Grading Every Trade from the Minnesota Twins' 2026 MLB Trade Deadline

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Kremer's HR rate and OPS-against this season amount to him making opposing batters the equivalent of Hunter Goodman.  Maybe the HR rate will revert, but he's always been a bit high relative to the league.  And I don't see an "unlucky" BABIP waiting to come back down in his favor.  His final two starts for the Orioles raised a big lump on his ERA, but his FIP just before those two games was already above 6 and those two games actually were a little unlucky as the season FIP hardly budged - when ERA and FIP disagree by this much I tend to split the difference (I realize some prefer FIP for predictive value) - I am thinking an ERA around 5 for the remainder of the season.

Maybe that quad injury flared up again, and Kremer won't be fully right until a full off-season of rest.  Or, I can hope, the 8 days between starts means that tonight's game will be the Dean Kremer of past seasons, serviceable workhorse.

Kremer's savant page still looks good.  The 3 HR/9  is statistically as likely to remain at that level as the Twins batting average was with RISP.   He could be injured,  He could be toast,  but then I would have thought the Savant page would be showing that.   Even still with Ryan having a dead arm its not like I am making a huge statement by saying he could be our 2nd best SP.  We will see.   

[Nashvilletwin]

4 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

There's more than one school of thought about how to contend. Some people believe that unless you can look at your team and see them as being one of the top 5 teams in baseball(others might push it a little further out for the range) then you're not a "contender" and should be looking to the next year at best and further out at worst.

Another school of thought says that any year that you can make it into the playoffs in baseball, you should try and do it, because with the impact of a short series and all the additional randomness that brings you want to get as many bites at the playoff apple as you can find.

If you buy into the first, then the twins should have sold off all their expiring vets this year and at least some of their highest value players who won't be here in 2028 and said goodnight to the season (absent a miracle run from maybe a bunch of prospects that could be called up to fill out the roster and audition for 2027).

If you're in on the second, then this trade deadline was a reasonable move to try and make it into the playoffs this season without hamstringing 2027 and beyond. They shored up their biggest weaknesses, they didn't move any of their top prospects, and the guys they did send out were either very marginal or likely far away from making an impact.

It sounds like to me your definition of "contending for WS title" is closer to a Bucket 1 approach...so yeah. This is a failure to you. Others will disagree?

They're also trying to sell baseball as a product in MN. A "trust the process" approach where they sell off assets again for a team that is functionally in the playoff hunt (regardless of what you think their chances of winning it all this year are or not, they have a legit chance to be in the playoffs this year, presuming they don't sh!t the bed in August) wrecks things for the rest of the season and probably torpedoes all lot of fan enthusiasm (and ticket sales) for next year too.

You're correct: none of these players will probably be with the Twins after '27, and it's unlikely Ryan and Jeffers will either. (Jeffers almost for sure, Ryan...getting a little more interesting with him tanking the second half AGAIN, but who knows) Of course, none of the players they sent out were all that likely to be with the Twins MLB club after 2027 either: Amick is a longshot, Klein is unimpressive and unlikely to improve much at this point, and all the others are far enough away that pretending they're on the twins by 2028 is just guessing.

Clearly, you were just out on this team going into the trade deadline. If you're someone that wants the Twins to make the playoffs as many time as possible, you're probably ok with these moves that add to those odds and don't substantively harm the team for next year (and potentially improve them)

Thank you for the response.  Truly.

I’m as pleased and excited as anyone about the success the team has had this season.  I watch every game and respect the effort and camaraderie exhibited by the players and coaches.

I disagree that all the players we gave away in the traded would never be on the Twins.  Think about how many times we could say that about current and former Twins who never looked like making it early in their minor league careers.

Ryan (from last year’s deadline through this year’s ASG) has been at peak trade value.  What we turned down for him last year from the Bosox  (a LH starter currently outperforming Ryan and a consensus top 7 SS prospect) isn’t even in the same zip code as to what we might get now.   Jeffers had to be at peak value this very week.  Now we are looking at best at a comp pick for him.

Just my opinion, but that is not good roster management for a small market franchise like the Twins who clearly are looking to create a true window (and justifiably so) in ‘28 post the impending lockout.

Yes, I’m skeptical that this team can make the playoffs this year. I’m even more skeptical that they will win a series.  Agree, not too much damage was done to our future from the trades (more damage was done by keeping Ryan and Jeffers).  But it will be fun to watch how the rest of the season unfolds.  I’m looking forward to it. Who knows given how well they have outperformed already, right?  It’s just not the cost-benefit conclusion I would’ve thought prudent unless there were other considerations involved.

Which leads to your very excellent point and the true crux of the matter.  TP, et al, bought some excellent goodwill from the media and the fans with these manoeuvres.  Surely that has some benefit to the overall franchise. A few more seats in chairs can’t hurt.  It may certainly, from a PR perspective, keep the hounds at bay, particularly if the team can stay in the race into the fall. Those things undoubtedly have value. But at what expense?

The moves (or lack thereof) were a calculated, but neither all-in or all-out risk.  But it cannot be said that the team’s prospects post ‘27 are now improved.  That is when the true opportunity to put a contender on the field begins. And for many of us fans, competing for a WS is really all that matters. If these trades or keeping Ryan and Jeffers prevent even one or two better starters from being on the team at that point, then the cost may not be worth it.

[weitz41]

It's hard for me to give a grade on the deadline moves without knowing if or how much of a 2027 season there will be...

With all or let's say 100+ games in 2027..B maybe B-

With no or less the 1/2 the games in 2027..C to D+

These includes what they may have gotten for Jeffers and Larnach.

Getting Money and another year of control with Kremer and Hoffman is big to me.

The Twin's window hasn't even opened yet. Next season if might.

[bean5302]

33 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

It's hard for me to give a grade on the deadline moves without knowing if or how much of a 2027 season there will be...

With all or let's say 100+ games in 2027..B maybe B-

With no or less the 1/2 the games in 2027..C to D+

These includes what they may have gotten for Jeffers and Larnach.

Getting Money and another year of control with Kremer and Hoffman is big to me.

The Twin's window hasn't even opened yet. Next season if might.

I don't think you can assume anything other than 2027 is played completely and the CBA has no changes. Owners might have a little more insight into things, but as regular folks on the street, not a clue.

In reality, I think the owners will break the union on the salary cap. The salary cap will also come with a salary floor and a 100% rev share because it has to. If that happens, the Twins can expect they'll need to expand payroll to $175MM+ next year and teams like the Dodgers will be forced to trade assets off. But will what I think will happen actually happen? No real idea.

[rv78]

Looked to me like Pohlad was trying to make it look like he was adding for the sake of winning, but in all reality, when you look at what he added, it was just more pretending to be a contender. Kremer isn't going to be an improvement over anyone that was already starting, his ERA proves that. Minter and Hoffman are additions that won't affect a game UNLESS the Twins have a lead going into the final innnings and they are available to pitch, which won't be every game, such is the life of a reliever. The overall effects of adding these 3 pitchers will be minimal and it won't be enough to matter. Grade D.

[bean5302]

Evaluating Kremer puts him solidly as a #5 ceiling, but a reliable #5. ERA doesn't matter much, but the advanced metrics don't paint a pretty picture.

xFIP and SIERA like him, but I don't find them particularly compelling.

xFIP doesn't know if a fly ball is a pop up, a warning track shot or an upper deck home run. Kremer doesn't generate a lot of pop ups. He's below league average, and that suggests his HR:FB rate will be probably worse than average.

SIERA does account for pop ups vs. regular fly balls, but it ignores line drives entirely and Kremer is giving up a lot of line drives this year. I guess, maybe, that'll trend back which will help his results?

I think he's just an adequate back of the rotation guy.

[DocBauer]

For purposes of this exercise, I'm excluding an ownership that blew the offseason with an old analogy of a monkey having sex with a football. I am focusing only on what took place.

***A caveat that team owner Tom Polad has already commented he expects to raise payroll for 2027. Take that for what it's worth at this point. But it does represent a comment or two from me

1] MINTER: I really liked his addition. It's doubtful Amick ever combines power with contact to be a ML regular. Right or wrong, I've just never been sold on Agbayani. I just don't see a single skill that makes him a top prospect. I grade this a B+ for Minter still being good, just not as good as he was. 

But, his velocity was 94-95 last time I saw him throw for the Twins. I seriously doubt he gets another 2yr $22M type of deal next offseason. Banda is under team control next season and probably doesn't get a major raise. If Minter is resigned, he and Banda offer up a hell of a good looking 1-2 punch from the LH side. Maybe 2yrs and $12-14M? That makes this an A grade.

2] HOFFMAN: He was an ideal target for me until I saw his contract. I was thrilled when they got him. He's very good, despite a rough April. Crap happens. His peripherals are excellent. They absorbed the rest of his contract this season, like Minter...which is something the Twins have never done much of previously...and get $ back to buy down his 2027 salary.

Klein is interesting because the Twins never gave him a chance to just throw 1 inning and see what you might have. But he's also NOT another Varland. The Pena kid is a low level flyer. I DIDN'T want to lose Hill for anything other than a controlable SP. His upside is too tantalizing to give up for anything more. So maybe we over paid POTENTIALLY. And this is NOT revelationally thinking, weren't we all, as Twins fans, more than a little concerned about his regression this season? He's averaging something like 8 BB per 9 IP. There's still a chance he rebounds, puts it all together, and we hate this trade 4 years from now.

But a lot can change 3-4 years from now. We have Hoffman for NOW, to see how 2026 finishes, and for 2027 where I think the Twins will be a better team overall. 

So I'm giving this trade an A for immediacy, and not downgrading for what MIGHT happen 3-4yrs from now. 

3] KREMER: IF Kremer, still only 30yo, and coming off an injury and still working his way back, is "fixable" in whatever way that matters, and suddenly looks like the pitcher he was from 2022 to 2025, the Twins got a potential steal here. For 5 seasons he was a solid, competent SP. Even his first few starts this season were solid. His last couple were horrible! 

Personally, I would have included Hill and Gonzalez/Wentz and another solid, lower prospect for a younger arm with control. Obviously, the Twins didn't see it that way. They were looking for a decent arm to make sure we could sustain the current level of TEAM performance, with a better bullpen, to continue winning series after series. This was also a baffle to allow Prielipp to monitor his IP, but maybe also to give Ryan a little time as well as off days play out. 

I don't hate Kremler's addition. I think those who look at his 2026 numbers and not not his career numbers will be the LOUD opponents to this trade. But if he settles down and pitches like most of his career, some might change their mindset. 

The fact that he's also controllable in 2027 also shouldn't be ignored. THIS season should prove you can never have enough depth.

Personally, BEFORE the Hoffman signing, I would have included Hill and another top 7-10 prospect to get a SP with control. The Twins didn't see that. And I understand why.

THEY are seeing what's on hand, and what's coming. THEY are sold Ryan will get his stuff together still. And THEY didn't want to sacrifice anything more for TOMORROW than they already did.

Reyes for Kremler could come back to haunt. Maybe. But if Kremler is suddenly the pitcher he's been for the previous 5yrs, we get someone who can help "rest" the rotation for 2026, but also possibly help the #5 spot in 2027.

I'm not a lover or hater of this trade. Objectively, he's a "C" addition. IF he suddenly throws like he did his previous 5 seasons, he's a B-. He helps this season only to eat IP, potentially.  But he also allows for another depth piece for 2027, potentially.