Going Oppo: The Twins Wanted to Trade Trevor Larnach; Now They're Stuck

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Trevor Larnach has quietly been one of the Minnesota Twins' best hitters over the course of the 2026 season. He's currently slashing .281/.370/.449 across 347 plate appearances, good for an .819 OPS and a 129 OPS+. He's become Derek Shelton's primary leadoff hitter, consistently getting on base while providing quality at-bats at the top of the lineup. After taking plenty of criticism from Twins Territory this past offseason—some of it admittedly coming from me—Larnach has done nothing but prove people wrong.

Despite all of that, I still think the Twins made a mistake by keeping him at this year's trade deadline.

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Going Oppo is two stories on Twins Daily with different opinions running simultaneously. Read the other side here.

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To be clear, this has nothing to do with Larnach as a player. It's about the position the organization has put itself in. The Twins made it abundantly clear leading up to the deadline that they intended to move Larnach. In fact, they did everything but finalize it. A deal was reportedly in place to send him to the Houston Astros before it ultimately fell apart. Astros’ owner Jim Crane backed out at the last minute, and as a result, Larnach is staying in Minnesota. That sounds like a good thing on the surface. After all, why would you complain about keeping one of your best hitters?

Because the Twins had already shown their hand. Now, assuming they revisit trade discussions this offseason or next summer, they'll be trying to move a player who's one step closer to free agency. Instead of selling a controllable outfielder, they'll be marketing an expiring contract. Whether that's this winter or next July, Larnach's trade value almost certainly won't be as high as it was just 24 hours before the deadline.

But that's not even the biggest issue. The Twins have one of the deepest collections of left-handed hitting corner outfield talent in baseball–it's almost an embarrassment of riches. At the top of that list are the organization's No. 1 prospect, Walker Jenkins, and No. 4 prospect, Emmanuel Rodriguez. Both have made it abundantly clear this season that they're ready for the major leagues, yet neither has a clear path to consistent playing time.

For as similar as their situations seem, they're actually a little different. Rodriguez is already 23 years old and occupies a spot on the Twins' 40-man roster. After spending time on the injured list, he recently began a rehab assignment and should be back in the St. Paul Saints' lineup very soon. Once he's healthy, though, what happens? Unless another outfielder gets hurt, there simply isn't playing time waiting for him in the majors. Instead, the Twins are left with one of their best prospects sitting in Triple-A; not because he isn't ready, but because there's nowhere to play him. That's not an ideal situation for either the player or the organization.

Jenkins' situation is a little easier to justify. He's two years younger than Rodriguez and isn't yet on the 40-man roster, giving the Twins significantly more flexibility. Despite playing center field regularly with the Saints, he was not called up to play center field when Byron Buxton was recently placed on the IL.  Considering the uncertainty surrounding the 2027 season and the long-term picture, that's not necessarily the wrong approach. There's no need to rush a player who could become a franchise cornerstone.

At the same time, Jenkins has done just about everything you could ask. In fact, he's now the only top-seven selection from the 2023 MLB Draft who hasn't made his major league debut. You could even argue that, based purely on his all-around skill set, he's more MLB-ready than Rodriguez. It doesn't really matter, though, because just like Rodriguez, Jenkins is stuck in Triple-A despite continuing to prove he belongs at the next level. That's the roster crunch the Twins have created.

Again, none of this is meant to diminish what Larnach has accomplished this season. If anything, it's the opposite. He's played well enough to significantly increase his value, and he's cemented himself as a key piece of the team for the remainder of 2026. The problem is that the Twins already decided he wasn't part of their long-term plans.

They tried to trade him. When that deal fell through, they were left holding a player who now blocks the organization's next wave of outfield talent while simultaneously becoming harder to maximize in a future trade. Will Larnach help the Twins more than Jenkins or Rodriguez over the final two months of this season? Probably. But looking beyond 2026, the Twins may have backed themselves into a corner. They've got two elite outfield prospects knocking on the door, a veteran they already attempted to move, and fewer opportunities to maximize his trade value than they had just days ago.

The Twins were buyers at this year's trade deadline, and they made several moves to improve their pitching staff. Those additions could absolutely pay dividends down the stretch. Still, if we're looking back at everything Minnesota did (or didn't do) at the deadline, I'd argue their biggest mistake wasn't one of the trades they made; it was the one they couldn't finish. 

 

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[tony&rodney]

Trevor Larnach does not hit enough versus LH pitchers to be a full time player. His best position is DH. Despite working hard to improve his athleticism, speed, and defense Trevor remains a below average outfielder. Josh Bell is the DH and generally a more dangerous bat, although he doesn't hit LH pitching too hot either. What to do? Maybe the Twins will make an offer to Larnach for 2027 that is below what he would receive in arbitration. Trevor could return as a part time DH. His value is low but he produces for the Twins right now. Either way, the Twins cannot continue to play players who are substandard in the field. 

[PuckettPond]

I was expecting better results after his play @ Oregon state. What do the Twins do with him now? Curious why they never tried him @ 1st base. Time to turn the page.

[ashbury]

Worrying about his trade value is pointless.  If he had any, they would have pivoted to the next best offer of a reliever.  Instead they went with a totally different package for Hoffman.

[jorgenswest]

To me this is an irresponsible take by @Sam Caulder. Was their reporting to support this claim?

1 hour ago, Sam Caulder said:

The Twins made it abundantly clear leading up to the deadline that they intended to move Larnach

I went and rewatched Pohlad’s interview. He made it abundantly clear leading up to the deadline they needed to add relievers. In order to acquire that major league reliever the Astros were not looking for prospects. They were looking to add a valuable major league piece that happened to be Larnach. In no way is that an intention to move Larnach. It is an intention to add a major league reliever.

[TheLeviathan]

They aren't "stuck".  They probably bypassed dealing him at his peak value, but they aren't stuck.

There is a reckoning coming on what they do with the glut of "I'm an outfielder but you'd be dumb to play me there" guys on the roster right now.

[S Bart]

1 hour ago, PuckettPond said:

I was expecting better results after his play @ Oregon state. What do the Twins do with him now? Curious why they never tried him @ 1st base. Time to turn the page.

Well...they have tried so many attacks 1st...why not.

[MGX]

They can decide on Larnach next season for this season he is the primary LF. They can play Martin for him VS LHP. While Larnach is a below average defensive player (-3 Fielding run value in 644 Innings), his offensive production this season far outweighs anything his defense has cost the Twins.

Agree with @jorgenswest where did the Twins make it abundantly clear they were going to trade Larnach leading up to the deadline? At the deadline they wanted to add a quality reliever & we have to assume that Houston asked about Larnach in return.

[GNess]

The idea of blocking big time prospects like Jenkins and to a lesser extent due to multiple injury issues Rodriguez doesn't hold up. 

Currently, the Twins have Keaschall playing CF where he is a fish out of water despite his max effort approach, a revolving door in RF and Larnach holding LF vs RH pitchers or until he is replaced by pinch hitters vs LH relievers. Martin, Clemens and Kreidler appear now and again in the OF.

If Jenkins is the player and prospect he appears to be he is arguably the Twins 2nd best OF behind only Buxton from a pecking order perspective.  His potential alone would command playing time over most of this collection.

Culpepper was called up because he was performing at St Paul and was. clearly a better option than Gray or Kreidler, and he was inserted into the Twins' lineup.

Lack of talent, production at AAA, potential, apparent readiness and the group of players currently getting innings  for the Twins are not delaying Jenkins being called up.

It begs the question - what is?

 

 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, GNess said:

The idea of blocking big time prospects like Jenkins and to a lesser extent due to multiple injury issues Rodriguez doesn't hold up. 

Currently, the Twins have Keaschall playing CF where he is a fish out of water despite his max effort approach, a revolving door in RF and Larnach holding LF vs RH pitchers or until he is replaced by pinch hitters vs LH relievers. Martin, Clemens and Kreidler appear now and again in the OF.

If Jenkins is the player and prospect he appears to be he is arguably the Twins 2nd best OF behind only Buxton from a pecking order perspective.  His potential alone would command playing time over most of this collection.

Culpepper was called up because he was performing at St Paul and was. clearly a better option than Gray or Kreidler, and he was inserted into the Twins' lineup.

Lack of talent, production at AAA, potential, apparent readiness and the group of players currently getting innings  for the Twins are not delaying Jenkins being called up.

It begs the question - what is?

 

 

Delaying starting Jenkins service time clock is my guess.

[Road trip]

14 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Delaying starting Jenkins service time clock is my guess.

Plus, perhaps the coaches just don't think Jenkins is quite ready yet.  By no means is he dominating AAA... 

[Danchat]

29 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Delaying starting Jenkins service time clock is my guess.

9 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Plus, perhaps the coaches just don't think Jenkins is quite ready yet.  By no means is he dominating AAA... 

Culpepper wasn't dominating either and also didn't need to be added to the 40 man for another year, so why him and not Jenkins?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Larnach becomes the DH for next year.  

[Road trip]

6 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Culpepper wasn't dominating either and also didn't need to be added to the 40 man for another year, so why him and not Jenkins?

I don't know, of course, but I would speculate that Culpepper being 2 years older and having quite a bit more experience *might* be a factor.  For whatever reason he was deemed "ready", and for some reason Jenkins is not.

I certainly agree that nobody critical is blocking Jenkins, be it Roden, Martin, or somebody else.