JP3700

Feldman isn't an ace, but he is a good bet to be worth his contract. Although he is slightly below average at missing bats (6.54 K/9), he backs that up with a high GB% (49.6%), a low LD% (18.9%) and good walk rate (2.77 BB/9). I just don't think this is the year to go all in. With patience, we can be the Cardinals of 2016. A legit ace (Scherzer), a couple of star veteran players (Mauer,Cuddyer), productive low cost everyday players (Buxton,Sano,etc.), young power arms in the rotation and bullpen (Meyer,Gibson,Berrios,Tonkin,Jones,Melotakis,etc.) and a strong farm system (2014 1st round pick,Stewart,Thorpe,Polanco,Kepler,etc.)

Worley, Diamond, Hendriks and Albers would all be competing for a spot in the rotation in ST. Barring injury, I just feel that these guys are the best 5 going into the season. Worley and Diamond are both out of options so they would be DFA or traded. To answer your question, I don't have much faith in Worley. He relies on called strikes and we don't have a plus receiver like Ruiz. I'd say he'd be #9 on my depth chart heading into ST so he'd have to really impress. I think he still have some value this off season to an NL team looking for a bounce back season. Brewers would be a great fit for him with Lucroy as his catcher.

Thanks. I am not a big fan of this year's FA class but I picked the 2 pitchers I felt had the most upside without committing too many years. I wanted to be able to go all in on Scherzer in 2015 while still getting some value in 2014. As for Loney, I haven't read any predictions that he'd get more than one year. The consensus is that he gets penalized for lacking power. Obviously, I could be wrong. If he ends up being a good fit and Mauer is able to catch through 2016, I would probably look to extend him mid-season for 2 years and pass on Cuddyer in the offseason. Then Mauer can slide into 1st base in 2017 for the last 2 years of his contract with Pinto and Stuart Turner sharing the catching duties.

Yeah, seven years is more than I'd like but the only projection I've seen is 7yrs,$150M from a fangraphs chat. So I kept the years at 7 and overpaid a little to ensure he signs. We'd be getting his age 30-36 seasons so I'm hoping for an ace for the first 4 years, with decline in the last 3. Couple of other factors are that he'd be a great leader for a young pitching staff and that the 7 years fits with when Buxton, Sano and Meyer will start to get expensive.

Transactions - Sign Scott Feldman to a 2 year, $18M deal w/ a $9M vesting option if he hits 350IP over the 2 years. - Sign Scott Kazmir to a 2 year, $17M deal. - Sign A.J. Pierzynski to a 1 year, $8M deal. 40 Man Roster C A.J. Pierzynski - $8M (1yr,$8M) 1B Joe Mauer - $23M (5yrs,$115M) 2B Brian Dozier 3B Trevor Plouffe - $2M (Arb 1,Super 2) SS Pedro Florimon LF Josh Willingham - $7M (1yr,$7M) CF Alex Presley RF Oswaldo Arcia DH Ryan Doumit - $3.5M (1yr,$3.5M) C Eric Fryer 1B/OF Chris Colabello IF Eduardo Escobar OF Darin Mastroianni C Josmil Pinto AAA C Chris Herrmann AAA 1B Kennys Vargas AA 2B Jorge Polanco A+ SS Danny Santana AAA CF Aaron Hicks AAA OF/1B Max Kepler A+ SP1 Scott Feldman - $9M (2yrs,$18M w/ $9M vesting option in 2016) SP2 Scott Kazmir - $8.5M (2yrs,$17M) SP3 Kevin Correia - $5.5M (1yr,$5.5M) SP4 Samuel Deduno SP5 Kyle Gibson SP Andrew Albers AAA SP Liam Hendriks AAA SP Trevor May AAA SP Alex Wimmers AA CL Glen Perkins - $4M (2yrs,$8M w/ $4.5M club option in 2016) SU Jared Burton - $3.25M (1yr,$3.25M w/ $3.6M club option in 2015) MR Brian Duensing - $2M (Arb 2) MR Casey Fien MR Caleb Thielbar MR Michael Tonkin LM Anthony Swarzak - $1M (Arb 1) CL Duke Welker AAA SU Lester Oliveros AAA MR Ryan Pressly AAA MR Edgar Ibarra AAA 2014 Opening Day Payroll : $84M Transactions - Sign Max Scherzer to a 7 year, $175M deal. - Sign Russell Martin to a 3 year, $30M deal. 25 Man Roster C Russell Martin - $10M (3yrs,$30M) 1B Joe Mauer - $23M (4yrs,$92M) 2B Brian Dozier 3B Miguel Sano SS Pedro Florimon LF Eddie Rosario CF Byron Buxton RF Aaron Hicks DH Oswaldo Arcia C Josmil Pinto IF Danny Santana UT Trevor Plouffe - $4M (Arb 2,Super 2) OF Alex Presley - $2M (Arb 1,Super 2) SP1 Max Scherzer - $25M (7yrs,$175M) SP2 Scott Kazmir - $8.5M (1yr,$8.5M) SP3 Scott Feldman - $9M (1yr,$9M w/ $9M vesting option in 2016) SP4 Kyle Gibson SP5 Alex Meyer CL Glen Perkins - $4M (1yr,$4M w/ $4.5 club option in 2016) SU Michael Tonkin MR Casey Fien - $1.5M (Arb 1,Super 2) MR Caleb Thielbar MR Lester Oliveros MR Edgar Ibarra LM Trevor May 2015 Opening Day Payroll : $95M Transactions It's hard to guess who will be available in trades and free agency in 2+ years, but it's safe to say that the organization will be in good shape. Payroll should surpass $100M so there will be some flexibility to add via trade or free agency. Perhaps another front line starter or a stud shortstop. 25 Man Roster C Russell Martin - $10M (2yrs,$20M) 1B Joe Mauer - $23M (3yrs,$69M) 2B Brian Dozier - $3.5M (Arb 1) 3B Miguel Sano SS Pedro Florimon - $1.5M (Arb 1) LF Eddie Rosario CF Byron Buxton RF Aaron Hicks DH Oswaldo Arcia C Josmil Pinto 1B Kennys Vargas IF Danny Santana UT Trevor Plouffe - $5M (Arb 3,Super 2) SP1 Max Scherzer - $25M (6yrs,$150M) SP2 Alex Meyer SP3 Kyle Gibson SP4 Scott Feldman - $9M (1yr,$9M) SP5 Jose Berrios CL Glen Perkins - $4.5M (1yr,$4.5M) SU Michael Tonkin MR Zack Jones MR Mason Melotakis MR Lester Oliveros MR Miguel Sulbaran LM Trevor May 2016 Opening Day Payroll : $90M+

Harper, Trout and Machado joined contending teams. They were called up to supplement the talent that was already there, not to carry the team. I think it would be wise to continue to let Sano and Buxton develop in the minors and save the 6+ years of guaranteed team control on years where our pitching staff doesn't include five #5 starters. It's tough on young prospects to be expected to carry a team, no matter how highly touted they are. Just take a look at the Royals.

Why was Duensing not in with two lefties coming up? I just don't understand..

I haven't checked minor league stats to compare but a good comp off the top of my head would be Drew Stubbs. Power, speed, defense and a lot of strikeouts. I know Drew grew into his power, Joe has already shown a lot of power in the minors. Drew is on another level as far as speed though.

As I stated in another thread, I don't mind the approach, but I do question the players. I was one of the many that said.. if I were the GM.. I'd go after a Sanchez, Marcum or Jackson. It's now clear that it's not going to happen nor was it ever going to, which is fine. I understand that we are rebuilding and short-term, low risk contracts is the safe path to take. I loved the trades, but we invested $14+ million into Correia and Pelfrey. An "innings eater" and a guy coming off injury with upside. Why didn't we invest $17 million into Haren and Lannan.. a better guy coming off injury and a better "innings eater". Both were available in trades.. one for most likely a D prospect with upside and the other as a cherry on top to the Span trade. Haren Diamond Worley Lannan Hendriks Gibson, Deduno, DeVries Suddenly the state of the starting corps looks a lot better while investing about the same amount of money. Obviously I'm using hindsight, but I don't think I'm being unreasonable.

I like the idea and the numbers look good. The thing is.. the Yankees claimed him the first time around which means the Twins passed on him. I don't see them changing their mind the second time around.

I believe Vance Worley is at 1.152 and Mike Pelfrey 5.122 in service time. I also wanted to say thanks for the great work and continuous updates. It's much appreciated.

The problem isn't necessarily the approach, I think people are more upset at the players. I think the proper approach would have been acquiring assets to help the rebuilding process. We could have traded peanuts for Haren's option year. Added Lannan to the Span trade and paid him $5 million in arbitration with just a 1 year commitment. Sign higher upside arms like Villanueva, Jurrjens and maybe even Liriano to Pelfrey type deals. We could technically still sign Marcum to a multi-year deal in hopes he has a big year.. imagine his trade value if he puts up a big year. Heck, I wouldn't mind signing Bourn to a 1 year deal in hopes he can bring back a good return at the deadline. It's about acquiring assets at low risks. I didn't like the second year of the Correia contract but other than that I understand the approach. I've already said I love the Pelfrey signing, but I also can understand why some people are upset, especially over the Correia contract.

Impossible to know, but I guess one can argue that the additional stress on the elbow could have caused the injury.

Pelfrey changed his approach in 2012. He started throwing more cutters and curveballs to go with his sinker. It led to a better swinging strike rate along with an improved strikeout/walk ratio. I know 20 innings is a small sample size, but at least there are approach based metrics that explain the improved results prior to Tommy John. I actually love this signing.

I would rather sign Myers and Villanueva to similar contracts/money and keep Perkins.

Although I like the idea. Corner infield power isn't really a problem right now. With Plouffe, Morneau and Parmelee. Along with possibly Sano, Vargas and Harrison in the future. With the Mariners missing out on Hamilton, my hope is that they also miss out on Swisher and become desperate for that power bat they've been seeking. That's when we jump in with Willingham, and look for a package similar to the Revere deal. Maybe a return of Brandon Maurer and Hector Noesi

I don't love the signing, but I don't hate it either. Low risk, low reward. With Diamond and Correia in the rotation our infield defense better be sharp. Hopefully this means TR is loading up $12-15 million per for a Sanchez, Marcum or Jackson. I'm not holding my breath though.

Let me start off by saying that I'd like to sign Sanchez and Marcum and call it a day, but that doesn't look like a possibility, so I decided to take a different approach. Now that the Span and Revere trades are out of the way, these would be my corresponding moves..... Sign Stephen Drew to a three year, $25 million contract. Year 1: $7.5 million Year 2: $8.5 million Year 3: $9 million Sign Andres Torres to a one year, $1 million contract, with up to $500,000 in incentives Sign Carlos Villanueva to a one year, $5 million contract. Includes a second year club option of $8 million, with a $1 million buyout. Sign Jair Jurrjens to a one year, $5 million contract. CF Andres Torres 1M SS Stephen Drew 7.5M C Joe Mauer 23M LF Josh Willingham 7M 1B Justin Morneau 14M DH Ryan Doumit 3.5M 3B Trevor Plouffe RF Chris Parmelee 2B Brian Dozier IF Jamey Carroll 3.75M Utility Eduardo Escobar OF Darin Mastroianni C Drew Butera Scott Diamond Vance Worley Carlos Villanueva 5M Jair Jurrjens 5M Liam Hendriks Glen Perkins 2.5M Jared Burton 2M Brian Duensing 1.5M Casey Fien Tyler Robertson Josh Roenicke Ryan Pressly Nick Blackburn 5.5M Matt Capps .25M Why? Now that we have a young core of starting pitching, I wanted to address the shortstop position. Sure, giving $25 million to a guy coming off a major injury is risky, but I'm buying his production prior to the injury and late in the 2012 season. If he performs at or near his ability, $25 million over three years would be a bargain. With the Andres Torres signing, I'm essentially investing an additional $1 - 1.5 million into the development of Aaron Hicks. Torres is coming off 2 down years, but he can still get on base a third of the time, steal some bases and play a good center field. He and Mastro would compete for the starting gig. I went after Villanueva and Jurrjens because of the upside. Villanueva wants to find a place where he can start and I see him as a poor man's Shaun Marcum. The big knock on him is that he gives up a healthy amount of long balls (especially to left handed batters). That leads me to believe that Target Field would be a good fit for him. As for Jurrjens, he is coming off a horrific year, but he's had success in the past. Another reason why I like him is because he still has one more arbitration year. If either pitcher pitches well, they could serve as good trade chips, especially with the extra year of control with the club option and arbitration. This roster would have a salary of roughly $88 million, which is about where I think it will be once all is said and done. There should be a healthy amount of trade chips with Morneau, Willingham, Doumit and possibly Villanueva and/or Jurrjens. Assuming all these players are either traded or not re signed, let's take a look at 2014 (not including possible returns from trades)..... C Joe Mauer 1B Chris Parmelee 2B Brian Dozier 3B Trevor Plouffe SS Stephen Drew LF Joe Benson CF Aaron Hicks RF Oswaldo Arcia DH C/OF Chris Herrmann IF Eduardo Escobar OF Darin Mastroianni Kyle Gibson Scott Diamond Vance Worley Trevor May Liam Hendriks B.J. Hermsen Pedro Hernandez Alex Meyer Glen Perkins Jared Burton Brian Duensing With less than $40 million committed to payroll and only 3 players eligible for arbitration, that leaves a lot of room to add around the young talent.

Very well stated. I completely agree. Marcum, McCarthy, Myers, Liriano and Villanueva are guys that can be had on 1-2 year deals and have the upside to be able to get a decent to good return in a future trade.

I love Jake Arrieta and Zach Britton. Young power pitchers. Peripherals look a lot better than their results. I would take a shot at one, or both of them.

Here's a link to an article about a few Rule 5 eligible prospects. Odubel Herrera sounds interesting.

I agree. 2 years, $16 million with up to $3 million in incentives each year based on IP. I'd also add a third year vesting option.

It's really tough to predict the type of contract a player will get, but considering his own demands are 6 years, $90 million, I would say that's most likely the ceiling to what he'll receive. I don't see the benefit of coming out and saying it, if he expected more. I even read an article saying 4 years, $68 million today, so no one really knows. $80 million guaranteed over 5 years seems reasonable, along with that possible 6th year for the $90 million he wants. As for the trade, Cingrani is the center piece, not Gregorius. I've read Span for the two, straight up, but I think Carroll at $1.75 million to help replace the loss of Rolen, Cairo and Valdez would balance the trade. Do I think it's more likely Ryan goes after Blanton, Myers and Feldman as his three pitchers? Sure, I am a Twins fan.. . But, I wanted to paint a picture why this route would make better sense, obviously in my own opinion.

Other than perhaps the Rays, I don't see a fit for Parmelee in a package with Span. Even in that scenario, Parm is coming off a season where he had a sub .700 OPS, and I'm sure the Rays will point that out. I just don't see him significantly increasing the value of a trade at this point. Let's even say Span + Parmelee could retrieve Shields. Doesn't McCarthy, Parmelee, Cingrani and Gregorius sound better than Shields on his own?

Just tempering expectations. It would be an increase of 4-9 wins. There's room to be better with some good luck, improvement from some of the young players, and minimal injuries. It's definitely aimed more towards 2014, while still being competitive in 2013. I agree the defense projects to be bad but Mastroianni and Escobar would be great defensive subs when the team has a lead. I actually don't think anyone played too far out of their norm on offense last year. Our main guys just weren't ravaged with injuries, although the pitching staff made up for that. That would be more of my concern, but injuries are impossible to predict. The reason why I added the outlook is I wanted to show the flexibility going into 2014. With Sanchez and McCarthy at the top of the rotation, young pitchers like Gibson, Diamond, Cingrani, Hendriks, Hermsen and Hernandez also in the mix, we have a lot of wiggle room and some cash to spend. Using the example of Parm being a bust, as Brock mentioned, hopefully Arcia or Hicks steps up and takes over RF. Then we could move Mauer to 1B and maybe go after a Carlos Ruiz. Doumit would still be under contract and could split time with Herrmann and/or Pinto. There would be options. It could also be Plouffe, Dozier or Gregorius that are busts, maybe even all the above, but we could see what we have with these young players, then address it in 2014.