The Hitters Who've Gotten the Twins Here Are, Paradoxically, the Ones Getting in the Way

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

If I'm in charge, I'm trying to extend Jeffers for 3 or 4 years. That would give enough time to figure out if Lackey, Tait, or Diaw are legit and make their way up to the ML roster. 

If an extension happens, Im trading Caratini. 

If an extension does not happen, then unfortunately I think Jeffers gets traded. The team could extend a QO but that number is something like 8M higher than the highest paid C right now. Not the route a "low budget" team like the Twins would normally take. 

Whatever happens, a catcher needs to be traded. Im keeping Jackson. 

Bell is known to start slow and heats up as the season goes on. He's done just that. IF he continues to perform like he has, you wont get enough back in a trade to replace what he's currently providing. 

Larnach. I was ready to trade him all off-season. I was ready to trade him the beginning of the year. It had been a disappointing career to that point with poor defense and an average bat. Now what do you do with him? He's still not good in the OF. But that bat has FINALLY shown up how we were hoping it would all along. Is it real? He's not shown this kind of production long term yet. Theres such a logjam in the OF. Any of the guys waiting in AAA can easily outperform him defensively. But no guarantee the bat will even match the production. If you can get a good return for him, like a very good BP guy with a year or 2 of control left and find a team that needs a DH, you might have to do it. Clear the logjam a bit. Its really the only path to clear space for all the OFs in AAA waiting. Buxton isn't going anywhere and neither is Keaschall. He may have found a home in RF. 

The other option would be to trade some of them. But that would a disappointing outcome since we haven't got to see most of them yet. If we aren't going to give guys like Fedko and Sabato a real opportunity, maybe trade them and see if they'll get a chance somewhere. There a lot of guys at AAA that are ready for a chance in the majors with nothing left to prove. I think any one of them can outperform Gray. But they still dont get an opportunity. 

Im for a mix of buying and selling. We need a shotdown closer and atleast 1 more very good to great BP guy. 1 more top end starter would help give the team a more legitimate shot to compete if they make the playoffs. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

Moving Buxton to DH weakens the team defense and that is a no go for me. 

2023 cured me of thinking DH is of much use for him anyway.  He gets hurt doing baseball things, and defense seems less than half of the total risk.  If he's not capable of playing defense on a given day, I don't want him batting either.

[JD-TWINS]

58 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

I get you want a larger payroll but you still have to operate within the resources given.  Other GM's have been able to do it for other organizations.  Last offseason there was at least $14m available to spend, but there were no dollars spent on the bullpen, an area of obvious need.  The money instead went to Bell to be the starting first baseman and Caratini as the backup catcher after they had signed Jackson for the same role.  At the time those signings were questionable at best.  You have to believe that Zoll was a part of the decision making process and Falvey didn't make these signings in a vacuum. In fact Falvey has talked a lot that Zoll was very involved in and leading a lot of the trade discussions.  I have seen nothing that tells me he is going to operate differently than Falvey and I think we need more experience leading the baseball operations.  Especially to keep Tom P. on track, a good executive knows how to manage upward.

1) $14M to spend is hardly granting “flexibility”.

2) I get other Teams have had success for years while spending at a low rate…… Tampa & Milwaukee are great examples & obvious. To me, the difference is that in those organizations they have made a COMMITMENT to operate that way. I do not think for a minute that in ‘23 or ‘24 not in ‘25 when Team was put up for sale, that the FO thought the budget for ‘26 was going to be $105M.

3) Caratini & Bell were both signed with the expectation experience & a performance floor. Also, they were both signed to play a fair amount of 1B. Caratini as an effective Switch hitting PH. Jeffers hurt - Caratini only catches over next 65 games. Bell isn’t sharp at 1st (as anticipated) and Clemen’s experiment was working at 1B.

4) As you are aware, Bell has been excellent with RISP ……. had a terrible stretch through May……. & has had around .970 OPS for last 5-6 weeks combined. Caratini had a terrible May but he had the 4th highest OPS in the League,  in June.

Caratini & Bell, IMO, were standard signings in rounding out the Club. Caratini, on a 2 year deal brought some stability going forward, without Jeffers. The problem is there should have been at least $15-$20M more $$ available for relief pitchers, etc. …………. $125M payroll would hardly be in the Top 20 teams in spending.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

I can understand either path and perhaps their play in the next couple weeks will make it clear. For me, I would sell. Making the wildcard would be great fun but chances are they won’t make it and even if they do it’s just not a club that is going to advance. If they do some shrewd selling at the deadline we could be looking  at an up and coming team that has a window of contention for the next several years. My fear is Tom P will mandate going for it at the expense of adding pieces via trade that could push us over the top. 

In 2024, the Tigers were 52-57 on July 31. Sold their veterans and ended the season at 86-76 and earned a wild card spot with a young team. Won 87 games last year. Got destroyed by injuries to start this year, but are making a run now.

That is the picture I have in my head for the Twins. Do some selling of veterans on a below .500 team, add young talent to the roster, and tell them to go get themselves a playoff birth. I also expect Tom P to mandate them "going for it," and I very much worry it's going to hurt them down the road and completely undermine his goal.

[Andy MacPhail]

Jeffers is having a great season & he's gone next season, Larnach is having a pretty good season, but his defense is still not that good, so place him at DH. Do we then trade Bell? I don't think we can get anything for him. IMO, we can trade Jeffers & Larnach to any competing team that have a surplus of MLB high-leverage RPs yet have a greater need for a catcher & or LH hitting cOFer right now. IMO, that'll improve greatly our chances of making the post season. If by some reason, we falter we can still sell that RP for a greater deal or if he's young enough keep him for next season.

[HerbieFan]

This season has been a lot of fun after such low expectations.  I just want them to commit to one or the other:

1) get a couple pieces to help this year.  If you can get to a best of three series with Ryan and Taj in the first two games you have a punchers chance.

2) commit to 2027 and beyond.  If that's the case then Jeffers, Larnach and Bell all get dealt.

[1985Fan]

Two steps first to determine which direction to go at the deadline. First, let’s see how they get through the tough road trip and schedule after the break. They’ll either prove they can compete against good teams or play themselves out of contention. Second, they should be exploring trades now to gauge what returns they can get and if that actually improves the team. If trading Larnach or Jeffers improves the pen or rotation this season and beyond, then go for it. It does seem like trading either position can be filled adequately from within. A trade for short term (rentals) is not ok and shouldn’t be done. Another thing to keep in mind is that prospects are not going to jump up and fill the void on a contending team. They usually struggle after initial short term success. If they’re in contention trading current contributors to make room for AAA guys is not smart. Basing decisions on theoretical trade returns is not smart. Thats why they are hopefully exploring the market now and should know what returns are for each player. 
I’m ok with either direction. 

[Cris E]

14 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

This season has been a lot of fun after such low expectations.  I just want them to commit to one or the other:

1) get a couple pieces to help this year.  If you can get to a best of three series with Ryan and Taj in the first two games you have a punchers chance.

2) commit to 2027 and beyond.  If that's the case then Jeffers, Larnach and Bell all get dealt.

These are not necessarily in conflict.  They can get a couple pieces to help this year AND trade Larnach and Jeffers and maybe Martin and a prospect to do so. If they pick up some controllable arms that can help in the pen and the kids that come up can replace some of the lost production it could be a blast.  No guarantees of course, but this team is already out-performing in some ways and under-performing in others, so all you can do is place your bets and play the games. 

 

EDIT: I guess I can drop this here as well as anywhere:
 - Trading Jeffers is not as obvious a slam-dunk as some think. If they keep him and then he leaves via free agency they'll get a Competitive Balance pick * after the first or second round (depending on how big his contract ends up being) which is a pretty darn good prospect.

(* Subject to CBA renegotiations, of course.)

- Grey will pass through waivers like something through a goose. There is nothing to worry about there, and even if he leaves I care not about the fate of a tiny bat utility guy vs the roster flexibility we'd gain at this point in the season. He's a nice-to-have in terms of platoon, but his SS defense is meh and we're past the point in the season where needing a long-term SS cover is required. If it isn't Kreidler then Culpepper is ready and if it isn't him the season is burned down and we're on to prospect play.

 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Czelgert said:

Keep Larnach.  He’s a veteran presence on the team that takes quality ABs more often than not.  I feel like most posters didn’t want Larnach on the team before the season and haven’t changed that attitude regardless of his play on the field.  We need to be realistic about Larnach will fetch which would likely be low level prospects.  In a wide open AL I’d rather keep the steady presence he brings even if it means he walks after the season.  My thoughts might be different if he could bring a haul but that’s not going to happen,  

It is a veteran team. I'm not sure your point? Larnach is top 10 in LF fWAR, and controlled for more years, and you think he won't fetch anything of value? If he won't fetch anything of value, why keep him?

I'd DFA Bell (or trade him), and move Larnach to DH. I'd promote Jenkins (they won't, no way). 

I'm on team "plan for '27 and beyond", but I don't think the Twins are. They'll lose Jeffers for nothing, they'll learn nothing about any young players (keaschell and, um?). 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

If I'm in charge, I'm trying to extend Jeffers for 3 or 4 years. That would give enough time to figure out if Lackey, Tait, or Diaw are legit and make their way up to the ML roster. 

If an extension happens, Im trading Caratini. 

If an extension does not happen, then unfortunately I think Jeffers gets traded. The team could extend a QO but that number is something like 8M higher than the highest paid C right now. Not the route a "low budget" team like the Twins would normally take. 

Whatever happens, a catcher needs to be traded. Im keeping Jackson. 

Bell is known to start slow and heats up as the season goes on. He's done just that. IF he continues to perform like he has, you wont get enough back in a trade to replace what he's currently providing. 

Larnach. I was ready to trade him all off-season. I was ready to trade him the beginning of the year. It had been a disappointing career to that point with poor defense and an average bat. Now what do you do with him? He's still not good in the OF. But that bat has FINALLY shown up how we were hoping it would all along. Is it real? He's not shown this kind of production long term yet. Theres such a logjam in the OF. Any of the guys waiting in AAA can easily outperform him defensively. But no guarantee the bat will even match the production. If you can get a good return for him, like a very good BP guy with a year or 2 of control left and find a team that needs a DH, you might have to do it. Clear the logjam a bit. Its really the only path to clear space for all the OFs in AAA waiting. Buxton isn't going anywhere and neither is Keaschall. He may have found a home in RF. 

The other option would be to trade some of them. But that would a disappointing outcome since we haven't got to see most of them yet. If we aren't going to give guys like Fedko and Sabato a real opportunity, maybe trade them and see if they'll get a chance somewhere. There a lot of guys at AAA that are ready for a chance in the majors with nothing left to prove. I think any one of them can outperform Gray. But they still dont get an opportunity. 

Im for a mix of buying and selling. We need a shotdown closer and atleast 1 more very good to great BP guy. 1 more top end starter would help give the team a more legitimate shot to compete if they make the playoffs. 

Larnach is completely outhitting Bell, whey not move him to DH?

All in all, great post!

[HarmonK03]

40 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

1) $14M to spend is hardly granting “flexibility”.

2) I get other Teams have had success for years while spending at a low rate…… Tampa & Milwaukee are great examples & obvious. To me, the difference is that in those organizations they have made a COMMITMENT to operate that way. I do not think for a minute that in ‘23 or ‘24 not in ‘25 when Team was put up for sale, that the FO thought the budget for ‘26 was going to be $105M.

3) Caratini & Bell were both signed with the expectation experience & a performance floor. Also, they were both signed to play a fair amount of 1B. Caratini as an effective Switch hitting PH. Jeffers hurt - Caratini only catches over next 65 games. Bell isn’t sharp at 1st (as anticipated) and Clemen’s experiment was working at 1B.

4) As you are aware, Bell has been excellent with RISP ……. had a terrible stretch through May……. & has had around .970 OPS for last 5-6 weeks combined. Caratini had a terrible May but he had the 4th highest OPS in the League,  in June.

Caratini & Bell, IMO, were standard signings in rounding out the Club. Caratini, on a 2 year deal brought some stability going forward, without Jeffers. The problem is there should have been at least $15-$20M more $$ available for relief pitchers, etc. …………. $125M payroll would hardly be in the Top 20 teams in spending.

1. My point was how Falvey chose to spend money, he did not spend what he had on an obvious need.  He stated at the time of the signing that Bell was signed to be the starting first baseman.  I am sorry but no other team would have gone into the season counting on Bell to be playing 1B.  I am looking at the time the signings were made not today.  

2. You can throw any amount out there you want for payroll but Falvey was not a low level employee, his job was to present plans to ownership of how to build winning teams.  Other than when the budget was reduced at what seemed to be more last minute, he needed to anticipate and pivot.  He knew the team was losing a major source of revenue but still advocated to sign Correa.  If he thought payroll was going to continue to increase and planned for it, than he was not the person for the job to begin with.  He took a swing and could not put the players needed around Correa for a winning team.  Falvey was not good at his job and has put this team in a very tough spot.  

3. Where ownership failed the front office in my opinion was not resolving the leadership issue last October as soon as the season ended.  Not resolving it by late November did make it harder for the front office to plan,  Businesses go thru uncertainty all the time, it it the job of leadership to plan accordingly  But again we know he had at least $14m to spend and he watched all the top relievers be signed by other teams, that is undeniable.  The bullpen needed to be the top priority.  We have no way to know how Falvey would have any additional dollars he may have been allocated.  But based on history, he has never given the bullpen priority over other areas.  He has always thought he could build a bullpen internally and on the fly.

[TheLeviathan]

The 2023 Vikings were a 7-10 football team that missed the playoffs.  At the time of the NFL trade deadline they were 4-4 and on a three game winning streak.  They also lost Kirk Cousins for the season the Sunday before the deadline.  The Vikings were a game out of a playoff spot trailing the 5-3 Seahawks.  

What did that Vikings team do?  Traded Ezra Cleveland for a 6th and added Josh Dobbs.  They chose not to deal Danielle Hunter, Jordan Hicks, DJ Wonnom, KJ Osborn.  After an offseason where they also refused to deal Cousins.

This is the Twins now.  A middling team who is pretending they have a chance while assets wither on the vine that could be used to help the future.  Josh Bell will contribute ZERO next year and is actively blocking the developmental process of guys like Roden.  Jeffers isn't coming back.  Larnach isn't a long-term guy.

Get value for these dudes and build around that spicy rotation we're building next year.

[ashbury]

Jeffers: Echoing pretty much the consensus here, he's probably the catcher to trade.  His defense has never been stellar and the cost to keep a player entering his decline is too steep compared to other uses for that money.

Larnach: He's a paradox and a dilemma.  The Twins currently have no fewer than 10 outfielders on their 40-man roster (the Twins 40-man page somehow has Keaschall and Kreidler swapped) and yet somehow we seem short and Larnach feels indispensable all of a sudden.  Is Alan Roden really a replacement for Larnach?  The Twins remain with a question mark about him instead of answers, a year after acquiring him.  Here's the tie-breaker for me: Larnach's numbers at the plate are better this year, but his batting average on balls in play is at a career high (especially against RHP), so if he comes back to earth on that axis then he's basically the same batter we've seen the past several years.  And his defense, while usually unimportant, remains a small negative.  I would trade him at the deadline, grit my teeth, and hope Roden will develop that final step into being a full-time starter, which the team's scouts must have said was possible given that they accepted him in trade.  I don't have huge expectations from Roden but his slightly better defense probably balances slightly lower offense, and he's under cheap team control for longer.  It depends as always on the return in trade, as I have no interest in getting a 25-year old glove-first SS currently at AA.

Bell: I don't know if we'd get much in return for him.  He's on a good run and that could evaporate but I'm inclined to hang on to him.

Go for it or build for 2027?  2023 is my evidence that even a modestly talented squad can do the franchise a lot of good - that series against Toronto was tons of fun and should not be downplayed.   I think it's possible to do both (go for it without mortgaging the future) but a good deal of wheeling and dealing at the deadline will be involved.  You can;'t trade Larnach or Jeffers to a contending team and expect MLB-ready pieces in return for our own contention efforts, so they need to be traded for excellent prospects, and then attention be turned to bottom-feeder teams who would like prospects in return for their few useful pieces.  I've probably played too much OOTP and it colors my perception, but prospects are the essence of "fungible assets" and should be used to smooth out the process of acquiring your eventual pool of major league talent.  E.g. Roden should probably have been traded last off-season as part of a package for acquiring solid bullpen help, for example, once the Twins committed to Larnach another season. It's this big-picture issue of either committing to talent or else moving them in trade that is one of my biggest gripes with this FO - they acquired a guy like Roden and then let him die on the vine (injury this season being an extenuating factor).  

[twinstalker]

5 hours ago, SarasotaBill said:

Trade Jeffers, Larnach, and Bell.

Keep Ryan and try to extend him.

Is it worth it to trade Larnach and Bell for something that, realistically will never help or an amount that can easily be made up other ways rather than see if they can help this year?  I'm not saying yes or no, but that would seem to be the dilemma.

As far as extending Ryan, that's fine in a world where the Twins can spend whatever they want.  In a realistic world, it's probably best to trade Ryan at his (likely peak) current value before he has his normal late-season letdown and before an injury.  Is it so important to make the postseason that you risk missing out on the great return he can bring?  I don't know the answer, except that he absolutely needs to be traded now, this offseason, or (third place by far) next trade deadline.