Twins Daily's Top-20 Prospects Gets a Post-Draft Shakeup

[D.C Twins]

Houston above Rodriguez all day....

[Steve Lein]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

Add me to those who believe Wachsmann is to low, way to low.  The Twins just told us what they think about him, when they paid him $1,200,000 over slot. 

TD doesn't have all the dollars posted yet, but it sure seems like we may see something I don't recall the Twins ever doing, going over their pool of dollars.  You are reporting all the players have signed without dollars for four of the top 11.  You show they have $1,382,000 remaining, yet, the slots for the four players yet to report bonuses is around $1,800,000.  Maybe they will end up right around budget, but to do so someone is going to have to come in real cheap. 

They won't go over their pool of dollars, at least not into the territory where any penalty happens. They are one of the teams that never has. Multiple selections toward the end of the bonus pool rounds were made to save money so they could fit in Wachsmann's number.

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Houston and Quick over ERod - at least the first two have a chance to be major leaguers….with the Twins at least.

Wouldn't be surprised if ERod is traded over the next week.

He had surgery 7 weeks ago. Can he even be traded?

[amjgt]

7 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

They won't go over their pool of dollars, at least not into the territory where any penalty happens. They are one of the teams that never has. Multiple selections toward the end of the bonus pool rounds were made to save money so they could fit in Wachsmann's number.

Not to belabor the frustration of not maxing out the bonus pool all the way to where the penalties switch from financial to draft penalties, but it's just so short sighted.

You've got a mechanism that gives you a long term ROI of 2.5x (I'm making up numbers here) and every year you're told how much you can spend and get that 2.5x return. Then they say... "well, we'll let you spend a bit more, but you can only get a 1.75x long term return on that investment" and the Twins are always just.... "nah, we're good"

 

[Fatbat]

14 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

They won't go over their pool of dollars, at least not into the territory where any penalty happens. They are one of the teams that never has. Multiple selections toward the end of the bonus pool rounds were made to save money so they could fit in Wachsmann's number.

Isnt there about $100k wiggle room? If, then $350k isn’t that much to short 4/5 guys….

[Mike Sixel]

Which player saw the largest drop in projected WAR for the 2027 season during the first half of the season?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Eduardo Tait

[amjgt]

4 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Isnt there about $100k wiggle room? If, then $350k isn’t that much to short 4/5 guys….

5% overage is allowed, but there is a 75% tax on all of those dollars spent, 

So, the Twins could've spent around $850k above their pool money on draft picks, but it would have cost them and additional $640k to do so.

Going beyond the 5% puts you into draft pick penalties which a) is crazy, and b) no team has ever done.

[Fatbat]

32 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

Houston above Rodriguez all day....

Houston is a solid #4

[Fatbat]

20 minutes ago, amjgt said:

5% overage is allowed, but there is a 75% tax on all of those dollars spent, 

So, the Twins could've spent around $850k above their pool money on draft picks, but it would have cost them and additional $640k to do so.

Going beyond the 5% puts you into draft pick penalties which a) is crazy, and b) no team has ever done.

Good info! Im sure that when all the contracts are disclosed, the penalties will be minimal!!

[bean5302]

Most of the ranking falls within reason to me. Except Emma (who I wouldn't have in the top 10). Gabriel Gonzalez is probably not a top 20 prospect and Young is a non-prospect (not top 40), IMHO.

[DataNerd]

57 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Isnt there about $100k wiggle room? If, then $350k isn’t that much to short 4/5 guys….

Its 5%, so ~800k if the Twins were to max it.  Less than a third of teams fully max out their overage.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

I might be the only one but I'd have Lackey at number 1.  He looks like the better runner.  The stronger arm. At least as much power as Jenkins and will play arguably the most important position on the field. I think if just based on projection the ceiling is a bit higher on Lackey IMO.

Still there are a lot of things in Jenkins favor.  He is the same age as lackey and already at AAA and doing well there.  Even at such a young age he has a balanced batting line at the highest level in the minors. Jenkin's looks like the stronger bat moving forward and being young for the level and having the kind of success he is having bodes well for star potential.  There's a lot to like.  The order is just preference at this point as they are so close.  The nice thing is we have two or three top 50 players in the system right now.

I agree with the rankings for the most part except for Soto.  I was so excited when they picked him. Now I have concerns his arm\shoulder will never hold up.  I think until healthy again I'd drop him further down the list.  Everything else looks good to me with Tait in danger of dropping with the poor plate discipline. Right now he is young for the level and barely holding his own.  Hopefully he can make more improvements.

It's a really nice system but won't be top 10 for long as guys will be graduating if not in 2026 for sure in 2027.  

I wouldn't put Lackey ahead of Jenkins yet, because, as you say, Jenkins is doing it in AAA already. But I have those 2 on a separate tier from everyone else. Emma is in his own world because the injuries are just so numerous it's hard to judge him at all. But, for me, it's Tier 1- Jenkins/Lackey, Tier 2- Culpepper, then everyone else.

[chpettit19]

For those who care, Keith Law just released his updated top 70. The Twins on the list are:

19. Jenkins
20. Lackey
31. Emma
53. Culpepper