If you trade Joe Ryan: Do you get one great young player or two (multiple) good young players?

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

I have always liked Harry Ford.  He is the guy I hoped they could swing in the Polanco deal.   

That trade was a disaster, not because of the return but because of what it did not return. I will say that Gabriel Gonzalez improved more in one year than any player in memory.

[MGX]

Certainly the Twins should be looking at all options & not focusing on one team or player.

With that said I think the A's are a team that matches up very well with us. I'd love to see a package for DeVries & If the A's just won't trade him then a deal involving Soderstrom would work.

Someone mentioned Walcott & the Rangers could be looking to add a starter so that may work as well. The Mariners are another team that is interesting & deal involving Ford would be good too.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I agree with Mike that prospects are a gamble, more likely hit on 1 with two than 1 with one.

i also think that contention is 2028 or later, so the details matter less. They really need to replace whole roster. Just get value in volume in the high A, double a bracket.

[notoriousgod71]

More than likely none unless your definition of good differs from mine.

 

Ryan, himself, was good. Kevin mulvey was not.

[jorgenswest]

One argument is injury. I sure hope the Twins don’t start making decisions based on the worry of injury. There is no way to build a team if you are trading away players as they begin to reach their peak for fear of injury. Doesn’t it work both ways anyway? Will they get a guarantee that the players they acquire in trade will be injury free?

The other argument is peak value. Here is a list of the FV50s from 2022. What is the chance of having an impact player fours years later? Let’s suppose they received two of these players. There are a handful of impact players in there. There are some that will be major league regulars for a while hovering around average play. There are a lot of players that have used up their options and we are still not sure. There are others that just aren’t going to make it. Four Twins are on the list in Martin, Lewis, Winder and Miranda. Would you take a random grab bag of two from that list? If we had to pick the best at that moment we might take Miranda as he was trending up while Martin and Lewis were trending down. Winder was at peak value. Future Twins Jose Salas and Diego Cartaya also made the list. It is possible to hindsight a trade and find a trading partner. I would go with Oakland’s two catchers. Hindsight is so wonderful.

If you made it this far take a look at the 45s and 45+s. You can get that a couple of that level player and better at the 2026 deadline like the Twins did getting Martin(50) and Woods Richardson(45) for Berrios. It might be two FV45s by the deadline odpf 2027. You will find some good hindsight picks in there also. I would make a deal with the Twins where I see Ryan, Duran, Woods Richardson, Wallner, Steer, Henriquez, Canterino and Balazovic. Ryan and Duran would be a wonderful hindsight return. The reality of the prospect curve is that there are so many FV45s and FV50s with not much separating the perceived future value of those 252 prospects. Hitting on a deal from the group of 84 FV50s isn’t that different from hitting from the group of 168 FV45s. Maybe that is why the Guardians and Brewers wait. The Marlins didn’t wait and the return for Luzardo already looks dismal as both prospects have dropped in value. They won 79 games last year. I have to believe they are over .500 and contending for a playoff spot a most of the year if they keep Luzardo and his 5.3 fWAR.

Now go look at the top 10. It would be hard to miss. Trade Ryan right now and you really need to get a can’t miss guy. Deal Ryan if they can get someone from the top end of the current list. Otherwise wait. There are a lot of misses in there. The key for the Twins is identifying greatness from that large group of good prospects that contains more misses than hits. Identifying that impact players from the large group of good is so much more important than the date of the deal.

 

[mnfireman]

Using MLB Top 100 and their overall value:

Berrios with 1.5 years of control returned #22 SS Martin (55) and #86 RHP SWR (55).

Hence...

Ryan with 2 years of control should get one of #24 SS Arias (55) or #28 LHP Tolle (55) and one of  #85 RF/LF Garcia (55) or #89 RHP Witherspoon (55) from BOS (plus maybe a lower level prospect).

                                                                                                OR

#25 SS/2B Lombard Jr. (55) and either #74 RHP Lagrange (55) or #97 RHP Rodriguez (55) and one lower level prospect from NYY.

I doubt neither BOS or NYY would do either of these deals...

[Riverbrian]

12 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

One argument is injury. I sure hope the Twins don’t start making decisions based on the worry of injury. There is no way to build a team if you are trading away players as they begin to reach their peak for fear of injury. Doesn’t it work both ways anyway? Will they get a guarantee that the players they acquire in trade will be injury free?

The other argument is peak value. Here is a list of the FV50s from 2022. What is the chance of having an impact player fours years later? Let’s suppose they received two of these players. There are a handful of impact players in there. There are some that will be major league regulars for a while hovering around average play. There are a lot of players that have used up their options and we are still not sure. There are others that just aren’t going to make it. Four Twins are on the list in Martin, Lewis, Winder and Miranda. Would you take a random grab bag of two from that list? If we had to pick the best at that moment we might take Miranda as he was trending up while Martin and Lewis were trending down. Winder was at peak value. Future Twins Jose Salas and Diego Cartaya also made the list. It is possible to hindsight a trade and find a trading partner. I would go with Oakland’s two catchers. Hindsight is so wonderful.

If you made it this far take a look at the 45s and 45+s. You can get that a couple of that level player and better at the 2026 deadline like the Twins did getting Martin(50) and Woods Richardson(45) for Berrios. It might be two FV45s by the deadline odpf 2027. You will find some good hindsight picks in there also. I would make a deal with the Twins where I see Ryan, Duran, Woods Richardson, Wallner, Steer, Henriquez, Canterino and Balazovic. Ryan and Duran would be a wonderful hindsight return. The reality of the prospect curve is that there are so many FV45s and FV50s with not much separating the perceived future value of those 252 prospects. Hitting on a deal from the group of 84 FV50s isn’t that different from hitting from the group of 168 FV45s. Maybe that is why the Guardians and Brewers wait. The Marlins didn’t wait and the return for Luzardo already looks dismal as both prospects have dropped in value. They won 79 games last year. I have to believe they are over .500 and contending for a playoff spot a most of the year if they keep Luzardo and his 5.3 fWAR.

Now go look at the top 10. It would be hard to miss. Trade Ryan right now and you really need to get a can’t miss guy. Deal Ryan if they can get someone from the top end of the current list. Otherwise wait. There are a lot of misses in there. The key for the Twins is identifying greatness from that large group of good prospects that contains more misses than hits. Identifying that impact players from the large group of good is so much more important than the date of the deal.

 

This is what I try to keep saying. No one knows who will rise and who will fail. They are making extreme utilization decisions on marginal differences from a large pile of players in the middle. The front office have more informed guesses than we do but they don't know either. 

This is proven true time and time again. It applies to whoever we get back in a trade for Ryan and to whoever is on our roster currently. 

The only thing that you can do to mitigate this.

Volume

If the Twins... or anyone is afraid to add a talented SS because Lewis is at 3B, Lee is at SS, Keaschall is at 2B and we have Culpepper in St. Paul. It's a terrible mistake to feel that way because of what you posted. Injuries and the very real chance of failure.   

It's a terrible mistake because if you added a talented SS to our mix. It would mean 4 players with potential to cover 3 spots. Those players would sit one game out of every 4 if divided equally. That isn't going to compromise anyone's development

And it won't last long because the equation will change because of injuries that are sure to occur and if Lee starts to OPS .800 while the new SS is a .600 OPS guy. The manager will change the equation because the players have told him through performance.

If the Twins take this approach... they will get where they need to go faster than hand selecting and hoping that Lee works out at SS getting every single start with Kreidler wasting a 26 man spot not playing waiting for an injury to Lee so he can come in an OPS .300 as his replacement. 

And if by some chance... a miracle actually... that the new Young SS, Lewis, Keaschall, Lee and Culpepper are all tearing the cover off the ball and playing exceptional baseball. It won't happen but if it does... They can trade one of of them for someone else's Joe Ryan... because it's been established... that teams just don't give up these uber talented guys so if you have an extra one lying around... the return for one of them will be huge.

But, you can't get to that point if you are just sitting there hoping that Brooks Lee gets it done and Brooks Lee is the only player that you are willing to seriously provide opportunity to and if he doesn't... you are just starting over with a single player 3 years later.  

  

 

[nicksaviking]

On 12/2/2025 at 9:16 AM, DJL44 said:

They shouldn't care about the "ready soon" part. This team isn't ready to compete soon. Get the best talent you can get irrelevant of ETA.

While I agree with the sentiment that this team isn't terribly close to competing, I personally would hardly ever rank players in A ball in any top 50 list; mostly just the cream of the crop from the most recent draft. My lists would almost exclusively be AA and AAA players who everyone has a significantly better idea about.

[nicksaviking]

9 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Using MLB Top 100 and their overall value:

Berrios with 1.5 years of control returned #22 SS Martin (55) and #86 RHP SWR (55).

Hence...

Ryan with 2 years of control should get one of #24 SS Arias (55) or #28 LHP Tolle (55) and one of  #85 RF/LF Garcia (55) or #89 RHP Witherspoon (55) from BOS (plus maybe a lower level prospect).

                                                                                                OR

#25 SS/2B Lombard Jr. (55) and either #74 RHP Lagrange (55) or #97 RHP Rodriguez (55) and one lower level prospect from NYY.

I doubt neither BOS or NYY would do either of these deals...

Martin got traded mid season between rankings though. While the Blue Jays surely sold the Twins on his lofty rankings, the ranking wonks just as surely were already kicking him down their lists as it had already become clear he was only a station-to-station slap hitter.

[old nurse]

Real good player are unlikely to be traded for a 2 years of control. player who does not have a history of elevating in the playoffs. Just like with the Nelson Cruz trade, teams do make mistakes when they. Need a player for a push. 

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

While I agree with the sentiment that this team isn't terribly close to competing, I personally would hardly ever rank players in A ball in any top 50 list; mostly just the cream of the crop from the most recent draft. My lists would almost exclusively be AA and AAA players who everyone has a significantly better idea about.

Then I wouldn't get too obsessed that the Twins "didn't get a top 100 prospect". The Yankees got unranked Luis Gil for Jake Cave. 1/3 of the future top talent will spend time in the foreign rookie leagues. Quantity in prospects is a necessary hedge. If you want lower risk (only picking from AA and AAA players) you're going to give away potential upside.

[mnfireman]

9 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Real good player are unlikely to be traded for a 2 years of control. player who does not have a history of elevating in the playoffs. Just like with the Nelson Cruz trade, teams do make mistakes when they. Need a player for a push. 

Neither Ryan or Strotman top prospects, Ryan was TB's #14 prospect and Strotman was TB's #22 prospect. The fact that Cruz was only league average (101 OPS+) after the trade and struggled in the play-offs (they at least still made the play-offs) is a risk attached to trading for a 40 year old, DH only, type player.

I don't think Ryan was projected to be as good as he as become, most reports I read saw him as a mid-rotation starter at best, though he did crack some Top 100 lists prior to the 2022 season. I'm sure the Twins saw something they liked, and he accepted the coaching, including going to Driveline, and had the drive to make himself better.

[nicksaviking]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Then I wouldn't get too obsessed that the Twins "didn't get a top 100 prospect". The Yankees got unranked Luis Gil for Jake Cave. 1/3 of the future top talent will spend time in the foreign rookie leagues. Quantity in prospects is a necessary hedge. If you want lower risk (only picking from AA and AAA players) you're going to give away potential upside.

I don't want quantity, I want quality. I just want that quality to be AA and AAA players. So yeah, give me the best prospects AND the prospects that are closest to the majors; because I think they are largely the same thing.

I understand that's a bigger ask than most teams will part with, but that's why I have much less interest in trading for prospects than I did a decade ago. This isn't turn of the century Terry Ryan baseball anymore, the team buying the good MLB player wins the trade just about every time these days. 

So if push comes to shove and the Twins must trade, while I wasn't as interested in the return for the Duran trade as most, Abel was the significantly better get in my book. An A ball catcher with thus far only modest offensive production? The evaluators can drool all they want, that seems like a major long shot at being a top end MLB player. That far away there are so many more ways for things to fall apart.

I'm fine that others feel different about this.

[old nurse]

33 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Neither Ryan or Strotman top prospects, Ryan was TB's #14 prospect and Strotman was TB's #22 prospect. The fact that Cruz was only league average (101 OPS+) after the trade and struggled in the play-offs (they at least still made the play-offs) is a risk attached to trading for a 40 year old, DH only, type player.

I don't think Ryan was projected to be as good as he as become, most reports I read saw him as a mid-rotation starter at best, though he did crack some Top 100 lists prior to the 2022 season. I'm sure the Twins saw something they liked, and he accepted the coaching, including going to Driveline, and had the drive to make himself better.

You are confusing rankings with a team’s knowledge of the player.. 

[mnfireman]

51 minutes ago, old nurse said:

You are confusing rankings with a team’s knowledge of the player.. 

The two go very much hand in hand, however a team is more likely to over-value one of its assets as compared to scouts rankings. However, as can be seen in the different national groups doing the rankings, a player's ranking/value can be hard to judge. I was just using one available tool to find similar values and trade possibilities, I chose MLB player/prospect rankings, but I could have just as easily used Fan Graphs. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't want quantity, I want quality. I just want that quality to be AA and AAA players. So yeah, give me the best prospects AND the prospects that are closest to the majors; because I think they are largely the same thing.

I understand that's a bigger ask than most teams will part with, but that's why I have much less interest in trading for prospects than I did a decade ago. This isn't turn of the century Terry Ryan baseball anymore, the team buying the good MLB player wins the trade just about every time these days. 

So if push comes to shove and the Twins must trade, while I wasn't as interested in the return for the Duran trade as most, Abel was the significantly better get in my book. An A ball catcher with thus far only modest offensive production? The evaluators can drool all they want, that seems like a major long shot at being a top end MLB player. That far away there are so many more ways for things to fall apart.

I'm fine that others feel different about this.

My thoughts are similar. It is surely a difficult line to draw when a front office looks over the names being discussed and the guys below AA have such unknown qualities and are untested. There are times to target or accept a player from the rookie leagues. I guess one needs to hedge their bets and push hard to make an attempt where it is possible. We have no idea what is possible. Among many ideas for trading Joe Ryan, there are attempts to draw out a preferred (by me) player via adding two players to go with Ryan as a prod to complete a trade. These too could fail spectacularly. Ryan, Rodon, Soto for one of the following: Leodalis De Vries, Max Clark, or Tyler Soderstrom. It seems more likely that we see a trade to the Mets, where I would ask for Nolan McLean plus Clifford but accept Tong, Benge, and Clifford. The Twins can still find ways to improve their roster through many other trades with lesser players.

I'm also fine that others feel differently and am always interested to hear their ideas. Different opinions are a good thing.