If you trade Joe Ryan: Do you get one great young player or two (multiple) good young players?

[Riverbrian]

Weather Joe Ryan should be traded is certainly worthy of debate. 

He could be extended... traded at the deadline or next off season or remain a Twin for the next two seasons.  

On that subject. I respect the opinions of others. However, I strongly feel that the time to trade him is this off-season.

His value will never be higher.  

BBTV isn't the be all end all in terms of value since value is in the eye of the beholder. However... using BBTV trade value as a guide... it suggests that Joe Ryan has similar value to Walter Jenkins.  

He would have to have a better year than he had last year... significantly better in order to maintain current trade value at the deadline. He would have to be Tarik Skubal like to maintain his current trade value next off-season with one year left at double the arb pay. Currently... BBTV has Skubal and Ryan at similiar value because of the extra year of control.

And of course... a significant arm injury this year could potentially wipe all of his current value to zero. That injury nightmare scenario would be the same as just losing Walter Jenkins for nothing. Many won't see that but if his trade value is similar to Walter Jenkins. He would get a Jenkins type talent back. If you don't trade Ryan for that Jenkins type talent. If injury wipes out his trade value... it's the same as losing Jenkins for nothing. 

And of course... The Twins have holes to fill and nobody can fill a hole (or two) like Ryan could.  

This leads to the question... If you Trade Joe Ryan.

Do you go for a single Walter Jenkins (or close to) type player. Or do you take a package with multiple players/prospects. 

In regards to the current roster. Their are 3 current infielders on the 26 man roster that could stand some serious upgrading. One of Fitzgerald or Kreidler will get a 26 man roster spot for SS depth. Yes Culpepper can break camp with a major league job but I don't see that happening immediately.

Clemens and Julien would probably both get roster spots if this was the roster out of spring training.

If you bring in a SS... Fitzgerald or Kriedler would lose a 26 man spot. If you bring in a 1B... Either Clemens or Julien would have to be removed from the 26 man.

Fitzgerald is the only one of those 4 players that have options remaining... So... Kriedler, Clemens and Julien would be exposed to other clubs if that matter to anyone.  

I would love to hear everyone's thoughts. Myself... I think they should go for the biggest major league ready-ish prospect they can land to bring another Jenkins type prospect into the mix.

Burridge with the Giants is similar value to Ryan and Jenkins according to BBTV. Vientos and Jett Williams and Christian Scott with the Mets would be an example of multiple players adding up to similar value to Ryan and Jenkins.  

What would you do? 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I would push for one player who is a position player that could be a core level player going forward, as well as least one more player who is a high end lottery type ticket along with that first player.

[DJL44]

I think he's worth 3 prospects: one of them in the top 50, one just outside of the top 100 and another with bench/bullpen upside. The team acquiring him will get two cheap all-star caliber pitching seasons and the right to give him a qualifying offer and get a 1st round draft pick.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, DJL44 said:

I think he's worth 3 prospects: one of them in the top 50, one just outside of the top 100 and another with bench/bullpen upside. The team acquiring him will get two cheap all-star caliber pitching seasons and the right to give him a qualifying offer and get a 1st round draft pick.

The Twins have said the starting point is two top 50 prospects, one who is ready soon and another who could be a lottery ticket type further away.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

The Twins have said the starting point is two top 50 prospects, one who is ready soon and another who could be a lottery ticket type further away.

They shouldn't care about the "ready soon" part. This team isn't ready to compete soon. Get the best talent you can get irrelevant of ETA.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They shouldn't care about the "ready soon" part. This team isn't ready to compete soon. Get the best talent you can get irrelevant of ETA.

But you can't say you get value if both players aren't potentially ready until 2028 or 2029. 

[SteveLV]

The Twins are NOT going to extend Ryan, nor probably should they with the CBA negotiation looming, his age, and their self-imposed budget.

Given that, the real choice is 2 years of Ryan for about $14M and then a comp pick in 2028 vs. whatever value they can return via trade.

That is the actual analysis to make.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins need to get any trades of Ryan, Lopez, or Buxton right. The goal is not to load up the farm system with AAAA players. One can read numerous suggested trades from East Coast bloggers and even national writers where the Twins receive a pile of utility players for Ryan.

When I or anyone else makes a suggested trade we lack the knowledge of how other teams value players. My goal would be to pry away a top prospect. Ryan will only make about $15M the next 2 years, affordable for all.

1. Ryan, Roden, Soto for Max Clark. The Tigers would benefit big but lose a prime prospect. The Twins take a gamble that the guy works.

2. Ryan, Roden, Soto for Tyler Soderstrom or Leodalis De Vries. The Athletics are unlikely to make big trades but these guys both can play. 

3. The Mets will push for Ryan. I'm not sure they part with Nolan McLean. McLean and Carson Benge is the best try, but Benge, Jonah Tong, and Ryan Clifford is possible.

Seattle is worth (risk?) a call (Ford, Anderson, Cijntje). The Twins need to extract value if they trade big names. They should shoot high and make offers that may be overpays if they can get the right player(s).

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, SteveLV said:

The Twins are NOT going to extend Ryan, nor probably should they with the CBA negotiation looming, his age, and their self-imposed budget.

Given that, the real choice is 2 years of Ryan for about $14M and then a comp pick in 2028 vs. whatever value they can return via trade.

That is the actual analysis to make.

That is the real choice... just not the choice that I'm asking. To trade or not to trade is the real shakesperian question. Along with trading at the deadline... or next off-season... or next seasons deadline.  

In consideration of Arb numbers typically doubling. 18M would be estimate on the remainder of his service time. That comp pick mention does matter because you would get something back... providing the Twins at least extend the 22 to 25 million qualifying offer in order to get the comp pick. If he Woodruff's that QO. we are at 40 million for 3 years and no comp pick nor a Jenkins type acquisition. Either way... the money to me is a secondary concern at the moment because the Twins have trimmed quite a bit of payroll. They can afford Ryan and others.  

It's simply... do you trade or do you not trade and what can you get back if you trade him.   

I'm trying to narrow that choice and just focus on... if the Twins decide to trade him. 

Let's say the Twins decide to trade him. Let's say they are looking for a deal and Passan raises his current 50% trade possibility to an 80% Jeff McNeil trade like possibility. 

Do you go for a 1 for 1 trade to get the highest rated single player you can get your hands on... A Walker Jenkins like talent? IF BBTV has it nailed and Ryan is a 52 value and Burridge with the Giants is also 52 value. Do you just go as big as you can get for one player.  

Or

Do you split his value into two or three or even more players. We have a lot of holes to fill. Grab a 30 and 20 value or a 20 and two 15 value players? 

There is no way of knowing what anyone would offer. San Francisco would probably keep want to keep Burridge and try to sell the Twins on multiple players.

My vote is go big... get the biggest baddest single prospect you can get for Ryan.

I was just curious how others felt.   

[SteveLV]

Riverbrian, did you mean Bryce Eldridge from the Giants?

I think any trade of either Ryan or Lopez to the Giants has to include Eldridge plus some other talent.  He is really the only top flight prospect I see in their system, and he has had a cup of coffee and is still 20.

I would have zero problem with Eldridge being the centerpiece of a Giants trade of one of our SP's......

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, SteveLV said:

Riverbrian, did you mean Bryce Eldridge from the Giants?

I think any trade of either Ryan or Lopez to the Giants has to include Eldridge plus some other talent.  He is really the only top flight prospect I see in their system, and he has had a cup of coffee and is still 20.

I would have zero problem with Eldridge being the centerpiece of a Giants trade of one of our SP's......

LOL... Yes I did. 

I like calling him Burridge accidentally. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

My vote is go big... get the biggest baddest single prospect you can get for Ryan.

 

Agree, which should be apparent from my previous suggested targets/trades. With no disrespect meant to any of the following, the Twins do not need any more Taits, Rodens, Abels, etc. Get the top guys are hold. As I showed from my previous comment I'm also willing to add a player or two to balance out years of control and push through a trade for top talent.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Do you go for a 1 for 1 trade to get the highest rated single player you can get your hands on... A Walker Jenkins like talent?

Even if they got a top 20 prospect (Sam Basallo, Nolan McLean, Jesus Made, Bryce Eldridge, Colt Emerson, Andrew Painter), I'd be asking for another prospect as a throw-in. I thought the Reds were fools to trade Sonny Gray straight up for Chase Petty.

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Even if they got a top 20 prospect (Sam Basallo, Nolan McLean, Jesus Made, Bryce Eldridge, Colt Emerson, Andrew Painter), I'd be asking for another prospect as a throw-in. I thought the Reds were fools to trade Sonny Gray straight up for Chase Petty.

The only information that I can utilize myself is BBTV and that of course is faulty because sometimes those deals don't match up on BBTV and ultimately deals will be made based on individual assessments. Overall BBT  does a pretty good job overall.

Take Burridge or Eldridge for example.

If I'm the Giants... he's 20 years old and the 2nd most valuable player in the organization. I'm trying to talk the you as the Twins into a package of lesser players instead so I can keep my potential superstar and get my needed pitcher... I'm offering that 18 year old Gonzalez kid and Roupp and a Reggie Crawford and hopeful that you like those players and it's better than what the Red Sox are offering.

You as the Twins are asking for not only my potential superstar and more so we are ways off.

So I call the Nationals and ask about Gore and you call the Brewers and ask about Made plus a throw in.  

In the end... the market will find itself. 

[Doc Munson]

There is one player and one player only that should be on the Twins mind if they are trading one of those two, and that is Sebastian Walcott from the Rangers.  Who coincidentally could be looking for pitching.

[tony&rodney]

20 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The only information that I can utilize myself is BBTV and that of course is faulty because sometimes those deals don't match up on BBTV and ultimately deals will be made based on individual assessments. Overall BBT  does a pretty good job overall.

Take Burridge or Eldridge for example.

If I'm the Giants... he's 20 years old and the 2nd most valuable player in the organization. I'm trying to talk the you as the Twins into a package of lesser players instead so I can keep my potential superstar and get my needed pitcher... I'm offering that 18 year old Gonzalez kid and Roupp and a Reggie Crawford and hopeful that you like those players and it's better than what the Red Sox are offering.

You as the Twins are asking for not only my potential superstar and more so we are ways off.

So I call the Nationals and ask about Gore and you call the Brewers and ask about Made plus a throw in.  

In the end... the market will find itself. 

There is value in guys like Gonzalez, Roup, and Crawford just as there is in Password, Arias, and others from the Red Sox and in every organization. To me there is a shot at getting a top ten guy instead. The Mets and Tigers are playoff type teams. They might be willing to trade a top prospect. I'm not sure the Twins will get a throw in in some cases. They might need to push, by adding,  if they want a player.

Rebuilds are tricky. While there are seldom more than a couple of trades completed in one year, the opportunity exists for more transactions. I wish the Twins would cast a wide net with the goal of pulling in top talent. It seems inevitable that Ryan and Buxton are traded, maybe Jeffers too. Lopez should be retained if the return isn't commensurate with his worth. An idea that I had was to float a transaction with West Sacramento, offering Brooks Lee and Zebby Matthews for Leodalis De Vries. 

When the Twins stood still after the 2023 season, I felt they missed their opportunity. Part of it was due to ownership but only part. All of Larnach, Wallner, Julien, and Lewis had high value amongst others and there were prospects as well to push out for a good return. That 2023 team was flawed. Now the team needs to make moves and we have no idea if they will. I think the time has arrived.  

[tony&rodney]

13 minutes ago, Doc Munson said:

There is one player and one player only that should be on the Twins mind if they are trading one of those two, and that is Sebastian Walcott from the Rangers.  Who coincidentally could be looking for pitching.

Walcott ia guy that Twins fans saw a fair amount of last summer when Frisco played Wichita. Sebastian is a physical marvel with quick hands and prodigious power. He won't stick at shortstop and is almost certainly being ticketed for right field. If the Twins could pull off a trade for Walcott that would be sweet. 

I don't think Walcott should be the first, much less only, player targeted by the Twins. I also don't see the Rangers listening on him. Lastly, Walcott is a couple of years away, which should not be a big deal but it might factor into discussions. Hard not to like Sebastian though. My preference is for more speed and defense with the power and average.

[The Great Hambino]

A question I've been batting around is would it be worth it to package Ryan with something extra (I'm not going to pretend to know what exactly that would entail) in order to access a truly elite prospect from the Basallo/McLean/Painter bucket.  Sorta how the Athletics included JP Sears with Mason Miller to help get Leo De Vries.  Depending on what that would be, I'd be interested in Basallo.  Is he a C?  Is he a 1B?  Works either way for the Twins.  

[SF Twins Fan]

All three players should be traded this offseason as long as they get back good value.  The Twins already have great depth in the farm system so they should be targeting one legit player each from both Joe Ryan and Buxton.  If they can get an extra lower-level prospect thrown in then do that.  But go big game hunting and add players who should be legit stars in the MLB.

Also, I'm assuming you mean Walker Jenkins and not Walter Jenkins.... 

[tony&rodney]

41 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

A question I've been batting around is would it be worth it to package Ryan with something extra (I'm not going to pretend to know what exactly that would entail) in order to access a truly elite prospect from the Basallo/McLean/Painter bucket.  Sorta how the Athletics included JP Sears with Mason Miller to help get Leo De Vries.  Depending on what that would be, I'd be interested in Basallo.  Is he a C?  Is he a 1B?  Works either way for the Twins.  

Yes, I believe that could work. It won't work for Samuel Basallo because Baltimore has signed him to a long term contract (8/$67M plus option year), thus he is a long term player for the Orioles. It's not that easy to get these top young prospects signed long term. 

My proposal, which admittedly can be totally rejected, is that Minnesota offer Ryan, Alan Roden, and Charlee Soto to Detroit for Max Clark. Another overpay (perhaps) that seems worth a gamble is to offer Bailey Ober, Kyle DeBarge, and Billy Amick to Arizona for Jordan Lawler. Speaking of Leo De Vries, offer the Athletics Zebby Matthews and Brooks Lee for him. Clearly there are opportunities and all trades involving prospects are gambles to some extent. The Twins need to collect as much big time talent as possible. I do think the Mets would be willing to talk about their top prospects in regards to Buxton, Ryan, and Lopez. They will not discuss Alvarez and may not/unlikely discuss McLean. The Twins should only consider guys like Tong, Benge, and maybe Sproat with Clifford as a throw in. In any event, there should be discussions.

[The Great Hambino]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes, I believe that could work. It won't work for Samuel Basallo because Baltimore has signed him to a long term contract (8/$67M plus option year), thus he is a long term player for the Orioles. It's not that easy to get these top young prospects signed long term. 

My proposal, which admittedly can be totally rejected, is that Minnesota offer Ryan, Alan Roden, and Charlee Soto to Detroit for Max Clark. Another overpay (perhaps) that seems worth a gamble is to offer Bailey Ober, Kyle DeBarge, and Billy Amick to Arizona for Jordan Lawler. Speaking of Leo De Vries, offer the Athletics Zebby Matthews and Brooks Lee for him. Clearly there are opportunities and all trades involving prospects are gambles to some extent. The Twins need to collect as much big time talent as possible. I do think the Mets would be willing to talk about their top prospects in regards to Buxton, Ryan, and Lopez. They will not discuss Alvarez and may not/unlikely discuss McLean. The Twins should only consider guys like Tong, Benge, and maybe Sproat with Clifford as a throw in. In any event, there should be discussions.

Didn't realize that about Basallo.  Good to know

[Riverbrian]

18 minutes ago, SF Twins Fan said:

All three players should be traded this offseason as long as they get back good value.  The Twins already have great depth in the farm system so they should be targeting one legit player each from both Joe Ryan and Buxton.  If they can get an extra lower-level prospect thrown in then do that.  But go big game hunting and add players who should be legit stars in the MLB.

Also, I'm assuming you mean Walker Jenkins and not Walter Jenkins.... 

Yeah

Walker

[jorgenswest]

I would deal now for a great prospect. I would not deal for multiple good prospects.

There is a big difference from a number 50 prospect and someone around number 10. I would guess that in the curve of prospects a number 50 is more similar to number 200 or 250 than number 10. The only way you trade two years of service time is for that elite prospect. The problem is that teams aren’t moving those players anymore.

I see a handful of great prospects in positions of need on teams that might be a willing trade partner. Basallo, Miller, McLean, Painter, Lombard and Eldridge. If somehow the Mariners or Tigers are going for it that would add a few more names. If they can’t get one of those players I wait and see if we are sellers at the deadline.

I appreciate the Brewers and Guardians organizations. They do trade players before they hit free agency. They don’t trade players this early. The Marlins have traded a few starters with 2 years of service time. I don’t think anyone would say those deals worked out for them. I wouldn’t follow the Marlins example. Let’s follow the Brewers.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I would deal now for a great prospect. I would not deal for multiple good prospects.

There is a big difference from a number 50 prospect and someone around number 10. I would guess that in the curve of prospects a number 50 is more similar to number 200 or 250 than number 10. The only way you trade two years of service time is for that elite prospect. The problem is that teams aren’t moving those players anymore.

I see a handful of great prospects in positions of need on teams that might be a willing trade partner. Basallo, Miller, McLean, Painter, Lombard and Eldridge. If somehow the Mariners or Tigers are going for it that would add a few more names. If they can’t get one of those players I wait and see if we are sellers at the deadline.

I appreciate the Brewers and Guardians organizations. They do trade players before they hit free agency. They don’t trade players this early. The Marlins have traded a few starters with 2 years of service time. I don’t think anyone would say those deals worked out for them. I wouldn’t follow the Marlins example. Let’s follow the Brewers.

I won't argue fiercely with you. Only slightly argue with you. I know you are on top of your stuff. 

I worry about his declining value and it's sure to decline. Those players you list are exactly what I want and I believe you are right... they are very very very very hard to acquire. We have a window this off-season to get the best that we can get because the best that we can get will surely be less as his club control time dwindles. 

Waiting for the trade deadline will knock some Ryan trade value off but the trade deadline can offer a scarcity increase in value because there are not very many sellers who has a Joe Ryan available for a deal. That competition could drive his value back up.  

However... the big risk is... Injury. If he gets hurt over the trade deadline and won't be available to deal or certainly not at the price we could ask for right now. 

The next trade window is the next off-season and now you have one year remaining at maybe 16 million, 14 million and his value is down significantly down. If the injury is Tommy John... All the value is gone... and I mean gone. We will get nothing and that is like losing a Walter Jenkins type talent because we didn't use this opportunity to get a Jenkins type talent.   

I think they gotta try and move him and hopefully the other teams will play ball with us.   

I also appreciate Milwaukee and Cleveland and I think the Twins need to pay attention to what they have been doing because that is where our club fits financially. 

The major difference for this off-season. They got a head start on this. Milwaukee can make their decisions on Woodruff and Peralta and make these type of decision knowing that they are strong candidates for making the playoffs. Cleveland can make their move with Kwan knowing that they are strong candidates for the playoffs without him. They got a head start and they can keep reloading in this fashion.

The Twins have to get to where Milwaukee and Cleveland are first and they won't until they find some Sal Frelicks.     

   

 

[Mike Sixel]

Tough call for me....because 2 eggs in the basket are more likely to produce a chicken, to stretch a metaphor.

That said, I want elite players in this system......so, um, not sure?

Good question!

Me? I'm packaging him and two middling SP minor league players for 2 elite/great prospects and two more lower ranked ones. Like, Ryan, Raya, and Morris to NYM for their top two SP prospects and 2 more of their good prospects. Turn their surplus of decent prospects into more top prospects by leveraging them with Ryan.

Note I doubt NYM do this....

[Mike Sixel]

But, if you actually look at, say FG 2025 updated list, filter out teams that won't trade for Ryan....you have a whopping 7 55 value guys available.....probably more like 4......that's not a lot of guys to choose from, so I think you are MUCH more likely to get 2 50 value guys at this point.....

[tony&rodney]

17 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

But, if you actually look at, say FG 2025 updated list, filter out teams that won't trade for Ryan....you have a whopping 7 55 value guys available.....probably more like 4......that's not a lot of guys to choose from, so I think you are MUCH more likely to get 2 50 value guys at this point.....

Yes, but the Twins only need 1 of those guys. Question is - who wants to win more? It probably comes down to Detroit, New York Mets, Philadelphia, and Seattle, in that order. One can never count the Dodgers out. I don't care for De Paula.

You are correct that it may come down to a couple of 50 players. Not all 50 types are the same. Carson Benge is down the list but he has looked better and better as he moves up the line. Just an example, not promoting him. 

The Mets will push for a Ryan, Buxton deal. If Buxton must be traded, there is value in a Tong, Benge deal. Detroit and Seattle are my preferred trading partners.

 

[Major League Ready]

40 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

But, if you actually look at, say FG 2025 updated list, filter out teams that won't trade for Ryan....you have a whopping 7 55 value guys available.....probably more like 4......that's not a lot of guys to choose from, so I think you are MUCH more likely to get 2 50 value guys at this point.....

I liked your post.  Not because I prefer two 50 FV guys but because it's really hard to make a deal for 55+ prospects.  I actually couldn't say which type of deal I preferred until I saw the actual options.  It's a tough call.  I just hope like hell they get it right.  The players acquired from Ryan/Buxton/Lopez along with the other depth in our farm system certainly have the potential to produce a real contender.  It also wouldn't hurt to win the draft lottery next summer.  😁

[tony&rodney]

14 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I liked your post.  Not because I prefer two 50 FV guys but because it's really hard to make a deal for 55+ prospects.  I actually couldn't say which type of deal I preferred until I saw the actual options.  It's a tough call.  I just hope like hell they get it right.  The players acquired from Ryan/Buxton/Lopez along with the other depth in our farm system certainly have the potential to produce a real contender.  It also wouldn't hurt to win the draft lottery next summer.  😁

What ideas do you have? I'm really curious to see the guesses thrown around. Very few people actually make guesstimates for trades. We all know we are just goofing around but I wonder what you think.

[Major League Ready]

33 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

What ideas do you have? I'm really curious to see the guesses thrown around. Very few people actually make guesstimates for trades. We all know we are just goofing around but I wonder what you think.

I don't have any ideas other posters have not already discussed.  I have been saying for a while that I am hoping for up the middle infielders.  Yes, the common wisdom is to take the best talent you can get but it would be very helpful if the best talent we can get is a middle infielder.  If I thought Adian Miller could stick at short, he would probably be my first pick although if you told me Arias was the better prospect, I would not argue the point.  Jett Williams would be a fun guy to watch but not quite the same level in my modestly informed opinion.  

A great 1B prospect would also be big just because our only hope is a conversion.  Of course, 1B is also the position we envision having a guy with an elite bat.  Basallo would be great but I think there is no chance the Orioles trade him.  I have always liked Harry Ford.  He is the guy I hoped they could swing in the Polanco deal.