Opening Day Roster Predictions

[stringer bell]

Only five days until Opening Day and the Twins have tipped their hand on most of the Opening Day roster by releasing Urshela, Chafin and Hendriks. There are still several positions to be decided with no room on the 40-man roster. The Il will be used at least for Festa and Adams and perhaps Martin. What are your guesses for the 26-man roster on 3/26? Bonus if you show your work on the 40-man roster. Here's my current best guess:

Pitchers (13)--Rotation--Ryan, Bradley, Ober, Abel, Woods Richardson. Bullpen--Rogers, Banda, Funderburk, Sands, Topa, Orze, Kent, Altavilla. IL: Festa and Adams. Catchers (2)--Jeffers, Caratini. Infield--(6)--Bell, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Arcia, Clemens. Outfield--(5)--Wallner, Buxton, Outman, Martin, Larnach. 

I've included two non-roster players (Altavilla & Arcia), so two 40-man moves would need to be made. One would be Alex Jackson DFA or trade and the other would be a 60-day IL stint for Festa. Matt Bowman might beat out Kent or Altavilla for a bullpen spot. I picked Arcia over Kreidler, because Arcia didn't get released yesterday. Wagaman makes the team if Martin can't go, but Martin was doing baseball activities two days ago, so he should be ready. I'm guessing the Twins give Outman a little more runway before they move on from him, which means Roden gets sent to St. Paul despite a really good ST. 

[SD happy]

As of today, I think you’re pretty much spot on. I do think we will see a couple new names in the next few days, either by waiver pickups or a trade. I think we will see at least one new name in the bullpen. I think we will have a new name as backup infielder, simply because Kriedler and/or Arcia are simply not good options. I would really like to give Roden a chance to be on the 26 man roster.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Only five days until Opening Day and the Twins have tipped their hand on most of the Opening Day roster by releasing Urshela, Chafin and Hendriks. There are still several positions to be decided with no room on the 40-man roster. The Il will be used at least for Festa and Adams and perhaps Martin. What are your guesses for the 26-man roster on 3/26? Bonus if you show your work on the 40-man roster. Here's my current best guess:

Pitchers (13)--Rotation--Ryan, Bradley, Ober, Abel, Woods Richardson. Bullpen--Rogers, Banda, Funderburk, Sands, Topa, Orze, Kent, Altavilla. IL: Festa and Adams. Catchers (2)--Jeffers, Caratini. Infield--(6)--Bell, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Arcia, Clemens. Outfield--(5)--Wallner, Buxton, Outman, Martin, Larnach. 

I've included two non-roster players (Altavilla & Arcia), so two 40-man moves would need to be made. One would be Alex Jackson DFA or trade and the other would be a 60-day IL stint for Festa. Matt Bowman might beat out Kent or Altavilla for a bullpen spot. I picked Arcia over Kreidler, because Arcia didn't get released yesterday. Wagaman makes the team if Martin can't go, but Martin was doing baseball activities two days ago, so he should be ready. I'm guessing the Twins give Outman a little more runway before they move on from him, which means Roden gets sent to St. Paul despite a really good ST. 

I hate that outfield so much. 

[Danchat]

If Martin is going to miss time with the concussion, methinks Roden is taking his place. 

[jaimedude]

3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Only five days until Opening Day and the Twins have tipped their hand on most of the Opening Day roster by releasing Urshela, Chafin and Hendriks. There are still several positions to be decided with no room on the 40-man roster. The Il will be used at least for Festa and Adams and perhaps Martin. What are your guesses for the 26-man roster on 3/26? Bonus if you show your work on the 40-man roster. Here's my current best guess:

Pitchers (13)--Rotation--Ryan, Bradley, Ober, Abel, Woods Richardson. Bullpen--Rogers, Banda, Funderburk, Sands, Topa, Orze, Kent, Altavilla. IL: Festa and Adams. Catchers (2)--Jeffers, Caratini. Infield--(6)--Bell, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Arcia, Clemens. Outfield--(5)--Wallner, Buxton, Outman, Martin, Larnach. 

I've included two non-roster players (Altavilla & Arcia), so two 40-man moves would need to be made. One would be Alex Jackson DFA or trade and the other would be a 60-day IL stint for Festa. Matt Bowman might beat out Kent or Altavilla for a bullpen spot. I picked Arcia over Kreidler, because Arcia didn't get released yesterday. Wagaman makes the team if Martin can't go, but Martin was doing baseball activities two days ago, so he should be ready. I'm guessing the Twins give Outman a little more runway before they move on from him, which means Roden gets sent to St. Paul despite a really good ST. 

Nah you have to keep Roden over Outman, that or trade Larnach. . 

[stringer bell]

2 minutes ago, jaimedude said:

Nah you have to keep Roden over Outman. 

I agree, but I think the Twins think there is something more than Outman has produced since his rookie year. 

[stringer bell]

Altavilla hasn't been impressive since returning from the WBC. I wonder if serving up a homer to Chandler Simpson might seal his fate.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Altavilla hasn't been impressive since returning from the WBC. I wonder if serving up a homer to Chandler Simpson might seal his fate.

Wow, not a great look 

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, jaimedude said:

Nah you have to keep Roden over Outman, that or trade Larnach. . 

Both.

[strumdatjag]

2 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Both.

Yep.  Keep Outman AND Roden (unless Mothra and Godzilla are available).   Maybe we can get the proverbial bucket of balls for Larnach. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Altavilla hasn't been impressive since returning from the WBC. I wonder if serving up a homer to Chandler Simpson might seal his fate.

This year's edition is shaping up as the team that finds a different way to lose each game.  Chandler Simpson not only hit 0 homers for the Rays last season, but has hit only 1 of them in 1197 minor league Plate Appearances; try and find that way of losing on your bingo card.

26 players on the regular season roster; 25 spots on a standard bingo card.  I'm thinking only Buxton or Ryan might be exempt - Austin Martin by way of contrast strikes me as the Free space in the center of the card, as he's bound to find some wacky way of confounding expectations at some critical point in a game.

[stringer bell]

Matthew Leach is reporting that Austin Martin will be playing in a game tomorrow. I think that unless there's a setback, he won't go on the Concussion IL.

[lecroy24fan]

I don't think Altavilla makes the team. I think there's one name that hasn't been mentioned that's getting that spot, Cody Lawyerson.

[lecroy24fan]

Also for those of you who thought Funderburk was on the bubble all of camp:

 

 

[stringer bell]

So backup infielder and relief pitcher slots are left to be filled. I don't know if the staff was impressed with Bowman today, but he has an opt-out that will activate if he doesn't make the team.

Adams and Festa will go to the IL, Wagaman, Arcia (non-roster), Gray and Kreidler for one infield spot and Altavilla (non-roster), Bowman (non-roster), Laweryson (non-roster), and Kent for two RH reliever spots. Jackson will come off the 40-man if he doesn't make the team, other 40-man spaces are more murky.

[lecroy24fan]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

So backup infielder and relief pitcher slots are left to be filled. I don't know if the staff was impressed with Bowman today, but he has an opt-out that will activate if he doesn't make the team.

Adams and Festa will go to the IL, Wagaman, Arcia (non-roster), Gray and Kreidler for one infield spot and Altavilla (non-roster), Bowman (non-roster), Laweryson (non-roster), and Kent for two RH reliever spots. Jackson will come off the 40-man if he doesn't make the team, other 40-man spaces are more murky.

Pablo to the 60 day IL is one.

[ashbury]

34 minutes ago, lecroy24fan said:

Pablo to the 60 day IL is one.

Already is.  The 60-day comes back into play around the time pitchers and catchers report, give or take.  The Twins official roster already reflects his removal.  https://www.mlb.com/twins/roster/40-man

I believe new assignments to the 60-day can be retroactive to that first day of camp in February, if the injury legitimately dates back to then and they've just been monitoring hoping for improvement.  Festa could be such an example, though I'm not sure.  It puts a player on track to return to action around mid-April, rather than a full 60 days after the start of the season.

Unless rules have changed or I simply misunderstood, either of which is possible.

[stringer bell]

12 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Already is.  The 60-day comes back into play around the time pitchers and catchers report, give or take.  The Twins official roster already reflects his removal.  https://www.mlb.com/twins/roster/40-man

I believe new assignments to the 60-day can be retroactive to that first day of camp in February, if the injury legitimately dates back to then and they've just been monitoring hoping for improvement.  Festa could be such an example, though I'm not sure.  It puts a player on track to return to action around mid-April, rather than a full 60 days after the start of the season.

Unless rules have changed or I simply misunderstood, either of which is possible.

You're right about Pablo, but I don't believe you can backdate 60-day IL assignments. If Festa does go that list, he'd have to be out until the end of May.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I don't believe you can backdate 60-day IL assignments. If Festa does go that list, he'd have to be out until the end of May.

I believe you're right. I must have been thinking of cases where a 10-day list guy was transferred to the 60-day and the days so far would count against the 60.  But if the player wasn't on the 10-day then probably retroactive isn't allowed, and in any case the retroactive portion couldn't be nearly as long as all of Spring Training.

I'll trust Zoll and crew to know these rules backward and forward.

[stringer bell]

On 3/22/2026 at 6:39 PM, stringer bell said:

So backup infielder and relief pitcher slots are left to be filled. I don't know if the staff was impressed with Bowman today, but he has an opt-out that will activate if he doesn't make the team.

Adams and Festa will go to the IL, Wagaman, Arcia (non-roster), Gray and Kreidler for one infield spot and Altavilla (non-roster), Bowman (non-roster), Laweryson (non-roster), and Kent for two RH reliever spots. Jackson will come off the 40-man if he doesn't make the team, other 40-man spaces are more murky.

The “final” is in. Laweryson gets the last BP spot and will take Alex Jackson’s 40-man roster spot. Tristan Gray is the utility infielder. Both results surprise me. 
 

Big picture—not a single 30-something veteran made the club after signing a minor league contract. Arcia is apparently still around as are Merryweather and Altavilla. I would expect the veteran relievers to get a chance at some point. Also, only Jackson will be exposed and I think there is a decent chance that he stays in the system. 

[jorgenswest]

Congratulations to Tristan Gray! After years of hard work he is on an opening day roster. In the last 10 years he has played with 14 teams including a stop in Perth, Australia. Make the most of it Tristan.