JP3700

Surprised no one has mentioned Pedro Hernandez. Isn't he the closest pitching prospect we have to being major league ready other than Gibson? I'm sure there's a good shot we see him next year at some point, unless he pitches terrible at Rochester.

I agree that we need to develop younger players, but I also want to field the most competitive team I can to start 2013. Considering we don't have a young 2B ready to start everyday I feel platooning these two would be a good short term solution, as he would only be a 1 year commitment which would also help block Carroll's vesting option which would make 2013 his last year as well and would clear the 2B position for 2013. Maybe by mid season Brian Dozier finds his confidence in AAA next year or Danny Santana does well in AA, one of them can become the young developing 2B. With the need to acquire young starting pitching, I don't see them being able to acquire a young MI so I'm suggesting Schumaker as a one year stop gap. Plus if we're out of it by mid season, I'm sure he would have trade value to a contending team, and should bring a similar return as to what we'd give up to acquire him.

Skip Schumaker seems to be a good fit as a platoon 2B for the Twins next season. Daniel Descalso has taken over the 2B spot for the Cardinals and looks to be the future at the position. Schumaker is a duplicate player as he's a LH 2B like Descalso. I won't go in depth into his career stats, because I'm sure if you're interested you'd look it up to approve or disapprove this thread , but he hits RH pitching well.. Career .305/.359/.403 slash line. The plan would be to platoon him along side Jamey Carroll at 2B with Carroll also being the utility guy at SS and 3B when needed. This would also help keep Carroll's AB under 400. Schumaker is under contract for 1yr - 1.5M in 2013, will be 33 years old and shouldn't cost too much to acquire. What are your thoughts?

Several teams reportedly offered Jackson multi-year deals but Boras convinced him that signing a 1 year deal for an NL contender would boost his stock for a better contract this offseason. Boras' actual intentions were to have him be the insurance policy for Strasburg (also his client) when they shut him down. Apparently that information leaked to him, and he fired Boras. As far as Jackson the pitcher, I like his stability.. 30+ starts 6 straight years, was very good in his time in the AL central with the Sox and Tigers.. So he's a proven AL pitcher, and he misses a good amount of bats. I'd say he's one of the better FA targets along with Marcum, Iwakuma, Villanueva as well as McCarthy and Baker if healthy.

Who's getting screwed in the trades I mentioned? If anything in a Hanson for Span swap the Braves would have to add to the trade. As far as a Josh Johnson trade, you mention a Span or Revere plus prospects trade and don't realize they have zero need for outfielders. 2 of their 3 best prospects are outfielders and they have 4 players on their ML team that are capable as well. They don't have a 3B and want young starting pitching to add to Turner and Eovaldi. Plouffe and Hendriks fits what they're looking for, have good upside and have plenty of team control left. Seems like a fair trade to me given their current needs.

I agree with the posts of acquiring Josh only if he agrees to an extension, not as a rental. I also agree that he wouldn't fix the problem, so if we were to go for him, he can't be the only piece we add, we have to really go for it. Just a thought but what if.. - Trade Hendriks & Plouffe for Johnson and sign to a 3 year extension with a 4th year option in addition to 2013 - Trade Span for Tommy Hanson who has 3 years of club control left - Re sign Baker to an incentive laden deal with club option(s) - Sign Jeff Keppinger as the everyday third baseman 2-3 years to bridge to Sano Lineup of: Revere CF Keppinger 3B Mauer C Willingham LF Morneau 1B Doumit DH Parmelee RF ? 2B ? SS Mastroianni off the bench as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. Carroll playing 3-4 days a week in the utility role. Pitching: Johnson, Baker, Diamond and Hanson in the rotation with Duensing, Burton and Perkins at the back end of the bullpen. Sounds like a competitive team to me and would be in the low 90M budget if we fill the roster with minimum salaries. Arcia and Hicks hopefully being ready by 2014 where another 20M coming off the books with Morneau, Blackburn and Carroll. Parm moves to 1B and Arcia or Hicks takes over in RF. I'm not a GM so who knows if this is all possible but it sure is fun to think about

I guess we'll just agree to disagree Brock. I just think more highly of him than you do apparently. However, I would think that you would agree with me that he is the best pitcher that we could realistically acquire. I do agree with you that I wouldn't overpay for him either, as I wouldn't for anyone in the state we're in.

I guess you failed to read where I said he's not as good as Sabathia. My comparison is to the fact that he is a workhorse, a leader and that his 6th and 7th seasons in the big leagues are where his numbers started trending up, all similar to Shields. Is it not possible that Shields is becoming a better pitcher over time as Sabathia has? He's only had one bad season in 6+ years in the league.. Even Verlander had a bad year. He's struck out 450 guys in the last 2 years and has one of if not the best change ups in the league. He is much much better than "just a little better than AL average".

Here's the thing: his ability to stay healthy is what MAKES Shields a borderline No. 1. The guy hasn't missed a start in six years. Teams value that kind of reliability very highly. You may be right that he's not likely to be an upper-echelon ace in terms of production (though over the last two years he basically has been) but I suspect he's exactly what the Twins are looking for in a guy who could lead their unstable rotation. I just wanted to say great post Nick and I completely agree. Verlander and Sabathia are probably the two most prototypical aces I can think of. Sure they have great stuff, but the thing that makes them great and allows them to be thought of so highly is the fact that they make every start and go deep into every game they have the ball. Comparing a "healthy Scott Baker" to James Shields is like saying a "healthy Kerry Wood" is comparable to Roger Clemens. Most great pitchers say that the most important stat at the end of a season is IP.. Not ERA, SO or any other sabermetric stat. Can't go wrong with 6 straight seasons with 200 IP.. He also got his team to the 6th inning in every start in 2012. Sorry went off the topic a little, but as far as Josh Johnson.. He would be a great fit as well.. Why not go after both he and Shields? Only problem I see is they don't really have a need in the OF.. They have Stanton, Bonifacio, Ruggiano and Morrison. Their need is more in corner IF and young starting pitching. So maybe Parmelee, Plouffe or Hendriks might interest them.. So maybe a package with 1 of the 3 and a couple of mid level prospects.

I'm assuming I'm included in the "people" you're quoting because I did mention giving up Parm in addition to Span for Shields. I just wanted to say that I actually am not only looking at stats. I watch a lot of baseball. I'm a business owner with a lot of free time, so I catch a lot of games and the Rays are what I guess you would call my secondary team, cause I love underdogs. Shields is the definition of an ace, and that's why he's been the ace down in Tampa for years. He's going to take the ball every 5th day and get you to the 6th inning at the minimum (more likely longer) in every single start, literally. He stays deep into the game, even in high leverage situations. He is not only a leader of the pitching staff, but a leader in the clubhouse. Teammates absolutely love the guy. He also pitches in the AL east, and I'm sure would be happy to see more of the Indians and Royals instead of the Yankees and Red Sox year in and year out. As far as stats go, his are trending up. He's coming off the 2 best years of his career including 448 SO and a ridiculous 477 IP. Keep in mind Sabathia didn't really fully figure it out til his 6th and 7th year as well, which is my best comparison to who Shields is. I'm not saying he's as good but he's also a workhorse that you can rely on for 200+ IP (6 years in a row), a leader and a guy who wants the ball in the biggest games. I watched his last game of the season.. Complete game 2 hitter with 15 SO and 0 BB with their season on the line.. Just reminded me of why they call him "Big game James". Maybe Span for Shields is a fair deal, I don't know, I'm not a GM.. but I think you are undervaluing him by the comments made about him. His performance is what I'm buying not his name.

I'm not a Nolasco fan, especially at 11.5M. Hand's BB rate has been very high the last couple years, ever since he hit AA and beyond. However, I do like that you put some thought in the post and thought out of the box. Josh Johnson is from Minnesota as well so he's very intriguing. The only problem is Miami would probably want young pitching and/or power hitting corner guys. I would think Hendriks + Plouffe might interest them but then what do we do at 3rd base? I would probably want to know that he'd be willing to sign an extension before making that trade. I really like the Tommy Hanson idea from a previous post. The Braves along with the Rays are the most ideal trade partners for Span, and I do like Hanson's upside along with his 3 years of team control. Delgado and Teheran are the other two pitchers that might be available from their army of pitchers. Another guy I just wanted to add is Justin Masterson. He has 2 years of control left and is due for a raise this year. The Indians have been shopping him but I don't really know what we have that would interest them other than Parmelee. Just wanted to add a name to the mix

I love the idea of trading for Shields. However, considering how strong he finished the season, I would think it would take Span and Parmelee to acquire him. The Rays need a long term 1B so Parm would make sense along with Span as the replacement in CF for Upton. Would be a steep price to pay, but Shields is worth it IMO. Other big name targets might be.. 1. Josh Johnson 2. Jon Lester 3. Mark Buehrle

It was most likely because there was a lefty starting. I don't think it would have mattered though because even if a righty was starting Parm would have been in RF and Revere in LF. Chris is still getting good experience and a nice paycheck so I don't think he minds. He might get 1 more start before the season ends.. 5-10 ABs.

Santana would be great as long as the price is right. I don't understand the over reaction of how bad or inconsistent he is. I live 15 minutes from Anaheim so I've been to quite a few Angels games and Santana is an outstanding pitcher. He was amazing in 2008.. And although his 2009 elbow problems led to a bad year and his velocity dropped slightly due to it he bounced back with solid 2010-2011 seasons. He's given up too many home runs this year but his stuff still looks good and in the last 2 months he's been one of the best pitchers in the league.. so he seems to have figured it back out. If his stock has declined where we can buy low.. He has the upside of a #2 and is pretty much a lock to get you 200 IP so I say do it.

Thanks John. I actually like Kendrick the least because I think it would require Span to get him. If that's the case I'd rather sweeten a trade around Span to make a push at Shields or go for one of Atlanta's young pitchers before exploring a trade with the Phillies. I think it would take a lot less to get Aceves and/or Arrieta.

Let me help out and mention 3 under the radar guys I think are realistic trade options and have good upside. Kyle Kendrick - Phillies make sense as a trade partner and Kendrick has pitched great down the stretch. They may want to sell high on him to fill some of their outfield needs with their rotation set with the big 3, Worley and Cloyd. He has 1 year - 4.5M remaining on his contract and I believe has one more year of arbitration left after that,. So 2 years of club control. Alfredo Aceves - Yes I know he's been erratic this year and he hasn't shown to be the best teammate, but the way Bobby Valentine has used him, I can't really blame the guy. One thing I do see when I watch him pitch is that he's got great stuff and has the track record (prior to this year) that backs it up. He has mentioned several times that he'd like to be a starter, he seems to have fallen out of favor in Boston and has 2 years of team control left. Jake Arrieta - Jake would be coming off what seems to be a horrible season. Currently 3-9 with a 6.18 ERA. But when you look more in depth at his numbers you see that he has a 8.55 K/9.. 2.77 BB/9 with a decent 44.2 GB%. His FIP is 3.98 with a xFIP of 3.64 so he's pitching a LOT better than his ERA would indicate. The only thing I see that scares me is the HR rate, but I think pitching in the AL east along with his home ballpark doesn't help. I can still remember him dominating us on opening day this year and the few times I've seen him pitch he's always impressed me. He has 4 years of team control remaining and is obviously my favorite target from the 3 I've mentioned.

Surprised no one has even mentioned Jake Peavy. The white sox have already said they aren't going to pick up his option. I don't think the twins should go after him but his being on the market might make a couple of the mid level guys like Jackson, Marcum or Sanchez more affordable/available.

I find it funny that on your previous posts your argument on Dozier was his age (which I agree with) yet you don't acknowledge Escobar's at the levels he was playing at. But okay let's take a look at his numbers. I'm going to compare him to our best MI this year, Jamey Carroll - He never posted an OBP under .300 in any full season in the minors while being very young for every level. Carroll has a .338 OBP this year so let's make it simple and say Escobar projects to have a .308 OBP in his first full season. So Carroll gets on base 3 more times per 100 ABs than a developing 24 year old that has a chance to improve. - At 21 between high A and AA he had 43 XBH, age 22 at AAA he had 31. In comparison Carroll has 17 XBH this season. - Escobar is much better on defense at every aspect. - Escobar has more speed Look I'm not saying he's the answer, but from our internal options he is the best one with the highest upside. I just find it funny that no one even mentions it. Tulo, Andrus and Asdrubal aren't walking through the door so if Escobar by age 26 can develop a OPS that hovers around .700 on top of his defensive skills I would definitely take that as my everyday SS

I have no idea why people continue to plug in Florimon at SS while saying Escobar can't hit or not even mentioning him as an option. Escobar hit as well or better than Florimon at every level in the minors while being 3 years younger when at those levels. He is also a plus defender but has a track record of being a much more consistent fielder. His last season getting full time ABs was at AAA as a 22 year old where he put up a .657 OPS. Our best MI this year (Jamey Carroll) currently has a .643 OPS. Throw on top of that he's always been projected as a gold glove caliber defender. All you have to do is look at the other dugout tonight. The other Escobar has also always been a plus defender but was horrible at the plate in his first 2 full seasons posting a .614 OPS followed by a .633 OPS. They continued to let him play everyday and this year he's broken out and is now considered one of the best all around SS in the league. This year was a wasted year for Escobar but he is still only going to be 24 at the start of next season which is 2 years younger than the other 2 mentioned internal options. Why shouldn't he deserve the shot to play everyday?

I would also rather see Escobar at SS if we're going with internal options. He seems to be the most reliable fielder when it comes to routine plays, has good range and a good arm as well. From the games I've seen him play, he has shown to be a good situational hitter and he's also 2 years younger than either player. He has the highest ceiling between the 3 IMO.

As I mentioned above, there is a reason for their run differential, but I'll add to it. They had inconsistent starting pitching for much of the year when they had Arrietta, Hunter and Matusz in the rotation. That's why they called up Gonzalez, Britton, and Tillman as the article mentioned. Their blueprint makes perfect sense, they win close games due to their ability to shorten the game or keep it close and hit timely home runs. They win close games and lose blow outs and that makes their run differential look bad. Let me give you an easy example of why run differential can be deceiving. Last night in a 4-0 game we put in Perdomo and Burnett. This caused the game to end 9-1, an additional -4 to our run differential. If Gardy put in Burton and Perkins instead or even Fien and Duensing, wouldn't the game have ended more likely in the 4-1 or 5-1 range? Instead of just looking at numbers and saying it's luck why not actually understand why it's happening.

I thought this was a great article. I had mentioned in another thread that I would take the Orioles blueprint and use it for 2013 because I felt it was the closest route to possible contention. Obviously there is some luck involved but I think the Orioles have a sound blueprint. They do two things very well. They shorten games with their bullpen and they hit the ball out of the park. The reason they have a negative run differential is because they have an inconsistent rotation which causes them to get blown out, Like we did to them 19-7 earlier this year. They will obviously also try to improve their rotation this offseason. Couple stats I wanted to bring up. The 4 division leaders (with the Orioles and Yankees being tied) are 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th in the AL in home runs. They are 5th, 6th, 8th and 9th in team ERA in the AL. 4 of the 5 worst records in the AL (Twins, Royals, Indians and Mariners) have hit the least home runs in the AL (significant margin). I think our bullpen is pretty close but we need to have more power in the lineup. The fact that 4-5 spots in the lineup for most of the season showed zero to little power hurt the team almost as much as the pitching did.

You're right, there is a chance we may be dissapointed by the return for Span (if he's traded), but if you look through every team's lineup, Denard, when healthy, is a top 10 leadoff hitter. He is also an above average center fielder with above average speed. The ONLY question mark is, can he stay healthy? Well the concussion last year came on a freak play and the injury he has currently came while making a diving catch. So if I were a GM, I would say it's not necessarily that big of a risk, the injuries came from playing hard, it's not something chronic. Let's say for argument's sake that Span's return is 1 decent AA pitcher and 1 A ball pitcher with more upside, then there would be a competition for 2 spots instead of 1 between Hendriks, Deduno, Devries, and Gibson. The goal should be the most 5 consistent starters that can hold an ERA in the 4 range, get to the 6th or 7th consistently and turn it over to the bullpen. Diamond and Villanueva have been consistent this year at doing this, we just need the other 3 starters to do the same. And thanks , as a previous poster mentioned, I tried to put a lot of thought behind this offseason plan. I wanted it to be as realistic and logical as possible. I didn't want to be another guy that said sign Greinke, Marcum and Jackson or trade Willingham, Span, Morneau and Revere. I wanted to take a good blueprint for success that we can follow in 2013, while still leaving room for rebuilding mid season in case it fails.

This may be true but I have facts that support otherwise: 1. Randall Delgado was to be traded for Ryan Dempster (a rental), til Dempster rejected the trade, so he is obviously able to be acquired 2. Jacob Turner (a higher level prospect than Delgado) along with Rob Brantly (a good catching prospect) was traded for Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez (most likely a rental), so teams will pull the trigger if it makes sense 3. It makes sense because the Braves will have a void at CF/Leadoff with Bourn leaving and they also don't have any good right handed bullpen arms to get to Venters and Kimbrel, along with the fact they are on a limited budget so the salaries will fit. 4. The Braves are stacked in pitching, where will he pitch? They have Tim Hudson, Paul Maholm, Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy coming off Tommy John, Julio Teheran (a higher rated, younger prospect) and 3 other top 10 pitching prospects in their organization at AA or higher. 5. Delgado is coming off a year that he struggled and got demoted to AAA. It may require Burton instead of Burnett but I think he's able to be acquired for.. It's not that much of a reach

I agree, Butera in there bugs me too. But it is highly likely they will carry a 3rd catcher. My alternative was signing a Kelly Shoppach type player for 1-1.5M but I would think Butera is more likely. As far as the rotation, I know Diamond isn't close to a #1 but I just have it stacked that way. As I stated at the end of my original post, I was looking at an Orioles type blueprint. Jason Hammel isn't a #1, nor is Wei-Yin Chen, they're both #3 type starters. I would say Diamond and Villanueva are comparable pitchers as far as effectiveness. I'm hoping Delgado can develop and that Baker can have a similar recovery to Wainwright, struggle a bit early in the season and then find himself by June or so. The #5 spot will be a battle, and of course there will still be that additional depth in AAA. I just don't see the purpose of signing another Pavano type pitcher, I'd rather gamble on a closer and try to shorten games. I'm not saying this is all going to work, but I'd be okay with this type plan.