How Have Vahn Lackey and Carson Tinney Performed in Their First Tastes of Pro Ball?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

It’s been a little over a month since the 2026 MLB Draft, and we’re already at the point where a lot of the top prospects in this year’s class are everyday players within their respective organizations. The Twins’ top two draft picks, catchers Vahn Lackey and Carson Tinney, are part of that group. The two have been doing essentially all of the catching for Low-A Fort Myers, and while neither Lackey nor Tinney has even 60 plate appearances under their belt yet, it’s easy to see the upside they both clearly possess.

We’ll start with Lackey. He got drafted first, so that only seems fair. Across 44 at-bats, Lackey has logged nine hits, including a pair of doubles and a pair of triples. He’s driven in seven runs, scored nine times, and his impressive athleticism has already led to three stolen bases. He’s also walked nine times, which is an encouraging sign considering that he hasn’t exactly been tearing the cover off the baseball.

The biggest issue thus far for Lackey has been strikeouts. That’s not particularly surprising, considering this is his first taste of professional pitching. He’s struck out in 15 of his 44 at-bats, but the underlying numbers are actually pretty encouraging. The impressive plate discipline Lackey showed at Georgia Tech has carried over to professional baseball. En route to those nine walks, Lackey is swinging at just 36.8% of the pitches he’s seeing. That’s a pretty low number; most hitters swing at just under half of the pitches they face.

Rather than aggressively chasing out of the zone, Lackey is taking what opposing pitchers are giving him, and they aren’t giving him many hittable pitches. His quality of contact hasn’t been exceptional, and he's yet to hit his first professional home run, but that’s not a huge concern at this point. He’s a smart, pure hitter with plus athleticism for a catcher. He’s made consistent contact and shown an ability to get on base.

We’ve also gotten to see his defense on full display. Lackey has thrown out six baserunners on 23 attempts, good for a 26% caught-stealing rate. That’s not awful, and that number was considerably higher earlier in the month. But teams have been running on him a lot, and his defense was just as prominent as his bat coming into the draft. Because of that, his development behind the plate will be just as important as his development at the plate.

There’s a lot to like about what Lackey has shown over his first stretch of professional baseball. The same can be said for Tinney, although it’s interesting to note the similarities and differences between the two. Tinney was drafted as much more of a power-first bat out of the University of Texas, and we’ve already seen some of that power on display. He’s launched four home runs across his first 13 games, including one walk-off home run. His first professional homer came off the bat at 115 MPH, giving us a glimpse of the impact power the Twins believed he could bring to the organization.

But Tinney also came into professional baseball with impressive discipline at the plate, while his bat-to-ball skills lagged behind. Both of those traits have been on display early. In 58 plate appearances, Tinney has walked 13 times and struck out 19 times. Though he’s hitting just .159, his on-base percentage is .362. Much like Lackey, Tinney has been extremely selective. His swing rate is even lower than Lackey’s, at 30.9%. You could argue that’s too low, especially considering that he’s swinging at fewer than half of the pitches he’s seeing in the strike zone. It seems like both catchers could help themselves by being a little more aggressive on pitches in the zone. That’s obviously easier said than done when opposing pitchers aren’t giving them many pitches to hit, but as they continue to develop and get more professional at-bats under their belts, I’d expect that to change.

When Tinney does connect, good things have happened. His average exit velocity is 92 MPH, paired with a 90th-percentile exit velocity of 103.3 MPH. We’re talking about an extremely small sample size here, but it’s encouraging to see Tinney’s power translating early in his professional career.

The other side of the equation, however, hasn’t been quite as encouraging. Tinney’s 60-grade arm was a significant part of his profile coming into the draft, but it really hasn’t translated yet. Opposing runners have seven successful stolen bases, and Tinney hasn't thrown out anyone. Though teams haven’t been running on Tinney quite as much, they’ve been successful when they do. That’s something to keep an eye on as his development continues.

It’s important not to overreact to any of these numbers. We’re talking about two players who have barely begun their professional careers. There will be plenty of highs and lows as both adjust to the daily grind of professional baseball. Lackey and Tinney have both shown flashes of the upside the Twins saw.

There are obvious areas for both players to improve, particularly when it comes to their aggressiveness at the plate and their defensive development. That’s what this part of the process is all about. For now, the most important thing is that both Lackey and Tinney are getting everyday opportunities to develop, and both have already given Twins fans plenty of reasons to be excited about what could come next. Hopefully, this is just the start of a couple of long, successful careers.

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[PuckettPond]

Both needed and great picks. Curious will they stay or move up to A+ this year? Looking forward for their big leaps in development next year. Looking forward to the Twins drafting college arms 1st few picks in a draft. How long has it been since the Twins drafted a 1st round pitcher? Seems like the best Twins pitchers have come via trades. 

[jmlease1]

Lackey's doing fine, i think. Be nice to see him rack up a few more hits, just to keep people from getting overheated about the low (for now) BA, but he clearly knows the strike zone. I'm also not worrying about a guy not showing much power in his first days in the FSL. Considering how much teams are running on him and how bad A-ball pitchers are at holding runners on, I'd say he's doing a pretty good job controlling the running game.

Tinney has some work to do: the low contact rates are going to be concerning, even with massive power. He's never going to be the catcher that Lackey is (people have been predicting a move from out of there since before he was drafted) and his path up the ranks is clearly through his bat. But he can't be sub-Mendoza Line for that power to play up. Against A-ball guys he'll be able to get lots of cheap walks by knowing the strike zone and a willingness to be selective...but he'll need to K less and hit more.

I'd say a B so far on Lackey (he's not destroying Ft. Myers by any means but hardly looking lost either), more of a C/C+ on Tinney...who is much more of a boom/bust candidate anyways.

[SE23]

Will there be any more movement in the Twins' farm system this year? Cedar Rapids has 16 games left on the schedule. Maybe move Lackey up and get him 40 AB's in A+ ball this year? Likewise the Saints have 28 games remaining. Is there a case for moving Houston up there?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Similar to Houston there is an adjustment period - there is also an aspect in A ball they are seeing pitchers of less quality than they saw in college.  They should both be in high A shortly and then I think we will get a better idea of where they are at.