JP3700

Pass on the proven MLB player because it's comparable to signing an unproven international player..... So you can use that money to sign an unproven international player.

I'm not sure it's fair to set aside the yeah buts, and then compare him to a player coming off of a PED suspension. I'm also not sure it's fair to imply someone is injury prone from a couple of freak injuries. Shouldn't Drew get credit for the 143, 147, 128, 147 prior to the ankle injury that cost him half of 2011 and 2012? Injuries happen. Like bilateral leg weakness and foul tips to the head. Or in Drew's case, a slide into home plate and getting drilled in the head by a pitch. I'd say that this list is more reason for the Twins to sign Drew.

Those are all good points but my response was to the thought that Drew would hurt the team. Considering past performance, age and contract figures, it's much more likely that Drew earns his contract than Nolasco does his. ERA+ in the 90s have some value, but at the back end of a rotation on a winning team, and don't usually cost $12M a year.

From recent reports I've read, three years seems to be his ceiling. That's why I think he would be a good sign. He'd be coming at a good value. What was the floor coming into the offseason looks to be his ceiling now. If Peralta got 4/53, Drew at 3/33 looks to be a bargain.

Nolasco is older, got more years, and more money than Drew will. Career ERA+ of 94, coming off of his best year since 2008, where he was.. league average. Why is he less likely to hurt the team? Here's a comparison of Drew, Garza and Nolasco. All three players entered the league in 2008. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [/TD][TD]Career WAR 2013 WAR (Likely) Contract Drew (31) 16.1 3.1 3 years, $30M Garza (30) 14.8 1.4 4 years, $60M Nolasco (31) 10.8 1.8 4 years, $49M [/TABLE] The projection on Drew is likely close to the ceiling on the contract he'd get. The projection on Garza is likely the floor. Ellsbury got 150+ million and his OPS dropped by over 200 points against lefties. Choo got 130 million and his OPS dropped by almost 400 points against lefties. Left handed batters generally don't hit lefties well. As Brock pointed out, Drew is on the valuable side of the platoon. Drew also still brings value on defense. He's not a one dimensional player. Here's an excerpt from an article written about Drew during the world series: "Drew has overall been a good defensive shortstop this season and this series he's been exceptional, probably saving a run or two single-handedly. Take the leaping catch on a line drive pictured above from Game 5, a sick glove-scoop in Game 4 or any number of rangy plays -- whether charging weak grounders, going up the middle or into the hole -- he finishes with ease. He makes the difficult play look routine." Move him down in the line up or give him a day off against the occasional left handed starter. He's still a valuable player.

I'm curious as to why you think these things. Especially the second part. Considering his best season as a pro was on a 65 win team.

So you don't want to replace a 27 year old with zero track record of success, yet you want to find a CF when we have two top prospects coming up in that position? I'm curious how cost benefit analysis determined that? All shortstops have to hit as well. In what world is Drew not a better baseball player than Florimon? Florimon is a 27 year old who put up a .675 OPS in the minors and you feel he has a higher ceiling? By age 27 Drew had already put up 3 separate seasons of .800+ OPS in the majors. So Drew only hits for a better average, draws more walks and hits more doubles, triples, and home runs. You imply that we should see improvement from Florimon. Here's his numbers last year. [TABLE=width: 500] 1st half .636 OPS 21.1 K% 2nd half .576 OPS 32.4 K% [/TABLE]

I agree, but at least Piazza looks close enough to eventually get in. Edgar Martinez put up a 147 OPS+ for a longer period than Piazza and he barely received 25%. Tim Raines should have already been in years ago. Barry Larkin is in and Alan Trammell is still on the ballot getting 20%? All crazy to me.

I'm not sure where I mentioned anything about sample size. I understand that you should use at least a three year sample for all three metrics stated, not just UZR. I was just stating that as an individual defensive metric, I feel UZR is the most accurate. Given a proper sample size. The discussion was on WAR and fangraphs uses UZR as their defensive metric. They were comparing WAR totals and I was explaining the gap between Fangraphs and BR. As I stated, when comparing defensive metrics, you should always look at all three metrics. It's a given that you should look at a proper sample size to truly judge their true talent level. In this case when comparing year by year WAR totals, you only have that one year to compare. How does it prohibit the Twins from getting someone better later? And who is this someone better? Be careful. Iglesias played most of those games at third base. He had 83 PA at SS with the Red Sox compared to Drew's 501. Drew's wRC+ was 109 and the team's shortstop wRC+ was 107. Pretty sure Drew led the way.

Both versions of WAR place equal value on defense. They just use different metrics in their evaluation. The reason why rWAR rates Florimon higher is because they use TZ and DRS as their defensive metric. DRS loves Florimon. fWAR likes Drew more because they use UZR as their metric. UZR prefers Drew to Florimon. Hence the gap in WAR. With defensive metrics you usually want to account for all three, as they are all viable (although I prefer UZR). So the truth is likely somewhere in the middle. Drew was likely worth 3.2 - 3.3 WAR and Florimon about 1.7 WAR.

Here are the five playoff teams in the AL and their offensive output from the SS position, along with where the Twins stood. [TABLE=width: 500] [/TD][TD]wRC+ (AL Ranking) Red Sox (97-65) 107 (1st) A's (96-66) 105 (2nd) Tigers (93-69) 98 (6th) Indians (92-70) 89 (7th) Rays (92-71) 100 (3rd) Twins (66-96) 70 (11th) [/TABLE] Not surprisingly, the two best teams in the league got the most offense from their shortstop position. Including the Stephen Drew led Red Sox coming in first. Not one playoff team was below league average at the position. The Twins were 15% below league average. I'd say that's a good spot to upgrade.

Great stuff Parker, as always. As the league adjusts to him, Dozier is going to have to show that he can adjust as well. If he can continue being near league average at the plate, his defense makes him a 3-4 win player. I'm a big Dozier fan.

In regards to a possible J.J. Hardy trade. To give everyone an idea on what it would take, the Orioles asked for Shelby Miller in trade talks with the Cardinals. So the conversation probably starts with Meyer.

Unfortunately it would take too long to break down exactly how each site determines WAR. If you are interested and have the time, they each do a full breakdown on their sites on how they determine WAR. The differences are in the metrics they use. For example, Fangraphs uses UZR as their defensive metric when measuring WAR while BR uses both DRS and TZ(Total Zone). I generally use both sites for various things, but BR is my preferred site for WAR. It's much more extensive, especially since it's been updated. There are metrics that I prefer on Fangraphs though. For example, I prefer wRC+ a lot, lot, lot more than OPS+ and also UZR over TZ as an individual defensive metric. Morneau only slugged .411 and although OPS is an easy stat to look at, it is a very flawed metric when truly measuring a player's offensive value. OBP% assumes all hits and walks are equal. SLG% doesn't weigh hits properly (e.g., a double is not worth twice as much as a single). Then OPS combines the two into one metric, assuming both are equal. When in reality 1 OBP% is worth close to double 1 SLG%. That's why it's better to look at wOBA(weighted On Base Average). wOBA takes each offensive outcome and weighs them in proportion to their actual run value. The weights change year to year as well, adjusting to the run scoring environment. So unlike OPS, wOBA properly values the player for that individual year. Unfortunately, like OPS, wOBA is not park adjusted. Fangraphs and BR both use wOBA as their offensive metric for measuring WAR, but they convert it to wRAA (weighted Runs Above Average). wRAA takes wOBA and gives it a plus/minus run value to better quantify how good a player is/was compared to league average. After being park and league adjusted BR has Swisher at (+15) and Morneau at (+2). Add on the fact that Swisher is a better baserunner and better defensively and you get the difference in WAR. Hope all this helps

I'm not sure, but obviously I feel they should be . Comments and reports are leaning me to believe they are not. I had little to no idea they were close on Nolasco and Hughes. Then BOOM, they were signed. So maybe the Twins could be the infamous "mystery team" that comes out of nowhere.

I'm not sure how you can assume it's zero, especially for two years. I don't remember one projection that Cleveland would make the playoffs last year. Signing Drew should not be the final move as it leans towards contending within the first two years. There's still flexibility to improve the team after his signing. Drew would just be the biggest immediate upgrade for what's available. He is also going to be a good value considering what the market is. Barring injury or a complete breakdown (which is a risk for any free agent), you could always recoup value through a trade, if the team continues to fail.

Swisher was actually above average for a first baseman offensively. He was also worth 3.8 WAR. Those stats are about what his career averages are. You are paying for defense and speed with Bourn. He was still worth 2.4 WAR. I believe it was the accumulation of many things that helped their turn around. Pitching was a big part of it, but so were Bourn and Swisher. You also have to consider who do they have to replace that production. They lose 2 more games they are not in the playoffs. They lose 1, they would have played game 163. Pretty sure Swisher and Bourn helped them win at least two more games.

I'm curious why you continued to assert that Worley and Diamond's poor performance in 2013 was injury related and then don't give Drew the same consideration. Especially when there is statistical evidence that supports it. Prior to that ankle injury, he had been on the DL one time. Here was his games played in the prior four full seasons: 150, 152, 135, 151. He was on pace for another 150+ games before he got hurt in 2011. So what more should he have done for his organization? I've read nothing but good from managers and players in regards to Drew. I'd rather believe those comments than the one negative comment that I've read (other than fans) from an owner that also called out his 24 year old star player before shipping him out of town. As you mentioned, our shortstop situation is terrible. Other than the Mets, the other teams mentioned are even further out of contention(Marlins, Astros) or have a viable shortstop(Giants, Blue Jays, Pirates). The competition is really down to the Mets and the Red Sox.

I just wanted to agree with this post. I've always liked Drew as a player, but the fact that his price tag has dropped is the main reason why I want the Twins to jump in. In free agency, you have to look for value. Drew would be a good value at the stated costs. Look at what Cleveland did. They waited out the market and got Swisher and Bourn. They took advantage of the system and their protected first round pick, to get two good players late in the offseason. Which helped turn them from a 68 win team to a playoff team.

Those projections were not done by mlbtraderumors, they were projections by Steamer, Oliver and ZiPS. All of which do not recognize Drew's 2012 season as a season in which he was recovering from injury. One of many flaws to projection systems. Mlbtraderumors actually ranked Drew as the 14th best player available going into the offseason. The best shortstop available to start and currently the best position player available.

In response to this quote: It just seems completely unfair for another person to question what's going on with Drew's body. He was recovering from a major ankle injury. If anything, the numbers I posted above, regarding his performance after coming off injury, shows that Drew rushed back. His poor performance not only hurt the team, but hurt his stock. So it was a lose, lose and this was something they wanted to rush even more. Keep in mind that this is the same owner that called out Justin Upton for underperforming and eventually sold low on him (along with Chris Johnson). The same team that sold low on Ian Kennedy for underperforming. Adam Eaton after an injury plagued season. Tyler Skaggs after underperforming in his rookie year. It just seems that if you get injured or underperform for that franchise, then you get called out or traded. Or in some cases both.

That season in the middle is the year he was recovering from injury. This was his wRC+ month by month after he returned that year. [TABLE=width: 500] June 7 July 42 August 85 Remainder of season 108 [/TABLE] Seems obvious that he was still recovering, and regaining his form. Looks like he started to get his groove back in August and finished the season as the hitter he is. Considering he followed it up with a 109 wRC+. Also that 93.6 is incorrect. For those three years, including his 2012, he put up a 96 wRC+. You don't take the three years of performance and divide it by three, as he had different amount of plate appearances in each year. If you do remove his 2012 season, his last three are 113, 92 (half-season), 109. A 107 wRC+. Which is about where he was this past season.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2582-The-Case-for-Stephen-Drew

This is just speculation. a. Signing Peralta did not require sacrificing a draft pick. b. Drew's agent is Scott Boras, who will generally wait it out for the best deal possible. Unless you overpay, of course. c. The Cardinals factored in point b, and didn't want to possibly miss out on both shortstops. So they just went out and snagged Peralta early.