Walker Jenkins

[USAFChief]

20 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Just because Walker Jenkins has 1 good component of production doesn't mean his overall production, compared to other players in AAA's International League is actually good.

since July 1, even including his big game yesterday.
.284/.370/.444 OPS .814 wRC+ 111 (a little above league average).

He's not good relative to his peers.

There's a potential argument to be made that pitching is soooooooooo bad in AAA, there's only so much Jenkins can do. He's at his ceiling of production and his production won't drop off much from AAA to MLB because the skills he has directly translate. I would want to see high line drive rates or high average exit velocity or low pop up rates. None of that is true.
Jenkins has a relatively low line drive rate. He has a high pop up rate. He doesn't have impressive exit velocity. He's got very good plate discipline. That's what he's got. That's it. Game power is poor. Batted ball data is poor. 

Perhaps true. In fact I'd agree his production doesn't scream promote. 

But given what the Twins are getting from RF (and maybe Bell) I'd like to see Jenkins up and playing every day. 

Maybe he's a spark they need. Maybe not. At the least he's a good defender and I doubt will be overwhelmed. What's there to lose?

There's an unexpected glimmer of opportunity knocking here. Open the GD door.

[jorgenswest]

I have no idea of Jenkins can contribute. I do know that looking at slash stats and their related stats like wRC+ is not the source for an answer either way. There might be something to see in the swing level data.

@Mike Sixel points out Lombard Jr. and their slash stats are similar. Both can play key defensive positions. I think one difference can be found in the swing stats. Jenkins swings more and makes more contact. In particular he has a much higher contact rate outside of the zone. Lombard Jr.’s contact is in the zone. Walker and Lombard Jr both swing at pitches outside the zone about the same. Walker makes much more contact (60% to 39%).

Is that a good thing? That contact probably is not productive. We saw Jose Miranda and his ability to make contact in and out of the zone. Miranda didn’t figure it out. It probably would be better if Walker swung less. He makes such good contact. He can afford to be patient knowing he can foul off pitches as he gets two strikes. He needs to be able identify pitches in the zone he can attack. I think Lombard Jr is closer in that regard.

It is about approach for Walker. He needs to stop offering at pitches that lead to weak contact. Is that something he can do in the majors? Maybe. I look forward to seeing him in centerfield. 

[ashbury]

14 hours ago, Danchat said:

I understand the concept of why HRs are important, I don't need a lecture on it. It doesn't disprove my point that Jenkins' approach at the plate is being undersold, and also how I'd argue his AAA profile suggests he'd fare better at the plate in the majors than Sabato, despite the OPS difference and massive gap in HR hitting.

As some have mentioned, it could take some time for Jenkins' power to develop. How long do we leave him at AAA while we wait for this?

I'm sorry the tone was preachy.  Your take "relying too heavily on OPS and HRs" seemed misguided so I broke it down to basics.  Sabato isn't on my radar.

We want run-scoring.  Without HR power, Jenkins's game is incomplete.   Badly. 

How long do we wait?  A while.  If the power never develops, he's not the high first-round prospect we thought we were getting.  Will he develop power sooner by facing major-league arms?  I'm skeptical but could be persuaded by a AAA coach I suppose.

We could bring him up right now, but if we do we basically have a taller Alan Roden with a better arm.  I'm not happy to say that, and Jenkins has time on his side while Roden does not.  But I don't see the Twins being a better team for 2026 by promoting Walker Jenkins.  Having him outperform his AAA numbers seems wishful thinking.

 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

He's better than just about every one of his peers. He can and is hitting well, he's working counts at an elite level, he is a good defender, he has speed, he just doesn't have power. 

I want the power too, but that's not all MLB players have power and if you sit on him until it shows up when he's 26 then you're just wasting time.

In what world? What peers? Guys who will never take a plate appearance in the big show? Guys who should absolutely not be in the big show? I mean, sure, if you consider Minor League Roster Filler to be Jenkins' peers, then Walker Jenkins is better than most.

In the past 30 days, Walker Jenkins rank according to International League hitters who qualify with at least 57 plate appearances.
wRC+ = 69th of 136 = 49th percentile
OPS = 70th of 136 = 48th percentile
wOBA = 64th of 136 = 52nd percentile
BB Rate = 63rd of 136 = 54th percentile
K Rate = 39th of 136 = 71st percentile
BABIP = 51st of 136 = 62nd percentile (it's not luck he's pedestrian)
ISO = 90th of 136 = 33rd percentile
Spd = 59th of 136 = 56th percentile
wSB = 70th of 136 = 48th percentile
LD% = 67th of 136 = 50th percentile
GB% = 96th of 136 = 29th percentile
FB% = 92nd of 136 = 32nd percentile
Popup% = 90th of 136 = 33rd percentile
HR:FB% = 112th of 136 = 17th percentile

The only stat where he's meaningfully better than dead average is strikeout rate. 

[clone52]

19 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I need to see Buxton healthy before I worry about any of this.

But assuming he is, space isnt an issue. Gray is an obvious roster move, and Roden is an easy one too.

Finding ABs for hitters is pretty easy. The problem is finding hitters. If they do call up Jenkins, and Buxton is on the roster, Larnach can get ABs at DH. As can Buxton some days, for that matter. Keaschall isnt someone that needs to be in the lineup every day either.

And there's always the chance someone ELSE is injured.

Jenkins up and hitting would be a nice problem.

Not a guarantee he'll hit, of course.

If everyone is healthy and Jenkins is the only callup, I think you see this lineup a lot

vs. RHP
DH Larnach
CF Buxton
C Jeffers
1B Bell
2B Clemens
LF Keaschall
RF Jenkins
3B Lee
SS Kreidler

vs. LHP
CF Buxton
C Jeffers
1B Lewis
DH Bell
2B Clemens
LF Martin
RF Jenkins or Keaschall (whoever can hit lefties better)
3B Lee
SS Kreidler


 

[Danchat]

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

We could bring him up right now, but if we do we basically have Alan Roden with a better arm.

From what I've heard, Jenkins can play CF well enough and should certainly have more range than Roden (of whom the team hasn't trusted to play CF a single time in the majors this year) so it'd be more than just a better arm.

10 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Having him outperform his AAA numbers seems wishful thinking.

Y'know, I'm reminded of a past prospect of ours who was once called up from AAA after only hitting .660 OPS in his first 100 PAs there, some here thought the team was rushing him, but he ended up seizing a starting OF job and was a 2.5 WAR player his rookie year. That was Eddie Rosario.

Oh, and Luke Keaschall had a .710 OPS in his first 120 PAs at AAA before getting called up... and while these are two anecdotes and not proof of anything, Jenkins is definitely a better prospect than both of them.

17 minutes ago, ashbury said:

How long do we wait?  A while. 

And neither of the two I mentioned were hitting HRs, Rosario had only 12 HRs in over 600 PAs at AA before hitting just 3 at AAA... and by your strategy of being held at AAA for "a while", Rosario and Keaschall would never have helped the 2015 or 2025 teams. Keaschall may never hit for much power, but that might just be who he is - if that is what Jenkins is, why sit on him at AAA indefinitely (I interpret "a while" as several more months / indefinitely) rather than getting him acclimated at the MLB level and getting what you can from him?

I get this team not wanting to have Jenkins take his lumps while the team is [supposedly] in a pennant race and the whole other aspect of putting him on the 40 man roster early, but I don't find the strategy of "sit on your prospects indefinitely until they hit for power at AAA" to be convincing or productive for the team.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Perhaps true. In fact I'd agree his production doesn't scream promote. 

But given what the Twins are getting from RF (and maybe Bell) I'd like to see Jenkins up and playing every day. 

Maybe he's a spark they need. Maybe not. At the least he's a good defender and I doubt will be overwhelmed. What's there to lose?

There's an unexpected glimmer of opportunity knocking here. Open the GD door.

100%. I'm not advocating for him to come up and immediately be in the #3 hole for the next 10 years. But I do think his production AND defense AND speed would benefit the team. As he grows over the years, then I can also see his production improve.  

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

There's an unexpected glimmer of opportunity knocking here. Open the GD door.

Jenkins could solve the problem all by himself by kicking the door open.

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Jenkins could solve the problem all by himself by kicking the door open.

Indeed. And he definitely hasn't. 

Unless they're not calling up for reasons other than performance. 

I don't know that. But it possible. 

In any case, the offense needs a jolt. A two week hot streak from a phenom isn't unprecedented, and if it doesn't happen, I doubt he'd be worse.than Roden.

Edited Tuesday at 08:31 PM by USAFChief

[clone52]

With the Mariners releasing Mitch Garver, might not be a bad time to try and send Jackson down to AAA and see if syou can slip him past everyone

[LA Vikes Fan]

13 minutes ago, clone52 said:

With the Mariners releasing Mitch Garver, might not be a bad time to try and send Jackson down to AAA and see if syou can slip him past everyone

Sorry to see Garver get released. Always like him but a .175/.302/.294 (>506) line with poor defense will get you sent home. They also released Rob Refsnyder, who's been even worse. I saw the Twins activated Hoffmann What was the corresponding move(s)? 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Just now, LA Vikes Fan said:

Sorry to see Garver get released. Always like him but a .175/.302/.294 (>506) line with poor defense will get you sent home. They also released Rob Refsnyder, who's been even worse. I saw the Twins activated Hoffmann What was the corresponding move(s)? 

My bad, just saw that Rojas was sent to St. Paul. That makes sense, stretch him out as a starter. We are going to need at least one more and probably more than that in August and September. 

[mnfireman]

What I want to see out of Jenkins is consistency, if he can't be consistent in AAA, we shouldn't expect him to be so in MLB. His last 5 weeks of production look like this (from recent to oldest. Numbers courtesy of TD MiLB weekly reports).

.368/.478/.474 (.952 OPS)

.190/.227/.238 (.465 OPS)

.286/.412/.643 (1.055 OPS)

.313/.389/.438 (.826 OPS)

.350/.381/.650 (1.031 OPS)

I don't know what those slash lines combine for over the last 5 weeks, but there is (1) terrible week, (1) slightly above average week, and (3) elite weeks. If he would have put those elite weeks back-to-back-to-back I would be all for promoting him, but he fell off after each elite week, one very much dramatically so.

Lombardi and Clark were promoted because they strung 3 or 4 elite weeks in a row, with no drastic production drop-off mixed in.

[HarmonK03]

1 hour ago, clone52 said:

If everyone is healthy and Jenkins is the only callup, I think you see this lineup a lot

vs. RHP
DH Larnach
CF Buxton
C Jeffers
1B Bell
2B Clemens
LF Keaschall
RF Jenkins
3B Lee
SS Kreidler

vs. LHP
CF Buxton
C Jeffers
1B Lewis
DH Bell
2B Clemens
LF Martin
RF Jenkins or Keaschall (whoever can hit lefties better)
3B Lee
SS Kreidler


 

You would seriously play Bell in the field and sit Lewis as well.  That makes no sense, hopefully they have burned Bell's glove.

[clone52]

30 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

You would seriously play Bell in the field and sit Lewis as well.  That makes no sense, hopefully they have burned Bell's glove.

If you are looking for offense, Bell beats out Royce against eighties.  Giving up defense though.

[HarmonK03]

2 minutes ago, clone52 said:

If you are looking for offense, Bell beats out Royce against eighties.  Giving up defense though.

Any small difference is not made up by the lack of defense from Bell.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, mnfireman said:

What I want to see out of Jenkins is consistency, if he can't be consistent in AAA, we shouldn't expect him to be so in MLB. His last 5 weeks of production look like this (from recent to oldest. Numbers courtesy of TD MiLB weekly reports).

.368/.478/.474 (.952 OPS)

.190/.227/.238 (.465 OPS)

.286/.412/.643 (1.055 OPS)

.313/.389/.438 (.826 OPS)

.350/.381/.650 (1.031 OPS)

I don't know what those slash lines combine for over the last 5 weeks, but there is (1) terrible week, (1) slightly above average week, and (3) elite weeks. If he would have put those elite weeks back-to-back-to-back I would be all for promoting him, but he fell off after each elite week, one very much dramatically so.

Lombardi and Clark were promoted because they strung 3 or 4 elite weeks in a row, with no drastic production drop-off mixed in.

Weeks are meaningless small sample sized. 

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, Danchat said:

From what I've heard, Jenkins can play CF well enough and should certainly have more range than Roden (of whom the team hasn't trusted to play CF a single time in the majors this year) so it'd be more than just a better arm.

Y'know, I'm reminded of a past prospect of ours who was once called up from AAA after only hitting .660 OPS in his first 100 PAs there, some here thought the team was rushing him, but he ended up seizing a starting OF job and was a 2.5 WAR player his rookie year. That was Eddie Rosario.

Oh, and Luke Keaschall had a .710 OPS in his first 120 PAs at AAA before getting called up... and while these are two anecdotes and not proof of anything, Jenkins is definitely a better prospect than both of them.

And neither of the two I mentioned were hitting HRs, Rosario had only 12 HRs in over 600 PAs at AA before hitting just 3 at AAA... and by your strategy of being held at AAA for "a while", Rosario and Keaschall would never have helped the 2015 or 2025 teams. Keaschall may never hit for much power, but that might just be who he is - if that is what Jenkins is, why sit on him at AAA indefinitely (I interpret "a while" as several more months / indefinitely) rather than getting him acclimated at the MLB level and getting what you can from him?

I get this team not wanting to have Jenkins take his lumps while the team is [supposedly] in a pennant race and the whole other aspect of putting him on the 40 man roster early, but I don't find the strategy of "sit on your prospects indefinitely until they hit for power at AAA" to be convincing or productive for the team.

I'll say again, my reason for responding was to challenge the notion of "relying too heavily on OPS and HRs".

If the coaches want to bring him up, fine.  Any roster with 3 catchers for fear of losing one via DFA, and that carries Tristan Gray, can be improved on.

[tony&rodney]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Just because Walker Jenkins has 1 good component of production doesn't mean his overall production, compared to other players in AAA's International League is actually good.

since July 1, even including his big game yesterday.
.284/.370/.444 OPS .814 wRC+ 111 (a little above league average).

He's not good relative to his peers.

There's a potential argument to be made that pitching is soooooooooo bad in AAA, there's only so much Jenkins can do. He's at his ceiling of production and his production won't drop off much from AAA to MLB because the skills he has directly translate. I would want to see high line drive rates or high average exit velocity or low pop up rates. None of that is true.
Jenkins has a relatively low line drive rate. He has a high pop up rate. He doesn't have impressive exit velocity. He's got very good plate discipline. That's what he's got. That's it. Game power is poor. Batted ball data is poor. 

You are doing your thing again. You make these pronouncements on players when you have never seen them play. Looking at stats will just weaken your eyes and obscure whatever you are trying to accomplish. Did you watch the Saints game tonight? Did you watch Wichita? How about Cedar Rapids. Ft. Myers? They all have prospects playing and you can either watch the games or look at the stats. I'm not sure why you want to question a top prospect like Jenkins, but you do and when you say he is the same as every other AAA player, you lose all credibility. I don't get why you choose to attack certain players or prospects but at least watch them play a little bit.

[Vanimal46]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

Jenkins could solve the problem all by himself by kicking the door open.

How about after his game today for St Paul? Has he started his kicking motion yet?

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

How about after his game today for St Paul? Has he started his kicking motion yet?

Walker had three Mauer base hits, which will irritate the h out of some people. Two hard ground ball singles and a slashing double down the left field line.

[ashbury]

6 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

How about after his game today for St Paul? Has he started his kicking motion yet?

Someone says home runs are overrated and somehow I'm now on Team I Hate Walker Jenkins?

Bring him up. Or don't. I'm not salty either way.

[Vanimal46]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Walker had three Mauer base hits, which will irritate the h out of some people. Two hard ground ball singles and a slashing double down the left field line.

The 3 true outcome fans are in shambles. 

[Vanimal46]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Someone says home runs are overrated and somehow I'm now on Team I Hate Walker Jenkins?

Bring him up. Or don't. I'm not salty either way.

Not after your multiple paragraph posts earlier today. Own it my friend. 

[ashbury]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The 3 true outcome fans are in shambles. 

Why?  He strikes out hardly at all, by present-day standards.  He walks plenty.  That's a lot to build on.

[Vanimal46]

Just now, ashbury said:

Why?  He strikes out hardly at all, by present-day standards.  He walks plenty.  That's a lot to build on.

Yet his lack of power by your standards holds you back from calling him up... Maybe he should sell out for the HR to gain your faith?

[ashbury]

Just now, Vanimal46 said:

Not after your multiple paragraph posts earlier today. Own it my friend. 

Terse posts. Rest of day. Make you feel better.

[ashbury]

11 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Maybe he should sell out for the HR to gain your faith?

No.

[ashbury]

40 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

How about after his game today for St Paul? Has he started his kicking motion yet?

I'm convinced. Bring him up. Alan Roden, who I never cared about, missed his brief window of opportunity.

[Vanimal46]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I'm convinced. Bring him up. Alan Roden, who I never cared about, missed his brief window of opportunity.

You've just taken a baptism into the Church of Walker Jenkins. Welcome aboard!