Andrew Morris Had a Strong Rookie Year. Now Comes the Next Step.

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

The 2026 season was full of young arms and bats making their major-league debuts for the Minnesota Twins. The first of those players to get the call was right-hander Andrew Morris.

Morris was drafted and developed as a starter, and he made a pair of starts in St. Paul before earning his promotion in early April. However, the Twins moved him to the bullpen out of need. The surface-level numbers don't necessarily reflect how well Morris pitched as a rookie. He finished the season with a 4.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, along with 69 strikeouts and 27 walks across 73 ⅔ innings. Those stats aren't particularly impressive, but they also don't tell the entire story of his first year in the majors.

There was a rather large discrepancy between Morris's traditional statistics and what the underlying data suggested about his performance. Both his FIP and expected ERA hovered around 3.30, indicating that he pitched considerably better than his ERA would suggest. A big reason for that difference was his ability to limit hard contact. 

He ranked in the 91st percentile or better among major league pitchers in both barrel rate and average exit velocity allowed. His hard-hit rate was also in the top quarter of the league, showing that hitters had a difficult time squaring him up consistently. That approach is interesting when considering that Morris’s four-seam fastball averaged 97.4 mph, the highest average velocity of any Twins pitcher. Despite that premium velocity, however, he didn't overpower hitters in the traditional sense. He didn't generate many strikeouts, swings and misses, or chases outside the strike zone.

But that's never really been Morris's game. He's always been a pitcher who relies on commanding the strike zone and limiting damage rather than blowing hitters away. And while his rookie numbers weren't perfect, he showed that approach can translate to the major leagues.

I'd consider Morris's first season a strong foundation to build upon. However, as he heads into his first offseason as a major leaguer, there are some things he can polish up. I think the biggest opportunity lies in his arsenal and how he distributes his pitches.

Part of what allowed Morris to limit hard contact so effectively was his six-pitch mix. He's embraced the modern three-fastball approach, working with a four-seam fastball, sinker, and cutter. He also features a changeup, sweeper, and curveball, giving him plenty of options to keep hitters off balance. The problem is that not all six pitches were equally effective. In particular, I'd argue that his sinker was a weakness in his arsenal.

The pitch has a relatively lackluster movement profile and was the only offering in his arsenal to receive a below-average Stuff+ grade. Hitters also had their most success against the sinker, posting an expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .400 against it. In other words, hitters were producing like James Wood against his sinker. Not the ideal comparison.

His changeup presents a slightly different situation. Like the sinker, it lacks the kind of horizontal movement that can make a pitch particularly difficult to square up. Morris's steep, over-the-top arm angle allows him to generate plenty of vertical movement, especially with his four-seam fastball riding high in the strike zone. However, that same arm angle makes it difficult to generate arm-side run on his secondary pitches. Someone like Joe Ryan, who has a much flatter arm angle, can create more pronounced tailing action, which is what’s made him so successful over the last few years.

Morris's changeup still played reasonably well, largely because of how frequently he threw fastballs. But I think there's an opportunity to reduce his changeup usage slightly in 2027 and give another pitch a larger role. That pitch should be his sweeper.

The sweeper was Morris's best pitch according to Stuff+, earning an outstanding 135 grade. Among pitchers who threw at least 70 innings in 2026, that was the third-highest mark in the league. That's not something the Twins should overlook, especially when looking for ways to get more out of a young pitcher with plenty of potential. Morris threw his sweeper just 9% of the time, making it a much different look from his fastballs and changeup. It's easy to look at that usage and suggest he should dramatically increase it, but I don't think that's necessarily the answer.

I'd like to see Morris use his sweeper a little more often; around 15% of the time. It's a quality pitch that could help him generate more swings and misses, but there's no need to turn it into a primary offering. Keeping its usage relatively modest would allow him to maintain the deception that makes it so effective. Meanwhile, he should continue leaning on his four-seam fastball and cutter. Those pitches can serve as the foundation of his arsenal, while the sweeper gives hitters another look to consider. I'd also like to see him scale back his sinker and changeup usage, effectively giving the sweeper a larger role in his pitch mix.

 

It's a relatively simple adjustment, but one that could make a meaningful difference. Morris already does an excellent job limiting hard contact, and he doesn't need to completely reinvent himself to take the next step. Finding a better balance between his six pitches could help him generate more whiffs without sacrificing the contact quality that made him successful in his rookie season.

The Twins have plenty of questions to answer as they look toward 2027, particularly when it comes to building a more dependable bullpen. Morris isn't going to solve every late-inning problem on his own, but he has the foundation to become an important piece of that group. With some adjustments to his pitch usage, Morris could take another step forward and establish himself as a shutdown late-inning option. Considering how much the Twins could use another reliable arm in high-leverage situations, that's an outcome worth getting excited about.

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[thelanges5]

Developmental success story. Good learning and transition season from starter to bullpen. Thanks for the analysis. 

[Parfigliano]

Hopefully Morris is one of many TC that takes a step up in 2027.

[Blyleven2011]

Morris did well through the season until he tired down the stretch so it seems  …

is endurance in his future along with his season of experience , it was a decent season for a pitcher that came through our system , he delivered and strengthened our bullpen , let’s hope he continues to get better  …

[SE23]

Morris was the very definition of 'replacement level' in 2026 (0.0 WAR, 97 ERA+) -- which isn't a bad thing. Both his youth and his advanced stats are reasons for optimism. Will he learn from mistakes, make the adjustments to his pitch mix, refine his command? He's got the talent.

[bean5302]

Morris had a terrible time stranding runners last year, and while he was pretty average on getting hitters to chase outside the zone, there was too much contact outside that strike zone.

Stuff+ suggests Morris has very good stuff with two plus pitches. The cutter a 55 grade and a 65 grade slider. Coupled with a solid fastball, and two other 50 grade offerings, on paper, Morris "should" be a stud. Thing is, he's never been a stud at AAA, either.

In addition, it's not the sinker which saw poor results. It was the aforementioned slider, and his changeup got pounded.

This may be the exact scenario Justin Verlander talked about when it comes to grading pitches. Coaches and Scouts getting way too confident in movement on paper rather than effectiveness in the field.

Morris "should" have been better. Just like Ricky Nolasco "should" have been better. Time will tell if there's some opportunity for the results to start panning out.

[Parfigliano]

28 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Morris had a terrible time stranding runners last year, and while he was pretty average on getting hitters to chase outside the zone, there was too much contact outside that strike zone.

Stuff+ suggests Morris has very good stuff with two plus pitches. The cutter a 55 grade and a 65 grade slider. Coupled with a solid fastball, and two other 50 grade offerings, on paper, Morris "should" be a stud. Thing is, he's never been a stud at AAA, either.

In addition, it's not the sinker which saw poor results. It was the aforementioned slider, and his changeup got pounded.

This may be the exact scenario Justin Verlander talked about when it comes to grading pitches. Coaches and Scouts getting way too confident in movement on paper rather than effectiveness in the field.

Morris "should" have been better. Just like Ricky Nolasco "should" have been better. Time will tell if there's some opportunity for the results to start panning out.

Results on the field the only thing that counts.

[bean5302]

19 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Results on the field the only thing that counts.

Sounds like results don't matter at all to a significant number of coaches. I think this is a major flaw in today's game.

https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/2077122540212793496/video/1

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

TBH, I have more hope in Adams than I do in Morris. 

Most players have a decent stretch or 2 throughout a major league season. Look at Zebby in August. Morris had a hot stretch for a while. But when it mattered most and we were trying to get back into a wild card spot, he became the worst pitcher in baseball. Literally. He's a rookie and had right around an "average" overall season, which isn't nothing. I look forward to more development from him. 

Adams, also a rookie, struggled quite a bit for a the first few months of his big league debut, but he got stronger and pitched better as the season progressed. Im hoping he can continue to pitch like he did at the end of the season. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

30 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Results on the field the only thing that counts.

If a team were to have this approach, they would never develop rookies into established veterans.