Should the Minnesota Twins bring A.J. Minter back in 2027?

[Sherry Cerny]

Many complaints about the Twins' bullpen are echoed by fans and reflected when the staff is asked to carry too much because the starting core cannot go deep into games.

The Minnesota Twins obtained A.J. Minter from the New York Mets at the trade deadline, adding a left-handed reliever with experience and the potential to strengthen their bullpen. Although he had a few tough performances late in the season, his overall record with the Twins gives them reason to consider bringing him back for 2027.

In 25 games, Minter went 1-1 with a 2.78 ERA, 21 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings and a .218 batting average against. He also earned 0.6 bWAR, underscoring his significant contribution during his stint with Minnesota.

That's when the conversation becomes intriguing.

Don’t Let the Ending Define the Season

Pitchers are often judged by their most recent game; a few difficult outings late in the season can easily alter the story, but they should not automatically overshadow what came earlier.

It must be determined whether Minter's later struggles indicate a more serious issue or simply reflect a tough stretch within an otherwise successful career. The Twins must make that distinction before deciding on his future.

His 4.91 FIP, compared with his 2.78 ERA, also merits note, as does his struggle against lefties. The difference suggests that his ERA may not tell the full story and casts doubt on whether his run prevention is sustainable.

Many of those doubts stem from fans who say his ERA will not be sustainable given his considerably lower velocity as the season went on. In the off-season with the Mets, Minter was recovering from a torn left lat and prior hip labrum microfracture surgery.

Before his surgery, his fastball dipped from an average of 96.7 mph in 2022 to 92.5-93.7 mph this season. That's a huge drop in the world of pitching. Still, as he worked to improve, he performed better in high-leverage situations, allowing only eight walks over 22 innings. Only 4.3% to the leagues average 9.9%. So, while his struggles can be cited, his work ethic can be, too.

His results should not lead Minnesota to rely only on the surface figures when assessing his value.

Experience Comes with Value 

Minter brings more than his Minnesota statistics; with Atlanta, he appeared in high-pressure postseason situations, including the Braves’ 2021 World Series championship campaign.

Minter's walk rate was comparable to that of Robert Suarez, demonstrating the kind of command associated with high-leverage bullpen arms and strengthening the case for retaining him at the right price.

That experience could benefit a Twins team trying to build a competitive pitching staff, but one factor must be considered given his off-season history and its effect on his on-the-mound work.

Before making a decision, Minnesota should assess his medical outlook, velocity, and other basic performance figures. His recovery does not preclude a reunion, but it should factor into the length and value of any contract he may receive.

Make the Right Investment

The Twins should not overpay for familiarity, but they also shouldn't rule out a productive option without weighing the cost of replacing him.

Minter. who will be 33 years old until next September, has shown he can be effective in Minnesota. Still, his FIP and injury record provide valid grounds for caution, and together these factors should help the Twins make an informed decision.

The Twins pitching staff is a huge component of that. Since joining the Twins staff as bullpen coach a year ago, LaTroy Hawkins has been the pitcher whisperer. The bullpen pitchers, such as Minter, have improved by homing in on their “new normals.” For Minter, that has meant adjusting his fastball usage, relying more on cutter, and working with his lower velocity. 

The issue is not whether Minter had a perfect season, since he didn't; it is whether his performance, experience and potential contribution warrant a new contract.

Minter is on most top ten lists of bullpen free agents. The Twins might consider bringing A.J. Minter back for 2027; if his medical exam is positive and the financial terms are acceptable, that could be a sensible decision for Minnesota. 

It isn't always necessary to pursue the most well-known name when building an improved roster; sometimes what matters is identifying the value a player can bring and matching the investment to the opportunity.

Minter has given the Twins enough reason to keep the discussion going.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewitt - IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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[bjorks]

100% unless we want guys "trick-or-treat" Funderburk and Rogers back. Nothing wrong other than they'er average. Minter for 1/$12'ish if he'll sign it is good for me. 

[thelanges5]

Yes! They should sign a Minter or better LHP, and an Abreu or better RHP. 

[Fatbat]

3yr. $16M deal should do nicely. 

[Parfigliano]

Every team should have a guy named JoJo.

[TopGunn#22]

The velocity dip concerns me, but the guy knows how to pitch and he's light years ahead of Taylor Rogers at this stage of their careers.  You usually DO get what you pay for.  Morejon and Vesia are the top 2 rated LHRP's for a reason.  They're both unquestionably GOOD.  No concerning dips in velo.  Both at the top of their game.  But it's going to cost a LOT to sign either.

It would be nice to see a one-on-one comparison with JoJo Romero or Brock Burke or Gergory Soto before just answering "Yes."  I'm curious if a new pitching coach could unlock another level and more consistency from Funderburk. 

As winter unfolds, the staff at TD will need to do a deeper dive on the possible choices of BP arms, 1B or Catchers the Twins could choose from, as well as what possible trades for established major leaguers (Ryan, Larnach, Ober) or minor league talent (Tait, Gabe Gonzalez) could bring.   

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

3yr. $16M deal should do nicely. 

He will get double that amount 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He will get double that amount 

Last year the not elite relievers were getting 2 year contracts  Sportrac has him valued at 7.3 million.  

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Last year the not elite relievers were getting 2 year contracts  Sportrac has him valued at 7.3 million.  

He got 2 years $22M and is still as good as he was then. If you want 3 years it will cost $30M. 

[MeleMouth]

A lot of well-known relievers whose stats in the last year or two are similar to Minter's are going to be available, including many whose 2026 comp were much lower. Relief pitcher may be the deepest position in this year's free agency, so the Twins don't need to pay premium prices, nor should their 2027 team merit paying premium prices for relievers.

FanGraphs values Minter's last three seasons at $2.7 million - total for the three years, or $900 thousand per year. Minter will probably go for more than that, especially because that number isn't adjusted for the substantial parts of 2024 and 2025 he missed, but the Twins should pass if it gets much more than $5 million. Past injuries are the best predictor of future injuries, and above $5 million, that's a risk the Twins will not be able to afford, even if Pohlad raises the budget. If they need a reliever at mid-season, relievers like Minter will be available.

If you really want to pay a free agent reliever the amounts bandied about in these comments, look at others like Morejon, Loaisiga, Kittredge, or Phillips. 

[weitz41]

I'd like them to bring him back. But not at 11 mil per. I like Vesia over Minter if we're talking more than a 1-year deal.  2 reliever upgrades in the 6-10 range. Say Minter/Vesia and Abreu at 8 each. Hoffman closes in 2027. Then bring back Duran in 2028.

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He will get double that amount 

I wouldn’t value him at 10.5m/season. Especially on a 3 yr deal. 

[Andy MacPhail]

Steven Okert at #5? I liked him when we got him. He did well but petered out. I'm all for Minter getting back. His performance asks for less than the 11M. He's familiar with us & IMO he'll be better in '27.

[DJL44]

Look at last year’s relief signings. Anyone good enough to get more than $6M also received at least 2 seasons. Top of the market gets $18M x 4 years. Minter is getting at least 2 years $20M.

[bjorks]

7 hours ago, Fatbat said:

3yr. $16M deal should do nicely. 

Minter may not play another 3 years. I believe he's indicated he's one 1-year deals for the remainder of his career. 

[David HK]

Yes.

[Fatbat]

6 hours ago, bjorks said:

Minter may not play another 3 years. I believe he's indicated he's one 1-year deals for the remainder of his career. 

Thats interesting! He must want an easily tradable contract to be a hired gun and bounce to a potential playoff team. 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Thats interesting! He must want an easily tradable contract to be a hired gun and bounce to a potential playoff team. 

Maybe the small town Texas kid has enough money he can go back home and enjoy life. One year contracts mean you have no obligation past the current year.

[jmlease1]

The goal should be to bring back Minter or sign someone of his quality or better to be the primary LHP option in the bullpen. I'm fine with it being Minter' he did well upon acquisition and should have at least one more quality season left in him. No guarantees, and his injury history is concerning, but you have to think that if the Twins, who had him most recently and should have had the opportunity to give him a going over and have recent medicals on him will know if he's capable of holding up for another season.

The loss of velocity on the 4-seamer isn't great, but it's not like he doesn't have pitches that can get hitters out. The cutter is highly effective and that's not a pitch that needs to be thrown at 95mph to get outs, and he hasn't lost any velocity on that one over the years. 

2 years $17M?

[bjorks]

5 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Thats interesting! He must want an easily tradable contract to be a hired gun and bounce to a potential playoff team. 

1) I can't blame him, he's earned the right to do whatever he wants. I don't think he's as much as a hired gun as he's contemplating how much longer he wants to go. 

2) Velo and overall #'s in general have been on a bit of a decline since leaving ATL as he was an occasional closer, but his stuff isn't closer stuff anymore. If it were a thing, Minter was/would be a great LOOGY (do people even know what a LOOGY is anymore? LOL). 

3) While expensive, I'd rather pay 5x for a guy who's proven to be consistent than deal with the only consistency we have in our pen, which is inconsistency. 

UPDATE

4) Minter has just over 7 years of service, which is worth just over $200K presently as a pension once he reaches 62 w/7 years of service time. He's just about 3/4 of the way there. 

If he gets to 10 years of service he can max the pension out, which is right around $300k presently. I'm sure this is a big factor in his next contract. Maybe, if someone offers something like 3/$21 (I would not offer that) to max the pension out, but he is probably looking only at 1 year deals.   

Point is, he's established enough where he would rather have the $ later than presently. 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Maybe the small town Texas kid has enough money he can go back home and enjoy life. One year contracts mean you have no obligation past the current year.

Yeah, He has made about $38M i in n baseball.  If he has invested well, he should have about $15-20M net worth at his age.  Even pitching for another year or two sets him up for early retirement 😂

[Patzky]

So you're saying.. we could have someone like Steven Okert. 🙏 

[S Bart]

Rogers has an a new pitch for next year.

[ashbury]

44 minutes ago, S Bart said:

Rogers has an a new pitch for next year.

It's certain to save wear and tear on that right elbow and shoulder.