Did Derek Falvey Complete the Twins Pitching Pipeline?

[Cris E]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Taj Bradley & Mick Abel stopped appearing on lists after their Age 22 season...

Taj Bradley was in the majors after that. 

[TJSweens]

4 hours ago, Cris E said:

Bonkers. You measure the outcomes from all sources because people don't develop on schedules and injuries happen when they happen and you still need to field a team year after year. There's no trophy for best minor league pitching pipeline except among the prospect hounds, and no one cares about it anyway.  Quick, without looking it up, who had the best minor league pitching pipeline in 2022?  2012?  

Pointless rationalization. Of course you need outcomes from all sources. I credited Falvey for acquiring pitching. My point is when you go outside the organization, you give up assets. 

And don't give me this development schedule bs. It's been 9 years and the only starter they produced is Bailey Ober, who is a mid rotation guy at best. 

What teams had the best pipeline in a given year couldn't be more irrelevant. The subject is the Twins pipeline over the last 9 years and it isn't good. That's why we had a fire sale to bring in more pitching prospects, while home grown prospects have stalled.

[Cris E]

Name an organization that produces enough of their own starters to meet your definition of successful. You  get Cleveland, but after that the closest I can find is PIT or possibly SEA.Go through the rest of baseball and let me know who the third might be.  The ultimate models that everyone says we should be following, MIL and TAM, are constantly churning pitching prospects to keep the roster full of talent. It's what well-run programs do.

EDIT: It's worth pointing out that the Twins are just like those three squads in other respects, in that they've had trouble assembling enough offense and three of the four have had sporadic playoff appearances with little success.

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

As you pointed out Cody, "pipelines" rarely have a linear progression, making them easy to evaluate.  Are there more talented pitchers in the Twins organization NOW than before Derek Falvey arrived.  Absolutely.  But there has been little to hang your hat on from a "development" standpoint in the rotation.

Ryan, Lopez, Gray...all traded for.  Guys like Bradley, Mick Abel, Rojas...all traded for and still developing.  Matthews, SWR, Festa, Prielipp, Dasan Hill, Charley Soto...all still developing.  What the Falvey era WAS able to do quite effectively, was identify SP prospects who, for whatever reason, health, limited pitch repertoire, stamina, were deemed not going to cut it as a SP and who became excellent bullpen arms, led by Duran and Jax and most recently, Varland. 

The most successful low revenue teams have acquired half of the pitching as prospects.  While I think it's note worthy to differentiate so that we can judge their drafting, I don't think it makes sense to suggest their effort to build a pipeline is somehow diminished because they didn't draft them all.  If you go back a few years, Cleveland's had years where half or more of their best pitchers were acquired as prospects.  In 2017, they had 8 pitchers that produced 1.5 WAR , five of them were acquired as prospects on one was drafted.

Corey Kluber         AaP
Carlos Carrasco    AaP
Trevor Bauer         AaP
Andrew Miller       Trade for established player
Danny Salazar       Intl
Mike Clevinger      AaP
Josh Tomlin          Drafted
Bryan Shaw          AaP

The 2025 Brewers had 6 pitchers with 1.5 WAR and four of them were acquired as prospects.

The 99 win 2023 Rays had a staff that was mostly acquired as prospects.  That team only had 3 pitchers with more than 1.5 WAR but they had a bunch of guys in the pen that contributed.  Among their top 10 pitcher by WAR, eight of them were acquired as prospects.

Zach Eflin                   FA

Tyler Glasnow           AaP

Shane McClanahan   Drafted

Drew Rasmussen      AaP

Shawn Armstrong    AaP

Pete Fairbanks          AaP

Kevin Kelly                 AaP

Robert Stephenson   AaP

Zack Littell                 AaP

Colin Poche                AaP

 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Andrew Morris didn't make top 100 because he's never been highly regarded as a prospect. Zebby DID make Top 100 lists. 

One of the reasons Morris didn't make those lists is based on age and "projection". Zebby made Baseball America's Top 100 once, pre-2025 after rocketing up the minors (3 levels in one season) in 2024 at age 24. B-Ref doesn't have him on any other prospect rankings (though I'm sure there's more than a few they don't pick up, like ESPN) Festa was picked for the Futures game, so clearly someone thought he was a highly regarded prospect, but wasn't landing on lists either.

There's always bias against older players in prospect lists and as long as the Twins continue to focus more on college pitchers in the draft, they're going to be less represented on these lists. it's just reality.

[Twinsrtheworst]

TD’ers love the term pipeline.  Sorry, just a funny observation.

[Rigby]

7 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

 the current administration better not clog the pipeline back up.

I would suggest they stay away from Taco Bell's Cheesy Dipping Burritos.....

[Linus]

31 minutes ago, se7799 said:

TD’ers love the term pipeline.  Sorry, just a funny observation.

Yep I’m thinking it is being used on purpose by the writers as it never fails to get a reaction, even though nobody really knows precisely what it is 😀

[big dog]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The 99 win 2023 Rays had a staff that was mostly acquired as prospects. 

Zach Eflin                   FA

Tyler Glasnow           AaP

Shane McClanahan   Drafted

Drew Rasmussen      AaP

Shawn Armstrong    AaP

Pete Fairbanks          AaP

Kevin Kelly                 AaP

Robert Stephenson   AaP

Zack Littell                 AaP

Colin Poche                AaP

 

To be fair, when Zack Littell was acquired from Boston Tampa Bay became his fourth major league team. He was in his age-27 year and appeared in about 175 major league games. Not exactly a prospect.

Are these people we should consider prospects? If so, then some of the Twins names previously discarded as too old should definitely qualify.

Rasmussen had appeared in 27 games over two seasons with Milwaukee and was 25.  

Shawn Armstrong was 32, on his second go-round with TB, and had appeared in over 150 games before his first time with TB.

Fairbanks only had 39 games in the majors before TB acquired him in 2019, but he was 25 years old.

Kelly similarly came up as a 25-yr-old rookie in 2023.

Stephenson was acquired by TB in 2023 at age 30, with over 230 ML games.

Poche did come up as a rookie and after missing two years with an injury finally played a role at age 28.

So I respect Tampa Bay for finding pitchers and making them perform better, but not many of these guys were acquired as true prospects as others are defining them. They were mostly other team's prospects who had flamed out (or in Littell's case, flamed the manager on the mound) and they were able to get more out of them.

 

 

 

[Western SD Fan]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The most successful low revenue teams have acquired half of the pitching as prospects.  While I think it's note worthy to differentiate so that we can judge their drafting, I don't think it makes sense to suggest their effort to build a pipeline is somehow diminished because they didn't draft them all.  If you go back a few years, Cleveland's had years where half or more of their best pitchers were acquired as prospects.  In 2017, they had 8 pitchers that produced 1.5 WAR , five of them were acquired as prospects on one was drafted.

Corey Kluber         AaP
Carlos Carrasco    AaP
Trevor Bauer         AaP
Andrew Miller       Trade for established player
Danny Salazar       Intl
Mike Clevinger      AaP
Josh Tomlin          Drafted
Bryan Shaw          AaP

The 2025 Brewers had 6 pitchers with 1.5 WAR and four of them were acquired as prospects.

The 99 win 2023 Rays had a staff that was mostly acquired as prospects.  That team only had 3 pitchers with more than 1.5 WAR but they had a bunch of guys in the pen that contributed.  Among their top 10 pitcher by WAR, eight of them were acquired as prospects.

Zach Eflin                   FA

Tyler Glasnow           AaP

Shane McClanahan   Drafted

Drew Rasmussen      AaP

Shawn Armstrong    AaP

Pete Fairbanks          AaP

Kevin Kelly                 AaP

Robert Stephenson   AaP

Zack Littell                 AaP

Colin Poche                AaP

 

I fully agree with your assessment, but there are flaws in it that need to be pointed out as many of the players you mentioned that were AaP spent many years on other teams prior to joining the 2023 Rays.  Eflin spent 7 years in Philly, Glasnow spend 2 1/2 years in Pittsburgh, Littell spend 3 years as a Twin, Armstrong spent over 7 years with 3 teams before coming to TB, Stephenson spent over 7 years with 3 different teams.  I could maybe give you Fairbanks as he started in Texas but was traded in his first year in the majors to TB.  In looking at your 2017 Cleveland reference, I only found Shaw that played for Arizona for a little over a year before coming over to Cleveland.  I used baseball reference as my tool.  I think Cleveland is the better example as the Rays are more apt at turning around reclamation projects from other organizations (Eflin and Littell are great examples).

[KirbyDome89]

6 hours ago, Cris E said:

So what? A one year grade of the farm teams is no measure for nine years of history. Many of the best pitching moves Falvey made were never prospects (eg Grey, Stewart, Lopez) plus Law is talking about 2025 so that excludes everyone that's ever graduated to the majors (Ryan, Duran, Jax, Ober, etc.)  

You missed the point, the focus is the symmetry, i.e. the farm is in roughly the same shape upon exit as it was when Falvey entered the organization. I'm sure other publications might disagree, whatever, we're talking about a decade at the helm with two good seasons from a single SP who may or may not be cooked at this point and a couple relief (albeit one elite) arms. The fact that you even have to mention Brock Stewart amongst the greatest hits collection kinda says it all. 

[Cris E]

Is the pitching better overall compared to nine years ago? Again, it's good when you produce your own guys, but most teams don't and being able to find arms from all sources is the game at hand. Very few teams do what you are dreaming of here, and ignoring the actual performance at the major league level is baffling.

[Cris E]

15 hours ago, big dog said:

So I respect Tampa Bay for finding pitchers and making them perform better, but not many of these guys were acquired as true prospects as others are defining them. They were mostly other team's prospects who had flamed out (or in Littell's case, flamed the manager on the mound) and they were able to get more out of them.

15 hours ago, Western SD Fan said:

I fully agree with your assessment, but there are flaws in it that need to be pointed out as many of the players you mentioned that were AaP spent many years on other teams prior to joining the 2023 Rays. 

Don't get hung up on the word Prospect any more than the Pipeline mirage. Finding arms that you can get good use out of is the goal, and purity tests for sources are a distraction. Traded for at 21 vs 25, already reached A+ or AAA, original round drafted in, it's probably best to not have a single source so that if anything happens (like Wes Johnson getting hired away) you won't miss a beat.  

[jmlease1]

17 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Is the pitching better overall compared to nine years ago? Again, it's good when you produce your own guys, but most teams don't and being able to find arms from all sources is the game at hand. Very few teams do what you are dreaming of here, and ignoring the actual performance at the major league level is baffling.

I do think it's better than 9 years ago; we were desperate for starting pitching back when Falvey started; we had an unproven Berrios, an inconsistent Gibson, and an old Santana and after that it was desperation time with guys like Colon, Meija, etc. Hughes was cooked, and there wasn't a lot in the farm system that were options as starters. (the bullpen had guys however)

Looking around now, we have more strength in the MLB rotation and a lot more realistic options in the high minors with more coming along. Not all of them are going to pan out, but there's a lot more realistic options to try and make the leap, players that other teams want in trades, etc.

There's also more guys to turn into relievers too.

It's not awesome (unless a couple of guys like Matthews, Morris, Festa, Bradley, Abel, or Bradley turn into the next Ober/Ryan/SWR) but it's better, IMHO.

[Bodie]

And Twins fans are told to be excited about the "prospects" who either flop or regression in the majors. 

Helluva pipeline!  Couldn't even piece together a semblance of a bullpen with the supposed strength of the pitching. And we're how many years since the last prospect "hit"? (Jeffers is now 6 years...)

Author needs a remedial engineering course.  A sewer pipe isn't a "pipeline"...

[Bodie]

On 2/4/2026 at 2:05 PM, TJSweens said:

Pointless rationalization. Of course you need outcomes from all sources. I credited Falvey for acquiring pitching. My point is when you go outside the organization, you give up assets. 

And don't give me this development schedule bs. It's been 9 years and the only starter they produced is Bailey Ober, who is a mid rotation guy at best. 

What teams had the best pipeline in a given year couldn't be more irrelevant. The subject is the Twins pipeline over the last 9 years and it isn't good. That's why we had a fire sale to bring in more pitching prospects, while home grown prospects have stalled.

"Liked" because you're 💯 percent correct. 

Hate it because you're 💯 percent correct...

[Twinsrtheworst]

On 2/4/2026 at 5:43 PM, Linus said:

Yep I’m thinking it is being used on purpose by the writers as it never fails to get a reaction, even though nobody really knows precisely what it is 😀

Yes, you are correct, unfortunately but I agree. Happens every time.  Unfortunately, it seems more about reactions than actual good content.  And not to offend anybody, but the same writers and moderators and commentators get so angry at the Twins for prioritizing $$$ over winning.  While Twins Daily puts $$$ over actual content and most don’t see it’s the same thing.