Matt Garza?!

[TheLeviathan]

When the Twins started winning a decade ago there was no jump in attendance like 87-88. That would temper the Pohlads who do not want to lose money. Yes the last few years they have made money, but pre Target they did lose a lot of money.

 

Agreed, but that speaks to my point. They need to maintain the paying fanbase they have. If they show apathy to their own product to the point that they start losing season ticket-holders, we will probably see them start shrinking the payroll to match it.

 

It's important, and I think this forum is emblematic of this, that the team show their fans that they do understand that their approach to the offseason has to change. People are clamoring for it and watching closely. The Twin's investment in their own product has to match the one the community has given and is giving. If it doesn't they're going to start shrinking the paying fanbase. And, as a die-hard fan who is excited about the potential of the future, I don't want to see the shrinking that will hurt our future payroll.

 

So good news that they showing impressive aggression early on.

[John Bonnes]

Yes the last few years they have made money, but pre Target they did lose a lot of money.

 

Boy, I'd be really surprised if this was true. And this is from someone who really studied the Twins revenues, both shared and local. Do you have a source or link or something for that?

[JP3700]

I'm not seeing the problem. Even if the Twins signed Garza for that much, and then signed a $20MM player, they would still be far under budget. Who else would be taking up payroll?

 

Having said that, I don't think Garza will get that much. And if he does I don't think it would be from the Twins.

 

The problem would be committing over 50% of your payroll on 3 players. You have to pay 22 other players. You're leaving yourself no room for error. You can't just assume all 3 players will stay healthy and produce up to their contract and every prospect will pan out.

[DocBauer]

I've hoped for and advocated for Kazmir and Johnson or Hughes for balance and improvement while still being somewhat financially responsible vs. older age and too many years, etc. Goodness knows 2 FA of almost any of the players tied to our interest would provide depth and improvement! But Garza, if serious and not simply using agent speak, would be a guy who would definitely be worth the years and the dollars. 4 at $15 with a possible 5th year or option with buyout would be excellent! ( along with a quality second signing)

 

If there is real interest on his part, the Twins should jump. His age, stuff and durability would give us the best top of the rotation arm in years. It would also show the fan base something to be excited about.

 

As Mr. Bonnes rightfully points out, the Twins have never spoken so loudly about flexing payroll or been tied to so many names before. I sense genuine interest in improvement. This would also be a signal to other players and agents as well as the fans.

 

1: Garza

2: Kazmir

3/4: Correia

4/3: Gibson

5: Deduno

 

on deck:

 

6: Diamond

7: Worley

 

in the hole:

 

Meyer

May

 

possibles:

 

Albers

Hendricks

 

If that doesn't get you excited what will?

[Brandon]

The people in Hennepin county paid a price to help put the Twins in a positions where we can see them do something that is extremely rare or actually never in team history after all of the Calvin Griffiths years of selling off players and even the Pohlads only retaining players or signing Minnesota players at the end of their careers. There is a level of excitement about that fact that the Twins are able to and I am going to put this in parenthesis as its not totally "irrationally" spend and acquire a huge talent instead of letting it go will be a huge boost to morale in Minneapolis as this is something the Twins have never done period ... since 1961 when have the Twins signed a top talent that is not from here for multiple years for top dollars???? VS how many times have we seen that top talent go? I really think that Minnesota needs this type of signing for their Psyche more than anything else.

[kab21]

 

As far as a Garza signing limiting us from going after someone in 2015, I actually think it would. To make the math easy, let's assume Garza would require 5yrs, $85M. $17M along with Mauer's $23M. That's already $40M a year for the next five years on two players. Imagine adding another player around $20M a year. That's $60M a year committed to 3 players over the next 4 years. That doesn't sound like a successful plan to me. I wouldn't mind two big commitments, but three is too much for a mid market team.

 

Like I said, I wouldn't mind a Garza signing but I just feel this FA class has good value in the middle tier. While next year has some front line pitchers and I'd rather go after one of those guys if I am giving out a long term deal.

 

The roster will be made up of all of these prospects that are coming up that won't even be in arb yet. The only way to come close to an easily justifiable 125M payroll is by signing FA's. They could sign a bunch of Arroyo's every year to spend that money or they could sign a couple of really good ones instead.

[drivlikejehu]

The problem would be committing over 50% of your payroll on 3 players. You have to pay 22 other players. You're leaving yourself no room for error. You can't just assume all 3 players will stay healthy and produce up to their contract and every prospect will pan out.

 

Well unless a decent number of Twins prospects pan out, they are screwed anyway and it's a moot point.

 

Counting roster spots isn't a good way of looking at it. We know the Twins won't be spending anything on their backup position players and middle relievers (and quite possibly not even on late inning relievers). Then there are the inexpensive young players in starting roles. After that, and the 3 expensive contracts you stipulate, not many spots are left. But $30-40MM still is available in that scenario.

 

Try actually putting together a projected roster where payroll becomes a problem. It isn't easy.

[Trevor0333]

I have no problems tying up 40-50 mill in payroll on 3 players just not for 5 years. Thats why a Garza, Arroyo offseason would be perfect. Garza for 5 years & Arroyo for 3 would be perfect staggering of salaries.

 

Don't forget there is a decent amount of payroll tied up in the bullpen that has many young pitchers ready to take over as well.

[kab21]

I have no problems tying up 40-50 mill in payroll on 3 players just not for 5 years. Thats why a Garza, Arroyo offseason would be perfect. Garza for 5 years & Arroyo for 3 would be perfect staggering of salaries.

 

Don't forget there is a decent amount of payroll tied up in the bullpen that has many young pitchers ready to take over as well.

 

A 3 yr deal for Arroyo? Really?

 

The bullpen is incredibly cheap by almost every measure.

[iastfan112]

When the Twins started winning a decade ago there was no jump in attendance like 87-88. That would temper the Pohlads who do not want to lose money. Yes the last few years they have made money, but pre Target they did lose a lot of money.

 

Actually there was a significant attendance bump:

[TABLE]

98: 1,165,976

99: 1,202,829

00: 1,000,760

01: 1,782,926

02: 1,924,473

03: 1,946,011

[TD=align: center]

04: 1,879,222

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]

05: 2,013,453

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]

06: 2,285,018

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

07: 2,296,383

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

08: 2,302,431

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]

09: 2,416,237

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

In a completely non-shocking turn of events fans are willing to show up more often to teams that are competitive.

 

Stats courtesy of :http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teams/minnatte.shtml

[diehardtwinsfan]

I can't think of an offseason where the Twins have been rumored nationally to be anywhere near this aggressive, especially with bigger names. Ryan isn't afraid to be aggressive early in the free agent period for pieces he thinks he needs - overpaying Jamey Carroll before 2012 comes to mind - but never with players of this caliber and price tag.

 

Literally just a week ago, I would've said that the chances that the Twins sign any pitcher for more than $10M/year were less than 5%. Now I feel its probable. There are just too many rumors and discussions with some of the better names on this market. I don't know why the change in direction and philosophy, but whatever the reason, I'll take it.

 

I need the like button back

 

Last year the Twins weren't really rumored to be in on anyone. Ryan mentioned not being able to give money away and the only big signing was KC, who supposedly had more money on the table. The Twins appear, at the very least, to be more prepared this year. Perhaps they are taking the fans advance and actually leaking some of this stuff out this year that they normally did not.... who knows, but right now, I tend to think the are going to walk away with one decent pitcher this offseason, perhaps two.

[old nurse]

Boy, I'd be really surprised if this was true. And this is from someone who really studied the Twins revenues, both shared and local. Do you have a source or link or something for that?

 

my recollection from past reading and from Forbes. The number stayed positive after 2004. I am sure some place has the stats.

Remember the Pohlads have owned the team since 84. 88 and 92 were the only high attendance years in the first 16 years. Local media has never been a high revenue source for the Twins. It has been a more recent phenomenon for there to be a large national contract.

[old nurse]

Agreed, but that speaks to my point. They need to maintain the paying fanbase they have. If they show apathy to their own product to the point that they start losing season ticket-holders, we will probably see them start shrinking the payroll to match it.

 

It's important, and I think this forum is emblematic of this, that the team show their fans that they do understand that their approach to the offseason has to change. People are clamoring for it and watching closely. The Twin's investment in their own product has to match the one the community has given and is giving. If it doesn't they're going to start shrinking the paying fanbase. And, as a die-hard fan who is excited about the potential of the future, I don't want to see the shrinking that will hurt our future payroll.

 

So good news that they showing impressive aggression early on.

 

If the aggressive approach leads to a .500 kind of team with no large increase in the fans, what message with the fans have sent the Twins? Past history says that improving to .500 does not draw spectators.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Literally just a week ago, I would've said that the chances that the Twins sign any pitcher for more than $10M/year were less than 5%. Now I feel its probable. There are just too many rumors and discussions with some of the better names on this market. I don't know why the change in direction and philosophy, but whatever the reason, I'll take it.

 

John, are you actually reading these reports?

 

From MLB Trade Rumors on Garza: "However, as of this morning, Minnesota hasn't made a formal offer to any of its free agent targets."

 

Latest on Nolasco: "The club has yet to make a formal offer to Nolasco, tweets ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick, who says that the Twins are "not as far along with Ricky Nolasco as multiple reports have indicated."

 

I think there is still a very, very real chance the Twins get shut out in these pursuits. Remember, I don't think TR has ever won the bidding for anyone before -- his only signings have been cheap low-interest guys. Even if there's suddenly a will, there may not be a way to make it happen yet.

[kab21]

If the aggressive approach leads to a .500 kind of team with no large increase in the fans, what message with the fans have sent the Twins? Past history says that improving to .500 does not draw spectators.

 

I'm not sure what past history you are looking at but this isn't really true. Teams that are horrifically awful (like the current Twins) see their attendance nosedive. The Twins fanbase have so far kept coming to the games but that has more to do with a decade of winning teams, a new stadium and the upcoming All-Star game. If the Twins continue to be horrifically awful for a couple more seasons then attendance will nosedive like the late 90's.

[Rosterman]

The pain is that agents are using the Twins words about being in the marketplace against them in hopes of actually stabilizing offers or maybe even driving up prices. Of, perhaps, every agent and pitcher can leak the rumor that the Twins are interested and pursuing them, knowing that ultimately it won't happen.

[JB_Iowa]

If the aggressive approach leads to a .500 kind of team with no large increase in the fans, what message with the fans have sent the Twins? Past history says that improving to .500 does not draw spectators.

 

I'm not sure that you are right about the past but even if you are, I'm not sure that you can draw any conclusions from it at this point. A jump from 95 losses for 3 consecutive years to near .500 would be a huge jump in the possibility of actually seeing the Twins win on any given day. That, together with the hope provided by the farm system, the desire by many fans to see the Twins actually be competitive in the free agent market AND a ballpark that still has a bit of the "new & shiny" attached is very different from any small improvements they may have seen in the Metrodome days. Also, at this point, fans are still close enough to "winning seasons" to remember them -- the longer it goes on with a desolate (more than 90 loss) record, the harder that will get to remember. So there is a premium on showing significant improvement quickly and I have a lot of faith that if they do so, it will put b*tts in the seats and help stabilize their sliding TV ratings.

[TheLeviathan]

If the aggressive approach leads to a .500 kind of team with no large increase in the fans, what message with the fans have sent the Twins? Past history says that improving to .500 does not draw spectators.

 

This has already been answered well, but I'll put one more slight twist on what kab and JB already did such a nice job with:

 

The Twins aren't looking to make a "large increase" in fan base and I never argued any such thing. What they need to do is maintain their current season ticket rates. (I've said as much in my posts, this isn't new) What we don't want is nosediving attendance right when our young players are coming up and most all of us agree will be an opportune time to supplement them in the open market.

 

The stadium's luster and the all-star game's pull are gone after this year, if the Twins field another team this god-awful to watch - there could be some serious ramifications. And all of us diehards should be afraid of that because it takes time to bring people back and rebuild revenues after you burn those bridges.

[Riverbrian]

If the aggressive approach leads to a .500 kind of team with no large increase in the fans, what message with the fans have sent the Twins? Past history says that improving to .500 does not draw spectators.

 

Personally... I believe that getting back to .500 is getting back into contention.

 

Once in contention... Anything can happen... If anything can happen... Excitement builds.

 

Being out of it in July again is going to keep digging that hole that the youngsters will have to climb out of.

 

Speaking for myself... I am for a balls out push to mediocrity. I just don't see any big tickets FA's who can do it.

 

The 2012 team was inexperienced and it had no power... No speed... Set records in strikeouts and the pitching ranked last... And we had suspect defense at 3B, C with Doumit and the outfield corners.

 

That's a bad combination of things.

 

On top of that... I don't recall seeing pitchers pitch hard inside, catchers plowed at home, double plays broken up, Mauer stretching a double to a triple or Plouffe leaving his feet at the hot corner.

 

So you can add uninspired play to the 2012 soup of defensive holes, no power, speed, pitching, youth and not making contact when you swing.

 

The organization has decided not to change coaching... Well... then they have to change players.

 

Mediocre or Bust!!!!! I Cry... Charge!!! Who's with me?

[Squirrel]

Mediocre or Bust!!!!! I Cry... Charge!!! Who's with me?

 

Meh. That's the best mediocre answer I can come up with.

[Riverbrian]

Meh. That's the best mediocre answer I can come up with.

 

Ok... It's all in the inflection.. MEHHHHHHHH!!!

 

Make it mighty.

[ashbury]

Meh. That's the best mediocre answer I can come up with.

 

Yeah, me too. I'm with ya, Brian, unless something else comes up. Mehhhh.

[Riverbrian]

Yeah, me too. I'm with ya, Brian, unless something else comes up. Mehhhh.

 

Cool... I was starting to feel like Will Ferrell running down the street in Old School.

[AlwaysinModeration]

JB-Iowa....good post, and thank you for keeping it clean by asterisking the u in b*tts!

[AlwaysinModeration]

Personally... I believe that getting back to .500 is getting back into contention.

 

Once in contention... Anything can happen... If anything can happen... Excitement builds.

... Well... then they have to change players.

 

Mediocre or Bust!!!!! I Cry... Charge!!! Who's with me?

 

 

Right on! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!?

[AlwaysinModeration]

If the Twins manage to sign Garza and one of Kazmir/JJ/Arroyo/Nolasco (or even Hughes), I think that could have a pretty dramatic effect on their competitiveness.

[johnnydakota]

Yes sir , after 20 years maybe he has learned his lesson =) we can hope.Right?

Off subject,was nice to see May have a nice AFL, and maybe has pitched himself into a looksy for the Rotation ,you know if we dont sign tanaka,garza either santana or jimenez

[JB_Iowa]

The thing that boggles my mind is that Garza will only be 30 in a week or so.

 

It's easy to forget how young he was when he was first in a Twins uniform. Honestly, without looking it up, I would have said he was 34 or so.

 

 

And one more thing, I was going to bump the "Target Field Library Thread" but decided just to add this here. If there is anything I'm encouraged about this off-season, its the repeated rumors that the Twins are looking to change the clubhouse atmosphere. Thank Heavens!!

[Riverbrian]

Right on! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!?

 

Right On!!! Right back at you!!!

 

That's exactly the attitude that gets you to turn Flounder's car into an "Eat Me" cake slash death mobile float. And it leads to a Knocked over a fire hydrant... fallen telephone pole... Marbles thrown into the path of enemies... Uptight women losing their clothes... Smoke Bombs tossed into crowds... Windows Smashed... Town Leaders choking each other with their bare hands... Marching Bands being led helplessly into corners and Kevin Bacon yelling all is well!!!

 

At the very least... Someone has their parade ruined...

 

And... just maybe while we are sitting alone in our bedrooms reading through all of our data of complex baseball stats looking for an answer... A pretty girl will unexpectedly fly through our window and we say "Thank You God"!!!

 

Does this team have a Bluto or D-Day on it? Does the Front Office have an Otter? We need some right now!!! Otherwise Young Flounder and Pinto are just going to learn how to keep getting picked on!!!

[ashbury]

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!?

 

Germans?

 

 

Forget it, he's rolling.

 

/ from the hit movie, Animal Castle