JP3700

I'd like Miller as well, but that would defeat the purpose. The M's are looking to contend, and you'd be taking away their starting shortstop.

Price has been worth between +4 to +4.5 wins over the last three years. Depending on if you use RA9 or FIP. Let's just assume he's going to be worth +4.5 WAR over the next two years to make it easy. At $6 million a win, he's going to be worth $54M in those two years. He's going to cost about $30M over that two year span. That's a healthy $24M surplus. However, then you consider the next four years. Considering Greinke got an AAV of 24.5M, Price's extension has to start at $25M. To make it easy, let's just say his AAV is $25M. Within those four years, he has to continue pitching at the same level, just for him to be worth it. Then you take into account regression and injury. It's a good bet that he would net a negative value over those four years. For argument's sake though, let's just say he's worth every penny over those four years. So, over the six years, Price has been worth +$24M in surplus value. When you consider what Meyer will make over those six years, that's why Meyer is a good bet to be worth more than +$24M over that same time frame. A good bet doesn't mean it's 100%, locked in. It means I'd put the odds over 50% that it would happen. Meyer isn't a kid in rookie ball. He's shown to be dominant in AA, and the AFL. Obviously there is no guarantee. But, there is no guarantee with Price, or any other player. Price had a triceps injury, and a drop in velocity in 2013. I understand that the value is relative though. Price's more than likely 4.5 WAR has much more value than Meyer's range of value to a contending team. But, to the Twins, Meyer makes more sense. I think you'd agree by your final statement. All this being said, I still would trade Meyer for Price one for one. Only because I'd flip Price for more, to a contending team. It's all about value to me.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2526-Strike-while-it-s-hot-Mariners-Trade

I agree that his statement was way too optimistic. However, I do think Meyer is a good bet to provide more actual value than Price, over the next six years.

When comparing Price to Meyer over the next six years, you can't just use performance. Price will make about $30 million in the next two years and another $90-100 million in the following four, if signed to an extension. Meyer will make the league minimum for three years, followed by three arbitration years. There's quite a bit of surplus value there, if Meyer is anywhere close to his projection. As far as the trade itself, the Twins are too low on the win curve for it to make sense. We need some of those prospects to fill out the roster, before we go for this type of move.

This off-season has been a crazy one. A lot of the big name free agents are already off the board and we're not even at the winter meetings yet. What has also been interesting is the amount of significant trades that have been made. Trades are, by far, the most interesting transaction in any sport. There are usually winners and losers, and they are often fun to discuss and breakdown. For trades to happen, a lot of things have to come together. Supply and demand, the amount of money being exchanged, and the needs of the teams involved, are all important factors. This is where those three factors, all come together. The Mariners just signed Robinson Cano to a 10 year, $240 million contract. This was a curious move because they are coming off of a 71 win season. Pitchers Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, along with third baseman Kyle Seager, are the only impact players on their team. So what's their plan? Even with the Cano signing, the M's still have about $40-50 million dollars to spend. Some more good news is that they have plenty of young players with upside. Unfortunately, with a narrow window, they can't afford to wait on those players to develop. The M's have been linked to David Price, to form a trio that would compete with any front three in baseball. Their other needs include a couple of right handed power bats, a back of the rotation innings eater, and a closer. My proposed trade.. Trade Glen Perkins, Josh Willingham and Kevin Correia for SS Chris Taylor, RHP Brandon Maurer, UT Stefen Romero and RHP Tom Wilhelmsen. The proposed trade fills several needs for the Mariners, while only increasing their payroll by $16M. This leaves them with money to acquire Price and another bat like Kendrys Morales or Nelson Cruz. Perkins is obviously the biggest piece in this trade. Glen is one of the ten best relievers in baseball, with or without the "closer" tag. Perkins will have much more value to the M's and the fact that he will only make roughly $12M in the next three years, makes him one of the bigger bargains in baseball. Willingham and Correia are both players that have one year left on their contract. With Cano and King Felix eating up $50M for years to come, the M's will look for as much financial flexibility as possible. Hammer is coming off a down, injury riddled season. Although I hate the thought of selling low, I feel supply and demand will increase his value. Right handed power is in short supply and Josh also fills their need of a corner OF. Correia would be a perfect fit as an innings eater in that ballpark. Now for what the Twins are getting. None of these guys are can't miss players, but they all have upside to be useful major league players. With the M's pitching depth and a crowded middle infield, they are all players they can afford to trade. Chris Taylor is the key piece for me in this trade. He is currently the M's minor league player of the year. Known for his glove, he has great hands and feet. He also has an average to above average arm. So far his offense has kept up with his defense. At age 22, Chris spent 2013 at A+ and AA putting up a .314/.409/.455 slash line with 38 stolen bases. He has the potential to be an everyday shortstop that gets on base, provides good defense, and steals 25+ bases. The other pieces are interchangeable. The M's have plenty of young talent. So instead of Maurer and Romero, it could be some other combination. Wilhelmsen is a sweetener, so you can also replace him with another prospect. The Mariners have a limited budget to work with, they have needs to fill and they have the prospects to trade. Now is the time to strike and maximize the value on our players.

This off-season has been a crazy one. A lot of the big name free agents are already off the board and we're not even at the winter meetings yet. What has also been interesting is the amount of significant trades that have been made. Trades are, by far, the most interesting transaction in any sport. There are usually winners and losers, and they are often fun to discuss and breakdown. For trades to happen, a lot of things have to come together. Supply and demand, the amount of money being exchanged, and the needs of the teams involved, are all important factors. This is where those three factors, all come together. The Mariners just signed Robinson Cano to a 10 year, $240 million contract. This was a curious move because they are coming off of a 71 win season. Pitchers Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, along with third baseman Kyle Seager, are the only impact players on their team. So what's their plan? Even with the Cano signing, the M's still have about $40-50 million dollars to spend. Some more good news is that they have plenty of young players with upside. Unfortunately, with a narrow window, they can't afford to wait on those players to develop. The M's have been linked to David Price, to form a trio that would compete with any front three in baseball. Their other needs include a couple of right handed power bats, a back of the rotation innings eater, and a closer. My proposed trade.. Trade Glen Perkins, Josh Willingham and Kevin Correia for SS Chris Taylor, RHP Brandon Maurer, UT Stefen Romero and RHP Tom Wilhelmsen. The proposed trade fills several needs for the Mariners, while only increasing their payroll by $16M. This leaves them with money to acquire Price and another bat like Kendrys Morales or Nelson Cruz. Perkins is obviously the biggest piece in this trade. Glen is one of the ten best relievers in baseball, with or without the "closer" tag. Perkins will have much more value to the M's and the fact that he will only make roughly $12M in the next three years, makes him one of the bigger bargains in baseball. Willingham and Correia are both players that have one year left on their contract. With Cano and King Felix eating up $50M for years to come, the M's will look for as much financial flexibility as possible. Hammer is coming off a down, injury riddled season. Although I hate the thought of selling low, I feel supply and demand will increase his value. Right handed power is in short supply and Josh also fills their need of a corner OF. Correia would be a perfect fit as an innings eater in that ballpark. Now for what the Twins are getting. None of these guys are can't miss players, but they all have upside to be useful major league players. With the M's pitching depth and a crowded middle infield, they are all players they can afford to trade. Chris Taylor is the key piece for me in this trade. He is currently the M's minor league player of the year. Known for his glove, he has great hands and feet. He also has an average to above average arm. So far his offense has kept up with his defense. At age 22, Chris spent 2013 at A+ and AA putting up a .314/.409/.455 slash line with 38 stolen bases. He has the potential to be an everyday shortstop that gets on base, provides good defense, and steals 25+ bases. The other pieces are interchangeable. The M's have plenty of young talent. So instead of Maurer and Romero, it could be some other combination. Wilhelmsen is a sweetener, so you can also replace him with another prospect. The Mariners have a limited budget to work with, they have needs to fill and they have the prospects to trade. Now is the time to strike and maximize the value on our players.

I just wanted to point out to the posters with injury concerns on Anderson, Garza has had elbow, shoulder and lat injuries over the last two years where Anderson's injuries were an oblique strain and a stress fracture in his foot. That being said, I wouldn't trade multiple impact prospects for Anderson. I also wouldn't give Garza more than a Nolasco, Edwin Jackson type contract. As a team, you always should try to improve, even when you are this low on the win curve. However, you should be looking for value, not an overpay.

I agree with cmb, there aren't really any good matches in free agency left. I'd look for a couple of guys with upside on minor league deals. Guys like Grady Sizemore and Wilson Betemit come to mind. I think they can also get creative and use some of their pitching depth in trades. The bullpen has some good arms and guys like Worley and Diamond should still have some value. Last year the Indians traded Esmil Rogers (spot starter, reliever) for Yan Gomes and Mike Aviles. They also got Ryan Raburn on a minor league deal.

Lot of things have changed since then. Last off-season Anderson was very good in his return from Tommy John until the oblique strain. Then he came back in the playoffs and dominated Detroit in a must win game 3. The A's also didn't have as much pitching depth as they do now.

After securing a couple of middle of the rotation guys, Anderson is the kind of guy that should be added. There's a reason that the A's turned down Wil Myers for Anderson last year. He's essentially a left handed Doug Fister, with more groundballs and more strikeouts. He'll only be 26 on opening day and has two years of team control left. He's also shown that he's willing to sign an extension. Injury concerns are valid, but keep in mind he hasn't had an arm related injury since having Tommy John surgery. He had an oblique strain in 2012 and a stress fracture in his foot last year. I'm not sure what it would take. The A's addressed most of their needs recently adding Kazmir, Gentry, Johnson and Gregorson. If they still want bullpen depth, I'd offer any two not named Perkins.

Nowhere did I say Fryer should be our everyday starter. Ryan Hanigan has never been a full time player, his career high in PA is 371.

I completely agree. I thought I was the only one that caught this. My biggest issue with Hughes is confidence. I watched several of his starts towards the end of the season, and he just looked beat down. You would think a confident Hughes would go into this off-season looking for a one year deal to establish value and re-enter the 2015 class at age 28 looking for a Nolasco or better type deal. With all that being said, I'd still make a run at him. After the Nolasco signing, they should be looking for upside and Hughes has some. Liriano took a two year deal when his value was low and he ended up working out. Perhaps Hughes just needs that change of scenery to re-establish his confidence and we get a steal like Frankie.

Slight edit to the post above: it's rWAR not bWAR. I wasn't a fan of Nolasco as well, due to performance. I like FIP and xFIP and I think it's important to look at, but after a certain amount of time, you are who you are. I thought I'd do a little digging however on why his secondary numbers translated better to his actual performance in 2013. I stumbled upon this.. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ricky-nolascos-career-year/. The few things I took away is that.. - using his slider more - changed his fastball approach - slightly changed his arm angle So there's a good chance that he figured some things out, rather than it just being luck.

I don't love Nolasco, but I like the signing. I think it was important to get a reliable, league average pitcher for multiple years. I would have preferred Feldman since he would have cost less years and dollars, but they spent more for the track record of durability which I can appreciate. If they do acquire another pitcher, it should be one with upside on a shorter term deal. Sign a Kazmir or Hughes or trade for an Anderson or Hellickson. I think it's important to see what we have in Deduno (if healthy) and Gibson. Meyer and May should see some big league time as well. They also have to be willing to cut bait on guys like Diamond and Worley, and not hold on to them just because they are out of options. Re-evaluate the team next off-season and use free agency to continue to complement a young and upcoming team. Plenty of attractive free agents next off-season, no need to go all out in this one when we are so low on the win curve. With money to spend, some improved pitching and the young impact position players coming up, we'll be in good shape to be aggressive in 2015.

You might not want to tell him that he also requested Eric Fryer to be his personal catcher. *ducks*

I'm guessing Arroyo. 3yrs

Since I've seen several Fangraphs references, I thought I'd post this article from the site. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-land-mines-of-the-2014-free-agent-class/ I agree that Salty would be fine defensively, but I've seen several posts defending his offense. He's just not a good offensive player. He strikes out 30% of the time, which would be fine if he walked more and/or provided more power. I understand we have the money to spend, but I'd rather not just throw bad money at average players and say "hey, at least we spent money". Instead of $10M a year on Salty, spend $16-18M a year on Choo.

Arcia's K% is a big issue because of his 6.1 BB%. Even with a .336 BABIP he still only had a .304 OBP. The good thing is Arcia is still young and his minor league numbers say that he's able to take walks. If he can get his K% down by 5% and his BB% up by 3% he turns into a legitimate bat.

While Salty is good at receiving, he has a poor arm and doesn't block pitches well. He also had a fluky offensive season and will more likely be a sub .300 OBP guy going forward with that 30% K rate. I would stay away from him. I know this is looking ahead, but the guy I would target is in the 2015 FA class and that's Russell Martin. He's the second best defensive catcher behind Yadier Molina and is league average at the plate. He'll be 32 but I'd still be very aggressive going after him next off-season.