Week in Review: The Dream Is Fading

[Jeff K]

It was more fun than expected; but it is 100% time to Bring up Jenkins, Rojas and possibly others.  I did not watch yesterday's game, but I see that Martin had to leave it from some kind of injury.  If he goes on the DL, there is no further reason to hold back Jenkins.  And no, I don't care about service time and the 40 man roster.  Bring him up and let's give him a taste of the major leagues.

[Saxophone Joe]

23 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If the reports on Tolle / Arias are true

Has there been any follow-up reporting from the Twins beat writers, i.e. Dan Hayes and Bobby Nightengale, Jr., on this rumor? Dan said a few months back that the two sides weren't close to a deal. 

[chpettit19]

12 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Dennis Green once said something that seems relevant right now.  

The lost opportunity to use the last few months to build towards the future is going to bite this team down the line.  As all bad investments do.

Whatever "goodwill" to the fanbase the deadline was supposed to represent is going to be eliminated by a completely irrelevant September.

I agree with the general sentiment here, but I don't know that September will be irrelevant. Well, no more irrelevant than the rest of the season. The situation hasn't really changed since the bad investments you referred to went down.

The challenge at the deadline was always whether or not they'd take an unbiased, hard look at the talent on the team and make a decision on the best baseball path forward to being the best team they can be. I'd argue they didn't do that but instead looked at what they perceived the best PR move would be. But the situation between then and now hasn't changed. The pitch then was "we're playoff contenders! Ignore us being below .500 and just focus on us being 1 game back in the wild card and 4 out of the division." The situation is essentially the same. Still a below .500 team that is now 6 out of the division but still only 1.5 back of the wild card.

They're just as "relevant" now as they were at the deadline. They'll keep selling the "we're contenders" storyline the rest of the year.

[TheLeviathan]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I agree with the general sentiment here, but I don't know that September will be irrelevant. Well, no more irrelevant than the rest of the season. The situation hasn't really changed since the bad investments you referred to went down.

The challenge at the deadline was always whether or not they'd take an unbiased, hard look at the talent on the team and make a decision on the best baseball path forward to being the best team they can be. I'd argue they didn't do that but instead looked at what they perceived the best PR move would be. But the situation between then and now hasn't changed. The pitch then was "we're playoff contenders! Ignore us being below .500 and just focus on us being 1 game back in the wild card and 4 out of the division." The situation is essentially the same. Still a below .500 team that is now 6 out of the division but still only 1.5 back of the wild card.

They're just as "relevant" now as they were at the deadline. They'll keep selling the "we're contenders" storyline the rest of the year.

Oh for sure....this team was never good.  I think back to all those articles about "no half measures" and "the Twins are going to win the PR game and show people they're serious".  So many of those arguments were predicated on playing meaningful baseball down the stretch.  How's that looking a mere two weeks after those bold proclamations?  We still have people arguing this was a good "business move"!  I don't know how anyone does that with a straight face while we stare down a far more plausible conversation about lottery odds than playoff odds.

I also think it's worth noting here, because @jkcarew is doing his damnedest to get people to see the folly of the team's "contention" in another thread, that there was basically two reasons to believe this team was ever a contender:

1) Best offense in the AL.  Yup.  They were.  They also were hitting like Tony Gwynn everytime there were runners in scoring position.  A lineup of Tony Gwynns we are not.  The regression was inevitable.  

2) The WC standings.  A stat that has almost nothing to do with the Twins themselves.  Merely a reflection on an entire league being garbage.

Everything else?  Run diff, bullpen, defense, regression, the play of your stars, depth, strength of schedule....all pointed to "who the heck are we kidding?"

We chose poorly.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Oh for sure....this team was never good.  I think back to all those articles about "no half measures" and "the Twins are going to win the PR game and show people they're serious".  So many of those arguments were predicated on playing meaningful baseball down the stretch.  How's that looking a mere two weeks after those bold proclamations?  We still have people arguing this was a good "business move"!  I don't know how anyone does that with a straight face while we stare down a far more plausible conversation about lottery odds than playoff odds.

I also think it's worth noting here, because @jkcarew is doing his damnedest to get people to see the folly of the team's "contention" in another thread, that there was basically two reasons to believe this team was ever a contender:

1) Best offense in the AL.  Yup.  They were.  They also were hitting like Tony Gwynn everytime there were runners in scoring position.  A lineup of Tony Gwynns we are not.  The regression was inevitable.  

2) The WC standings.  A stat that has almost nothing to do with the Twins themselves.  Merely a reflection on an entire league being garbage.

Everything else?  Run diff, bullpen, defense, regression, the play of your stars, depth, strength of schedule....all pointed to "who the heck are we kidding?"

We chose poorly.

I can sort of answer the "who the heck are we kidding" question. A lot of fans. Their PR move didn't flop. And we'll have numerous posters on this site praising them for the rest of the season. There were a number of articles written on here in the days following the deadline how Tom Pohlad "proved" things. How we should believe this Pohlad is different. How we have owners who truly care and want to win now. All that garbage. And many fans ate it up.

The power of expectations is carrying a lot of weight this year. People have spent most of the last few months talking about how they're "overachieving." How they're playing much better than the offseason projections and predictions thought they would. But they weren't. Not by record. Most fans on here and the projection systems had them in the mid-70s for wins. Which is what they've been on pace for most of the year. But since they weren't on pace for 60 wins the idea that they were overachieving landed. Mix that with the anti-analytics sentiment of not caring about predictive stats that say they're going to regress and the business department/Tom Pohlad was handed a PR gold mine at the deadline. All he had to do was say they're contending, have Zoll make minimal investments in the team, and the fan morale went up, Twins focused websites sang his praises. We were back, baby! And they'll continue to sell the story until some other AL team gets good and breaks away in the wild card race.

The fact that there's any sales pitch needed to convince people this team was never really contenders says it all. Fans are starved for any crumb of hope. And the AL sucking handed it to them.

[Saxophone Joe]

Another week of this and Shelton's liable to go Lee Elia on the bit. "The name of the game is hit the ball, catch the ball..."  He barely contained his rage yesterday lmao. 

[TheLeviathan]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I can sort of answer the "who the heck are we kidding" question. A lot of fans. Their PR move didn't flop. And we'll have numerous posters on this site praising them for the rest of the season. There were a number of articles written on here in the days following the deadline how Tom Pohlad "proved" things. How we should believe this Pohlad is different. How we have owners who truly care and want to win now. All that garbage. And many fans ate it up.

The power of expectations is carrying a lot of weight this year. People have spent most of the last few months talking about how they're "overachieving." How they're playing much better than the offseason projections and predictions thought they would. But they weren't. Not by record. Most fans on here and the projection systems had them in the mid-70s for wins. Which is what they've been on pace for most of the year. But since they weren't on pace for 60 wins the idea that they were overachieving landed. Mix that with the anti-analytics sentiment of not caring about predictive stats that say they're going to regress and the business department/Tom Pohlad was handed a PR gold mine at the deadline. All he had to do was say they're contending, have Zoll make minimal investments in the team, and the fan morale went up, Twins focused websites sang his praises. We were back, baby! And they'll continue to sell the story until some other AL team gets good and breaks away in the wild card race.

The fact that there's any sales pitch needed to convince people this team was never really contenders says it all. Fans are starved for any crumb of hope. And the AL sucking handed it to them.

I think it should be noted...this argument is landing only with the diehards.  The casuals never saw a winner and a half measure deadline sure waan't going to change that.  All the next 40 games will do is tell the casuals they were right and the diehards will start the newest spin-job.

You are so right, though, about how quick and thick the fawning got over two freaking relievers on a 75 win team.

[NYCTK]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I can sort of answer the "who the heck are we kidding" question. A lot of fans. Their PR move didn't flop. And we'll have numerous posters on this site praising them for the rest of the season. There were a number of articles written on here in the days following the deadline how Tom Pohlad "proved" things. How we should believe this Pohlad is different. How we have owners who truly care and want to win now. All that garbage. And many fans ate it up.

The power of expectations is carrying a lot of weight this year. People have spent most of the last few months talking about how they're "overachieving." How they're playing much better than the offseason projections and predictions thought they would. But they weren't. Not by record. Most fans on here and the projection systems had them in the mid-70s for wins. Which is what they've been on pace for most of the year. But since they weren't on pace for 60 wins the idea that they were overachieving landed. Mix that with the anti-analytics sentiment of not caring about predictive stats that say they're going to regress and the business department/Tom Pohlad was handed a PR gold mine at the deadline. All he had to do was say they're contending, have Zoll make minimal investments in the team, and the fan morale went up, Twins focused websites sang his praises. We were back, baby! And they'll continue to sell the story until some other AL team gets good and breaks away in the wild card race.

The fact that there's any sales pitch needed to convince people this team was never really contenders says it all. Fans are starved for any crumb of hope. And the AL sucking handed it to them.

Now Tom can whine to the fans over the winter about how unfair the system is, that he just can't compete financially with the big markets, and convince those same easily duped fans that a Salary Cap is necessary for the Minnesota Twins future. 

[tony&rodney]

35 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Now Tom can whine to the fans over the winter about how unfair the system is, that he just can't compete financially with the big markets, and convince those same easily duped fans that a Salary Cap is necessary for the Minnesota Twins future. 

The odd unbalanced roster construction and failure to address it was quite evident after the 2023 season. The drafts have seen some change toward more athletic players but the front office is still struggling to move fully forward. The deadline frenzy in July of 2025 seemed to portend further moves. The mythical Red Sox-Twins trade that fell through and  making the Alex Jackson deal the centerpiece of your offseason was a loud thud of reality for those of us who imagined an influx of talent. This offseason there are some obvious examples of changes that need to occur and there should be opportunities for transactions unless other MLB front offices hold their Minnesota colleagues in low regard, which really doesn't seem that likely. 

A salary cap does nothing for the Twins and if it came with a salary floor the team could be a bigger mess next season. The owners created the revenue morass and only they can fix it. I'm wondering how the Dodgers, Yankees, and a few other clubs are going to respond to losing huge swaths of income which is currently "protected" by previous deals made between the owners. Does that seem realistic?

Finally, I will revert to suggesting that money has not been a problem for roster construction. Identifying talent and making the moves needed to address weaknesses are the issue. One can only sit and hope that enlightenment dawns on the front office and Twins ownership that then allows the franchise to move in a positive direction.

[bean5302]

I don't know what people expected of Kaelen Culpepper? Did somebody think he was Barry Bonds or something? Slowish start? The guy is at wRC+ 114 as a shortstop. He's hitting as well at the MLB level as he did at AAA relative to his peers. 

Culpepper is exceeding any reasonable expectations.

 

[BillyBallLives]

This season was lost in April and May, not lost in August and September.

Same song different verse since 2023

[bean5302]

So the Twins have slipped to 20% chance of playoffs. They still have a roster logjam and no clearly established positions on the team apart from catcher and CF because Zoll's operating principles are still the same as it was when Falvey was here.

Side note, I didn't realize Byron Buxton had been afflicted with Alex Kirilloff disease (if player does not go 5/5 with 5 HR and magically create 3 base runners prior to their plate appearance, they are hurt that game).

The Twins now need German Marquez to regain his form as a ground ball pitcher and be a playoff caliber starter. That's probably the team's only ticket to advance in the post season. I feel like that's juuuuuuuuuust a bit outside.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Now Tom can whine to the fans over the winter about how unfair the system is, that he just can't compete financially with the big markets, and convince those same easily duped fans that a Salary Cap is necessary for the Minnesota Twins future. 

While I fully expect this story to be a large part of the CBA stuff, I have to give Tom credit to this point that he hasn't said anything like that, to my knowledge. He's actually been pretty good at saying they just need to spend more.

[saviking]

13 hours ago, Danchat said:

Not sure if trading 2 top 20 prospects and a few top 50 ones will come back to haunt us. And both of those top 20 prospects got traded for guys with another year of control, with the way Kremer is pitching then getting another year of him for something like $7M is a bargain, lockout pending of course.

And this is coming from someone who wasn't pushing for this team to make trades for the reasons you have mentioned. These trades don't feel like they have the risk of the Jorge Lopez and Tyler Mahle trades of the past.

The trades we made were fine. If we tender Jefferson, someone out bids us and we get a comp pick that woukd be fine. And if we can still get a couple quality players for Ryan in the offseasoj we can still salvage things. 

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, saviking said:

The trades we made were fine. If we tender Jefferson, someone out bids us and we get a comp pick that woukd be fine. And if we can still get a couple quality players for Ryan in the offseasoj we can still salvage things. 

They aren't getting nearly as much for a hurt Ryan as they would have this off-season. Not close. I'm not going to praise them for getting pennies when they could have had dollars. 

[saviking]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They aren't getting nearly as much for a hurt Ryan as they would have this off-season. Not close. I'm not going to praise them for getting pennies when they could have had dollars. 

Valid point 👉 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They aren't getting nearly as much for a hurt Ryan as they would have this off-season. Not close. I'm not going to praise them for getting pennies when they could have had dollars. 

I don't think there's any real option of trading Ryan anymore. Obviously, in the technical sense they can. But not for anything worthwhile. They went from 2 top 100 prospects plus to maybe a borderline top 100 guy on his way down after stalling a bit in the high minors? 

At this point, their best path forward on him may be to try to spin this into a "cheap" extension. If they're really willing to spend more, trying to get another 2 years (on top of next year) at discounted rates from him and Lopez may be their best option. The likely result is they get a comp pick for each of them, and maybe Jeffers. Tried to play both sides of the fence like many of us complained about them doing during the offseason and got hit with just about the worst-case scenario. Went from 4 or 5 top 100 prospects plus to 3 comp picks and a sub-.500 team anyways. Brutal.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think there's any real option of trading Ryan anymore. Obviously, in the technical sense they can. But not for anything worthwhile. They went from 2 top 100 prospects plus to maybe a borderline top 100 guy on his way down after stalling a bit in the high minors? 

At this point, their best path forward on him may be to try to spin this into a "cheap" extension. If they're really willing to spend more, trying to get another 2 years (on top of next year) at discounted rates from him and Lopez may be their best option. The likely result is they get a comp pick for each of them, and maybe Jeffers. Tried to play both sides of the fence like many of us complained about them doing during the offseason and got hit with just about the worst-case scenario. Went from 4 or 5 top 100 prospects plus to 3 comp picks and a sub-.500 team anyways. Brutal.

I, unfortunately, agree. 

[jkcarew]

4 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Oh for sure....this team was never good.  I think back to all those articles about "no half measures" and "the Twins are going to win the PR game and show people they're serious".  So many of those arguments were predicated on playing meaningful baseball down the stretch.  How's that looking a mere two weeks after those bold proclamations?  We still have people arguing this was a good "business move"!  I don't know how anyone does that with a straight face while we stare down a far more plausible conversation about lottery odds than playoff odds.

I also think it's worth noting here, because @jkcarew is doing his damnedest to get people to see the folly of the team's "contention" in another thread, that there was basically two reasons to believe this team was ever a contender:

1) Best offense in the AL.  Yup.  They were.  They also were hitting like Tony Gwynn everytime there were runners in scoring position.  A lineup of Tony Gwynns we are not.  The regression was inevitable.  

2) The WC standings.  A stat that has almost nothing to do with the Twins themselves.  Merely a reflection on an entire league being garbage.

Everything else?  Run diff, bullpen, defense, regression, the play of your stars, depth, strength of schedule....all pointed to "who the heck are we kidding?"

We chose poorly.

Probably contrary to popular opinion, I’d love to see the Twins get into the postseason. It’s not inconceivable by any stretch that they still could…and could even advance. Maybe you learn something about a player or two that you don’t already know. That’s the state of the AL this season.

But what I’d love more, is before I die or forget what a baseball is (65 and currently healthy, thank you 😉)…for the Twins to be a legitimately really good team in the national conversation for a Pennant and WS. Zero reason that can’t happen. But I don’t see anything close to that in organizational commitment. It’s empirically obvious that it’s not even a goal. And that commitment, or in this case lack of commitment, involves money, but goes well beyond just money.

[TheLeviathan]

46 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Probably contrary to popular opinion, I’d love to see the Twins get into the postseason. It’s not inconceivable by any stretch that they still could…and could even advance. Maybe you learn something about a player or two that you don’t already know. That’s the state of the AL this season.

But what I’d love more, is before I die or forget what a baseball is (65 and currently healthy, thank you 😉)…for the Twins to be a legitimately really good team in the national conversation for a Pennant and WS. Zero reason that can’t happen. But I don’t see anything close to that in organizational commitment. It’s empirically obvious that it’s not even a goal. And that commitment, or in this case lack of commitment, involves money, but goes well beyond just money.

I am right there with you.  Hell, I wanted them to go on a losing streak before the deadline just so the phony "we're contenders" stuff could be dispatched.  Rip off 40 in a row if you want after that, I'd be happy to see the playoffs.  

Terrible asset management has been a huge part of why none of us have seen a World Series since 1991.  This deadline was yet another example.

[LastOnePicked]

12 hours ago, howeda7 said:

Doing that would have left us with a $50 million payroll and zero fan base the season before a likely lockout.

You can't have such prospect blinders on that you completely destroy the business side of the franchise in pursuit of precious precious prospect lottery tickets, 80% of which will bust. 

In a word: no.

There is no fan base for this team as it is. They put all of their chips in, all for announced crowds of 21K and actual crowds of about 12K. 25th ranked attendance in MLB, and yet they play in a top 5 ballpark.

The only thing that will increase the fanbase is winning a championship. The only thing that wins a championship is fielding an elite team. The only way for a midmarket team to field an elite team is through elite prospects. The only way to get elite prospects is to build a vision for short-term pains and long-term gains. Overhaul scouting and development. Take lumps. Trade when at an advantage. Strengthen and grow.

None of this is rocket science. I don't know why so many fans reject it. Is it foolproof? Nope. Pirates have managed to screw up this process several times. But there is absolutely no path to a championship for a middling .500 club that continues to nibble at the fringes of the roster year after year after year. None.

[weitz41]

The had a snowballs chance in.... So now they're getting to the point of a snowflake's chance.

It's not like they traded any prospects away that would help next season. Hoffman and Kremer will be around, like spending on FA's before the season begins...Yes, Hill has a big upside, but other than that, nothing lost for a season or two or more. If there was a lost opportunity for greater improvement down the road it was in what they MIGHT have got in trading Jeffers and Larnach. Anyone know what those offers were?

Going to need a 10-5 run over the next 5 series. If not, time to start getting the triple A guys some MLB at-bats and preparing for 2027.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

The had a snowballs chance in.... So now they're getting to the point of a snowflake's chance.

It's not like they traded any prospects away that would help next season. Hoffman and Kremer will be around, like spending on FA's before the season begins...Yes, Hill has a big upside, but other than that, nothing lost for a season or two or more. If there was a lost opportunity for greater improvement down the road it was in what they MIGHT have got in trading Jeffers and Larnach. Anyone know what those offers were?

Going to need a 10-5 run over the next 5 series. If not, time to start getting the triple A guys some MLB at-bats and preparing for 2027.

The lost opportunity was not getting guys back from trading guys away.... All to sell like 8 more tickets.

[weitz41]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The lost opportunity was not getting guys back from trading guys away.... All to sell like 8 more tickets.

Those were sold right after the trade deadline. NO REFUNDS! I will say I was tempted to get tickets for the Twins/Brewers series after that. Almost got me. I think it was $90+ for visitor BP seats. 

The lost trades could have yielded zero mlb players. Could have been Tatis. We'll never know.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

The lost opportunity was not getting guys back from trading guys away.... All to sell like 8 more tickets.

I think that's the part I find the most frustrating.  The folks on the board who bent over backwards to heap praise on the team for their moves are diehards.  The diehards that would still tune in if they sold at the deadline.  Tune in if the Twins play in capes.  Tune in if the Twins started Buxton on the mound.  Tune in if they went to bat with 2 x 4s.  They tune in no matter what.  They selfishly wanted their needs met and absolutely refused to hear that it was a long-term bad move.   The Pohlads then sought out the council of these folks and made decisions based on feels and not the cold, hard decision making the top teams do to stay on top year in and year out.

They were so sure about the goodwill and positive messaging but they forget that the casuals that turn 20k into 40k could give two craps about a 75 win team adding some relievers.  Only the diehards cared.  They didn't sell more tickets.  They didn't build more goodwill.  The only thing August 2nd accomplished was another day of lost value and poor asset management.

A Twins tradition like no other.