Offseason trade targets

[old nurse]

2012 and 2013 to date, according to the subtitle.

 

Lincecum remains a high strikeout pitcher. Something has happened that his HR rate is up as well as his ERA over the last two years. One year would be an anomaly. Two years is a disturbing trend.

[mk]

Cincinnati has a bevy of starting pitching. Any chance they'd entertain moving Cingrani? Not that I'd do it, but what if Buxton or Sano was in on the deal?

[cmb0252]

Cincinnati has a bevy of starting pitching. Any chance they'd entertain moving Cingrani? Not that I'd do it, but what if Buxton or Sano was in on the deal?

 

If the Twins moved Sano or Buxton they would bring back a pitcher a lot better than him.

[drjim]

That approach would have the virtue of being more interesting than watching the existing, recurring dilemma of a rotation and middle infield (Dozey excepted) cobbled together primarily from established mediocrity, fringe prospects, and quad A filler.

 

The Twins face a future where they'll soon have a payroll comprised of Joe Mauer, Glen Perkins, and a bunch of kids making squat. Payroll carryover and front-loaded contracts/extensions are apparently a universal impossibility.

 

That pretty much leaves "overpaying" for FA's or trading non-elite prospects for expensive salary-dump guys as the only alternative to the pitchforks-and-torches scenario of having one of the lowest payrolls in baseball playing in a publicly funded stadium.

 

I'm not against this for the reasons you state. The advantage of a trade in this scenario is the overpay is more in money than years. Twins have to give up an asset but usually more a depth guy rather than an impact guy.

[Mr. Brooks]

Willinghammer: You certainly do not need to convince me of Lincecum over Hughes. I just dismissed Lincecum completely as I assume that Terry Ryan wouldn't break the bank for him.

I figured Hughes was a more realistic target.

 

I was rallying for Lincecum in another thread, where I stated that it's my opinion that the last 2 years have been as much bad luck as anything.

[mk]

If the Twins moved Sano or Buxton they would bring back a pitcher a lot better than him.

 

I thought Cingrani's numbers were pretty great. If Sano or Buxton is too much, who would be reasonable? Arica? Kepler plus Hendriks?

[Mr. Brooks]

I thought Cingrani's numbers were pretty great. If Sano or Buxton is too much, who would be reasonable? Arica? Kepler plus Hendriks?

 

Cingrani is a good pitcher, but the ERA is probably not sustainable. He has a really low babip, and his HR rate should probably be higher based on how much of an extreme flyball pitcher he's been.

It's probably too early to definitively declare it fluky, (every once in a while a pitcher comes along who, for whatever reason consistently induces low babip's) but at the least I'm skeptical.

IMO, he's probably a solid #2 to pretty good #3 type pitcher. Those are nice to have, but that's not the type of pitcher I'd trade Sano or Buxton for. I think some Twins fans, as a defense mechanism, have tempered their expectations of Sano/Buxton TOO MUCH. They are elite prospects. I wouldn't trade either one for anything but an absolute #1 ace.

[cmb0252]

Cingrani is a good pitcher, but the ERA is probably not sustainable. He has a really low babip, and his HR rate should probably be higher based on how much of an extreme flyball pitcher he's been.

It's probably too early to definitively declare it fluky, (every once in a while a pitcher comes along who, for whatever reason consistently induces low babip's) but at the least I'm skeptical.

IMO, he's probably a solid #2 to pretty good #3 type pitcher. Those are nice to have, but that's not the type of pitcher I'd trade Sano or Buxton for. I think some Twins fans, as a defense mechanism, have tempered their expectations of Sano/Buxton TOO MUCH. They are elite prospects. I wouldn't trade either one for anything but an absolute #1 ace.

 

Beat me to it. The other thing that should be noted about Cingrani is he is mostly a two pitch pitcher. He has an above average fastball/change up but his breaking ball is still below average. I would expect some regression once the league sees him a few more times unless he develops a good third pitch.

 

If you move Sano/Buxton, as Brook said, you expect an ace back. David Price might be an option next year.

[mk]

Cingrani is a good pitcher, but the ERA is probably not sustainable. He has a really low babip, and his HR rate should probably be higher based on how much of an extreme flyball pitcher he's been.

It's probably too early to definitively declare it fluky, (every once in a while a pitcher comes along who, for whatever reason consistently induces low babip's) but at the least I'm skeptical.

IMO, he's probably a solid #2 to pretty good #3 type pitcher. Those are nice to have, but that's not the type of pitcher I'd trade Sano or Buxton for. I think some Twins fans, as a defense mechanism, have tempered their expectations of Sano/Buxton TOO MUCH. They are elite prospects. I wouldn't trade either one for anything but an absolute #1 ace.

 

Maybe I got dazzled by the ERA, K and WHIP stats but I don't know much about him beyond the stat sheet. Though a low HR rate when you call the Great American Ball Park home is pretty impressive.

 

Is there an "Ace" worth going after? It would take at least a Buxton or Sano plus something else to get Kershaw and the privilege to pay him 20M+ per year. I think that's too steep. Same scenario for David Price. I would have considered Bundy before TJ, but certainly not for either of those guys now.

[LaBombo]

Lincecum remains a high strikeout pitcher. Something has happened that his HR rate is up as well as his ERA over the last two years. One year would be an anomaly. Two years is a disturbing trend.

Agree to a point, but FIP says his ERA should probably improve even if his HR rate does not.

 

Hey, if he didn't have some sort of red flag(s), he wouldn't even be considered a possible long-shot signing, right? If he sustains the K rate, he has a decent shot at being more effective in 2015-16 than any Twins pitcher currently above A ball.

 

Also, his geek chic look will boost team popularity in the Teen Heartthrob demographic, partially offsetting his high price....

[Mr. Brooks]

Maybe I got dazzled by the ERA, K and WHIP stats but I don't know much about him beyond the stat sheet. Though a low HR rate when you call the Great American Ball Park home is pretty impressive.

 

Is there an "Ace" worth going after? It would take at least a Buxton or Sano plus something else to get Kershaw and the privilege to pay him 20M+ per year. I think that's too steep. Same scenario for David Price. I would have considered Bundy before TJ, but certainly not for either of those guys now.

 

I don't think the Dodgers would even consider moving Kershaw. He's the best pitcher in baseball right now, and IMO it's not even particularly close.

In fact, given the era he pitches in, he is making a case to be historically good right now.

[cmb0252]

The Twins best move could be trading for a expensive pitcher who will be a FA in 2015 (ala E.Santana) and isn't performing up to their contract. Good gamble with no long term risk. Problem is I don't see any guys that fit that bill or if they do they are on teams who aren't trading pitchers. List from mlbtraderumors:

Brett Anderson (27) - $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Homer Bailey (29)

Josh Beckett (35)

Chad Billingsley (30) - $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout

Joe Blanton (34) - $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Wei-Yin Chen (29) - $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout

Kevin Correia (34)

Johnny Cueto (29) - $10MM club option with an $800K buyout

Ryan Dempster (38)

Yovani Gallardo (29) - $13MM club option with a $600K buyout

Edgar Gonzalez (32)

J.A. Happ (32) - $6.7MM club option

Luke Hochevar (31)

Hisashi Iwakuma (34) - $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Jair Jurrjens (29)

Kyle Kendrick (30)

Clayton Kershaw (27)

Aaron Laffey (30)

John Lannan (30)

Justin Masterson (30)

Brandon McCarthy (31)

Brandon Morrow (30) - $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Charlie Morton (31)

Jeff Niemann (32)

Ross Ohlendorf (32)

Felipe Paulino (31)

Jake Peavy (34)

Clayton Richard (31)

Max Scherzer (30)

Chris Volstad (28)

Carlos Villanueva (31)

 

Full list of (what looks to be a very poor free agency class) here:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/02/2015-mlb-free-agents.html

[cmb0252]

I don't think the Dodgers would even consider moving Kershaw. He's the best pitcher in baseball right now, and IMO it's not even particularly close.

In fact, given the era he pitches in, he is making a case to be historically good right now.

 

Dodgers are going to resign Kershaw at some point so there is no way they will trade him. Pitchers who fit the bill as front of the rotation starters whom have been rumored to be on the market is pretty thin. Only two I can name are Price and Lee. Both which come with a big price tag prospect and salary wise.

[LaBombo]

Problem is I don't see any guys that fit that bill or if they do they are on teams who aren't trading pitchers. List from mlbtraderumors:

...

Clayton Kershaw (27)

...

 

Dodgers are going to resign Kershaw at some point so there is no way they will trade him.

http://mlblogsmartelli.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/moneyball_rincon_hd.jpg?w=300&h=168 So that's a hard no on Kershaw?

[Mike Sixel]

These lists of possible players make me cry....well, they would if I cared that much.

[LaBombo]

These lists of possible players make me cry....well, they would if I cared that much.

Yeah. The euphoria induced by preseason football has really lessened the sting of another 90-loss steamer...

[Highabove]

Yeah. The euphoria induced by preseason football has really lessened the sting of another 90-loss steamer...

 

"They need to do something, it's not even August and people are already talking about Gopher Football."

 

Little Big League 1994

[MichiganTwins]

I see Jason Marquis is a free agent to be.

[Oxtung]

That approach would have the virtue of being more interesting than watching the existing, recurring dilemma of a rotation and middle infield (Dozey excepted) cobbled together primarily from established mediocrity, fringe prospects, and quad A filler.

 

The Twins face a future where they'll soon have a payroll comprised of Joe Mauer, Glen Perkins, and a bunch of kids making squat. Payroll carryover and front-loaded contracts/extensions are apparently a universal impossibility.

 

That pretty much leaves "overpaying" for FA's or trading non-elite prospects for expensive salary-dump guys as the only alternative to the pitchforks-and-torches scenario of having one of the lowest payrolls in baseball playing in a publicly funded stadium.

 

There is another approach. The Twins could very quickly lock up most of their young players, even knowing some will fail, at low rates to try and extend the window of opportunity before arbitration and free agency rip the team asunder. This might have the added benefit of allowing a small amount of payroll late in the window for free agents. It would be like front loading a FA contract except that you'd be "front loading" your core instead. Without doing the math I'm not sure it would be enough for a tier 1 free agent but perhaps a 2nd tier?

 

If the Twins moved Sano or Buxton they would bring back a pitcher a lot better than him.

 

I doubt it. In fact I doubt the Reds would do a Cingrani for Buxton trade straight up. As good as we hope Buxton will be he is still a prospect at A-ball. Cingrani on the other hand, with all the "flaws" you attribute to him, is currently dominating as a 23 year old in the majors. He has 6 years of team control left and he is left handed. Even if he "only" turns into a number 2 starter there is still significant value in that. Look at what James Shields cost for just 2 years at a relatively high salary. Span, an average CF, cost the Nationals a very highly thought of SP at A-ball.

[ashbury]

I see Jason Marquis is a free agent to be.

 

Then he probably shouldn't be an offseason trade target.

[Jarends703]

Stud pitcher David Price is rumored to be available. I'm sure it would take a significant prospect package to pry him away from the Rays for his last two years of arbitration, but he is a legitimate ace. I would offer Eddie Rosario and Jose Berrios plus other lesser prospects as necessary to fill out the deal (probably 2 more). Then offer Price a six year 120 million dollar contract contingent on completion of the trade. If he won't sign long term, no trade. This would be like the Johan Santana trade. I would even go to 130 or 140 million on the deal. Sure the Twins aren't likely to commit to a contract like that on a pitcher/non-Joe Mauer player but this is hypothetical anyway. What do you think of this idea? What do you think of the likely hood of a trade for a real a1 pitcher? Steak sauce!

[Danchat]

The title of this topic is very misleading. I think we might get a lot of LOL wut?s.

 

If we were a playoff team, I would make that trade. But Price isn't going to magically make us 10 games better. There is also no way I am trading Berrios at this point. Rosario I would offer.

[jorgenswest]

The Rays traded two years of James Shields for Wil Myers. It is going to take at least Sano and probably others to get Price.

[nicksaviking]

The title of this topic is very misleading. I think we might get a lot of LOL wut?s.

 

If we were a playoff team, I would make that trade. But Price isn't going to magically make us 10 games better. There is also no way I am trading Berrios at this point. Rosario I would offer.

 

I think you are way over-valuing Berrios.

 

He would be about the third biggest piece if he was included in a hypothetical Price trade.

[MichiganTwins]

The Twins should not trade Sano and Buxton, but they have some decisions to make and mainly: Do they trade one of Rosario/Dosier ?(before their stock slips and sell low again). The farm system is not deep enough in many positions to really afford them trades. Others of value I see potentially being trade bait are Harrison, Kepler (in my book, Walker, DJ Hicks and Baby Papi are ahead of these 2) and some of the Lefty relievers. But it is not that deep of a system after the top 10-15 and there is not much overlap...

What system is deep after their top 15 prospects?

[kab21]

I would like to squash this idea.

 

ESPN Home Run Tracker :: Player and Field Detail

 

Phil Hughes is another bullpen talent, over-reliant on his fastball due to ineffective secondary offerings. We have about 10 of those guys already.

 

edit: with the HR tracker link, select Target Field as an overlay. By my eye, Hughes would be no better off.

 

There is more to home runs than distance. New Yankee Stadium supposedly has the same measurements as Old Yankee Stadium and they were completely surprised that it's a home run paradise for lefties. It would have been a good hitters lefties hitter park but not this ridiculous. Target Field on the other hand has a steady breeze blowing in from right most nights knocking balls down. Hughes might do quite well in MN.

[Craig in MN]

I see that Wandy Rodriguez was shut down. He'd make $13 million next year but Houston is picking up a big chunk of that. It sounds like Pittsburgh might not really need him next year, and could want to free up some money to resign Burnett and upgrade their offense. This is the type of situation the Twins should look for..he shouldn't cost much in trade if the Twins would pay most of his salary. If Wandy is healthy, he's an above average starter for next year, and one that they could give a qualifying offer to after next year. If not, they mostly just give up money, which they should be spending anyway.

[Shane Wahl]

The Twins should not, this offseason, move laterally. They need to actually SIGN starting pitchers.

 

All trades should either be position player prospects for starting pitching prospects (doubtful) or trading oldsters away for mid-tier prospects.

[beckmt]

Unlikely the Twins will make any significant trades this offseason. The bulk of the major league roster has under performed this year, so has little value. Trading prospects is not the way to go. Only Dozier and Perkins would bring a decent return, and that would probably be undervalued.

[RodneyKline]

I would not trade Buxton because I think he is the real deal but I think Sano will not live up to his hype. He has a lot of raw power but will strike out a ton and not hit for average. The highest odds are that he will be more like Adam Dunn than Miguel Cabrera in my opinion. I think you could get a huge ransom for Sano.