JP3700

With our Twins not making any significant moves yet, along with my increased impatience, I decided to take another shot at an offseason blueprint. Transactions: Trade Denard Span, Jamey Carroll and $2 million cash for Tony Cingrani and Didi Gregorius Sign Anibal Sanchez to a five year, $75 million contract. Includes a sixth year club option of $15 million with a $5 million buyout. Sign Brandon McCarthy to a two year, $22 million contract. Includes a third year vesting option of $14 million. The option vests if McCarthy pitches 320 innings over the first 2 seasons. The Roster (with salaries): Starting Lineup: CF Ben Revere Min C Joe Mauer $23M LF Josh Willingham $7M 1B Justin Morneau $14M DH Ryan Doumit $3.5M RF Chris Parmelee Min 3B Trevor Plouffe Min SS Didi Gregorius Min 2B Brian Dozier Min Bench: OF Darin Mastroianni Min IF Eduardo Escobar Min C/LF Chris Herrmann Min Bench Bat Min Rotation: Anibal Sanchez $15M Brandon McCarthy $11M Scott Diamond Min Kyle Gibson Min Liam Hendriks Min Bullpen: Glen Perkins $2.5M Jared Burton $2M Brian Duensing $1.25M Casey Fien Min Tyler Robertson Min Alex Burnett Min Josh Roenicke Min $52M Position Players $27.5M Starting Rotation $7.75M Bullpen $7.75M Blackburn, Capps & Trade $95M Total The offense projects to be between average to slightly below average. With the additions of Sanchez, McCarthy and Gibson to the rotation, if the team has average luck, I would project 70-75 wins. With good luck, I would say the team could hover around .500. With extraordinary luck (2012 Orioles), the team could push for a playoff spot. 2014 outlook: $62.25M in guaranteed contracts 3 arbitration eligible players: Plouffe, Revere and Duensing Possible Trade Chips: McCarthy, Willingham, Doumit, Revere Possible Prospect Arrivals: Position Players - Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Nate Roberts, Joe Benson, Daniel Santana, Josmil Pinto Starting Pitchers - Tony Cingrani, B.J. Hermsen, Pedro Hernandez If we add up the guaranteed contracts, projected arbitration salaries, and assume the Twins have 10-12 players on the opening day roster making the league minimum, that would bring the payroll to right around $75 million. With the additional national TV revenue, I project a 2014 payroll of $105 million at a minimum. That would leave at least $30 million to fill 4-6 roster spots. That's a lot of flexibility for trades and free agency. What say you?

Those were the two that made it a no-go in my book actually. Like I said earlier, consider the source on the article you posted. The Braves have actually refused him media credentials in the past, despite having one of the 2-3 longest running Braves blogs/forums on the internet. Multiple blogs that have started up in the last two years have received those same credentials. The Braves still value Hanson fairly high, and all reports from inside and outside the organization is that there is a lot of high-level interest in him. Ahmed is probably not going to achieve MLB status until he's 25ish, but he's someone that the organization regards very highly. According to rumors, he was part of the reason for backing out of one deadline deal this year. He's what would seem like a perfect future utility guy, and it's highly doubtful that the Braves will consider moving him until he fails a level. He made a big jump (2 levels) this year and held his own. I'd wager he'll go up step by step from here, but he's very highly regarded by the organization, so he's going to be tough to get involved in a deal. I guess from the upside/downside for both players, I've thought Hanson/Span makes way too much sense for both teams for it not to get done. Fair enough, appreciate the response. That's why I specifically asked you. You obviously follow the Braves, so you'd have a better grasp of what they'd be willing to do. I just didn't appreciate the posts that made it seem like a completely unreasonable trade without thought. Especially from people I didn't ask, nor have a grasp of Atlanta's needs as a team.

I'm not going to argue with any of the rude replies to a question where I specifically asked one person, but just know that there was a thought process to my question. -Denard Span is obvious so I'll skip why he was involved. -Brian McCann had shoulder surgery and will miss significant time. The Braves have a need at C and are looking at David Ross (their backup from 2012) who will cost similar to what Doumit is making. On top of this McCann is a free agent after the season and the Braves might not be able to afford him considering they have to pay Prado, Heyward and Freeman. Doumit would be a decent stop gap for Christian Bethancourt as Doumit is signed through 2014. -The Braves have Juan Francisco to play 3B who has 20+ HR power and hits RH pitching well, but is brutal against LH pitching. Carroll had an .839 OPS against LH pitching in 2012. The $2 million added makes him only cost $1.75 and there were already reports that the Braves were looking for a backup middle infielder. -The Braves have a strong bullpen, but their late inning guys are O'Flaherty and Venters who are both lefties. Durbin was their righty and he's a FA so Burton would not only replace him, but be an upgrade. As for the return.. -Delgado is the centerpiece -Hanson's value has significantly dropped with his drop in velocity and poor 2012. Sure the Braves would be selling low, but they may be wary of investing $4 million on a guy who could fall off the map like Jurrjens did.. Obviously I could be wrong on them selling low, but if you read the article I linked above there are opinions that Hanson could only get a "promising bullpen arm" now. -Ahmed is blocked by Simmons and isn't that highly regarded anyway. Similar to Brian Dozier: no tools that stand out but does a lot of things right. -Hale is a borderline top 20 prospect in their organization. he's 25 and hasn't pitched an inning past AA, so instead of asking for Sprull or Graham I added him. Like I mentioned, it was just fun to ask. But instead of just reading names and assuming it's a bad trade, do some research and realize there was a thought process.. Thanks.

Walker will be top 3. Hultzen top 10. They have a 2B Nick Franklin who should be top 20ish. Paxton top 100. Saw him in the Rising Stars game.. Low 90s fastball but had a lot of life on it, nothing else stood out, but he didn't pitch long.

Biggentleben, as a Braves fan what do you think of this trade.. Denard Span, Ryan Doumit, Jamey Carroll, Jared Burton and $2 million cash for Randall Delgado, Tommy Hanson, Nick Ahmed and David Hale Prado in LF, Span in CF Doumit catches til McCann is back and can play LF with moving Prado to 3B Francisco at 3B vs. RH and Carroll vs. LH + Utility IF Burton as the late inning RH to Kimbrel. Leaves plenty of money to sign a Sanchez, Jackson or Marcum type pitcher and extensions for Prado and Heyward. Seem pretty fair? Just fun to think about.

Yep, I know gondeee's viewpoints quite well. He's always been very anti-Hanson and very alarmist about him, suggesting in 2009 that JA Happ was by far the better long term pitcher. He's is VERY against Hanson's motion, so he weighs things that way. But even in that article, he didn't directly compare it to Jurrjens - which it isn't at all. Jurrjens never had velocity. He just forgot how to hit the strike zone. He said it could end up a similar situation - a high paid player who isn't good enough to be in the rotation anymore, much like Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, and Jair Jurrjens have been in the last 3 years. For the Braves, that could simply be because they have better rotation options, frankly, not because of anything wrong with Hanson. Jurrjens had plenty of velocity. He use to be 91-93, topping out at 96. Now he's 88-90 topping out at 92. Here's his PitchFx page. There is a pretty solid comparison there considering the velocity drops and injuries. Jurrjens' knee and Hanson's shoulder. I wouldn't mind gambling on Hanson, but there's high risk there.

Here's a Link to an article mostly about Hanson.

Hanson and Teheran, possibly, maybe on Delgado/Teheran, and no on Minor/Teheran on likelihood of those happening. And it'd certainly be Span over Revere. If we can get two pitchers back, I would definitely approve trading Span and Willingham. It would make a lot of sense financially for the Braves. I like Hanson but he has horrible mechanics and has lost close to 4 MPH from his fastball in the last 2 years. I think he's worth the gamble but there's a lot of risk there. Braves fans are worried about him being the next Jurrjens. I'd prefer Teheran over Delgado because of the higher ceiling but I would take either one as the other pitcher. To replace Willingham's power you can sign Jonny Gomes .262/.377/.491 this past season in Oakland. He has severe splits but you can have Gomes, Parmelee, Morneau and Doumit for 1B/LF/DH/Bench bat. Move Revere to CF and sign a 1 year RF: Melky Cabrera or Grady Sizemore, Nate McLouth, Nate Schierholtz platooned with Mastroianni. Good core of young pitchers: Teheran, Gibson, Diamond, Hanson, Hendriks

I just wanted to add the thought process for my blueprint and give some explanations. First I want to say that even though I have names attached to the transactions, for the most part it's more about the approach I would take. Let me start with the Denard Span trade. I, like Phil Mackey, feel that Denard to Atlanta makes a lot of sense. However, I feel that Hanson makes more sense than Minor. He's set to make $4 million in arbitration so it would be close to an even swap in dollars along with up to 3 years of control for each player. Another reason is, other than Medlen, the other 4 young pitchers they have are all pre arbitration, so it would make more sense for them to keep those guys for financial reasons. I'll be honest, the Justin Morneau trade is a salary dump. I know! It hurts me too. However, I do think we can sneak in some value in a trade. Boston has a hole at first base and are seeking short term deals to avoid more bad contracts, while still being competitive. They are stacked with bullpen arms and Andrew Miller has some good upside. He failed as a starter but he's a lefty, was pretty successful in first season as a reliever, throws in the mid 90s and has a hard slider. Kind of remind you of someone? Ryan Roberts is most likely to be non-tendered by the Rays so they get a young, cheap lefty reliever to replace J.P. Howell. Roberts projects to be a backup to Longoria and Zobrist and they can't afford to pay $3 million to a bench player. I like that he brings a little pop along with solid defense and decent on base skills. I also like his versatility as an insurance policy in case Plouffe struggles at 3B. The Stephen Drew signing is my "crazy aggressive" move. He projects to receive a 1-2 year deal at around $8 million per. My 4 years are to ensure that he signs with the Twins. I'm sure my insatiable craving for a decent SS has something to do with it, but I think it's a good gamble. Late in the season, he seemed to be regaining his form from 2009-2011, and that's what I'm banking on. If that happens, he would be a steal. If not, it would blow up in my face. You have to take some risks if you want to win though right? The Marcum and Baker deals are self explanatory. Both players have been discussed many a time, so I won't go into detail there. Melky Cabrera? Sign with the Twins? Blasphemy! We all know he'll be seeking a one year deal to rebuild his value, so why not do it with the Twins? He won't have to deal with a high pressure media market and Target Field has plenty of room to slap around some hits. He also serves as a great bridge to Arcia or Hicks and could bring some value at the deadline. Carlos Villanueva and Kyle Farnsworth pretty much fill out the pitching staff. Villanueva wants to prove himself as a starter and we have a spot for him. As for Farnsworth, I was looking to add a proven reliever to stabilize the pen, and he's the guy I chose. There are obviously similar guys out there, but I like him to have a bounce back year. My goal offensively was to provide a more balanced lineup, while also keeping an average defense on the field. As for pitching, I wanted to bring in guys that could miss some bats! All 5 new pitchers have shown that they can pile up some punch outs, and we know Scott Baker can hold his own as well. The best part is that there would only be $54 million allocated to payroll going into next off season, so there would be some room to improve once again.

I agree that Johnson and Drew will both get more lucrative contracts. I also think Keppinger and Grilli will as well. I can definitely appreciate the thought and effort put into this though, so thanks diehard. If you are posting a plan Pseudo, there was a thread started yesterday for Offseason Blueprints.

grienke was given a offer? No, Seth's list is correct. Greinke was traded mid season so he doesn't qualify for draft pick compensation.

What a terrible example. I'd also prefer that contract over Vernon Wells, Werth etc etc I was comparing two center fielders with similar skill sets and value. One is a free agent and the other is available via trade. Then you venture off to two corner outfielders that have nothing to do with Span's value in a trade. Yet you call my example terrible?

I don't see why people undervalue Span so much here. He's a 2-4 win player at a minimum. If you include his option he's slated to make $20 million in the next 3 years. Angel Pagan is going to cost around 5 years, $60 million. Which player/contract would you choose? His health issue was due to a concussion in 2011 that didn't affect him all of 2012. He hurt his shoulder on a diving catch in 2012, it's not like he has a lingering injury that he can't seem to get over. I think people feel his value is low because he hasn't been traded yet. I feel that's due to the Twins asking for too much, not teams undervaluing him.

Transactions: Trade CF Denard Span for SP Tommy Hanson. Trade 1B Justin Morneau for RP Andrew Miller. Trade RP Tyler Robertson for 2B/3B Ryan Roberts. Sign Stephen Drew to a four year, $30 million contract. Year 1: $5.5 million Year 2: $7.5 million Year 3: $8 million Year 4: $9 million Sign Shaun Marcum to a two year, $18 million contract. Includes a third year club option of $12 million with a $2 million buyout. Sign Scott Baker to a one year, $3 million contract with up to $4 million in incentives. Includes a second year club option of $9 million. Sign OF Melky Cabrera to a one year, $5 million contract with up to $3 million in incentives. Sign SP/RP Carlos Villanueva to a one year, $4.5 million contract. Sign RP Kyle Farnsworth to a one year, $2.25 million contract. The Roster (with salaries): Starting Lineup: CF Ben Revere $500,000 RF Melky Cabrera $5,000,000 C Joe Mauer $23,000,000 LF Josh Willingham $7,000,000 DH Ryan Doumit $3,500,000 1B Chris Parmelee $500,000 3B Trevor Plouffe $500,000 SS Stephen Drew $5,500,000 2B Ryan Roberts $3,000,000 Bench: IF Jamey Carroll $3,750,000 OF Darin Mastroianni $500,000 Backup C $500,000 Bench Bat $500,000 Rotation: Tommy Hanson $4,000,000 Shaun Marcum $9,000,000 Scott Diamond $500,000 Scott Baker $3,000,000 Carlos Villanueva $4,500,000 Bullpen: Glen Perkins $2,500,000 Jared Burton $2,000,000 Kyle Farnsworth $2,250,000 Andrew Miller $1,500,000 Casey Fien $500,000 Brian Duensing $1,250,000 Competition $500,000 $53,750,000 Position Players $21,000,000 Starting Rotation $10,500,000 Bullpen $5,750,000 Blackburn & Capps Up to $7,000,000 Incentives $91-98,000,000 Total

I think you have to explore all your options. If Buehrle is the only move they're making, I'd say no. But if we sign a Haren, Sanchez or even Marcum, I think it would be a good move. Considering they just gave up Bell for nothing and ate $8 million, I could see the Marlins eating $15-18 million for a young, cheap starter like Hendriks. Buehrle at 3 years/$30-33 million wouldn't be too bad. Plus who better to teach Diamond how to be the next Buehrle, than Buehrle himself

Thanks for the list Seth. I'm surprised you left out your relief pitcher of the year A.J. Achter. I would have thought he'd be in your 30s with the other power bullpen arms.

I know it's easier to look at free agents like Chavez, Polanco and Inge, but let's do some thinking out of the box. Ryan Roberts is slated to make $3 million for the Rays through arbitration. I don't see them spending that much of their payroll on him so he should be available in a minor trade. He provides above average defense at both 2B and 3B, a little pop (31 HR in the last 2 years) and decent speed (28 SB in the last 2 years. He could be the starter at 2B with Carroll as the utility guy. If Plouffe struggles, you can just move Roberts over to 3B. Wilson Betemit is also said to be available due to the emergence of Manny Machado. He's slated to make $2 million and won't cost much to acquire. He's a poor defender but has always crushed right handed pitching. He could provide some starts vs. RH starters along with some pop off the bench.

Ryan Roberts would be a good fit. He's heading into his second year of arbitration and is projected to make $3 million. That would be a big chunk of the Rays' payroll, so he's most likely to be non-tendered or traded. 31 HR in the last 2 years and plays a good 2B and 3B.

I hope they move Nate Roberts straight to New Britain and skip Fort Myers. I know injuries have held him back but he's going to be 24 and should be challenged.

Colby Lewis got a 1 year deal for $2 million with up to an additional $4 million in incentives. That's about the same range I expect for Baker. I just hope they add a second year option.

I hope you're right on all 5 predictions Nick. I'm also a big fan of Span, so I too will be dissapointed. I just hope they can identify a young cost controlled pitcher that can make me get over it. I hope this is how the starting pitching situation gets handled: 1. They bring back Scott Baker. Terry Ryan stated that he wants to bring him back so that's good news. 2. Your first prediction comes through and they're aggressive and sign a solid pitcher. 3. They identify a young MLB ready arm for Span and we roll with him. 4. Sign Carlos Villanueva for flexibility. He would start out the season as a starter but he's insurance for Scott Baker's recovery, Kyle Gibson's innings limit and if Hendriks or the young arm acquired fall flat on their face. If everything goes well, he's a solid reliever. Opening day: FA Scott Diamond Carlos Villanueva Pitcher from Span trade Liam Hendriks -Scott Baker hopefully ready by May. -Kyle Gibson starts in AAA with limited innings/pitch count per start until he's "ready for the majors" aka when he won't be eligible for super 2 status I think this is realistic and sticks within the assumed budget.

I would be happy with anything between 1-3 years for Marcum. Obviously 1 is low risk for the ball club, but 2-3 would control his cost in case he stays healthy and outperforms his contract like Willingham did this year.

His contract: 2013 - 5M 2014 - 5M club option no buyout 2015 - 5M club option no buyout As long as we're not giving up too much, I think you have to trade for him. That contract is just way too good! Their bullpen is thin so if they're just asking for a cost controlled reliever or two I'd pull the trigger. Worst case scenario - 2012 wasn't just an off year, his play continues to decline and our SS search continues in 2014 with 5M coming off the books Best case scenario - 2012 was an off year and he plays like the 2007-2011 version of himself and we get a 3-4 WAR SS for 5M a year.. Up to 3 years.

He had 1 bad start in Rochester, which was the first start in over 2 weeks due to being traded and his wife giving birth. He was very good in his last 3 starts up until his injury, along with the rest of the year between AA/AAA with the white sox organization so I'm not sure what you're talking about. from the mlb twins site he started 4 games, threw 17 innings had 11 ks 1 bb and era of 5.19 and op avg .342 he was also 0-2 I guess you just decided to respond to my post without reading it.

He had 1 bad start in Rochester, which was the first start in over 2 weeks due to being traded and his wife giving birth. He was very good in his last 3 starts up until his injury, along with the rest of the year between AA/AAA with the white sox organization so I'm not sure what you're talking about.