful to compare him to the player he'd be replacing. Pedro Florimon had a 68 wRC+ in 2013. So Drew was essentially 41% better at creating runs than Florimon. To give you an idea of how much better 41% is, I used two other full time Twins players to help illustrate how big of an upgrade Drew would have been over Florimon. Florimon wRC+: 68 Drew wRC+: 109 Dozier wRC+: 101 Cano wRC+: 142 Plouffe wRC+: 93 Longoria wRC+: 133 If you are skeptical that this was a career year for Drew, and thus an outlier, this was the fourth season that Drew put up a 109 wRC+ or higher. Steady Defense While Florimon is one of the better defensive shortstops in the league, Drew is a good defensive shortstop in his own right. Here is how Drew's defense has rated over the last five years using UZR/150 (ultimate zone rating, over 150 games) and DRS (defensive runs saved). UZR/150: 4.0 DRS: 3 Using 4000 innings as the threshold, a total of only 10 shortstops rated above zero in both defensive metrics during that time frame. Overall Player Using the same five year time frame, here are Drew's overall numbers. wRC+: 98 UZR/150: 4.0 DRS: 3 During that span, only three other shortstops met or exceeded these standards: Tulowitzki, (Yunel) Escobar, and Peralta. In 2013, once again, only three shortstops met these standards. Tulowitzki, (Yunel) Escobar and Hardy. Health Concerns Health should be a concern with every player, but it seems to be overblown with Drew. He has been tagged with words like injury-prone and fragile, which doesn't seem to be fair. When you take out his flukey 2011 ankle injury (broken bone and torn ligaments from a slide in to home), Drew averaged 142 games played in his other five full seasons in the majors. In those five seasons he has been on the DL three times for a total of 54 days. Those three DL stints were caused by two hamstring strains and a concussion suffered from being hit in the head by a pitch. So other than a couple of freak injuries, he's been quite durable. 2015 Class There has been talk about shortstops who may be available through free agency next offseason. So I wanted to compare them to Drew noting their ages when hitting free agency, along with their offense and defense over the past five seasons. I didn't include Ramirez and Jeter because they aren't realistic options due to many factors. [TABLE=width: 500] [/TD][TD]Age wRC+ UZR/150 DRS Drew 31 98 4.0 3 Cabrera 29 107 -10.8 -19 Lowrie 31 108 -4.4 -28 Hardy 32/33 92 9.3 31 Rollins 36 92 4.6 -29 [/TABLE] All things considered, Drew looks to be the most attractive player. The Conclusion Other than giving up a second round draft pick, all things point to Drew being a great signing. He is a good player who would provide a significant upgrade at a position at which the Twins lack options. He would also provide balance to an infield (Dozier, Plouffe) that struggles against right-handed pitching. There seems to be a thin market for Drew with the Red Sox and Mets being the two teams most often mentioned. There have been reports that teams are not willing to go past two years, so this would be a good time for the Twins to jump in and offer Drew three years, $30-33 million. It would be nice to have another proven position player alongside Mauer to help with the infusion of youth coming up in the next couple years. Especially a shortstop. Click here to view the article

I think part of the disconnect is the actual figures. Singleton only received $10 million guaranteed, not $30 million. Arcia would take $30 million in a heartbeat. Starling Marte only got $31 million over six years with 1+ year of service time. Which is what Arcia would have at the end of this season.

Sano, Rosario and Meyer are the locks. Several relievers like Achter(again), Cole Johnson and Tyler Jones are possible. Lester Oliveros is someone to look at since he still has an option. Sean Gilmartin is pitching well so he will likely be added. Also Levi Michael, Alex Wimmers and Niko Goodrum are possibilities depending how they finish the year.

Pinto had an .805 OPS when he was playing everyday. He was producing. Tonight will only be his fourth start in 2 1/2 weeks. His OPS has dropped to .767 while Suzuki is at .748. As for the question, Suzuki has a chance. His competition is Perez and Gomes if Wieters is out. Although if Pinto was playing everyday as he should be, Pinto would have had a good shot as well.

1. He just had knee surgery this off-season. He also plays baseball, a sport where injuries often happen, especially as you age. The team friendly deal was already in place. They just added $10M for 1 year or $16M for two years. 2. Just cause a few players beat the odds doesn't make it less likely for a player to decline as they age. 3. Nathan has been elite for a decade and is coming off of a 1.39 ERA while showing no signs of decline. He was also a free agent. The Twins had control over Perkins for the next three years to talk extension. I'm fine with this. I hope the Twins extend a lot of their young, core players when the time comes. I just felt this was unnecessary from the team's point of view. Kimbrel filed for $9M in arbitration. If he won his case he would have made close to $40M in his three years of arbitration if he continued to perform like he has. He signed for $42M for four years with a club option. So his contract was very club friendly. At the end of the day, even if it was unnecessary from the Twins point of view, the deal is fine. It won't make or break the organization. I like Perkins, I'm glad he's a Twin and I'm happy for him. I hope he continues to be an excellent reliever.

The contract is fair if you just look at the overall figures. It actually is a steal. But you have to factor in that they had two years of control left with about $8M of guaranteed money and an option at $4.5M. Here are possible scenarios: He suffers a catastrophic injury or completely falls off then you just guaranteed him $14M+ that you didn't need to. He declines through age and injury then you have given him $10M more for one additional season of control and will likely decline the 2018 option for his age 35 season. He continues to be very good and you've paid him $16M+ for the two additional seasons of control you've locked up. Only 13 relievers have ever signed a multi-year contract with an AAV of $8M+ and only 6 relievers will make over $8M this year. So it's not like those two additional years are at a discount even if best case scenario happens. Why not just play out the contract and if scenario 3 happens, you can then talk extension in 2016 once you've picked up his option. A 2 year, $16M extension, which is what they've essentially given him, would be fair. If not then you have $16M to sign another elite FA reliever or if one of your other relievers can step in to that role then you can spend that money to plug another hole on the roster. Just seemed unnecessary to me. All risk, with little reward.

I like Perkins a lot, but I'm not a huge fan of the extension. The Twins already had him under control through the 2016 season for about $12.5M. Roughly $4M for the next two seasons and a $4.5M club option for the 2016 season. So they essentially just added close to $10M in new money for a reliever and his age 34 season. The 2018 club option is nice, but I just don't see much upside in this move. If everything works out they get him for about $16M+ for those two additional seasons. So best case scenario, they paid market value. Guess we just hope for best case scenario.

Fryer is also my irrational favorite Twin. I even wrote a blog about him a few months ago http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php/4676-Finding-Value-Eric-Fryer. In 2011 Fryer was actually promoted to AAA for 21 games prior to getting called up to the majors. He was hitting .262/.377/.446 in AAA at the time. When he got called up he had 29 PA in almost six weeks before being sent back down to AAA. When he got sent back down he hit .132/.281/.151 in the final 17 games of the AAA season. It was probably tough to play every day, then see 5 plate appearances a week and go back to playing every day. Or perhaps I'm just making an irrational excuse for my favorite Twin. As for 2012, I had read that he was battling a shoulder injury all year.

My prediction is that Diamond wins the fifth spot. As for Swarzak being in the rotation, I would do the opposite and put him into higher leverage innings out of the bullpen. He was devastating against right handed batters last year. [TABLE=width: 500] 4.56 K/BB 57.0 GB% .540 OPS against 2.02 FIP [/TABLE] He doesn't have a weapon against left handed batters so he's more exposed as a starter and his fastball/curve plays up out of the pen. He might be able to add a tick or two on the fastball as well in shorter outings.

Lost in a miserable 96 loss season was the Minnesota Twins bullpen and how good they were. How good were they you ask? This is how they ranked in the AL in some major categories. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] IP 1st ERA 5th WHIP 3rd K/BB 5th Opponent OPS 5th [/TABLE] Despite being overused and leading the league in innings pitched by a significant margin, the Twins bullpen ranked in the top 5 in the AL in four major categories used in judging performance. That's the good news. Some even better news is how much better they can be if used more efficiently. The Closer: Glen Perkins We all know how good Perkins is. One of the top 10 relievers in the game, Perkins has been dominant since transitioning to the bullpen in 2011. Here are his numbers in the last three seasons. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [/TD] K% BB% K/BB WHIP FIP ERA Overall 28.4% 6.7% 4.23 1.06 2.71 2.45 Vs. RHB 29.3% 6.9% 4.23 1.10 3.00 - Vs. LHB 26.9% 6.3% 4.24 0.99 2.18 - [/TABLE] Dominant against both right handed and left handed batters, Perkins is entrenched as the Twins' closer. And we all should be okay with that. The "RH Specialists" : Casey Fien, Jared Burton and Anthony Swarzak Okay, okay I couldn't think of anything better than "RH Specialists", but that's what these three should be. Burton and Fien have both spent time as set up guys for Perkins and Swarzak was used as a long man in 2013. Although they all did a fine job in their roles, they all really excel when facing right handed batters. Here are their numbers facing right handed batters. I used the last two seasons for Burton and Fien. I only used 2013 for Swarzak since that was his first full year of being in the bullpen. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] K% BB% K/BB WHIP FIP Burton 22.3% 5.1% 4.33 0.88 3.22 Fien 28.6% 4.4% 6.50 0.95 2.51 Swarzak 20.4% 4.5% 4.56 1.05 2.02 [/TABLE] The LOOGYs : Brian Duensing and Caleb Thielbar We all know about Duensing's troubles against right handed batters going back to his days as a starter. Last season he got to solely focus on coming out of the pen and although he ran into some bad luck (.400 BABIP), he continued to show that he can dominate left handed batters. Here were his 2013 numbers against them. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] K% BB% K/BB WHIP FIP Duensing 27.3% 5.3% 5.14 1.45 2.75 [/TABLE] Caleb Thielbar had an outstanding rookie season putting up a sparkling 1.76 ERA. Although he may have been a little lucky against right handed batters, he dominated left handed batters. Here were his 2013 numbers against them. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [TD]K% BB% K/BB WHIP FIP Thielbar 28.1% 4.9% 5.75 0.66 2.69 [/TABLE] Conclusion I would personally like to see the Twins eliminate the "set up man" and use these five non-Perkins relievers according to matchups. With an improved starting rotation, the Twins should be able to limit the bullpen's usage while maximizing each pitcher's strengths. As good as they were in 2013, the Twins bullpen could be even better in 2014 (if used properly).

I had already mentioned that it's a small sample. Those MLB numbers include his five starts and the minor league numbers are of him as a starter. The numbers I posted are strictly as a reliever against LHB. As I mentioned, perhaps his stuff plays up in the bullpen. Maybe between their scouts and their video of him, the Twins see something that could make him an effective reliever. I don't know much of anything about the guy, but looking at the numbers I found that might be something the Twins might like. Either way, it's really nothing to go too worked up about.

Yeah, I'd say the price tag is going to be the big question here. Last year around this time (before Diaz was busted for lying about his age) reports had a Twins source saying "The projected money is getting out of hand" in regards to Diaz. I haven't seen or found any projections, but I'd guess it would be somewhere in the Alexander Guerrero range. Diaz put up similar (slightly better) numbers to Guerrero in their age 21 seasons. Guerrero got $7 million per, but is three years older. So maybe somewhere in the six year, $42 million range. I'd do it due to the upside, but I'm not sure if the Twins would be willing to risk that much money on an unproven player.

I think the Twins see something they like. Working out of the bullpen in the majors for the first time last year, he faced 25 LHB. They hit .182/.280/.227 and struck out 32% of the time. Small sample, but perhaps his stuff plays up out of the pen. He's 25 and has an option remaining. I don't see any downside.

From what I know, contracts received through the arbitration process aren't guaranteed. If the player is released prior to the season, the club only owes the player 30-45 of his salary, depending when he was released. So if he is released, I believe he would become a free agent and the Royals would have to pay 30 days of the $3.5 million he was owed.

I believe the Twins would be fifth as they use league wide standings from the previous season. I'm a little bit curious as to why the Royals were unable to find any value for him. Especially considering articles and reports that there were/are interested teams. Perhaps it's a testament to his perceived value across the league. I don't see the downside in claiming him. It's just money at this point and they have the need and an available roster spot.

Bonifacio isn't a free agent. There are several teams who are interested in his services. Most of them being contenders. Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Dodgers, and a few others. If it was only the $3 million, I'd say it would be fine as he'd possibly be a marginal upgrade. But I wouldn't give up anything of value for him, which is likely what it would take.

Here is my top 30 list: 1. Byron Buxton 2. Miguel Sano 3. Alex Meyer 4. Kohl Stewart 5. Eddie Rosario 6. Jose Berrios 7. Jorge Polanco 8. Josmil Pinto 9. Lewis Thorpe 10. Trevor May 11. Max Kepler (++) Maintained a good IsoD and IsoP in a down year. With some better health and better luck, could be in line for a breakout year. 12. Felix Jorge (+++) K% has gone up every year, BB% has gone down every year. Could crack some top 100 lists with a good year. 13. Stephen Gonsalves 14. Travis Harrison 15. Danny Santana 16. Ryan Eades 17. Stuart Turner 18. Kennys Vargas 19. Michael Tonkin 20. Adam Walker 21. Miguel Sulbaran 22. Amaurys Minier 23. Yorman Landa (+) Nasty stuff. Ground ball machine that can miss some bats. BB% has gone down every year. High risk, high reward. 24. Fernando Romero 25. Taylor Rogers 26. Randy Rosario 27. Niko Goodrum 28. Mason Melotakis 29. Zach Jones 30. Sean Gilmartin

His discrepancy in WAR is heavily weighted by how his defense was measured those years. In his two superstar years he was out of this world good defensively. In his down years he was a negative defender. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, so it all balances out. He was probably closer to league average his down years and just a star his two breakout years. Either way, I'd take the total value anyway I can get it. Whether it be a consistent 2+ WAR a year or two superstar level years mixed in with some mediocre years. The Diamondbacks got 14.7 WAR over his 6+ years of team control. I'd take that with just about any prospect.

Colon last two years: Home: 3.03 ERA Away: 2.95 ERA He's also going to the NL, another pitcher friendly park and will have three center fielders roaming the outfield. He's old and is due for some regression to the mean, but I doubt the Mets will be trying to dump him by June. Edit: Sorry for the double post on the stats. Tobi posted a few minutes before me.

I agree that Young has more power. That's why I had Hicks' isoP at .160 in my projection compared to Young's .196 career isoP. If that projection holds true, once you factor in park adjustment and run scoring environment, they'd come out to be similar players.

Shouldn't be discouraged. Chris Young was/is an above average baseball player. Perhaps he is in decline, but his last six years he's been worth 13.7 WAR. I'd take that kind of value out of Hicks.