Matt Garza?!

[johnnydakota]

Mediocre or bust? Lets look at that word mediocre, it means average? slightly above or below.

If we have a starting rotaion that is mediocre, that would mean it is ranked some where between 13th and 18th....a big jump from worst in all of baseball, so I to say ....

Mediocre or Bust

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Nolasco is just as good a pitcher as Garza in my book and, on top of that, he may cost less. Garza is only one year younger and has some injury questions.

 

Nolasco:

2013- 3.58xfip; 3.0 WAR

2012*- 4.17xfip; 2.5 WAR

2011-3.55xfip, 3.1 WAR

 

* This is the only time his xfip has exceeded 3.7 in the past 5 years.

 

Garza

2013-3.73xfip, 2.0WAR

2012-3.59xfip, 1.1 WAR

2011*-3.19xfip, 4.9 WAR

 

* Big statistic outlier where performace peaked.

 

I'd choose Garza given the choice since his fastball is about 3mph faster than Nolasco's and has been much more effective. The xfip numbers are pretty similar and neither have pitched in the AL for some time (Nolasco never). Jimenez is better than both, however, since he has pitched in the AL Central, been a workhorse, induces more strikeouts, and the youngest.

 

Those guys are about all in the same tier, but to summarize my rankings.

1. Jimenez

2. Garza

3. Nolasco

 

I'd give 4 million/yr more to Jimenez than Nolasco.

1.5 million/year more to Garza than Nolasco.

 

Jimenez I could give a 5 year too, but Garza and Nolasco probably 4.

 

In comparing Jimenez to Sanchez I think his value is a little less. I'd set the max offer to 5/85 for him. Going by what I said earlier, that's 4/52 for Nolasco and 4/58 for Garza. They'll probably need a little more considering the one year less, so I suppose you could round them to 4/55 and 4/60.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Weren't the Twins linked last year to Ryan Dempster for similar years/money, much like Arroyo this offseason? Maybe a little less strong, but I remember kicking the tires on Dempster.

 

And I thought I heard the Twins as possibilities for Edwin Jackson too -- again not as strong as some of these Nolasco reports, but then again, Nolasco is with a Twins-friendly agent and the Twins apparently haven't made a formal offer to anybody yet, so many of these reports sound premature.

 

The Garza talk sounds like lip service, maybe just driving his price up. Johan too, although he at least might have a bit of desperation on his side, which might make him a good match for these Twins.

[kab21]

Nolasco is just as good a pitcher as Garza in my book and, on top of that, he may cost less. Garza is only one year younger and has some injury questions.

 

Nolasco:

2013- 3.58xfip; 3.0 WAR

2012*- 4.17xfip; 2.5 WAR

2011-3.55xfip, 3.1 WAR

 

* This is the only time his xfip has exceeded 3.7 in the past 5 years.

 

Garza

2013-3.73xfip, 2.0WAR

2012-3.59xfip, 1.1 WAR

2011*-3.19xfip, 4.9 WAR

 

* Big statistic outlier where performace peaked.

 

I'd choose Garza given the choice since his fastball is about 3mph faster than Nolasco's and has been much more effective. The xfip numbers are pretty similar and neither have pitched in the AL for some time (Nolasco never). Jimenez is better than both, however, since he has pitched in the AL Central, been a workhorse, induces more strikeouts, and the youngest.

 

Those guys are about all in the same tier, but to summarize my rankings.

1. Jimenez

2. Garza

3. Nolasco

 

I'd give 4 million/yr more to Jimenez than Nolasco.

1.5 million/year more to Garza than Nolasco.

 

Jimenez I could give a 5 year too, but Garza and Nolasco probably 4.

 

In comparing Jimenez to Sanchez I think his value is a little less. I'd set the max offer to 5/85 for him. Going by what I said earlier, that's 4/52 for Nolasco and 4/58 for Garza. They'll probably need a little more considering the one year less, so I suppose you could round them to 4/55 and 4/60.

 

I think you are over relying on advanced stats. Nolasco has a 0.62 difference between his xFIP and his ERA over his career. I don't know why he underperforms xFIP but it's pretty clear that xFIP, FIP and fangraphs WAR are not the evaluation tools to use for Nolasco.

 

I also like Jimenez regardless of the 2nd rd draft pick required.

[Twins Twerp]

I DO NOT want to give up the second round pick. I think the Twins are thinking the same way. Go hard at Arroyo, Garza, and Nolasco. If you have to go five for Garza so be it. If we end up with 2 out of the three, I will be jacked. Also Arroyo's leadership for the next 2 years would be much needed when dealing with Meyer and May. Soft-tossers or not, they would all three be better than Diamond or Correia.

[DocBauer]

OMG, in this post at least, can we say drama queens?

 

"the sky is falling!" Lol

 

Attendence is down, despite advance ticket sales. Three seasons of not so great baseball have seen to that. Interest is still very high, and that is proven by the very blogs that each of us thrive for daily. Not to mention the new media revenue that is going to bring in an additional $25M to each team this next season and beyond. (52% of is another $13M to spend along with the roughly $24/25M the Twins have shed since last season) Do we need at this time to also remind one another of the $15-16M the Twins have expiring next off season?

 

The Pohlads have stated there is money to spend this season. TR, as per usual is attempting to be smart and playing things close to the vest, as he should, but has also hinted at actually spending real money!

 

With some decent talent at the MLB level, with one of the best minor league systems in all of baseball, attendance sliding (and revenue) and money to spend, you think TR and the Pohlads don't recognize an opportunity?

 

Even .500 baseball with great talent ready to break through is a HUGE commodity.

 

No formal offers yet? PLEASE. Rumors only yet people. NOBODY has made formal offers to anyone yet that we know of, with the exception of minor deals or their on FA's.

 

Just a little perspective while we wait and see.

[kab21]

I DO NOT want to give up the second round pick. I think the Twins are thinking the same way. Go hard at Arroyo, Garza, and Nolasco. If you have to go five for Garza so be it. If we end up with 2 out of the three, I will be jacked. Also Arroyo's leadership for the next 2 years would be much needed when dealing with Meyer and May. Soft-tossers or not, they would all three be better than Diamond or Correia.

 

You are greatly overvaluing a 2nd rd pick if you are going to eliminate some very good players from a very competitive FA market.

[cmb0252]

You are greatly overvaluing a 2nd rd pick if you are going to eliminate some very good players from a very competitive FA market.

 

Very good? Who is very good? Heck, who is good? This free agent class is horrid. While several of the pitchers are better then what we have, that isn't saying much, they won't turn this franchise around.

 

I'm a big draft person and I would hate to sacrifice a draft pick but for the right FA I don't mind. I just don't see anyone worth it.

[Major League Ready]

You are greatly overvaluing a 2nd rd pick if you are going to eliminate some very good players from a very competitive FA market.

 

Grant Paulsen from Baseball America was discussing the available FA pitchers on his radio show on MLB Radio yesterday. A caller asked if was worth it to give up a draft pick for this group of relatively weak and risky SPs. His answer was it depends on if you are contending or what point you are in a rebuild. He immediately followed that point with the Twins as an example of a team that should not be giving up draft picks at this point in a rebuild.

 

If we go back over the past 10 years, will we find any examples of teams in the Twins position in terms of rebuilding that signed free agent SPs that required 5 year deals? Pitchers on the wrong side of 3 tend to decline. Obviously, some perform at a high level into their late 30s but the odds are low. On the other hand, what happens if you sign Jimenez to 5 years at 17-18M and he goes back to an ERA+ in the 70s like he was in 2011-2012 or even worse as he approaches 35 years of age. You’re not trading him even if you give him away.

[DaveW]

Who was the last 2nd round pick the twins had who really made a difference?

[old nurse]

Who was the last 2nd round pick the twins had who really made a difference?

 

Butch Wynegar?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?team_ID=MIN&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round

 

Aren't Eades and Melo the number 2 starters of the future? Is Goodrum the shortstop of the future? Chargois the closer of the future?

Aren't 2 round picks useful in trades for player? Get something for a prospect you know isn't going to work before someone else realizes it?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Yeah, me too. I'm with ya, Brian, unless something else comes up. Mehhhh.

 

Replace the like button with a mehhhh button? Or perhaps have them both?

[Alex]

Who was the last 2nd round pick the twins had who really made a difference?

 

How about we change this to even first round pick that wasn't in the last two years?

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Butch Wynegar?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?team_ID=MIN&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round

 

Aren't Eades and Melo the number 2 starters of the future? Is Goodrum the shortstop of the future? Chargois the closer of the future?

Aren't 2 round picks useful in trades for player? Get something for a prospect you know isn't going to work before someone else realizes it?

 

The difference is Ubaldo already is a #2/#3 starter and Eades has a small chance of becoming one. Melotakis doesn't have a very high ceiling as a starter and the other two are nothing to get excited over. You trade a top 20-30 organization prospect for a good starter+contract (which shouldn't matter too much at this point).

[old nurse]

OMG, in this post at least, can we say drama queens?

 

"the sky is falling!" Lol

 

Attendence is down, despite advance ticket sales. Three seasons of not so great baseball have seen to that. Interest is still very high, and that is proven by the very blogs that each of us thrive for daily. Not to mention the new media revenue that is going to bring in an additional $25M to each team this next season and beyond. (52% of is another $13M to spend along with the roughly $24/25M the Twins have shed since last season) Do we need at this time to also remind one another of the $15-16M the Twins have expiring next off season?

 

The Pohlads have stated there is money to spend this season. TR, as per usual is attempting to be smart and playing things close to the vest, as he should, but has also hinted at actually spending real money!

 

With some decent talent at the MLB level, with one of the best minor league systems in all of baseball, attendance sliding (and revenue) and money to spend, you think TR and the Pohlads don't recognize an opportunity?

 

Even .500 baseball with great talent ready to break through is a HUGE commodity.

 

No formal offers yet? PLEASE. Rumors only yet people. NOBODY has made formal offers to anyone yet that we know of, with the exception of minor deals or their on FA's.

 

Just a little perspective while we wait and see.

 

A little perspective. Attendance soared after the 2 WS years. Attendance crept up a little for Molitor's farewell tour. Attendance crept up during the winning years in the dome but was nothing like the WS years. Target Field sold out because it was the new toy much like Target Center for the Timberwolves years ago. When it comes to baseball the town supports a winner. .500 is not that.

[Major League Ready]

Who was the last 2nd round pick the twins had who really made a difference?

 

The pick will be in the early 40s. If you look at the top prospects list on MLB, four of the top 15 fall right around that number. Four of the top 15 were international signings.

Tiajuan Walker (43)

Nick Castellanos (44)

N. Syndergaard (38)

Billy Hamilton (57)

 

The draft pick is really an additional reason not to sign 5 year guys, especially the group were talking about getting 5 years. (with the exception of Tanaka/Garza) The benefit is that IF the guy performs we get to 500 or even maybe a little better. They MIGHT make a 2-3 game difference if they really perform the way you hope. For those couple of wins you take on the risk of them being dead weight in the last couple years of their contracts when we could possibly be contending. The opportunity cost is the $18M that you could have invested to should be much improved by the presence of Meyer, Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Dozier,Rosario and May. No, they might not all pan out but the odds are pretty good with that group and some others. Do you want the salary to add when these players are contributing or now to a team that is still a couple years a way?

[jorgenswest]

I think you are over relying on advanced stats. Nolasco has a 0.62 difference between his xFIP and his ERA over his career. I don't know why he underperforms xFIP but it's pretty clear that xFIP, FIP and fangraphs WAR are not the evaluation tools to use for Nolasco.

 

I also like Jimenez regardless of the 2nd rd draft pick required.

 

Is it possible that the difference is due to the defense behind him? Isn't that the point of the FIP variations?

[maxisagod]

Butch Wynegar?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?team_ID=MIN&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round

 

Aren't Eades and Melo the number 2 starters of the future? Is Goodrum the shortstop of the future? Chargois the closer of the future?

Aren't 2 round picks useful in trades for player? Get something for a prospect you know isn't going to work before someone else realizes it?

 

Huh, Randy Bush only collected a 1.4 career war? Interesting. Second round picks, especially high second round picks have value, but the proper lens to look at it is through a trade. A trade for a large contact in which the Twins would have to give up a low minor guy with a high ceiling. One year out, a lot of those guys make top 20 prospect lists. Some free agents look like no brainers in that view, other guys it doesn't make sense.

 

What makes this year hard to figure out, is if the Twins are rebuilding, but there competitive timeline is a couple years out. Does it make sense to starting buying free agents with a competitive team around the corner or to keep collecting prospects till the team starts showing they're ready to win. Again if we were ready to compete next year or if we were 3 years out this would be a much easier answer. I'm inclined to lean toward option number three: Target free agents who don't cost draft picks (which it appears is the Twins plan too).

[TheLeviathan]

When it comes to baseball the town supports a winner. .500 is not that.

 

No, but it may slow the bleeding.

[ashbury]

Replace the like button with a mehhhh button? Or perhaps have them both?

 

Could go either way on that. Meh.

[goulik]

The pick will be in the early 40s. If you look at the top prospects list on MLB, four of the top 15 fall right around that number. Four of the top 15 were international signings.

Tiajuan Walker (43)

Nick Castellanos (44)

N. Syndergaard (38)

Billy Hamilton (57)

 

The draft pick is really an additional reason not to sign 5 year guys, especially the group were talking about getting 5 years. (with the exception of Tanaka/Garza) The benefit is that IF the guy performs we get to 500 or even maybe a little better. They MIGHT make a 2-3 game difference if they really perform the way you hope. For those couple of wins you take on the risk of them being dead weight in the last couple years of their contracts when we could possibly be contending. The opportunity cost is the $18M that you could have invested to should be much improved by the presence of Meyer, Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Dozier,Rosario and May. No, they might not all pan out but the odds are pretty good with that group and some others. Do you want the salary to add when these players are contributing or now to a team that is still a couple years a way?

 

I want it now for the following reasons:

1. As young talent comes up, you want them to be in a culture of winning not 90+ losses per year. Are they going to be winning 90 games a year? Probably not but you want them to be in a better culture than what we have had the last 3 years.

 

2. If we do not bring in a better product, attendance will sink even more, the budget will shrink and we won't have as much money to spend down the road.

 

3. Free Agents will be just as much a crap shoot down the road as this year so it is good to bring them in sooner than later so you can weed out the bad now instead of when you want to be winning World Series rings

 

4. The future budget will not be hurt by current spending because WE ARE THAT MUCH UNDER BUDGET RIGHT NOW! The 52% that has been thrown out says we have about 65 million to spend and I have yet to see a blueprint that spends 50 million AND we have 17 million (?) coming off the books next year. There should be NO fear of future budgets less than 5 years from now.

 

5. A more competitive team next year will make it easier to convince free agents to come next off season and put us over the hump.

 

There are probably other reasons I am not thinking of...

[Monkeypaws]

How old is Matt now? 29. Could we possibly imagine a fully matured Matt Garza returning to the Twins? I proposed it in jest when Delmon went back to the Jays, but hell, I'd overspend to get him back, maybe as an adult to boot.

[kab21]

Grant Paulsen from Baseball America was discussing the available FA pitchers on his radio show on MLB Radio yesterday. A caller asked if was worth it to give up a draft pick for this group of relatively weak and risky SPs. His answer was it depends on if you are contending or what point you are in a rebuild. He immediately followed that point with the Twins as an example of a team that should not be giving up draft picks at this point in a rebuild.

 

If we go back over the past 10 years, will we find any examples of teams in the Twins position in terms of rebuilding that signed free agent SPs that required 5 year deals? Pitchers on the wrong side of 3 tend to decline. Obviously, some perform at a high level into their late 30s but the odds are low. On the other hand, what happens if you sign Jimenez to 5 years at 17-18M and he goes back to an ERA+ in the 70s like he was in 2011-2012 or even worse as he approaches 35 years of age. You’re not trading him even if you give him away.

 

I disagree with Grant Paulson. The Twins have tons of prospects and losing a 2nd rd pick is in no way comparable to trading a top prospect (like Myers) for a good starter. That's a bad move for a rebuilding team. It would be greatly beneficial for a team like the Twins to have something resembling an MLB to start adding Sano/Buxton/Meyer/Stewart/Rosario/etc to. People talk about wasting Mauer's prime but at the same time the Twins are only guaranteed 6 yrs of these potential studs. I'm against spending 3 yrs trying to build a competitive team around them.

 

The problem if Ubaldo tanks has very little to do with the draft pick. It has everything to do with signing him to a long FA contract and that's an issue for every FA contract. If you want to avoid that then never go after FA's but that would be foolish for the Twins to completely avoid.

[kab21]

Is it possible that the difference is due to the defense behind him? Isn't that the point of the FIP variations?

 

It could be partly due to that but Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez pitched in front of the same defense for half a decade and consistently performed as good or better than their xFIP.

 

Some pitchers just crap the bed and there is enough data that says Nolasco might be one of those guys. Maybe he can't pitch out of the stretch well. Maybe he really implodes when a few bad things happen and gives up huge innings. Maybe he is like Liriano and just hates the Marlins and needs a change of scenery to motivate to stay focused in games.

[DaveW]

This team can contend as early as 2015, sign a guy like garza now for 4-5 years so you have that in place for your "run", grab another high risk high reward guy like Johnson and you suddenly have something to build on moving forward. Aim for .500 in 2014, and then aim for 90 wins in 2015.

[goulik]

this team can contend as early as 2015, sign a guy like garza now for 4-5 years so you have that in place for your "run", grab another high risk high reward guy like johnson and you suddenly have something to build on moving forward. Aim for .500 in 2014, and then aim for 90 wins in 2015.

exactly!!!

[Major League Ready]

I disagree with Grant Paulson. The Twins have tons of prospects and losing a 2nd rd pick is in no way comparable to trading a top prospect (like Myers) for a good starter. That's a bad move for a rebuilding team. It would be greatly beneficial for a team like the Twins to have something resembling an MLB to start adding Sano/Buxton/Meyer/Stewart/Rosario/etc to. People talk about wasting Mauer's prime but at the same time the Twins are only guaranteed 6 yrs of these potential studs. I'm against spending 3 yrs trying to build a competitive team around them.

 

The problem if Ubaldo tanks has very little to do with the draft pick. It has everything to do with signing him to a long FA contract and that's an issue for every FA contract. If you want to avoid that then never go after FA's but that would be foolish for the Twins to completely avoid.

 

Paulen said the same thing. I just did a poor job of repeating his point. I made his point with the example I posed earlier. 5 year contracts do not make sense for a rebuilding team. I asked in the previous post for examples of teams in a similar stage of rebuilding that signed the top available FA SPs to 5+ year deals. indignance

 

Garza at 4 years + Johnson is a reasonable plan but if Johnson pitches like he did last year we are still in trouble. Garza alone is not going to make that much difference and it will be a long season unless a lot of other things go right. Garza, Orroyo, and Johnson would be a much better plan. Of course, that is very optimistic to believe we could land all three but we can hope.

 

If the signing of top FA SPs is a good strategy, there should be plenty examples of where it has happened. I cant think of ONE. In other words, there is not a GM that would support this thinking. So, for all of you who are indignant about Ryan's reluctance to sign such players, let's see some examples. If this is very rare or even non-existent, what should we conclude. Are all of the GMs incompetent. Are they all just cheap?

[jay]

The Twins were frustrated by his over-reliance on trying to blow his FB past people and at least it looks like he's changed that. With the Twins, he was throwing his 4-seamer about 63% of the time and the slider about 17%.

 

He's around the same total percentage with the FB last year, but fangraphs says he added a 2-seamer to the mix around 2010. His use rates last year were 45% with the 4-seam, 19% 2-seam, 24% slider. He'll mix in a few curveballs, but has thrown his change-up (his worse pitch according to pitch values) less and less.

 

I was skeptical at first, but color me intrigued after looking into it more.

 

Oh, and John, I'm sure they finally got around to reading through all of the threads on TD and realized it was time to change...

Literally just a week ago, I would've said that the chances that the Twins sign any pitcher for more than $10M/year were less than 5%. Now I feel its probable. There are just too many rumors and discussions with some of the better names on this market. I don't know why the change in direction and philosophy, but whatever the reason, I'll take it.