JP3700

Ah, you beat me to it. I was planning on writing a blog tonight on comparing Diamond to Worley. To summarize: Diamond gets more swings out of the zone, more ground balls, fewer line drives, more swings and misses and walks fewer batters. I have also seen a lot of mention of Worley's injury. Diamond had the same surgery to remove bone chips as Worley did and he had his over three months later. Yet, Worley gets the benefit of the doubt and Diamond doesn't.

Thanks for the post. Appreciate all the news and updates you two (giving cmb some credit too) bring us about prospects and the upcoming draft. I really liked the Twins' draft. My favorite was the Stuart Turner pick. Defensive catchers seem to be where the game is going. As long as the bat comes along, looks like he could be a good one.

Great trade for the White Sox. I wonder if TR is still telling teams Perkins is unavailable. Davidson is the same level prospect as Owings and Gregorious (when he was a prospect). Considering Perkins is better than Reed, the Twins may have been able to get one of their shortstops and an additional prospect or two.

I'm on the side of thinking that Deduno has the ability to be an MLB starter. My concern is durability. In 10 professional seasons he's never pitched more than 150 innings. In 2012 he was on the DL for 45 days and finished the season with an eye injury. 2013 he started the season on the DL and finished the season having shoulder surgery. That's not a good trend.

Joyce is projected to make $3.7M and has two years of control remaining. I like him as well, but he would need a platoon partner. Plouffe would be a viable option, but he is currently the everyday third baseman. It would take some additional moves to clear some of the current OF/DH options and acquire an everyday third baseman, but it could be done. I'd give the Brewers a call to see if they're interested in moving Aramis Ramirez and his salary. Seems like he would a good fit as a stop gap to Sano. He could convert to DH when the man-beast is ready.

I pretty much agree with all of this. I like Pressly a little more than I probably should though. He's 25 with good stuff. It was his first full year as a reliever, so I think he still has potential. He needs to miss more bats though. If these teams were to talk, I think Tampa would hold out for Fien. He's very underrated and I'd think Tampa knows that. I'm sure they love his elite K/BB rate. With the depth currently in the bullpen and the glut of power arms coming up in the system, I think I'd make that trade. It's close though cause I like me some Casey Fien.

The signing itself isn't the problem. In fact, I think there's a good chance that he's worth his contract. In the five years where he pitched a full season, Pelfrey has averaged between 1.1 - 1.8 WAR a year depending on if you use BR or FG. If he is somewhere in the middle and is worth 1.5 WAR each of the two years he's signed, then he is worth every penny. The problem is that I don't know what direction the team is going. Pelfrey at his best takes the team from 76 to 78 wins, and that win projection may already be optimistic. This is assuming that Pelfrey will be at his best and the other options are replacement level. Both of which aren't even close to being a given. More important is that Pelfrey isn't an asset. Teams aren't lining up to acquire 30+ year old below league average starters. You can find those guys every year on the free agent market. However, teams will give you a call about young, cost controlled pitching and possibly offer some real value. If the team were in need for a back end starter to fill out the rotation on a contending team, then this move would make perfect sense. But in the position they are in, it makes more sense to give innings to Gibson, Worley and Diamond. Go for it or build for the future. Attempting to reach mediocrity shouldn't be the goal.

Not an elite defender, but he's not bad. Above average at framing, good at blocking pitches, and poor at throwing out base stealers. Lobaton is just the odd man out after Tampa resigned Molina and then traded for Hanigan. They highly value pitch framing and those guys are two of the best at it. FWIW Matt Moore liked him as his personal catcher over Molina. Here's a quote from Moore on Lobaton.. "I love when Lobaton catches. He can come out there and tell me something to get me giggling or he can come out there and get after me a little bit. It's big for me to have him back there. He sacrifices his body every night for me... He's back there working, protecting the umpire and getting me stuff. It's big for me having him back there." It makes sense though since Moore is a wild pitch machine. This is the big thing. Catchers who can hit are very rare. In 2013 Lobaton was 1 of 14 catchers who caught 700+ innings and provided above league average offense. Out of those 14, he was only 1 of 7 who was rated above average at pitch framing. Catchers who can hit and defend are even more rare. He and Pinto could form for a nice tandem and stabilize the catcher position for at least the next few years. Not the huge, bold move that people are looking for. Just one of those moves that help you become a winning team.

Per MLBTradeRumors.. "Also from Topkin's article, the Rays will now turn their attention to adding bench and bullpen pieces with catcher Jose Lobaton and outfielder Matt Joyce as possible trade chips." With threads discussing catching, trades and bullpen pieces this seems like the perfect storm. Lobaton is a 29 year old catcher with 4 years of team control remaining. He's arbitration eligible for the first time this year as a Super 2 player. MLBTradeRumors projected him to earn $1M through arbitration. Lobaton is a switch hitter with relatively neutral career splits, although he was better from the left side in 2013. He was slightly above league average in 2013 posting a 103 wRC+ with a .249/.320/.394 slash line. Defensively Lobaton has been credited with only 2 passed balls in his 1312.2 innings of work. While not spectacular at pitch framing, Lobaton doesn't cost his team in that department. He was rated at (0.3) RAA. Compared to free agents Suzuki (-9.1) RAA and Buck (-20.4) RAA. The knock on him defensively is his throwing arm. Over his career Lobaton has thrown out just 22 of 136 attempted basestealers (16%). Looks like a trade that could match up well for both teams.

I like the idea of a trade. Relievers seem to have quite a bit of value. Jerry Blevins just landed the A's a nice prospect. Worley and Diamond should still have some value as well. Both have had MLB success, are still young and cost controlled.

Very well stated. I just don't understand the direction they are going. It's like they're stuck in the middle.

A little off topic, but I just don't get the disdain towards Ryan Doumit. I've read on and on about how bad Doumit is behind the plate, and in the outfield (which I agree with). But, now I keep seeing suggestions of replacing him with inferior players. First it was John Buck. An equally inept catcher who sports a career wRC+ of 85 compared to Doumit's 104. Now it's Kubel. Who has a career wRC+ of 107 compared to Doumit's 104. Kubel's career UZR/150 in the outfield is (-15.0) compared to Doumit's (-10.6). So it's not like he's bringing in any additional defensive value. If anything, Kubel's even worse. Doumit is essentially John Buck and Jason Kubel merged together. A switch hitter who's a poor defensive catcher/outfielder that hits above league average. Yet, the Twins should replace him with guys who do half of what he does? I'm all for upgrading the team. But, you could do a lot worse than Ryan Doumit. You could have John Buck or Jason Kubel instead.

This is just pure speculation on my part. But if Arroyo did indeed say that he would have taken the qualifying offer. I'd think the AAV on deals that have been discussed is closer to $10M than it is $14M.

This isn't necessarily a response to your comment as much as it is to show that Kubel has shown signs of decline the last two years. Last three years from 2011-2013: K%: 21.4 - 26.4 - 31.7 SwStr%: 7.6 - 11.0 - 13.7 Z-Contact%: 89.6 - 81.9 - 76.4 Those are some glaring numbers. As has been mentioned. There's really no risk to the signing. I would just keep my expectations very low.

ND-Fan This was in the first paragraph "a grade on how each team has done up to this point". Otherwise every team would have an incomplete.

Best news of the day. Thanks for the update

Last year they had Ibanez, Morse and Morales to go along with Montero and Smoak. It's what they do.

A little late to the party, but I just wanted to thank the OP for the thread and the effort put into it. I like the optimism. My take on this is that it isn't unreasonable to put a winning team out there. But I wouldn't do it by making huge bold moves that could really harm your future. You just have to cut some corners, spend some money in the short term and think a little out of the box. Right now, simple math tells me that the Twins project to be about a 76 win team. All I did was project Nolasco and Hughes to be league average pitchers (+4 WAR) who would take up the roughly 380 IP by Worley, Diamond, Hernandez, Hendriks, Gibson, Walters and DeVries (-6 WAR). Easy math tells me that's 10 wins + the 66 from last year. You could go into projecting some growth by some players, but you could also go into possible regression by others. You also take into account that Mauer is losing positional value by moving to first base, I think the 76 win projection is fair. I know some people will disagree with me and say the Twins could spend more, but I think a reasonable projection is $95-100 million maximum. Currently the team is at about $78.5M. This is what could be done.. First. Be pretty aggressive with Stephen Drew. Offer him a 3 year deal worth $36M and backload it. Say $6M the first year and $15M the two following years. Then go after a big bat. Someone like Aramis Ramirez. He's 35, but he can still rake. Being able to DH should also help him stay healthy. He's owed $16M this year but $6M of that is deferred so it would essentially be $10M for this season. He has a $4M buyout next year on a mutual option at $14M. The Brewers are very tight on money and would likely want to get out of that commitment. You'd have to offer some value though, in addition to it being salary relief. Say Vance Worley and a young prospect with upside. Someone like Zach Larson comes to mind. A 20 year old toolsy outfielder. The last piece would be to add a starting pitcher. You could get aggressive with a Matt Garza on a backloaded 4 year deal in the $60M range. Let's say $9M the first year and $17M in the final three years. Perhaps you add a 5th year option to sweeten the deal. You could also wait out the market a bit and hope the price drops on let's say Ubaldo Jimenez. Perhaps somewhere in the 3 year, $39-42M range with an option for a fourth year. You'd also have to backload it. Something like $9M the first year and $15M in the final two. Somewhere along the way, I'd be shopping Doumit and Burton or Duensing to clear some salary. If you could shed about $5-6M, then you'd be right about $97-98M. You've lost a draft pick or two and a prospect with some upside but you haven't hurt yourself too, too much. You can use Parmelee and Plouffe as a platoon which would also platoon Ramirez and Willingham in the DH role. When Parmelee starts in the OF, Willingham is the DH. When Plouffe starts at 3B, Ramirez is the DH. The team looks something like this.. 1. SS Drew / 2B Dozier 2. 1B Mauer 3. DH/LF Willingham 4. 3B/DH Ramirez 5. RF Arcia 6. LF Parmelee / 3B Plouffe 7. 2B Dozier / SS Drew 8. C Pinto 9. CF Presley / Mastroianni SP1 Garza / Jimenez SP2 Nolasco SP3 Hughes SP4 Correia SP5 Deduno / Gibson Now you can project a 83-85 win team. With some breaks, bounce backs, growth and help from the minors, you could be looking at buying at the deadline and possibly making a push. I can't say I'd advocate something like this, nor is it something I think will happen. But a plan similar to this is something I'd get behind. We all want to see the team win ASAP. Just wouldn't want to wreck the future getting there.

A lot of great thought and insight here. This is my final take on what has been said. I agree that it is a close decision on whether or not to sign Drew. The reasons are because it will cost a draft pick, the money attached to it and also because the Twins window may not start for two to three years. My issue is with the thought that Drew isn't a significant upgrade and that he's not worth the money. If the Twins were a 85-90 win team, this decision would be a slam dunk. On the Florimon to Iglesias comp. It is a fair comp due to the fact that they are both light hitting defensive specialists. The difference is that Iglesias understands that he's a light hitting shortstop. Iglesias puts the ball in play and gets on base. He led the AL with 35 infield hits. My issue with Florimon is his approach at the plate. He's a guy who has 40 power and 60 speed who hits like he has 60 power and 40 speed. What's even more frustrating is that he doesn't change his approach. It could be 0-2 and he's still swinging for the fences. I like home runs as much as the next guy, but I'll trade a few home runs for some on base %. A .278 OBP just doesn't cut it. And when you're striking out 25% of the time, you leave yourself little room for improvement. Can he improve? Sure. But at this stage of his career I don't think it's likely.

If you wouldn't sign a three+ win player for a bag of balls, then your team is never going to get anywhere. Using a 54 AB sample size? Using a two year sample size for Drew and only one for Florimon? Which conveniently includes Drew's outlier year in 2012 where he hit .223/.309/.348 coming off of an injury compared to his career line of .264/.329/.435. A .611 OPS isn't much different than a .776 OPS? You're using Baseball Reference when you refer to dWAR. BR uses RZR as their defensive metric. UZR is a much more accurate measure of defense because it includes RZR and other factors. Here are Fangraphs measures on the two players.. Drew UZR: 5.3 Florimon UZR: 4.3 Drew WAR: 3.4 Florimon WAR: 1.3 What in Florimon's history indicates to you that he will have this kind of improvement at the plate? The thing is, I like Florimon. He's a useful player. But Drew is a significant upgrade over Florimon.

I'm fully aware of his splits. There are a couple of pitchers on their current roster that pitch better at home as well. The point is, pitchers have to alter the way they pitch in Colorado, which may alter the way they pitch outside of that park. I've heard of instances where pitchers get out of whack for a few starts after a start in Colorado. The conditions in Colorado are not neutral to other parks. I will agree that rankings are not the end all be all, but they do give you a good gauge on talent. I'll take my chances with talent.

Well then hopefully I've swayed you a little to the dark side..

You're missing the point. As recently as 2012 he was ranked that high, which means there's talent there. There would be plenty of examples of quality pitchers who would have never made it if you judged them based on their first 130 IP. Especially if they had pitched in Colorado. Diamond like performance? His K% in the majors is 18.7 vs. Diamond's 10.9. He's coming off a year where he put up a 26.2K% in AAA. Why are you bringing up Sano and Buxton when I was comparing pitchers? And why are you boasting their rankings, to then show evidence that top prospects bust.. Some prospects bust, some make it. This is a given. You can bring up plenty of examples of both.

Completely undervaluing Pomeranz. He was the #30 ranked prospect going into 2012, according to baseball america. No current Twins pitching propect has ever been ranked that high. He's just 25, a full year younger than Kyle Gibson. Pretty sure Beane is betting that getting out of Colorado and going to Oakland will significantly make a difference.