Decided to play GM this afternoon.

[tcarlic]

So this is without any trades. Obviously there would be trades, but I didn't want to go through the effort of looking up other players. This is also assuming that the players we are counting on manage to at least test the majors. These are the rosters that I would leave ST with. With salaries, I kind of just shot in the dark and took a guess. Let me know what you think.

 

2014

 

 

SP - E. Santana (31) (4y. 75 mil)

SP - P. Hughes (28) (2y. 20 mil)

SP - K. Correia (33) (1y. 5.5 mil)

SP - K. Gibson (25) (.500 mil)

SP - S. Diamond (27)/A. Albers (28)/V. Worley (26)/S. Deduno (30)/L. Hendriks (24) (.600 mil)

 

 

RHP - J. Burton (32) (1y. 3.25 mil+option)

RHP - A. Swarzak (28) (ARB1 1.2 mil)

RHP - C. Fien (29) (.525 mil)

RHP - M. Tonkin (23) (.500 mil)

LHP - B. Duensing (30) (ARB2 2 mil)

LHP - C. Thielbar (26) (.505 mil)

CL - G. Perkins (30) (2y. 8 mil+option)

 

 

C - J. Mauer (30) (5y. 115 mil)

1b - C. Parmalee (25)

2b - B. Dozier (26) (.530 mil)

3b - T. Plouffe (27) (Super2 1.5 mil)

SS - P. Florimon (26) (.515 mil)

CF - A. Hicks (24) (.500 mil)

LF - J. Willingham (34) (1y. 7 mil)

RF - O. Arica (22) (.505 mil)

DH - R. Doumit (32) (1y. 3.5 mil)

 

 

C - C. Herrmann (25) (.500 mil)

4OF - A. Pressly (28) (.500 mil)

UTL - E. Escobar (24) (.500 mil)

UTL - C. Colabello (29) (.500 mil)

 

 

total- 84,875,000 million

 

 

-Sign E. Santana and P. Hughes

-Trade B. Dozier at trade deadline and bring up Rosario from AAA

-Let Sano dictate call-up from AAA

-Let Buxton dictate call-up from AA

-Last chance for C. Colabello

-Trade/Let J. Willingham walk

-Trade/Let R. Doumit walk

-Rotate pitchers in 5th spot

-Last chance for P. Florimon

-Give A. Hicks another chance

-Split J. Mauer at 1b and C

 

 

2015

 

 

SP - E. Santana (32) (3y. 56.25 mil)

SP - H. Bailey (29) (4y. 80 mil)

SP - K. Gibson (26) (.750 mil)

SP - A. Meyer (26) (.500 mil)

SP - P. Hughes (29) (1y. 10 mil)

 

 

RHP - M. Tonkin (24) (.535 mil)

RHP - T. May (25) (.500 mil)

RHP - C. Fien (30) (1.5 mil)

RHP - Z. Jones (25) (.500 mil)

LHP - A. Albers (28)/P. Hernandez (25) (.500 mil)

LM - R. Pressly (25) (1.0 mil)

CL - G. Perkins (31) (1y. 4 mil+option)

 

 

C - J. Pinto (25) (.500 mil)

1b - J. Mauer (31) (4y. 92 mil)

2b - E. Rosario (23) (.500 mil)

3b - M. Sano (21) (.500 mil)

SS - A. Cabrera (29) (4y. 65 mil)

CF - B. Buxton (21) (.500 mil)

LF - A. Hicks (25) (.750 mil)

RF - O. Arcia (23) (1.5 mil)

DH - C. Parmelee (26) (1.5 mil)

 

 

C - C. Herrmann (26) (.750 mil)

4OF - A. Pressly (29) (.750 mil)

UTL - E. Escobar (25) (.750 mil)

OF/IF - T. Plouffe (28) (ARB2 3.0 mil)

 

 

total - 108,780,000 million

 

 

-Sign H. Bailey and A, Cabrera

-Move J. Mauer to 1b

-Let K. Correia walk

 

 

 

 

2016

 

 

SP - E. Santana (33) (2y. 37.5 mil)

SP - H. Bailey (30) (3y. 60 mil)

SP - A. Meyer (27) (1.5 mil)

SP - K. Gibson (27) (1.5 mil)

SP - J. Berrios (22) (.500 mil)

 

 

RHP - M. Tonkin (25) (.750 mil)

RHP - T. May (26) (.750 mil)

RHP - Z. Jones (26) (.750 mil)

RHP - R. Eades (25) (.500 mil)

LHP - L. Thorpe (21) (.500 mil)

LM - R. Pressley (26) (ARB1 1.750 mil)

CL - G. Perkins (32) (1y. 5 mil)

 

 

C - J. Pinto (26) (.750 mil)

1b - J. Mauer (32) (3y. 69 mil)

2b - E. Rosario (24) (1.5 mil)

3b - M. Sano (22) (1.5 mil)

SS - A. Cabrera (30) (3y. 48.75 mil)

CF - B. Buxton (22) (1.5 mil)

LF - A. Hicks (26) (1.5 mil)

RF - O. Arcia (24) (ARB1 3.5 mil)

DH - A. Brent Walker (25) (.500 mil)

 

 

C - C. Herrmann (27)/S. Turner (25) (1.5 mil)/(.500 mil)

UTL - J. Polanco (23) (.500 mil)

UTL - D. Santana (26) (.500)

OF/IF - M. Kepler (23) (.500 mil)

 

 

total - 104,250,000 million

 

 

 

 

2017

 

 

SP - H. Bailey (31) (2y. 40 mil)

SP - E. Santana (34) (1y. 18.75 mil)

SP - A. Meyer (28) (ARB1 4.5 mil)

SP - K. Gibson (28) (ARB1 3.8 mil)

SP - J.Berrios (23)/L. Thorpe (22)/K. Stewart (23) (1.0 mil)/(.750 mil)/(.500 mil)

 

 

RHP - T. May (27) (ARB1 1.5 mil)

RHP - Z. Jones (27) (ARB1 1.5 mil)

RHP - R. Eades (26) (.750 mil)

LHP - S. Gonsalves (23) (.500 mil)

LHP - M. Melotakis (26) (.500 mil)

LM - F. Jorge (23) (.500 mil)

CL - M. Tonkin (26) (1.5 mil)

 

 

C - J. Pinto (27) (ARB1 3.0 mil)

1b - J. Mauer (33) (2y. 46 mil)

2b - E. Rosario (25) (ARB1 3.0 mil)

3b - M. Sano (23) (ARB1 4.0 mil)

SS - A. Cabrera (31) (2y. 32.5 mil)

CF - B. Buxton (23) (ARB1 5.5 mil)

LF - A. Hicks (27) (ARB1 3.0)

RF - O. Arcia (25) (ARB2 4.5 mil)

DH - A. Brent Walker (26) (.750 mil)

 

 

C - S. Turner (26) (.750 mil)

4OF - M. Kepler (24) (.750 mil)

UTL - J.Ploanco (24)/D. Santana (27) (.750 mil)

IF/OF - T. Harrison (25) (.500 mil)

 

 

total - 120,550,000 million

 

 

 

 

2018

 

 

SP - H. Bailey (32) (1y. 20 mil)

SP - A. Meyer (29) (ARB2 7.5 mil)

SP - K. Stewart (24) (.750 mil)

SP - J. Berrios (24) (1.75 mil)

SP - L. Thorpe (23) (1.5 mil)

 

 

RHP - F. Jorge (24) (.750 mil)

RHP - R. Eades (27) (1.25 mil)

RHP - T. May (28) (ARB2 2.5 mil)

RHP - Z. Jones (28) (ARB2 2.5 mil)

LHP - S. Gonsalves (24) (1.0 mil)

LHP - M. Melotakis (27) (1.0 mil)

CL - M. Tonkin (27) (ARB1 3.0)

 

 

C - S. Turner (27) (1.5 mil)

1b - J. Mauer (34) (1y. 23 mil)

2b - E. Rosario (26) (ARB2 6.0 mil)

3b - M. Sano (24) (ARB2 10.0 mil)

SS - A. Cabrera (32) (1y. 16.25 mil)

CF - B. Buxton (24) (ARB2 11.0 mil)

LF - M. Kepler (25) (1.5 mil)

RF - O. Arcia (28) (ARB3 10.0)

DH - A. Brent Walker (26) (1.5 mil)

 

 

C - FA (1.0 mil)

UTL - J. Polanco (25) (1.0 mil)

4OF - FA (2.0 mil)

IF/OF - T. Harrison (26) (.750 mil)

 

 

total - 126,300,000 million

[goulik]

I hope Thielbar is in our bullpen for longer than you have planned and I hope Eades is a starter but I like what you have done

[Badsmerf]

Nicely done. I doubt they go over 120m. I'm not sure signing Santana to that big of a contract is a good idea. Best scenario is the Twins sign someone like Santana or Bailey and Meyer, Berrios, Thorpe, Stewart are all in the rotation by the end of 2016.

[Mike Sixel]

I could endorse this plan. It's not my plan, exactly, but I think it is a legit plan that can get them to good sooner than draft and wait......

[Seth Stohs]

Only thing I'd point out is that you've got guys jumping up from league minimum too quickly. Unless the minimum salary increases, guys will be closer to $0.5M.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nicely done as well.

 

I'd note that I don't think the Santana/Hughes numbers are accurate. Both I think will see more years in particular.

[Siehbiscuit]

I love the thought and time put into this! I could see with TV revenues increasing that the team's payroll approaches $105-$115, but TR may not be the man in charge if that happens. I will say, no way on Ervin Santana AND I HIGHLY doubt Homer Bailey gets $20M per year, let alone from the Twins. Great job and it is great to see some of these pitchers starting to come up.

[tcarlic]

Thanks a lot everyone! It was more fun than anything to do.

 

As far as the salaries go for league minimum and stuff like that - I was too sure on what the case would be a couple years down the road.

 

Santana - I thought he would be a good pickup.

Bailey - Shooting high in $

[nicksaviking]

I was expecting some embarassing suggestions but was surprised by reasonable predictions. Nice work, and very encouraging. I still don't think the Twins get Santana, though the money is probably close. And even more encouraging, as Seth mentioned, unless the Twins start buying out arb years extremely early, the payroll will probably be quite a bit lower. None of those ideas are out of the question.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Decided to play GM this afternoon.

 

Fine but how much "full responsibility" are you willing to take on??

[shs_59]

Nicely Thought out however..

 

in yr. 2014 BUXTON will not make the Majors. Best case is mid or late 2015. IMO He's NOT TROUT (We don't want to turn him into BJ Upton) Even taking our time with him he could be Austin Jackson, so no need to rush him.

 

#2 Waaaay waaaaaaaaaaaay to much Money for Ervin "unmagical" Santana

 

4 Yrs? and 18 Mill a year? You're out of you're mind .

 

Nobody will go 4 years with him at that money, maaaaaybe on 2 years.

 

I'd say 3 years at 14 per so 3 years 42 Mill with maybe some incentives.

 

And in 2015 WAAAAAAAAAAAAY to much Money for an old aging, terrible Asdrubal Cabrera

[Mike Sixel]

What else are they going to spend the money on? Why NOT overpay for a pitcher?

[S.]

#2 Waaaay waaaaaaaaaaaay to much Money for Ervin "unmagical" Santana

 

4 Yrs? and 18 Mill a year? You're out of you're mind .

 

Nobody will go 4 years with him at that money, maaaaaybe on 2 years.

 

I'd say 3 years at 14 per so 3 years 42 Mill with maybe some incentives.

If Santana signs somewhere for 3/42, I'll eat my shoes. It would not surprise me in the least if he gets more than 4 years and/or more than $72M. Whether or not he should is a different discussion.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

in yr. 2014 BUXTON will not make the Majors. Best case is mid or late 2015. IMO He's NOT TROUT (We don't want to turn him into BJ Upton) Even taking our time with him he could be Austin Jackson, so no need to rush

 

He might not be Trout, but he's close. I would be really surprised if he - unless he gets injured or starts impersonating Aaron Hicks - doesn't make his MLB debut this summer before becoming THE GUY early in 2015..

 

(If Hicks has a great start, that might be another exception to bringing Buxton up.)

[Shane Wahl]

This was pretty good. If there was a way to get Ervin Santana for 4 years, the Twins should really jump on that. It's likely that he is looking at 5/$85 at this point.

 

2 years and $28 million might get you Hughes.

 

Excellent job overall.

[Shane Wahl]

By the way, I am now predicting the Twins sign Phil Hughes and Chris Capuano. I don't mind them as second and third signings. Ervin is probably a wild dream, but he would be nice.

[ashbury]

Fine but how much "full responsibility" are you willing to take on??

 

A pretty darn good amount.

[Steve Penz]

This is fun to read. I like all the thought you put in it. I am surprised that in your plan and in the comments that trading Perkins is not mentioned. I would have him on the block constantly waiting for the right offer.

[nicksaviking]

This is fun to read. I like all the thought you put in it. I am surprised that in your plan and in the comments that trading Perkins is not mentioned. I would have him on the block constantly waiting for the right offer.

 

I'm for trading closers. To me they have the most inflated value, and it's easy to inflate. Promote one reliever to the position and his value (and salary) instantly expand. I'd like to see the Twins become a closer factory and just keep moving them until the rest of the league gets wise. However, maybe Perkins becomes the first Twin to receive a qualifying offer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

#2 Waaaay waaaaaaaaaaaay to much Money for Ervin "unmagical" Santana

 

4 Yrs? and 18 Mill a year? You're out of you're mind .

 

Nobody will go 4 years with him at that money, maaaaaybe on 2 years.

 

I think you're going to be very unpleasantly surprised by the mad money that is thrown around MLB this offseason. Every team, and I mean every team, has extra money to spend that they did not have 12 months ago.

 

I have the feeling we're going to spend the entire offseason saying "WHO got HOW MUCH? ARE THEY CRAZY?!?!?"

 

Personally, I wouldn't touch Santana with a ten foot pole. He's the type of signing a team inevitably regrets in 12-24 months.

 

You don't sign a guy coming off a career year. You just don't do it. A guy like Phil Hughes is a far better value and has upside for your dollar. Santana has no upside, as he just came off his upside career year in 2013. The only direction he's going is down and the best you can hope for is a repeat of 2013. And even hoping for that over a 4+ year contract is a bit like hoping to win the lottery three times in a row.

[Nick Nelson]

You don't sign a guy coming off a career year. You just don't do it. A guy like Phil Hughes is a far better value and has upside for your dollar. Santana has no upside, as he just came off his upside career year in 2013.

I think this is pretty harsh. Santana has been good 3 of the last 4 years, and his down year in 2012 was the result of a ridiculous, unrepeatable home run spike. He's probably the best bet on the FA market this year outside of Tanaka.

[Shane Wahl]

Career ERA+ for E. Santana is 100! Haha. Actually that is what you might get over the duration of a four or five-year deal. The thing is that two or three of those years might be 115+.

[nicksaviking]

Santana had another career year in 2008. Of course he turned that into his current lucrative extension than promptly followed it up with an awful 2009.

[Shane Wahl]

Would you guys sign him for 5 years if you knew three of them were going to be quite good and 2 were clunkers (hoping that 2014 was one of those clunkers)?

[Nick Nelson]

Would you guys sign him for 5 years if you knew three of them were going to be quite good and 2 were clunkers (hoping that 2014 was one of those clunkers)?

 

You can't know that though. That's the uncertain nature of free agency. I think he's more likely to be an above-average pitcher over the next five years than anyone in the Twins' system (though that's true of many free agents).

[rukavina]

2017

 

SP - H. Bailey (31) (2y. 40 mil)

SP - E. Santana (34) (1y. 18.75 mil)

SP - A. Meyer (28) (ARB1 4.5 mil)

SP - K. Gibson (28) (ARB1 3.8 mil)

SP - J.Berrios (23)/L. Thorpe (22)/K. Stewart (23) (1.0 mil)/(.750 mil)/(.500 mil)

 

2018

 

SP - H. Bailey (32) (1y. 20 mil)

SP - A. Meyer (29) (ARB2 7.5 mil)

SP - K. Stewart (24) (.750 mil)

SP - J. Berrios (24) (1.75 mil)

SP - L. Thorpe (23) (1.5 mil)

 

I found this well-thought-out and entertaining. My hope is that in the out-years we will being to see upside from the 19-year-old latino players that are showing up on Seth's radar - Landa, Romero, Rosario, Jorge. They throw hard and one or two of them will be serviceable starters.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Personally, I wouldn't touch Santana with a ten foot pole. He's the type of signing a team inevitably regrets in 12-24 months.

 

You don't sign a guy coming off a career year. You just don't do it. A guy like Phil Hughes is a far better value and has upside for your dollar. Santana has no upside, as he just came off his upside career year in 2013.

 

Santana's 2008 was better than his 2013, so its probably not technically a career year. Also, Santana has had ~3 other seasons with innings and rate stats similar to 2013/2008, even if he didn't quite hit those ERA+ numbers.

 

Phil Hughes is younger, but has hardly even approached any Santana's top 5 seasons in terms of innings or effectiveness. And I still think Hughes is unlikely to sign anything more than a one year deal, so best case, you might get a one-year upgrade and then have to make a Santana-type offer to retain him anyway.

 

I credit this poster for giving a realistic estimate of Santana's potential contract (although I think he could get a fifth year, but the AAV looks about right). It's clear the we can afford him, and we have a gaping need at the position.

[tcarlic]

Those Santana numbers were taken from mlbtraderumors.com

 

Remember, this "projection" did not take into account any trades. Just FA signings and in-house call-ups. I also didn't really explain my thinking beyond 2015. I think these are the type of deals that should be made for FA's. We'd all be lying if we said that we wouldn't make Minnesota pay a little more for our service if we were a FA. This team has stunk the last couple years and honestly 2014 doesn't look much better. 2015 might be a wash as well if these prospects don't pan out half of what we expect.

 

Santana is a proven commodity; something the Twins do not have. If you have to pay a little more, in a year when you can afford too, then I think you have to get it done.

 

The Cabrera signing is the one that I look back at and tell myself, "that's stupid." But then when I think about it, the more I think signing a SS is the way to go. The Twins lack this more than SP, in my opinion. They have some solid 2b guys, but no one who profiles as a SS. Cabrera would only be 29 at the signing. While his bat has taken a step back, his defense is still pretty solid and is still a top SS in the AL. I personally hope the figures I gave are off as I have zero experience signing players or negotiating for players. Cabrera does give the Twins the security of having a solid SS something they have not had since Hardy and Guzman before that.

[tcarlic]

Phil Hughes is younger, but has hardly even approached any Santana's top 5 seasons in terms of innings or effectiveness. And I still think Hughes is unlikely to sign anything more than a one year deal, so best case, you might get a one-year upgrade and then have to make a Santana-type offer to retain him anyway.

 

I credit this poster for giving a realistic estimate of Santana's potential contract (although I think he could get a fifth year, but the AAV looks about right). It's clear the we can afford him, and we have a gaping need at the position.

 

I signed both these guys FWIW

[Otto von Ballpark]

tcarlic, I like your plan (at least for this offseason). No reason we can't "overpay" a little to try to get some long-term help in the rotation, as well as take advantage of potential short-term bargains. That's one of the "positives" about having a severe shortage of quality players... plenty of spots to put new guys!