Is it realistic to expect us to be contenders in 2015 or 2016

[ThePuck]

Since we will be counting almost exclusively on prospects to put us back into contention in the near future, I thought looking at the following study might help us decide how realistic those expectations are:

Success and Failure Rates of Top MLB Prospects - Royals Review

 

 

 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

To answer the question you posted, yes it's realistic to expect to contend in 2015/16. I think the issue at hand is going to be "how". There's a couple things that the study didn't account for, and somewhat curious about how it plays out:

 

1) Repeat prospects (i.e., how did the guy do that made the list for several years).

2) Prospects that don't make the list. (i.e., can some one not on the list become a very good player).

 

Keep in mind that most teams don't have stars 1-9 in the order. They have one or two stars, several above average players, and a lot of competent/average guys. I think what this study says more than anything else, is that some of our guys will fail. The question becomes which ones, and how are they made up for? If the Twins don't go out and spend some cash in FA, you'll likely see some of our contending teams from the early part of last decade: good but flawed. Good but flawed teams CAN contend.

[gunnarthor]

I think one thing you have to remember is that the Twins will get some surprisingly good performances out of people not ranked in the top 100. AJ, Radke, Baker, Santana, Dozier, Koskie, Jones etc were never top 100 guys yet turned into strong players for us. And when we worry about prospects not panning out, we have to remember that the list of top 100 guys we have/had includes guys like Swarzak and Benson, too.

[stringer bell]

It depends on 2014. I was hoping that the Twins would have more of a core established by the end of 2013. Hicks, Parmelee, and Plouffe haven't made themselves part of the Twins' future when they had that chance. The rotation still has plenty of moving parts. More of those things need to be nailed down before the Twins can take the step to being contenders.

[MartianKing]

I really don't see a big enough bump in our prospects to get over the .500 hump. We can most likely get there, but to contend, probably not. The Twins will need to get better pitching first and foremost. Our minor league throwers look very iffy right now.

[TheLeviathan]

I think one thing you have to remember is that the Twins will get some surprisingly good performances out of people not ranked in the top 100. AJ, Radke, Baker, Santana, Dozier, Koskie, Jones etc were never top 100 guys yet turned into strong players for us. And when we worry about prospects not panning out, we have to remember that the list of top 100 guys we have/had includes guys like Swarzak and Benson, too.

 

It works both ways. What's certain is that everything will not come up roses. We can't plan on everything turning out positively.

[Badsmerf]

It depends on pitching. If Terry Ryan spends some money to improve the rotation they could absolutely be competitive. Gibson will be better next year. Meyer could be knocking on the door with May not too far behind him. Other than those two, Berrios is a little ways out along with Stewart, Jorge, Thorpe. The Twins need some talent in the rotation. There is definitely some available in FA this offseason. Hopefully they will sign more than a Kevin Correia type.

[clutterheart]

No Guarantees

But you could look at the Pirates and what they did.

They have a good young core of prospects coupled with veteran pitchers like Burnett & Wandy Rodriguez.

 

Sometimes it woks, sometimes it doesn't. But what else is there to root for?

[Marta Shearing]

Detroit's getting old and fat. Their window is rapidly closing. The Indians and Royals dont have high ceiling talent like we have coming up.

[ThePuck]

Detroit's getting old and fat. Their window is rapidly closing. The Indians and Royals dont have high ceiling talent like we have coming up.

 

The Royals have positional talent already on the field...and they're young too. They should get nothing but better have started looking much more like what they are capable of doing offensively in the 2nd half. 4th in the AL in runs scored.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Royals have positional talent already on the field...and they're young too. They should get nothing but better have started looking much more like what they are capable of doing offensively in the 2nd half. 4th in the AL in runs scored.

 

The offense is going to have to really step it up because the Royals are going to have a hell of a time replacing Santana's production in 2013.

[ThePuck]

The offense is going to have to really step it up because the Royals are going to have a hell of a time replacing Santana's production in 2013.

 

They'll probably take a good look at Ventura or Zimmer to replace Santana. Their cupboard is hardly bare..

[Kobs]

2015 is a pipe dream. They'd need the pitching to go from 0 to 60 in one season. 2016, doubtful, but you can't rule it out yet.

[Twinsoholic]

Here's my observation (call it a pipe dream if you will). The Twins do the following this offseason:

1. Draft a lively armed starting pitcher who can be kept on the roster in the pen as long man(no Terry Doyle's--someone who throws hard). This player adds starter depth after his full season in the pen.

 

2. Sign Phil Hughes or a free-agent with upside like Hughes

 

3. Sign Tanaka from Japan

 

4. The addition of Hughes and another free agent (such as Tanaka) gives the Twins starting pitching depth for the first time in a long time, so the Twins could trade Sam Deduno to a team that needs starting pitching and that has a shortstop blocked from reaching the majors by that team's current ss.

 

5. Make a second trade--this time for a young starting pitcher who is either mlb ready or already in the big leagues but on a team with 5 more starters ahead of the guy the TWins trade for. I'm sure someone out there can suggest a pitcher who fits this profile. For this pitcher, whomever he is, the Twins send something like the following: Jared Burton, Trevor May, Rogers (lefty starter at High A Fort Meyers), and Harrison from Cedar Rapids. You have to give to get, but if the Twins sign Hughes, Tanaka, and trade for the mlb ready starter, then they will still have a surplus of starters: Meyer, Correia, Diamond, Dean, Albers, Hernandez, DeVries, Vazquez, and even Swarzak.

 

6. Sign Swarzak and Duensing--keep them around. Veterans. Not too expensive.

 

The Twins could compete with such a team in 2014:

 

C: Mauer (also plays a lot at 1B)

C: Pinto

Hermann (also plays OF)

1B: Colabello/Parmalee

2B: Dozier

3B: Plouffe

SS: Player acquired for Deduno

LF: Arcia

CF: Pressley

RF: Parmalee/Hermann

DH: Willingham

Utility: Florimon

Bench: Beresford or Romero or Escobar

 

SP: Hughes

SP: Tanaka

SP: Pitcher acquired by trade

SP: Correia

SP: Swarzak or Diamond

 

RP: Perkins

RP: Fein

RP: Thielbar

RP: Duensing

RP: Tonkin

RP: Pressly

RP: Rule 5 Pick

 

This scenario assumes a lot--I know. It also assumes that the Twins find someone who wants Doumit and that Hicks is at AAA to start the season, that Mastrianni is a AAA or gone, that Thomas is at AAA or gone, that Roenicke is gone, and that the TWins do not resign Pelfrey. Given Deduno's success and the shortage of starting pitching, some team will deal for him. The Twins might also be able to sell high on someone like Thielbar and get a couple of lower-level prospects to add to the riches in the minors since they have been drafting pitchers and not position players. The Twins might also be able to deal Diamond in a similar vein if they sign Hughes (someone like him) and Tanaka and if they also make a trade for an mlb ready starter. Willingham has to come back strong as the DH. A better hitting shortstop would also help the offense, and you would still have Florimon as the utility infielder.

 

Anyway, thanks for indulging in this plan to help redirect the Twins into a winning team in 2014, and then they would be positioned in 2015 to compete for the division title with additions of Sano, Rosario, and Meyer with the prospect depth to make a judicious trade or two.

[TheLeviathan]

I read most of this post and I appreciate the effort to see how it could work out...but there is not a single universe in the multiverse in which that lineup competes.

 

It's helpful though, to see even how far we are away in a pipedream. Oof.

[Brock Beauchamp]

They'll probably take a good look at Ventura or Zimmer to replace Santana. Their cupboard is hardly bare..

 

Santana is pitching like an ace this season. It's a stretch to think they'll be able to replace that internally.

[cmb0252]

Tanaka is the key to jump starting the rebuild. Japanese pitchers have done pretty well making the adjustment. He would bring a ton of media attention, local and internationally, and help the Twins for years to come. While he isn't an ace his scouting report reads as a solid #2.

 

A rotation of Tanaka, Gibson, a FA signing, D, and Corriea would be liveable till Meyer/May step in. Just need to put an ok defense behind it.

[Kobs]

The Twins do not have pieces to trade to bring in legitimate young starters at any position that they can realistically part with.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

This spring I was touting a return to .500 ball this year, with contention in 2014, and a dynamic stretch from 2015-2018, that would culminate in Mauer ascending to the upper echelon of HOF catchers. What was I smoking?

 

Now? .500 in 2014 seems a stretch. Maybe the Twins contend in 2015, but only if Von Ryan hits blackjack on the free agent market, and the roulette wheel of top 100 minor league talent lands on "Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Meyer, May, Berrios..."

[PeteyD33]

"Contending" is a relative term. I always keep my expectations low; I have always targeted the last part of this decade (2017-2020 or more specifically, 2018) when the Twins have a realistic shot at contending for a WS.

[Rosterman]

Well, the Twins have to hope that Meyer, May, Brax, Stewart, Berrios are the real thing and that they all pitch sometime at the major league level in 2014 and the majority of them are part of the rotation in 2015...with holdovers from Worley, Hendriks, Gibson, Albers, Diamond, and anyone else the Twins may acquire.

 

I see no need to further invest in the bullpen.

 

They need to see and give playing time to prospects. Then invest in 2015 with one or two pieces, one longterm and another a veteran presence that can be a bench bat (think Thomesque).

 

With their present condition, they will be unlucky on the free agent market unless they overpay in 2014. They don't need to, but we will all be able to yell about the money they are saving and ask where it is being spent.

 

Yes, the Twins need to spend whatever they can each year on draftpicks and in the international market.

[Brandon]

by 2015 the core should be in place with Mauer, Dozier, Sano, Arcia, Buxton and Rosario up and others on the way. The bullpen will still be a solid group provided no major injuries. And now for the elephant in the room the rotation.... Next season Dedunno could establish himself with a 3rd season of improvement, Meyer and Gibson, that leaves 2 spots 1 for our many 5th starter candidates stepping in and taking one and the other from FA. hopefully Terry Ryan mans up and gets a starting pitcher with talent. if that last transaction happens either this offseason or next...we should have a potential contender.

[Thegrin]

Yes. It is definitely possible for the Twins to be contenders in 2015 - 2016. Is it likely ? That's another subject already.

 

For the Twins pitching to make them a contender they must:

- Have a starting rotation that gives them an average of 20 Quality Starts per month.

- Have a bullpen with the quality of the 2013 bullpen.

- Have a quality closer and a quality setup man.

 

For the Twins hitting to make them a contender they must:

- Mauer ,if he catches less than 100 games, must maintain a .300 average and he must hit at least 20 HR with 75 RBI.

- Sano must hit .250 with 20+ HR or .225 with 35+ HR and 100 RBI.

- The Twins must have a .250+ batting average.

- The team must have a .260+ BA with RISP.

 

For the Twins fielding to make them a contender they must:

- Have a stolen base % of .720 (currently .689 - 2nd best in AL)

- They must have at least 1400 assists as a team

- They need to have no more than 70 errors as a team

 

Are these goals possible ?

- Yes, if we maintain something close to our current defense.

- Yes, if we can find starters that consistently keep us in games.

(Correia would qualify in 2013 with 15 QS in 27 starts - so far, Deduno has 10 QS out of 18 and Albers is 3 QS in 6 trys)

- Yes if we develop at least 6 major league hitters. We currently have Mauer, Willingham, Doumit, Dozier & Arcia. Yes, Willingham and Doumit are having down years, but hopefully they will not be around in 2015. This means we must develop 3 legit hitters from amongst Hicks, Presley, Buxton, Pinto, Hermann, Parmalee, Colabello, Florimon, Santana, Beresford,

Plouffe and Sano. That is doable.

[iastfan112]

Yes. It is definitely possible for the Twins to be contenders in 2015 - 2016. Is it likely ? That's another subject already.

 

For the Twins pitching to make them a contender they must:

- Have a starting rotation that gives them an average of 20 Quality Starts per month. 2010 averaged significantly less than this more like 14-15 a month

- Have a bullpen with the quality of the 2013 bullpen. 2010 was marginally worse

- Have a quality closer and a quality setup man. In the generic sense of having good RP this is true

 

For the Twins hitting to make them a contender they must:

- Mauer ,if he catches less than 100 games, must maintain a .300 average and he must hit at least 20 HR with 75 RBI. While I may agree with the Avg part as if he's not hitting for average Mauer probably isn't hitting well the HR metric is silly

- Sano must hit .250 with 20+ HR or .225 with 35+ HR and 100 RBI.

- The Twins must have a .250+ batting average.

- The team must have a .260+ BA with RISP.

 

For the Twins fielding to make them a contender they must:

- Have a stolen base % of .720 (currently .689 - 2nd best in AL)

- They must have at least 1400 assists as a team Trying to think of a more pointless metric than this one

- They need to have no more than 70 errors as a team 09 and 10 both had more, Tigers the past couple years have had way more.

 

Are these goals possible ?

- Yes, if we maintain something close to our current defense.

- Yes, if we can find starters that consistently keep us in games. (Only Correia would qualify in 2013 with 15 QS in 27 starts - so far)

- Yes if we develop at least 6 major league hitters. We currently have Mauer, Willingham, Doumit, Dozier & Arcia. Yes, Willingham and Doumit are having down years, but hopefully they will not be around in 2015. This means we must develop 3 legit hitters from amongst Hicks, Presley, Buxton, Pinto, Hermann, Parmalee, Colabello, Florimon, Santana, Beresford,

Plouffe and Sano. That is doable.

 

Your methodology seems ridiculously arbitrary.

[Thegrin]

Perhaps they are arbitrary, but ridiculous ? Each to his own taste, says the old lady as she kissed the cow.

[Oldgoat_MN]

There'll be no cow kissing here!

[Shane Wahl]

If the Tigers fall, anything is possible in this division next year.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

A year ago, I was thinking the Twins would contend in 2015. Now I am not so sure. We have some of the pieces (Buxton, Sano, Mauer if he stays healthy)...maybe Dozier or Rosario, maybe Parmalee or Hicks...but the key is pitching. Here we have Albers, Diamond, Gibson, Deduno (all potentially good number 3 starters). Meyer (can he stay healthy) could be an ace. Other prospects (Stewart, Gonsalves, Berrios) are 2-4 years away at best. We have very little to trade (outside of Hicks, Buxton, Sano, Rosario)...to fill in the holes (SS and P).

 

I don't know--my guess is 75-80 wins in 2014, with luck 85 in 2015 maybe contend in 2016 but hard to be hopeful.

[Winston Smith]

Contending in the Central is a long way from being a World Series contender. Are we hoping to hang around and play meaningful games into early Sept? Or are we hoping to play meaningful games well into Oct? Contending for the Central isn't that hard as seen in the last 10 yrs. But we never really had the teams to contend for a WS title. That takes another level of pitching that Ryan has never shown he can put together.

[Steve Lein]

The worst part about even thinking about all of this, is how the Twins so horribly miscalculated the level of "rebuild" they would need to undergo, and because of this, are about 2 seasons behind in putting it in motion.