JP3700

Here would be my offseason plan with specific details on trades, possible signings, salaries, lineup, starting rotation, and bullpen. It's pretty much, we got a new set of downs but got a holding call on first down so it's 1st and 20. So we have to dig out of a hole, but we still have 3 downs before we have to punt. Offseason transactions: 4 FA signings - Carlos Villanueva: 2yrs - 14M with a 8M 3rd year team option with 1M buyout Or Ervin Santana: 1yr - 7M Or Jeremy Guthrie: 1yr - 7M Scott Baker: 1 yr - 3M with 6M 2nd year team option/500K buyout and 9M 3rd year team option/1M buyout Jeff Keppinger: 2yrs - 9M at 4.5M per year Joakim Soria: 1yr - 5M with a 8M 2nd year team option/1M buyout Or Ryan Madson: 1yr - 5M Trades - Denard Span &Alex Burnett in exchange for Randall Delgado 2 C prospects in exchange for Jed Lowrie (he is under control for 2 years) 1. Ben Revere CF 2. Jed Lowrie SS 3. Joe Mauer C 4. Josh Willingham LF 5. Justin Morneau 1B 6. Ryan Doumit DH 7. Chris Parmelee RF 8. Trevor Plouffe 3B 9. Jamey Carroll 2B Bench: Jeff Keppinger 3B/2B/1B Eduardo Escobar Utility IF Darin Mastroianni OF Drew Butera C Rotation: Scott Diamond Carlos Villanueva Randall Delgado Scott Baker Liam Hendriks/Sam Deduno AAA rotation depth: Kyle Gibson Cole DeVries Nick Blackburn Pedro Hernandez BJ Hermsen Bullpen: Joakim Soria or Ryan Madson Glen Perkins Jared Burton Anthony Slama Casey Fien Brian Duensing Kyle Waldrop 62.5M - 8 players under contract 5.5M estimate - 11 min salaries 6M estimate - 4 arbitration eligible 19.5M - 4 free agent contracts 93.5M estimated team salary Most of the transactions made are high upside signings or trades. Randall Delgado will be 23 with a nice projection as a #2 or 3 starter. Jed Lowrie is great but can't seem to stay healthy so I'm taking a shot there, with the hopes he stays healthy. Carlos Villanueva has shown he can start in the AL east and I like him as an under the radar signing. The other 2 possible signings other than Villanueva have shown they can be good but have been inconsistent recently and will have something to prove. Joakim Soria and Ryan Madson are both coming off Tommy John and will want to prove themselves on one year deals. I call this the Tampa Bay Ray special, if we are contending we have a solid closer, if not we might have good value at the deadline. I have Jeff Keppinger on the bench, but I would pretty much have him starting almost everyday at different positions. He is flexible and kills left handed pitching. Darin Mastroianni and Eduardo Escobar will be used often as defensive replacements and/or pinch runners. Basically my goal here was to use the Baltimore Orioles blueprint of trying to be competitive. A strong lineup which unfortunately in this case translates to a bad defense, an average rotation with AAA depth and a lights out bullpen that turns it into 6 inning games. Worst case, if we aren't competitive, we should have some desired players at around the deadline.

Since Liam's return, what I've seen from him, is that he's been predictable. He only pitches outside, he seems to be scared to come inside. I think this is due to the fact, he couldn't keep the ball in the park his first couple stints this year. It's worked so far, he's only allowed two out of the yard in 4 games, which is an improvement. The thing is, I'm assuming in AAA most batters would probably try to pull these pitches and would roll a grounder or hit weak fly balls. In the big leagues they seem to be flipping it to the opposite field or up the middle for base hits. He has to be willing to work both sides of the zone more effectively.

Why do people keep saying Span is breaking down? He's played in 108 out of 137 games this year. A lot of those were days off and another 2 weeks were wasted trying to play through an injury he sustained while making a great catch for his team, when he could have been getting treatment and rehabbing. This is his first stint on the DL this year. His concussion last year was on a play where he was trying to score a run, once again, for his team! This was his 5th year in the league not his 15th, the guy has plenty of baseball left. Maybe from now on he shouldn't dive for balls in the outfield and pull up before he has a collision at the plate. Then maybe he'll get some respect for his play and not be called "fragile".

If that is the case why is it that Ben has had huge slumps in back to back years? It's because it's not a sustainable way to get on base. You're right about making solid contact, but Ben doesn't consistently do that, contact yes, but not "solid". With a runner on second, You would take Ben because he has a higher BA? It's a .013 difference in BA this season and steadily declining. Denard has been a consistent hitter throughout his career and has a higher career BA with a much larger sample size. He is also more likely to get the ball out of the infield. As far as bunting, Denard is terrific at getting a bunt down when he needs to, either direction, although he's especially good at the drag bunt. I guess you don't remember those games this season where Ben popped up bunts late in the game where they needed to move a runner over, or maybe it's selective memory like the myth that Ben doesn't get picked off. I like both players, but I don't like the way people bash Denard. I'm just trying to point out his strengths, unfortunately I have to point out Ben's weaknesses. I have agreed from the beginning I would trade Denard first, but don't tell me there isn't currently a huge gap at the plate, cause the numbers and more importantly my eyes tell me otherwise. This obviously might change with Denard aging and hopefully Ben developing.

So with your theory, Span would be a .350+ hitter with Mauer hitting behind him . You're right about knowing what we have with Span, a .360 OBP lead off hitter that can hit for 40+ doubles, steal 20 bases and play a good center field. And on him "breaking down", he hurt himself hustling for an extra base and making a spectacular catch for his team, he didn't mysteriously break down. He has flaws, mainly his baserunning but people don't point out the times where Ben fails to get a bunt down to move a runner over at crucial times in games. I just don't understand why people are so down on him, he's been a great player for us, and will be a great player for another team, probably next year.

Doesn't this suggest he would be more effective leading off? No, because it's not a sustainable way to get on base. He'll always run into slumps which trickles down the line up. Also, there will be situations where the lead off hitter needs to come through with runners on. Let me ask, if it's the 9th inning 2 outs with a runner on second who would you rather see at the plate? Denard or Ben? Needing a bunt to move a runner over, who would you rather see at the plate? To lead off an inning in a 1 run game, who would you rather see at the plate? I can't think of situations where Denard isn't a more ideal hitter. As I mentioned I think they should trade Denard cause he has much more value but the slight difference between speed and defensive range does not make up the gap in ability at the plate. I like Revere, I'm rooting for him to be successful, but I have always thought he has the ceiling of Juan Pierre offensively and is a 4th OF on a winning team. I do agree that Aaron Hicks is the future, I love his upside.

Just curious what everyone thinks of Denard for Randall Delgado of the braves. I know it might be a stretch considering Delgado was a top 50 prospect coming into the season, but I think it may be reasonable considering the braves will need a CF/lead off hitter, they are on a limited budget, they are STACKED with starting pitching, and they were also offering him in the Ryan Dempster deal which fell through. So isn't 3 years of Denard at a good salary equal or more valuable than Dempster as a rental? I would definitely be happy with Delgado in the rotation next year.

While I do agree it's unrealistic to trade Revere instead of Span, I do think some people are highly undervaluing Denard's play and overvaluing Ben's. Denard is the prototypical lead off hitter. He has always been good at getting on base, but more importantly he always sees a lot of pitches while knowing how to foul off pitches if need be. This creates longer innings for pitchers and allows other batters to see what the pitcher is doing. To me, the offense looks completely different when Span is leading off compared to Revere. Span also has good gap to gap power, which Revere obviously has none of. Span was on pace for over 40 doubles and over 50 extra base hits. Ben will max out at 30 extra base hits on a good year and gets a large amount of hits on bloop/infield hits which aren't as effective with runners on base. Revere will never magically be able to draw more walks and if he does draw a couple more walks his BA will drop to even it out. There is a reason why Revere hits .241 as a lead off hitter and .318 as the number 2 hitter, it's a different animal. Lead off hitters are taught to have a different approach which Span clearly has down. When you ask Revere to take that approach it's like taking the venom away from a snake. Revere is naturally an aggressive hitter. I agree that Revere does bring more speed, has slightly better range and brings a fun personality but Span is by far an overall better player.

All I was doing was comparing Escobar to the "top 3" SS in the organization closest to the majors. I'll re visit in more depth if you are not following. I'll start with Florimon: They are both plus defenders with above average speed. They both put up a slightly above .650 OPS in their full year at AAA with high strikeout rates. The big difference is that in those years Florimon was 25 with almost 1000 previous PA at AA while Escobar was 22 with not even 250 PA at AA. Let's move on to Dozier: Obviously Escobar is better at every defensive aspect and has slightly more speed. Now let's compare their bats. In Dozier's first full year at the majors/AAA he produced a slightly over .600 OPS, was terrible at situational hitting, and couldn't get a bunt down to save his life(Escobar is good at both). Also add the fact that he is 25! I know people will talk about Dozier's past but he really only had one good year and there is a lot to be said about age vs. level when dealing with prospects. Escobar is turning 24 this off-season so it would be like sending him back down to high A ball next year, you really don't think he'd put up inflated numbers? Finally, Daniel Santana: the only reason I threw him in there is that I have read posts about Santana putting up good numbers at high A ball for being a MI at his young age. Then I read about how Escobar is a terrible hitter and will never develop into a better hitter. Do me a favor and compare Esco's high A hitting line vs. Santana's at an equal age. Considering they're identical, Esco is quoted to be a "defensive wizard" and I have not seen, read or heard one good thing about Santana's defense, why is it fair that people bash Esco and others have high hopes for Santana? He was 21 in AA and 22 at AAA and put up respectable numbers considering his age vs. level and that he's a SS, while still being a plus defender! I just don't think it's fair how people look at stats how they want to. It feels like people want to write him off because he was part of a "bad Liriano trade". Well we got the best SS in the organization (I know it's not saying much if anything at all) and a possible back end starter for a erratic pitching rental, I think they did pretty well. I'm not saying Escobar is the solution but he is currently the one I would go with from the options we have.

I would much rather have Escobar be the starting SS than Florimon or Dozier. I have never understood this talk about the guy can't hit. He's been completely mishandled. In his half year as a 21 year old he was putting up equal numbers to Daniel Santana who most people consider a top 20 prospect in the organization while being a plus defender which Santana is not. Then he was rushed to AA and held his own. At age 22 he put up better numbers than Florimon did at age 25 in a full year at AAA. This year he was called up just to sit on the bench and regress. He was the #5 prospect in the White Sox organization in 2011 so it's not like he can't play. Let him develop and see what we have. If we can teach him some better plate discipline, with his defense, I would be good with him for a few years. He's definitely a better option than Florimon or Dozier

Dozier isn't the only one who's been mismanaged. Escobar played everyday for years and for some reason this year he was turned into a guy who got less than one AB a day at age 23. Ask guys like Parmelee or even a comparable guy like Casilla how tough that transition is. As far as Dozier showing offensive prowess compared to Escobar, yes he put up better numbers at A-AA ball but keep in mind Dozier was 3 years older at every comparable level Escobar was at. I'm not saying Escobar will ever be a good batter, but I do think Dozier's numbers are inflated given his age vs. level and it obviously has caught up to him. As for Escobar's position, he is a SS that can play 2B and 3B. In 2011 he was Chicago's number 5 ranked prospect. He had just put up respectable numbers as a 21 year old in AA and was quoted to be a wizard at SS. His comparison was to Erick Aybar who I would take as my everyday SS in a heartbeat. The fact that some people are considering Florimon our SS of the future to me is a joke when Escobar is 2 years younger, is as good defensively, and put up slightly better numbers offensively in his full season at AAA at age 22 compared to Florimon at age 25. I'm not saying he's the solution but he deserves more of a shot than Florimon does..

Parmelee will be in the lineup next year. If he's not, then we will know something is wrong with the organization and that they've lost their mind. The question is, who do we move to get him in the lineup? The best move IMO is to move Span and Willingham in a package, as they have the most trade value. Two targets that make sense are the Braves and Phillies. The Braves have a world series caliber team, will have holes in both LF and CF, have a limited budget, and have a crazy amount of starting pitching. The Phillies want to also compete for a world series while staying under the luxury tax. This also might drive up the return if both teams are trying to acquire our 2 players. It's unrealistic to think that we will ever sign an ace so we need to either draft or trade for a possible ace. In these two trades I would be looking for either a package that started with Jesse Biddle of the Phillies or Julio Teheran of the Braves. A proposed trade I thought of would be Willingham, Span, and Burton for Teheran and Delgado. The Braves need a RH set up man as well and we'd get a possible 1 and 2 for 10 years. Obviously we move Revere to CF, Parm stays at RF to start the season and to fill Willingham's power void we go sign Jonny Gomes. Take a look at Gomes' numbers this year compared to Willingham's. If they had equal ABs, they would be almost identical and he will be cheaper. Hicks, Arcia, Benson and Herrmann start at AAA and depending on where they are, and also where the team is, by around the trade deadline we can move 2 of the 3, between Morneau, Doumit or Gomes. Add in a couple good moves in the offseason and we can stay competitive in 2013 and still be building for the future.

I don't understand why some people are bashing Escobar and saying Dozier deserved to be called up. Out of the 5 tools, Escobar grades better in 3 categories and virtually even in the other 2. People laugh at Escobar's line at Rochester, but Dozier has been even worse since being optioned. That, after looking completely lost in his last 3 months in the majors. If I'm going to have a weak hitting middle infielder on my roster, I would rather have the one with better range, a better arm, more speed, and can actually get a bunt down to move a runner over. These qualities at least have some value to my team, for defense and situational hitting. Add the fact that Escobar is 2 years younger than Dozier! I think it makes a lot of sense that he was the one called up.

What a game! To be honest I had given up when I saw it was 6-1 going into the 9th but when I went back to check it was 6-6 in the bottom of the 12th. Then Niko walked, they intentionally walked Maximillion and D.J. came through! What a clutch home run by Adam Walker. To hit a home run, when you know you have to have it, for a league championship, WOW! On top of that he's still 20 years old. I was excited when the twins stole him in the 3rd round. I had read he was raw with 80 power and had Giancarlo Stanton comparisons on MLB.com. They seem to have nailed it on the head with the rookie season he had. With the major league team in the state they're in, it's nice see our youngsters getting it done. Good job E-Twins! Next up.. Beloit!!!

I think he will be a free man sooner than next winter. There is a good chance someone will rule 5 him after the season he had and he'll be in a major league bullpen next year. Tampa might take a shot at him, they'll need bullpen arms next year.

I think some people are looking at this the wrong way. We have the right to make the first claim on him. What happens from there.. We either get him for nothing.. They pull him back.. Or we try to work out a trade. If the mariners ask for too much.. Then just don't complete a trade and the mariners will have to pull him back or just give him to us and we pay for the remaining of his 2012 salary which would be just under $1M. Now let's say we do acquire him for nothing or more likely low-mid level prospect(s) and he finishes out the year with the team. Now we have another asset on the ball club. He would have great value in the winter especially for the lack of left handed starters on the FA market. Just think about the fact that the cubs got a top 40 prospect (prior to Tommy John) for Paul Maholm who is a very comparable pitcher to Vargas. All I'm saying is explore the option of claiming him.. There is nothing to lose. I'm not saying he should be part of our rotation or any part of the twins' future but if acquiring him increases the overall value of the franchise then do it. Sometimes you have to think out of the box.. Especially when you're going to lose 90+ games for the second straight season with a budget that's going to continue to decrease.

Great post.. I was thinking the same thing earlier when I heard about it. The twins have first crack at him due to their record. I don't think it would hurt to at least put in the claim and see what happens. Find out what they want for him. Worst case they pull him off waivers. He has 1 year of team control after this season and if we can get him for cheap we might be able to make a Paul Maholm type trade next year at the deadline.

I think it is very likely that the Red Sox talk to the twins in the off season.. but the two players they would target will be Morneau and Willingham. Talks are that they are looking to re sign Ross and Ortiz so that just leaves LF and 1B as holes. I would definitely entertain a package that started with Matt Barnes in return

Let me start off by saying I haven't read all the posts so I may be repeating a couple of points. I've been fuming about Gardy's poor decisions for years now but to be honest I've never gone on forums til now and am still a newbie at this. Today just really ticked me off. Just another game where Gardy almost lost the game. Winning a 6-2 game in where we've lost 5 in a row and 14 of 16 in desperate need of a win.. heading back home.. he puts in Jeff Gray to pitch against the heart of the order of the best lineup in the majors. Not only is it the heart of the order.. The first 2 batters are left handed batters. As a fan even I know how bad Gray is against left handers(OPS over .1000!!!!!) (he is actually respectable against right handers). Knowing that the available pitchers were Fien, Gray, Burton, and Perkins wouldn't it make sense to line up your better middle reliever against the heart of the order and use Gray against the bottom of the lineup? Instead Gray gets all the fault.. Which ticks me off even more. We all know he's not a good pitcher.. But it isn't his fault he's on the roster. So while he is on the roster.. It's the manager's job to put his players in spots where he has the best chance to succeed. How many times in close games do we not see Glen Perkins.. and then a day or two later we see him in a non contested game because he needs work. His last 5 appearances before today have been in games where we lost by 4 runs or more! We can't get a sacrifice bunt down to save our life, we're terrible at situational hitting, and we're constantly making bonehead plays. I can go on and on but I've already said too much. The Astros canned their manager for having the worst record in the NL.. Well we have the worst record in the AL and have double the payroll! At some point shouldn't the manager be held accountable?

I've watched a lot of Edwin over the years.. Even from his days in Tampa where he was very erratic. I would agree he's not an "ace" but he is a very good pitcher. He is about as solid of a #3 as you can have unless you're blessed like the Nats or Giants. This will be the 4th consecutive year he pitches 200+ innings with a sub 4 ERA in those 4 years while being shipped from team to team. The most promising thing is how he pitched against the AL while with the Tigers and White Sox.. showing he's capable of pitching in our division. Other than Greinke there's no free agent I'd rather have

14 million is significant if they budget it right and have a plan. If they're willing to invest 5-6 years.. Edwin Jackson should be in the 10-12 million per year range. I think it would be a solid investment considering you can pretty much plug him in for 200 innings a year. Then you have 2-4 million for a Kevin Millwood type investment as a stopgap for a healthy Kyle Gibson in 2014. They also have Pavano, Liriano, Baker, Capps, Marquis contracts coming off the books. 25M+

As I stated in my essay above I'm 100% for rebuilding and shedding some money to invest in other parts of the ball club but I'm okay with not rushing to trade our assets. Morneau is building his value daily. His OPS is now back over .800 and it's likely to approach .850 by seasons end. The market will be small but there will be one. Boston stands out now.. Considering his projected production at Fenway would be huge. .900+ OPS when healthy. Tampa also would be an option but we would have to take on most of his salary. The return may be nice though if we can add pieces around him in the trade. Think James Shields. Willingham and Span will also have big value. Outside of Hamilton and big Papi there are no FA hitters with 30+ HR power. Span will be the second best lead off hitter "available" behind Bourn. To top it off the club friendly contracts won't hurt. A lot more gets done in the offseason anyway.. When all 30 teams still have hope and are looking to build a winner.

Well first of all let's all be honest here.. The center piece of the trade is Nick Punto!...... Okay let me start over.. I think this is a great trade for both teams but more so the Red Sox. They now have a great rotation set up for years to come. Matt Barnes is a projected 1-2 starter. They still have Lester, Buckholz, Doubront, and Morales. Now they add 2 guys who project to be solid 2-4 starters. With all the money coming off the books on top of Dice-K, big papi, and Youk's contracts that's a lot of money to reload with. Now let me talk about why this is good for the Twins. First of all I doubt there was anything offered worth noting for Morneau so I'm glad we still have him. I do believe we need to look at rebuilding as the goal for the offseason. Easy to say obviously but this move by the red sox opens up another door for the Twins IMO. Without going into detail of exact players and prospects in return.. This now makes a 3rd team that the twins can seriously talk to about a big trade come this winter. The other 2 being the Braves and the Phillies. All 3 teams have very inticing high end pitching prospects(with the Sox and Braves also having coveted young shortstops) and all 3 have great motivation to pull the trigger. The Phillies and Red Sox both have to reload to keep their fan base happy. Willingham and Span would be a perfect fit for the Phillies lineup and would (in their mind) put them into title contention. As for the Sox we can basically offer them 70HR and 200RBI with the hammer and Canadian. As for the Braves.. Bourn is leaving and they're going to move Prado to third next year so they will have the same holes the phillies have to fill in the outfield and they'd like to do it without spending a lot of cash. Getting Willingham and Span to fill out their already potent lineup would surge them to the top of the NL. From these 3 options.. The team I'd like most to deal with is the Braves due to the type of return we could receive. This Boston trade creates more demand for our players.. which is great! All of our top prospects are either outfielders or corner infielders. This winter we need to use the assets we have.. To balance out our future (pitching and middle infielders).. So that we can possibly have a 10 year contender come 2015(crosses fingers for 2014). To sign a couple middle of the road starters and keep the nucleus we have now would just make for at best a .500 team and hold back the franchise even longer. The hard part will be the business aspect. Moving big names means less tickets being sold. Which means less revenue. As a business owner myself there will have to be a commitment and belief that the right moves will eventually pay off and when it does.. The fans will once again fill the seats. I wouldn't mind reducing payroll for a couple years if it means we're going in the right direction. Lot of people forget the 2010 Rangers' payroll was under 60 million and they did pretty well for themselves. So to recap.. Good trade Boston!

There's a big difference between 88-90 and 84-86 which is what he was throwing in his last few starts. Plenty of starting pitchers do just fine at 88-90. I created a projected 2013 roster recently and my rotation had: 1. Acquired pitcher 2. Scott Diamond 3. Acquired pitcher 4. Liam Hendriks 5. PJ Walters AAA depth: Kyle Gibson Sam Deduno Esmerling Vasquez Pedro Hernandez Cole Devries Nick Blackburn BJ Hermsen *Not sure if Deduno and/or Vasquez would still be in the organization. Or Walters for that matter but I think he's the best option to start the season

I knew you would bring up overall stats but the reason why I asked if you watched him pitch is because he was a much different pitcher after the complete game against the Sox. His velocity dropped and his command wasn't the same. He reportedly had bad bullpen sessions prior to his last 3 starts and it showed on the mound which tells me that he was already hurt. Much like Pavano they kept running him out there. Take a look at first 3 games. 21.1 innings 2.95 ERA WHIP under 1 and a K/BB of 3. Keep in mind this was against the Blue Jays, Tigers and White Sox. I'm not saying he is a guarantee but I think you have to give him a long hard look when he's 100%