Minnesota Twins Opening Day Roster Projection, v3.0

[Alien]

10 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

I will bet $20 neither Adams or Klein are on the opening 26 man unless there are injuries.  

I'll take that bet, and even double-down. If BOTH make the pen, you owe me $40.

 

 

[howeda7]

10 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

This is a sign to me that this currently constructed roster has very little chance of being competitive.  If we are not going to be competitive anyway, then please trade Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers, and yes Buxton too.  Ryan and Jeffers should get you a nice return.  Lopez too.  Plus his 21.5 million salary for each of this year and next could be better used elsewhere.  Buxton should kd be traded for mercy if for no other reasons.  He deserves to be on a strong contending team.  Not wasting the rest of his career with a clueless organization.

The time to trade them was 2 months ago, not 10 days before Spring Training. 

[howeda7]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Not a Clemens fan, but why would anyone be trying to wedge the backup catcher into the lineup?

Let him catch twice a week.

Well, he's one of the highest paid players on the roster...Thanks Derek. 

[Jim H]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Because Caratini is a switch hitter that is a better hitter than Clemens. Jackson may be in the 26 man to allow Caratini to DH as well as Jeffers. Clemens is really a reach as the 13th guy on a decent club.

If Caratini is a better hitter than Clemons, why is Clemons on the roster?

[mark sills]

9 hours ago, Fatbat said:

The smart money is Preillip, Raya and Matthews starting the season in ST.Paul as starters with Abel and Rojas. Any one of them could get called up due to injury, fatigue or poor performance. It would not surprise me if Festa is also in that list but it sure would be cool to see him in the bullpen on opening day. 
the chances of Outman, Roden and Kreidler and possibly Clemons being in the show for more than a month or two are slim.  I see regression in Clemons but hope that I am wrong! 
I am still betting on an epic rookie crop that will be the center pieces of a quick reset and a really fun season. 

you have two many of the 40 man pitchers in st Paul some of them will half to become relievers 

[DocBauer]

OK, so I'm late to this one due to work today. Still, I have my thoughts. The position player side is not exactly well put together, but I think it's workable, if not ideal.

1] CATCHER: Jeffers is the PRIMARY, catching about 100-105 games. He's been begging for the opportunity, and he's strong enough to handle that, IMO. Think 2 games on, one game off. You can even juggle that a little with scheduled off days where he occasionally gets 2 days off. Caratini is the #2, but he can also play 1B once in a while, but we'll get to that. I have zero issues with Jeffers getting a half day off here and there as a RH DH against LHP with Caratini behind the dish. I mean, how often does a catcher get removed from a game in this situation and you lose the DH? Very, very seldom. Jackson should be traded, if possible, maybe during ST if someone has an injury and needs help. Otherwise, let someone claim him and pay his salary. OR, he passes through waivers and probably signs with St Paul.

2] INFIELD: 3 spots are set between Lewis, Lee, and Keaschall, who should PLAY 2B. STOP with the whole OF crap and just let him settle in to 2B! If you want a few games here and there to just keep him in play, OK. But that's IT!

IMO, while I'm not crazy about it, let Clemens and Wagaman be a platoon at 1B. We just shouldn't be at this point of roster construction, but it is what it is. We want to maximize what we actually HAVE. Caratini also figures in as an occasional 1B so Clemens can move around as needed. This also allows Bell to be the primary DH, and who only has to play 1B here and there. This improves the 1B defense, even to a small degree. And it allows Clemens to slide to 2B, or an OF corner here and there as a utility player. Wagaman is an emergency 3B, as is Clemens, but we're not talking ideal here. We're talking about working with what we have.

Beyond Clemens playing a lot of 1B, and still being a functional utility player at 4 other spots since there are other possible 1B options, WHO is the utility player who can actually play SS? I'm talking out my backside here, to be honest, as I just don't know enough about Gray and Kreidler to make a judgment. Reportedly, Kreidler is the real deal at SS, and can also play a good CF. But in an admittedly SSS at the ML level, he can't hit his way out of a paper bag. And he's only been about a .240 hitter in MILB. So how "well" does he have to hit to be a defensive specialist and have a ML roster spot? And how well does Gray play SS? Because really, Gray and a POSSIBLE resurgence of Arcia...on a MILB deal...hitting around .200 makes them look like Silver Sluggers compared to Kreidler. As of TODAY, I'm going to say Gray opens as the utility player because he can at least rip open a hole in the proverbial paper bag at least.

This might be the single worst position player move that has been made.

OUTFIELD: With Falvey now removed, it's my hope that EGO is removed, and so will be Outman. He didn't impress defensively with the Twins, and simply hasn't hit a lick except for his 2023 season. And he's NOT part of any sort of future. 

Wallner is in RF, and will also face a lot of LHP. He's at least shown SOME improvement over the years doing so, you can't platoon everyone, and at some point in any game, he'll still end up facing a RHP. Buxton is the lock for CF.

Martin and Roden both have something to prove. But neither needs more AAA time. They immediately improve the LF defense, which is important. POTENTIALLY, each provides a decent bat with some OB ability, some speed, and some power in the case of Roden. PLUS, Roden seems able to play a competent CF when Buxton needs a day off. IF the massive improvement Martin has made in LF could carry over even partially to CF, he could be a THIRD option there. (*I'm leaving Kreidler out of this part of the conversation). It could be a solid quasi platoon. (Roden also has the potential to be part of the 1B situation).

What happens if Buxton gets hurt and is gone for a couple of weeks? Well, 2 of your TOP 4 prospects are CF sitting at AAA, so again, no need for Outman to be included in ANY discussion! FIVE OF feels a little lite? Remember Clemens is also a competent corner OF.

It's not an IDEAL position player roster, but it can work.

Why no Larnach? Because despite being a decent ballplayer, he doesn't FIT. He's moved by himself for a AA player, or A+ player with some potential. COMBINED with a solid prospect, he might even help add a decent RP option for the 2026 team. But honestly, I'd be really happy if he could bring back an even better Utility INF than what we currently have on hand.

ROTATION: Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and SWR. Ober appears to be healthy and ready to again. IF the SWR we saw to close 2025 with his splitter is for real, there could be a debate as to whether he or Ober is our #3. That's the good news. Who is #5 is the major question. On the surface, you'd have to say Bradley based on experience. But it's just not that simple.

While Bradley has experienced ML success, he's also regressed some. But the potential is there. Meanwhile, Matthews may have just as much talent, but hasn't quite put it together yet. But the potential is also there. Also, Abel has just as good of stuff as either of those two. 

So who STEPS FORWARD during ST? It's really nice to have arms of this quality on hand, but SOMEONE has to grab that #5 spot. Honestly, from 1-5, the Twins have POTENTIALLY one of the best rotations in MLB. (*notice I left Festa off the list deliberately).

I've preached how good the St Paul rotation could be with Bradley/Matthews, Abel, Morris, Rojas, and possibly Prielipp and CJ Culpepper could be. But what's more important? The Saints having PRIME prospects 5 deep, or the Twins having the best STAFF they can put together? 

And that leads us to....

BULLPEN: I don't know if HE knows it yet, but Festa is going to open the season in the pen for all the reasons that have been discussed at length. Sands, Topa, Funderburk, and probably Orze are part of the pen. 

There remains a HINT that there is room to add. But there's not much left in FA. Maybe Kopech on a cheap 1yr deal with hopes 2026 is a healthy season? That makes a lot of sense and shouldn't cost much. And then maybe another experienced arm like Suter? 

I'd BEG for a couple of options just to  have a couple experienced arms to hold the fort down for a couple of months to allow for Raya, Klein, and Lewis to adjust being RP. 

But considering ML need and opportunity, we shouldn't be dismissive of Matthews, Abel, and Bradley also being converted. It's just not about Twins need, but about their career as well. It would be a ridiculous usage of arm talent to ONLY play the depth piece at AAA. So SOMEONE beyond Festa is going to be transitioned. I think ST is going to figure that out. But it would still be a lot easier with a couple decent, experienced arms just to ease the young arms in to their roles.

 

[Riverbrian]

13 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Put the best 26 players on the roster going north  , how many years in a row have they kept someone that didn't have a good spring and no options left and DFA other players and lost them to a waiver claim  ...

They got to do better and hopefully they will without falvey and Rocco playing their favorites  ...

The scary part is this.

If you look at the Pirates utilization under Shelton.

Just look at 2024 before you look at the other years. It looks familiar.

Prospect failure and players like a 37 year old McCutchen leading the way. Tallez and Connor Joe getting playing time... both of whom can't find work today. Not to mention Grandal and Michael A. Taylor just before they fall off the cliff. 

Michael A got 300 AB's in 2024. OPS .543. 300 AB's.... they kept feeding him just like we kept feeding Vazquez and Margot. 

Falvey and Rocco may be gone but be careful what you wish for. 

I don't expect change. Hope to be surprised. 

 

[Eris]

21 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

My one disagreement is that I don't see how they can hide Kreidler on this roster. All of the infield bats are suspect. They just can't afford to carry a glove first utility guy

While I generally agree with your comment, a different way to look at the roster construction is that Twins had one of the worst infield defenses in the league last year and the drop off from Lewis and Lee is quite significant. 

[Cris E]

16 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins gave Ober 27 starts and 146 innings last year. His fastball is down and so is his effectiveness. He's not cutting it in the rotation. At some point you move ineffective pitchers out of the rotation and into the bullpen.

Or, and this may be crazy but hear me out, maybe he was injured and might recover.  

[Cris E]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If you look at the Pirates utilization under Shelton.

This isn't 1985 Whitey Herzog, managers do not have carte blanche to do whatever they want with the players. And while I can't speak to that organization in general, that was a small payroll team was in win-now mode to try to exploit Paul Skenes while he was still in Pittsburgh. That's hardly a scenario for best practices and far horizon thinking. 

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Or, and this may be crazy but hear me out, maybe he was injured and might recover.  

As I said before, the radar gun will tell us what we need to know

[Riverbrian]

23 minutes ago, Cris E said:

This isn't 1985 Whitey Herzog, managers do not have carte blanche to do whatever they want with the players. And while I can't speak to that organization in general, that was a small payroll team was in win-now mode to try to exploit Paul Skenes while he was still in Pittsburgh. That's hardly a scenario for best practices and far horizon thinking. 

The information I used was just 2024. I didn't choose that year specifically just didn't have to post 2023, 2022, 2021 or 2020. I chose 2024 off the top of my head. I have looked at every year that Shelton was with the Pirates and could have made the post longer.  

I don't assume that managers have carte blanche.

Very few in any profession have carte blanche when they have superiors to answer to. In baseball, I assume that the front office is going to provide the direction and the manager has to work under the conditions that exist. If the front office or manager are not on the same page. The Manager has to go. So I assume based on longevity that Shelton was on the same page. Assumptions for sure because how would I, You or anyone on TD know for sure. 

I'm saying I don't see a lot of difference in the conditions that exist. The only difference is that the Twins spent 160 million in 2024 while the Pirates spent 122 Million.  

Small Payroll Team in Win Now Mode? Yeah... OK...

And the Twins are not in Win Now Mode?

Is that 160 Million payroll still available? 

How has the offensive prospect development gone for the Pirates? How has it gone for the Twins? Pitching development both teams seem to be doing decently. I don't see a lot of difference in the conditions that exist. 

 

[Cris E]

@RiverbrianMy point is that they are in a very uncharacteristic space because of Skenes, one that's quite different from MN and possibly quite different from what Shelton might normally do, so there might not be many lessons to be drawn. Playing a backup catcher must happen everywhere, just as most teams have at least one roster hole. If you want to hold Shelton accountable for not having better CF options go ahead, but I'm not sure it's instructive.

[Riverbrian]

20 minutes ago, Cris E said:

@RiverbrianMy point is that they are in a very uncharacteristic space because of Skenes, one that's quite different from MN and possibly quite different from what Shelton might normally do, so there might not be many lessons to be drawn. Playing a backup catcher must happen everywhere, just as most teams have at least one roster hole. If you want to hold Shelton accountable for not having better CF options go ahead, but I'm not sure it's instructive.

I'm not holding Shelton accountable. 

I'm going to give Shelton a fair shot just like I gave Baldelli a fair shot. 

I've never called for the head of Falvey, Baldelli or TC Bear. 

I have criticisms obviously but I've always considered them constructive. 

I'm just saying that the Pirates and the Twins look a lot  like each other. The Twins have had more success but they spent quite a bit more. Both franchises in my opinion... need to take on a more aggressive attitude toward the development of younger players.

It's quite possible that Shelton is going from a frying pan into another frying pan. 

 

[Greggory Masterson]

16 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I've never called for the head of … TC Bear. 

I sure have

[Motherhen]

A little bird whispered in my ear that Bradley might be ticketed for the pen. Of course I heard that when Falvey was the boss.  Naturally the roster is an open book until they get on the charter but given the time of year I'm generally optimistic and this year guardedly so. The division is very winnable.

[Fatbat]

17 hours ago, mark sills said:

you have two many of the 40 man pitchers in st Paul some of them will half to become relievers 

I expect some to be convert to RP at some point but no way to predict which ones and when. Im not even sure we are done signing/trading for pitchers yet.

[DJL44]

51 minutes ago, Motherhen said:

A little bird whispered in my ear that Bradley might be ticketed for the pen. Of course I heard that when Falvey was the boss.  Naturally the roster is an open book until they get on the charter but given the time of year I'm generally optimistic and this year guardedly so. The division is very winnable.

Bradley is younger than many of the "prospect" pitchers including Connor Prielipp, David Festa and Zebby Matthews. He is basically the same age as Mick Abel. Bradley has had more success (1.7 WAR season in 2024) than most of those pitchers. He's the pitcher who is too young to give up on.

[stringer bell]

30 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Bradley is younger than many of the "prospect" pitchers including Connor Prielipp, David Festa and Zebby Matthews. He is basically the same age as Mick Abel. Bradley has had more success (1.7 WAR season in 2024) than most of those pitchers. He's the pitcher who is too young to give up on.

It seems to me that even if things go pretty well, the Twins will go eight or nine deep in starting pitchers this year. Really projections like this are about who the poster thinks will get the first shot. The results weren't there consistently, but I liked the stuff I saw from both Abel and Bradley. 

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The scary part is this.

If you look at the Pirates utilization under Shelton.

Just look at 2024 before you look at the other years. It looks familiar.

Prospect failure and players like a 37 year old McCutchen leading the way. Tallez and Connor Joe getting playing time... both of whom can't find work today. Not to mention Grandal and Michael A. Taylor just before they fall off the cliff. 

Michael A got 300 AB's in 2024. OPS .543. 300 AB's.... they kept feeding him just like we kept feeding Vazquez and Margot. 

Falvey and Rocco may be gone but be careful what you wish for. 

I don't expect change. Hope to be surprised. 

Consider this information in the context of what Tom Pohlad has been saying.  They are going to play the established players.  I think this is going to be really frustrating to watch.  

[Riverbrian]

13 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Consider this information in the context of what Tom Pohlad has been saying.  They are going to play the established players.  I think this is going to be really frustrating to watch.  

Of all the paths they could have taken. I think they are choosing the hardest and longest path. It is also the most expensive path. 

If it doesn't work... the cost isn't just not working. It will have cost us time because what needs to be done will still need to be done. It will have cost us trade return value and probably a significant trade return value because time shrinking on years of control does that sort of thing.  

They are attempting to spend themselves to a playoff birth while simultaneously reducing payroll. 

Like trying to thread a needle with an SUV. 

Ladies and Gentlemen... they are going for it! 

[Doctor Wu]

On 2/3/2026 at 10:19 PM, Cory Engelhardt said:

I THINK Larnach will be traded at some point and it's weird it hasn't happened yet.

Maybe because there aren't many, or any, teams that really want Larnach.

[Doctor Wu]

16 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Bradley is younger than many of the "prospect" pitchers including Connor Prielipp, David Festa and Zebby Matthews. He is basically the same age as Mick Abel. Bradley has had more success (1.7 WAR season in 2024) than most of those pitchers. He's the pitcher who is too young to give up on.

I like Bradley a lot and think he should remain a starting pitcher for now. Festa and Zebby in the bullpen might be a better, and more potent, combination. Still not sure how they should handle Prielipp. If he appears 100% healthy at this point, I'd keep him as starter ... but then again, we certainly do need more impact arms in our bullpen. 

[DJL44]

16 hours ago, stringer bell said:

It seems to me that even if things go pretty well, the Twins will go eight or nine deep in starting pitchers this year. Really projections like this are about who the poster thinks will get the first shot. The results weren't there consistently, but I liked the stuff I saw from both Abel and Bradley. 

9 deep in the rotation, zero deep at SS and negative two deep in the bullpen.