One Big Thing: Can His New Sinker Save Bailey Ober?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Bailey Ober entered his fifth big-league season with a 3.76 career ERA and a 3.90 career FIP. Despite below-average fastball velocity, he had a 25.6% career strikeout rate. Even at his best, he was vulnerable to the occasional blowup, usually because hitters would square him up and hit a couple of home runs against him in a given start. On balance, though, he was a reliably strong starter, and occasionally something like an ace.

In 2025, his career went off the rails. His ERA spiked to 5.10, and a 4.90 FIP says that was no mere fluke. He continued to pound the strike zone, for the most part, walking just 5.0% of opposing batters, but he allowed almost a home run for every free pass he issued. His strikeout rate, by contrast, plunged to 19.2%. It was, in a word, miserable.

For many, Ober's low velocity became a focal point. He did lose roughly 1.5 miles per hour in average speed on his heater, pushing him from below-average to one of the very lowest figures in the league. Amid a confusing and frustrating season for both the hurler and Twins fans, confirmation bias rushed in to fill gaps in the collective understanding. Many had always been suspicious of Ober, even as he racked up high-quality innings, because he didn't throw hard. As he spiraled downward and that velocity dropped even more, those doubters pointed the finger of blame toward that dearth of power.

Honestly, though, velocity wasn't the problem for Ober in 2025. It'd be lovely if he discovered a way to get back the speed he lost, and even to vault ahead, but he didn't fail because he doesn't throw hard enough. Rather, the problems that piled up on him had to do with insufficient feel for movement and location, on all the pitches in his diverse arsenal.

Compare the location of his four-seam fastballs and changeups against left-handed batters, from 2024 and 2025. In the former season, he held lefties to a .235 weighted on-base average (wOBA). In the latter one, that number was .305.

When Ober used his heater against lefties, he was much more likely to pull the ball and put it on the inner third of the plate this year than in the past. He missed inside on them more and above the zone more. The area he targeted most often in 2024 (and had the most success in), up and away, was harder for him to hit. With his changeup, he missed away by a significant margin more often. Given the way his stuff works, those pitches well off the plate didn't tempt opposing batters much.

The same was true, broadly, when Ober faced righty batters.

Against righties, Ober's fastball missed high less often this year, but that just meant that it spent more time in hittable areas along the top rail. His changeup was, of course, less of a weapon to righties than to lefties; that's in the nature of an offspeed pitch to same-handed batters. 

One major key to Ober's season—one that shows up in the image above, but relatively subtly—is the new sinker he incorporated. It wasn't a panic-induced inclusion in his arsenal; Ober brought that new pitch to spring training and utilized it right away when the season began. However, it never became much of a factor for him. He threw fewer than 100 total sinkers, almost all of them to fellow righties. 

The sinker isn't a good pitch, really. According to pitch-modeling metrics, it's perhaps the worst offering in his repertoire.

The pitch will have value, though, if Ober can gain better comfort with it and start locating it more consistently—thereby giving him the chance to throw it more often. As you can see above, Ober's breaking balls also don't rate very well. Both his sweeper and his shorter, tighter slider need work, and having a different fastball to play off of might pay big dividends for him.

Reliably using the sinker would open up more of the strike zone and mitigate some of Ober's homer problems. It might also, indirectly and eventually, restore his ability to miss bats against righties. As he heads into his 30s, Ober probably won't suddenly regain the velocity he suddenly lost last year. What he could do, however, is tap into the value of an altered arsenal that suits his strengths and his style well. He just needs to build significantly on the small experiment he attempted during his worst season yet. The Twins need their mid-rotation workhorse back. Ober can still be that guy, but it might require an uncomfortably complete reinvention.

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[Doctor Wu]

Honestly, though, velocity wasn't the problem for Ober in 2025. 

Wasn't he dealing with some leg issues also?

[old nurse]

For whatever reason the command part of Ober’s game was missing. Whether something was off physically all year with him would be the first question. Was he in a predictable pattern with his pitches?  Sometimes a pitcher being schizoid would be a goos thing 

[EGFTShaw]

19 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Honestly, though, velocity wasn't the problem for Ober in 2025. 

Wasn't he dealing with some leg issues also?

Trying to figure out if your username is from Big Trouble in Little China or an Asian adaptation of Doctor Who. 😏

Ober was dealing with hip issues at least for the latter half of the season

[rdehring]

Very detailed analysis, Matt.  

But is it possible the main part of his problem was his hip injury?  Gotta wonder what he would have been like in September had the Twins shut him down when he first began having problems.  Wasn't it in May that he began dealing with his hip problem?  Yet, no mention of the injury until I began reading the comments above.

I remain hopeful that Ober is the pitcher he was prior to last May and that pitcher will return in 2026.

[TJSweens]

You can make a case for command as a contributing factor in Ober's struggles last year. At the same time, you can't dismiss his lost velocity as a major factor as well. Even in 2024, Ober's fastball was almost 2 mph below league average. When Ober was throwing close to 92 in 2024, it played well with his height and wingspan, since his release was that much closer to the plate. Batters were often late on a below average fastball. He can't get that same effect at 90.4. 

My guess is that the velo and command are both tied to the hip labrum issue. At age 30, a profound velo drop shouldn't be expected without an underlying cause.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Getting control of a new pitch to use as a weapon is always a good idea if he can pull it off.  However, I recall a season a couple years back when Joe Ryan tried to pitch through a hidden groin injury.  It went poorly and Ryan was widely (and rightfully) criticized for doing so.  This past season Ober was admittedly pitching through a hip injury.  Given the results, I’m pretty sure that was a very bad idea also.  Hopefully some recovery over the winter will do as much to improve his lot as anything else.  

[PatPfund]

Despite an upbeat headline, and an underlying 'he can do it' attitude, this is pretty bleak stuff about one of my favorite Twins. There are some unconvincing pretty pictures that try to show velocity doesn't matter (there is as much confirmation bias in the OP analysis as in supposing velocity doesn't matter, because 2025 could just as well show a pitcher getting hammered and trying different locations as opposed to one losing feel). There is data showing the backup pitches are pretty bad. There is the knowledge that a pitcher who DEPENDS on elite extension has a hip issue (and maybe rest works, but he had a month off and was still bad upon his return).

Even the OP concludes the velocity is probably gone forever, and Ober "might require an uncomfortably complete reinvention." I agree, and that is why I'd non-tender one of my favorite Twins; such a re-invention is best done in AAA or someone else's uniform.

 

[Nshore]

Speaking of "uncomfortably complete reinventions", I think some of these guys, including Ober, would benefit from an expansion of the "bullpen days" approach to managing pitching.  Limit pitchers to three innings in two out of the five start cycle (or more).  Plan for it in roster construction from the start of spring training.

Ober doesn't have the strength to last a full season as a traditional starter.  

[tony&rodney]

When Ober is right he is a very effective starting pitcher. My expectation is that he returns to his form prior to the hip injury. There is definitely much that is uncertain: velocity, command, and his ability to throw all of his pitches.

There are bound to be a few teams wondering if Ober can be acquired. I don't have that knowledge but starting pitching is always in demand. There must also be some good athletes who, similarly, have not performed to expectations for their clubs that may be available. I have no information or guesses on the legitimacy of any guesses, but can throw out one such thought. Jordan Lawler was a highly rated prospect who has been injured frequently and fared very poorly in a couple of attempts for the Arizona  Diamondbacks. Arizona is flush with infield prospects and in need of pitching. Again, I have no idea how Arizona evaluates either Lawler or Ober, but a change of scenery might be good for both players. A key question would be how each team views Lawler.  Because Lawler has more years of control it might be necessary to include a guy like Jose Olivares, an exciting pitching prospect, along with Ober to acquire Lawler. This is just an example. If Bailey Ober can be the Twins #3 starting pitcher I'm fine with him in that role. The idea of trading him is merely my thoughts that all avenues must be explored for improving the roster.

An obvious question in return would be why ask about Lawler? He is a gamble. His value might be low and Diamondback fans (perhaps their front office too) may stress at the idea of selling low. My sense is that the Twins need a few gambles this offseason. I would attempt to widen a transaction by asking about the injured Justin Martinez. It is possible these ideas are laughable but the conversations seeking potential acquisitions needs to take place. 

I don't think the Twins need to trade Bailey Ober. I believe he can return to form. All considerations need to be on the table though.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Nshore said:

Speaking of "uncomfortably complete reinventions", I think some of these guys, including Ober, would benefit from an expansion of the "bullpen days" approach to managing pitching.  Limit pitchers to three innings in two out of the five start cycle (or more).  Plan for it in roster construction from the start of spring training.

Ober doesn't have the strength to last a full season as a traditional starter.  

The 31 starts and 178 2/3 innings in 2024 suggest otherwise. he might miss a little time through the course of a season, but it's pretty reasonable to expect 25-30 starts from him.

It's going to be very interesting to see where Ober lands next season; there's a case to be made that the loss of velocity or the lack of sharpness in commanding his pitches or both are what pulled him down last season and figuring out how to alleviate that is the real issue for him.

I was looking at the contrast in his seasons between 2024 and 2025 through the lens of Game Score, and where Ober really fell off this past season was in those high quality starts, anything with a Game Score of 55 or higher, which generally gives you a starting pitching performance that gives your team an excellent chance to win, and probably has the pitcher exiting either tied or with a lead. Ober had 19 of those in 2024, and only 12 in 2025. The poor starts (anything with a Game Score equal to or under 40 remained the same (6 each), and there wasn't much difference in the ones in between either (6 in 2024 and 8 in 2025). Even the truly awful blowups were basically the same (Game Score of under 30 was 4 in 2024 and 3 in 2025)

Not getting as many of those high-end starts is what really dragged Ober's season down; he only had 1 with a Game Score over 70 in 2025 (his last start of the year, in fact), while he had 9 of them in 2024. Finding those stellar starts again might require getting back a little of that velocity AND the command to go with a sinker?

I'm certainly not ready to give up on Ober, and trying to trade him now would be a classic case of selling low. If they can get the hip right in the offseason it might make a world of difference.

[bean5302]

In a word, "nope" is almost certainly the answer. Virtually no MLB starter can be successful throwing 89mph fastballs, and Ober was in that range towards the end of 2025. He'll be in his age 31 season next year, too, so expectations the velo even makes it back to 90mph and stays there is a little dicey.

Ober was throwing 91-92mph in 2024. That's where he needs to be to be successful. The amount of time an MLB hitter has to react and read pitches when throwing sub-90 makes it very unlikely pitchers can be successful in this era.

[DocBauer]

To me it's similar to the age old chicken vs the egg debate. Did his hip cause mechanical/command issues and velocity to disappear, or did he hurt his hip because his command disappeared due to mechanical issues?

While in MILB, he put up video game numbers but was often hurt due to mechanics. At 6' 9" there's a lot of moving parts to get right. The Twins fixed those mechanics, and suddenly he became a quality ML starter, though they did nurse him a bit early on in his debut. Multiple times last year he complained his mechanics were out of whack and he refused to blame his hip. Accurate? Or him trying to "man up" and not offer up excuses?

Assuming for a moment that his hip injury is not serious or chronic in nature...and there have been no reports that it is...rest and rehab should see a return to form. He's not exactly an old man going in to his age 31 season. And there aren't a ton of miles on his arm either. I think it's reasonable to see his hip get right, for him to get his mechanics working again, to see 91-92MPH consistently again, and we see a return to previous form. Any kind of better command of this new 2 seamer just adds to his arsenal and gives batters something else to think about, even if it's not a primary offering.

Now, if the hip continues to flare up, I think we have to be concerned about his future. But until I/we hear about a lingering issue, I'm expecting a return to past success at age 31.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

In a word, "nope" is almost certainly the answer. Virtually no MLB starter can be successful throwing 89mph fastballs, and Ober was in that range towards the end of 2025. He'll be in his age 31 season next year, too, so expectations the velo even makes it back to 90mph and stays there is a little dicey.

Ober was throwing 91-92mph in 2024. That's where he needs to be to be successful. The amount of time an MLB hitter has to react and read pitches when throwing sub-90 makes it very unlikely pitchers can be successful in this era.

Ober does need to be in that 91-92mph range but he was injured and it is a part of full health that returns his prior velocity. Ober is a big dude and he is coming into his own. Guys who are injured do return, as we saw with Pablo Lopez. I'm not comparing the two because their slots and stuff is different but simply saying that pitchers do come back from injury. Ober isn't old.

[bean5302]

7 hours ago, DocBauer said:

...He's not exactly an old man going in to his age 31 season. And there aren't a ton of miles on his arm either. I think it's reasonable to see his hip get right, for him to get his mechanics working again, to see 91-92MPH consistently again, and we see a return to previous form...

Blue dotted line is velocity. There are more than a couple articles out there which paint a very bleak outlook for Ober regaining velocity. Theoretically possible, but regaining lost velocity past age 30 isn't common. He'd be expected to naturally start declining velocity, even if his mechanics/hip were great.

[Doctor Wu]

21 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

Ober was dealing with hip issues at least for the latter half of the season

That's what I thought. Hopefully, that was the biggest reason for his regression. 

[tony&rodney]

Curious about decline of pitchers taller than 6'-6", because taller pitchers often develop more slowly and hold their peak longer. Not sure on this; merely a thought.

[Dawgzilla]

Ober's arm is shot...topping out at 89 mph at end of season...which is open season for hitters.  O.K., so he had hip/back problems, then why are you sending him out there when he is not fully healed, let alone gonna get shelled and give team no chance to win?!!!????!!???!?????!!!  Duh!