The Pohlads Set Derek Falvey Up To Fail

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, rv78 said:

And yet the Twins have gotten worse. Your rose colored glasses have some manure on them.

The manure is everywhere on this thread. 

[old nurse]

If Falvey was set up for failure in the manner suggested it would be also fair to say Falvey isn’t very bright and did not deserve the job in the first place. 

[Otaknam]

“There was never an indication that he didn’t want to field a great team,”. An odd comment by the writer. ALL GMs, managers, coaches and players want to field a great team. 

[bunsen82]

13 hours ago, rv78 said:

And yet the Twins have gotten worse. Your rose colored glasses have some manure on them.

I merely was showing the facts.   There can always be valid arguments 1 ways or another.   1 of them should not be the trades that Falvey did.  Now part of that is because he generally until this past deadline,  had very high expectations for trades,  effectively he wanted to win each trade.  

If you disagree or forgot that Falvey traded for Lopez, Ryan, Duran, Gabriel Gonzalez and Sonny Gray I guess thats one thing.  Say what you will, He needed Lewis to become an all-star or a star, he took a big swing on him and so far has missed.  His 22-25 drafts look extremely strong.  They have gotten effectively zero from the international market for several years.  

For me there are 2 issues,  1 is international drafts.  2 is needed a bit more from the drafts 2017-2019, Some of the issue is we continued to supplement the teams early on through trades from a relatively week minor league system.  Overall though most of those trades have worked out. 

I still think we should have continued the rebuild,  sold of Ryan.  See if Lopez can show health and #1 pitcher form this spring,  then trade him as well.  I am fine holding onto Jeffers to manage the bullpen.    

[killercarewoliva]

22 hours ago, rv78 said:

Sorry, I don't feel sorry for Falvey. He made a multitude of moves to numerous to mention that he had complete control over that he just completely whiffed on. Even his last 2 significant moves in spending $7M each on Josh Bell and Victor Caratini show his inept way of spending the available payroll he has at his disposal. Neither Bell or Caratini move the needle to a higher level. They only solidify a floor that maintains the status quo of mediocrity. Had the total of their 2 salaries, $14M, been given to just one, much better player, who was capable of significant improvement at even just 1 position it makes the team BETTER. The only problem of going with that avenue of spending is that Falvey has also shown with Correa and Gallo that he wasn't capable of spending bigger dollars wisely either. Blame the Pohlads if you wish, but Falvey failed in a lot of ways that weren't the Pohlads fault.

Very well said. they gave up a pretty good AAA guy for a catcher. Jackson who I understand doesn't hit very well and now they don't even need him.

[DJL44]

58 minutes ago, killercarewoliva said:

Very well said. they gave up a pretty good AAA guy for a catcher. Jackson who I understand doesn't hit very well and now they don't even need him.

Every GM should always trade a "pretty good AAA guy" for an actual major leaguer.

[weitz41]

20 hours ago, USAFChief said:

10x better?

In what ways?

 

After further review...

2x better is closer to fair. Way deeper farm, A good starting pitching staff and 11 less losses the last season. 

[KirbyDome89]

20 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

1. Sonny Gray 8 WAR and Debarge   -   Traded away Petty

2. Lopez 8.1 WAR  -   Traded Arraez  6.8 WAR  -  Lopez is a much more valuable asset currently

3. Joe Ryan 8.3 War -   Traded Cruz  .4 WAR

4. Duran  7.4 WAR,  Tait and Abel  -  Escobar  (Enough said)  

5.  Topa and Gonzalez   for Polanco 1.3 WAR .   (This trade is definitely trending towards the twins)

The only real negative trade I can think of is the Pressly trade.  But most of that value came in additional signed contracts.   The other 2 would be Cano for Lopez,  and then Mahle for Steer and CES.   

I honestly think of all the things Falvey did,  trading was by far his strong suit.  

2017: nothing of serious note

2018: Duran and Odo were good trades. Jake Cave for Luis Gil, the Pressly swap, and letting Dozier die on the vine were the opposite.

2019: nothing of serious note

2020: Normally I'd take impact > duration but I think the Maeda trade is a push. That COVID season was 60 games, I mean Martin Perez would've been a CYA candidate at one point if we only looked at his best two months with the Twins. Outside of that 11 game stretch Kenta was injured or just not that good. 

2021: Ryan is the feather in Falvey's cap; hands down the best trade he made. The Berrios swap? Eh... 

2022: Gray is a W barring a Petty bounce back. Lopez imploded. Mahle was a disaster. Pagan and Paddack were bad.

2023: Lopez for Arraez worked out better for the Twins, at least to date. 

2024: You need to include DeSclafani in that swap. A cash strapped team burning $4M or $5M on a SP hurts. In general, Topa + an unusable SP for Polanco isn't a W. You can love Gonzalez all you want, but he hasn't done a single thing at the MLB level yet. Falvey traded for Margot that same offseason as well. 

2025: TBD

3 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

I merely was showing the facts.   There can always be valid arguments 1 ways or another.   1 of them should not be the trades that Falvey did.  Now part of that is because he generally until this past deadline,  had very high expectations for trades,  effectively he wanted to win each trade.  

If you disagree or forgot that Falvey traded for Lopez, Ryan, Duran, Gabriel Gonzalez and Sonny Gray I guess thats one thing.  Say what you will, He needed Lewis to become an all-star or a star, he took a big swing on him and so far has missed.  His 22-25 drafts look extremely strong.  They have gotten effectively zero from the international market for several years.  

For me there are 2 issues,  1 is international drafts.  2 is needed a bit more from the drafts 2017-2019, Some of the issue is we continued to supplement the teams early on through trades from a relatively week minor league system.  Overall though most of those trades have worked out. 

I still think we should have continued the rebuild,  sold of Ryan.  See if Lopez can show health and #1 pitcher form this spring,  then trade him as well.  I am fine holding onto Jeffers to manage the bullpen.    

I'd say survival bias and the fact that Ryan and Lopez are amongst the only above average players left on this team are coloring our view of the past. 

[Whitey333]

Both ownership and Falvey are to blame for the current  blight of the Twins.  My question or concern is that now that we have zoll budgeting payroll, is ownership going to cut payroll more?  With a scaled back budget i wouldn't be surprised if some or all of Lopez, Ryan, Jeffers, and Buxton are traded.

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

With a scaled back budget i wouldn't be surprised if some or all of Lopez, Ryan, Jeffers, and Buxton are traded.

I'd conservatively put it at 70% of TD's readership want some or all of those 4 traded. 

[Chembry]

4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Both ownership and Falvey are to blame for the current  blight of the Twins.  My question or concern is that now that we have zoll budgeting payroll, is ownership going to cut payroll more?  With a scaled back budget i wouldn't be surprised if some or all of Lopez, Ryan, Jeffers, and Buxton are traded.

Ownership has indicated there is still more room in the budget to add and Zoll is looking to do so.

This article was from Monday, after Falvey’s departure:

https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/jeremy-zoll-still-looking-to-improve-twins-roster

[Major League Ready]

On 2/4/2026 at 7:57 PM, rv78 said:

And yet the Twins have gotten worse. Your rose colored glasses have some manure on them.

Are you really suggesting the Twins got worse as a result of the trades @bunsen82listed or were there other reasons they didn't get better.  If we apply just a little bit of objectivity, I think you could say Falvey did pretty well in trades overall, but those trades were not enough to cover for the lack of success in drafting and developing.  His FA signings were also a mixed bag and a team with a modest budget needs to get exceptional production out of their FA signings.

[bunsen82]

18 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

2017: nothing of serious note

2018: Duran and Odo were good trades. Jake Cave for Luis Gil, the Pressly swap, and letting Dozier die on the vine were the opposite.

2019: nothing of serious note

2020: Normally I'd take impact > duration but I think the Maeda trade is a push. That COVID season was 60 games, I mean Martin Perez would've been a CYA candidate at one point if we only looked at his best two months with the Twins. Outside of that 11 game stretch Kenta was injured or just not that good. 

2021: Ryan is the feather in Falvey's cap; hands down the best trade he made. The Berrios swap? Eh... 

2022: Gray is a W barring a Petty bounce back. Lopez imploded. Mahle was a disaster. Pagan and Paddack were bad.

2023: Lopez for Arraez worked out better for the Twins, at least to date. 

2024: You need to include DeSclafani in that swap. A cash strapped team burning $4M or $5M on a SP hurts. In general, Topa + an unusable SP for Polanco isn't a W. You can love Gonzalez all you want, but he hasn't done a single thing at the MLB level yet. Falvey traded for Margot that same offseason as well. 

2025: TBD

I'd say survival bias and the fact that Ryan and Lopez are amongst the only above average players left on this team are coloring our view of the past. 

Odorizzi   5.1 WAR

Duran  7.4 WAR  (traded with 2.4 yrs of control)  

Ryan 8.3 WAR (2 yrs of control)  

Lopez  6 WAR (extension was for 25-27)

Gray  8 WAR

Topa .6 

Pagan 1 WAR 

Maeda 3.1

SWR 4  (4 years remaining)   

Jorge Lopez -.1

Prospects -  Gonzalez, Bowen, Debarge, Tait, Abel,  Martin (not really prospect but remaining years)

Total - 43.6  WAR

 

Gil 5.1 WAR 

Berrios  1.5  (signed extension for future years)

Rogers -.6

Arraez 6.8

Steer  5.1   

Graterol 3.5

Polanco   1.3  (1 year)

Cruz .4  

Pressley 3.0 (signed extension)  

Ynoa 1.1

Cano  2.5 WAR (remaining years)

 

Total -  29.7 WAR   

Traded prospects - Miller (could have been picked up rule 5), Petty, Povich 

 

In summary the Twins are plus 13.9 surplus value  on the trades that have been completed.   The tree that continues is 2 yrs of Ryan remaining and 4 years of SWR and Martin  and then the prospects of Gonzalez, Bowen, Debarge, Tait and Abel.  There is 4 high upside prospects.   Petty and Povich and  remaining years on Steer and CES are really the only players of note remaining in other systems.    Nothing is coloring my bias,  trades were a significant boon for the Twins from the Falvey era and will continue to be an asset moving forward.  

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Odorizzi   5.1 WAR

Duran  7.4 WAR  (traded with 2.4 yrs of control)  

Ryan 8.3 WAR (2 yrs of control)  

Lopez  6 WAR (extension was for 25-27)

Gray  8 WAR

Topa .6 

Pagan 1 WAR 

Maeda 3.1

SWR 4  (4 years remaining)   

Jorge Lopez -.1

Prospects -  Gonzalez, Bowen, Debarge, Tait, Abel,  Martin (not really prospect but remaining years)

Total - 43.6  WAR

 

Gil 5.1 WAR 

Berrios  1.5  (signed extension for future years)

Rogers -.6

Arraez 6.8

Steer  5.1   

Graterol 3.5

Polanco   1.3  (1 year)

Cruz .4  

Pressley 3.0 (signed extension)  

Ynoa 1.1

Cano  2.5 WAR (remaining years)

 

Total -  29.7 WAR   

Traded prospects - Miller (could have been picked up rule 5), Petty, Povich 

 

In summary the Twins are plus 13.9 surplus value  on the trades that have been completed.   The tree that continues is 2 yrs of Ryan remaining and 4 years of SWR and Martin  and then the prospects of Gonzalez, Bowen, Debarge, Tait and Abel.  There is 4 high upside prospects.   Petty and Povich and  remaining years on Steer and CES are really the only players of note remaining in other systems.    Nothing is coloring my bias,  trades were a significant boon for the Twins from the Falvey era and will continue to be an asset moving forward.  

Counting only WAR loses the plot when you're moving guys with limited control or swapping established players for prospects and vice versa. Did you get the better players and is the return moving the needle? 

The Mahle swap wasn't a disaster because Spencer Steer produced more WAR while being an overall meh 1B. It hurt because the Twins desperately needed a SP and Mahle immediately fell apart. Spencer Steer can rack up all the WAR he wants over whatever amount of time before FA, it doesn't matter. Ditto for the Berrios swap. SWR spent time in AAA last year, and Austin Martin is a fringe bench guy at best. Berrios has clearly been the best player in that swap. Maybe Martin gets enough playing time and SWR holds onto a rotation spot long enough to beat Berrios' WAR this season, it doesn't matter, the rotation took a hit and you've spent at least one, if not two, roster spots to downgrade. Idc about "losing," Brent Rooker or Noah MIller, but I do care about Pagan blowing games while the 2022 season tanked, and Margot being atrocious but still getting 400 PAs while 2024 season tanked. 

 

[bunsen82]

58 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Counting only WAR loses the plot when you're moving guys with limited control or swapping established players for prospects and vice versa. Did you get the better players and is the return moving the needle? 

The Mahle swap wasn't a disaster because Spencer Steer produced more WAR while being an overall meh 1B. It hurt because the Twins desperately needed a SP and Mahle immediately fell apart. Spencer Steer can rack up all the WAR he wants over whatever amount of time before FA, it doesn't matter. Ditto for the Berrios swap. SWR spent time in AAA last year, and Austin Martin is a fringe bench guy at best. Berrios has clearly been the best player in that swap. Maybe Martin gets enough playing time and SWR holds onto a rotation spot long enough to beat Berrios' WAR this season, it doesn't matter, the rotation took a hit and you've spent at least one, if not two, roster spots to downgrade. Idc about "losing," Brent Rooker or Noah MIller, but I do care about Pagan blowing games while the 2022 season tanked, and Margot being atrocious but still getting 400 PAs while 2024 season tanked. 

 

?????? 

I really don't understand your point at all.  How else do you measure than effectively WAR.  As to the Berrios trade,  he has been solid,  but I think dollar to donuts for the contract being paid 27 out of 30 GM's take SWR over Berrios straight up.  Martin - may have the same value as a Castro did for us,  and maybe he finds a new level - effectively what he was expected to do.  1-2 WAR from Martin a Year and 2+ War from SWR each year is a significant trade win for the Twins.  

If you are basing this on a handful of losses by Pagan and an extra roster spot currently,  for 2 pretty effective MLB players in SWR and Martin -  this really isn't a viable argument anymore.   We have found the best player in multiple trades that have moved the needle in (Ryan, Lopez, Odorizzi, Gray)  (We have some significant prospects that will be effecting the roster as well). 

As I stated initially - there are many things that one can dislike how Falvey ran a team - some were of his own doing, some were by restrictions by owners.  Trading by any metric was not 1 area that I think you can really critique him on.  We still haven't seen a significant addition to the bullpen  for no half measures Tom.   If he wants to win you have to invest.   

[KirbyDome89]

20 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

?????? 

I really don't understand your point at all.  How else do you measure than effectively WAR.  As to the Berrios trade,  he has been solid,  but I think dollar to donuts for the contract being paid 27 out of 30 GM's take SWR over Berrios straight up.  Martin - may have the same value as a Castro did for us,  and maybe he finds a new level - effectively what he was expected to do.  1-2 WAR from Martin a Year and 2+ War from SWR each year is a significant trade win for the Twins.  

If you are basing this on a handful of losses by Pagan and an extra roster spot currently,  for 2 pretty effective MLB players in SWR and Martin -  this really isn't a viable argument anymore.   We have found the best player in multiple trades that have moved the needle in (Ryan, Lopez, Odorizzi, Gray)  (We have some significant prospects that will be effecting the roster as well). 

As I stated initially - there are many things that one can dislike how Falvey ran a team - some were of his own doing, some were by restrictions by owners.  We still haven't seen a significant addition to the bullpen  for no half measures Tom.   If he wants to win you have to invest.   

Would you trade me a 6 WAR player for a group of players worth 2,2,2, and 1 WAR? You're getting the better deal by WAR right? The counting game ignores roster implications and the impact of the players involved. One season of MVP caliber performance is worth more than 5 seasons of 1.5 WAR even if the latter wins the battle in terms of WAR. A (at worst) solid, middle rotation SP is worth more than a fringe back end guy and a replacement level bench player. 

SWR might not last the year in the Twins rotation. I very much doubt that nearly every GM in the league, especially those who are actually trying to win games, would take him over Berrios. The AAV is irrelevant. The Twins refusing to pay Berrios doesn't provide them with a handicap. 

By your own system, the Lopez/Arraez trade was a net loss for the Twins. I disagree, but Idk why you're using Pablo as an example of finding the best player. 

[bunsen82]

18 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Would you trade me a 6 WAR player for a group of players worth 2,2,2, and 1 WAR? You're getting the better deal by WAR right? The counting game ignores roster implications and the impact of the players involved. One season of MVP caliber performance is worth more than 5 seasons of 1.5 WAR even if the latter wins the battle in terms of WAR. A (at worst) solid, middle rotation SP is worth more than a fringe back end guy and a replacement level bench player. 

SWR might not last the year in the Twins rotation. I very much doubt that nearly every GM in the league, especially those who are actually trying to win games, would take him over Berrios. The AAV is irrelevant. The Twins refusing to pay Berrios doesn't provide them with a handicap. 

By your own system, the Lopez/Arraez trade was a net loss for the Twins. I disagree, but Idk why you're using Pablo as an example of finding the best player. 

Other than Arraez  one blow out year with the Marlins the Twins players have had higher WAR players acquired on a yearly basis.   As to the Pablo deal, no its not a net loss,  on a WAR basis maybe, but you signed to an extension, had you not you would have gotten an additional player as a comp pick like we will now.  Arraez netted nothing.   So in my math I utilize WAR - I ignored additional years of control, but then add in prospects traded for or acquired via compensation picks.    You are arguing a losing position.  Just stop.   

[KirbyDome89]

On 2/7/2026 at 9:05 AM, bunsen82 said:

Other than Arraez  one blow out year with the Marlins the Twins players have had higher WAR players acquired on a yearly basis.   As to the Pablo deal, no its not a net loss,  on a WAR basis maybe, but you signed to an extension, had you not you would have gotten an additional player as a comp pick like we will now.  Arraez netted nothing.   So in my math I utilize WAR - I ignored additional years of control, but then add in prospects traded for or acquired via compensation picks.    You are arguing a losing position.  Just stop.   

You literally just said WAR is the only effective way to measure these trades, and now you're going outside of it...

My stance hasn't changed, but you're right, it's a losing position if you insist on moving the goalposts. 

 

[bunsen82]

18 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You literally just said WAR is the only effective way to measure these trades, and now you're going outside of it...

My stance hasn't changed, but you're right, it's a losing position if you insist on moving the goalposts. 

 

WAR - and additional players - it doesn't violate my math.   Even so on a WAR basis (as of today) its close to a breakeven.  If this is the hill you are dying on you got problems.  

[KirbyDome89]

On 2/9/2026 at 6:42 AM, bunsen82 said:

WAR - and additional players - it doesn't violate my math.   Even so on a WAR basis (as of today) its close to a breakeven.  If this is the hill you are dying on you got problems.  

Well yeah, your math keeps expanding. Now you're assigning major league value to comp picks and using "close enough," to close the WAR gap after I pointed out the inconsistency with Pablo. 

[bunsen82]

11 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Well yeah, your math keeps expanding. Now you're assigning major league value to comp picks and using "close enough," to close the WAR gap after I pointed out the inconsistency with Pablo. 

You still don't have a cogent argument that he wasn't good at trading players.  I bring WAR into the equation.  You state that doesn't work.  Then you state need to get the best player in the trade.  Thats what the Twins did in the majority of the trades.   Just acknowledge he had some good trades and move on.  On a strictly WAR basis yes the Pablo trade was basically a wash. There is some additional value that may or may not be extracted.  Fair enough?  The Arraez tree has ended.  

[KirbyDome89]

9 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

You still don't have a cogent argument that he wasn't good at trading players.  I bring WAR into the equation.  You state that doesn't work.  Then you state need to get the best player in the trade.  Thats what the Twins did in the majority of the trades.  Just acknowledge he had some good trades and move on.  On a strictly WAR basis yes the Pablo trade was basically a wash. There is some additional value that may or may not be extracted.  Fair enough?  The Arraez tree has ended.  

My pushback was directed at YOUR assertion that trading was Falvey's strong suit and the method you used to support that position. I think it's a mixed bag, and I said as much in my initial post (where good trades were acknowledged btw) when I went over what I'd consider difference making acquisitions year by year. Idk how much more cogency you need. 

I was clear about the issue I see with ignoring context and counting WAR on both sides of the ledger to declare a winner, and like clockwork, you highlighted exactly what I was talking about with the Pablo/Arraez swap. Go look at that list of swaps again, it's at best a push, so no, the Twins weren't getting the better player "in the majority of trades." You've gone from moving the goalposts to straight up fabricating arguments now.