Two Very Different Roads Forward for Twins Roster After Pohlad Family Ownership Decision

[Maybe Next Year]

2 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

The phrase, "desperately need position players" is interesting to me. I see an infield in 2016 of Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, and a platoon at 1st base. I see an OF of Buxton, Wallner, and Larnach. I don't hate that lineup in 26, depth off the bench concerns me quite a bit (use late in last night's game as a reference).

There are guys in this lineup that need to be better, and obvious statement, but its worth a shot. The bullpen has to be remade but the rotation next year of Lopez, Ryan, Abel, Ober, and Bradley can potentially win the AL Central, certainly compete for a wildcard. Get back a bullpen and in the Central, you're never out of it

The Twins don't desperately need position players- they desperately need a new manager who can develop the talent we have. We supposedly have the 2nd best farm system in the majors. Why is it when we have been calling up those kids the past 8 years they don't perform at the ML level? Baldelli and staff.

[Coach Wheels]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

This is a bad team. Not only is Lee a huge question mark, Wallner and Larnach are terrible defenders and there's no 1B. 

So that's 4 big question marks, and means the Twins desperately need position players. Like he said. 

Agree to disagree. I will add that moving Wallner or Larnach to 1st base could be part of the mix. That would allow you to add better OF talent

[Major League Ready]

37 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

If a competent first baseman is so easy to find, why did the Twins sign Ty France this past off-season and now have Clemens and Julien alternating there?

Name a position that's easier to fill?

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Ha! 
A prudent investor would see he brings about $25M in value for about $10M in arb costs. Ryan should be a +$15M player in these next 2 years. No doubt you could get a haul for him at the 2026 deadline if we stink up the world next season.

The "$25M in value" you refer to is not "cash in my pocket" value. That's what the investors likely care about. Joe Ryan is worth $25M in on field value. Your "prudent investor" would only care about that value if they care about winning baseball games and not getting their investment back. You're assuming these new minority investors care about on field performance and didn't invest in a business. As the other poster was saying, trading Ryan to save his arb raises (likely about $18 million over the next 2 years) and going with Abel (for example) on a league minimum deal in his spot instead saves the team over $16 million in salary. They don't care about the WAR/Dollar value, they care about the actual dollar value. 

[The Great Hambino]

I can appreciate the optimism from those that think the Twins are both willing and able to compete in 2026, but there isn't a single action that they've taken since the trade deadline - really, since the end of the playoff run - that suggests an intention to be competitive next season.

Duran, Jax, Stewart, and Varland all could've been key contributors in a push to be competitive in 2026.  But they were all moved for returns that aren't likely to be helpful in 2026 (assuming you're keeping all of Ryan, Lopez, and Ober for this 2026 push).

Abel and Bradley: They're not cracking the rotation with everyone healthy and retained, so their best bet at a 2026 contribution is making an effective transition to the bullpen immediately.  Outside shot of providing 2026 value in this scenario at best.   If they're in next year's rotation entering the season, it's because some or all of the vets have been traded.

Tait and Rojas: not contributing to 2026 (especially Tait)

Roden: Redundant at best for 2026 (he might be better than Larnach eventually, but certainly isn't right now). Most likely a reserve with younger, better prospects (ERod, Jenkins) nipping at his heels

Outman: LOL

These are (mostly) moves with a fair to good chance of improving the future, but not right away.  Expecting them to try to compete next year is not realistic in my view.  

The passage from the stupid letter that says the new limited parnters align with "Pohlad family values" should be the final nail in the coffin of the idea of meaningful reinvestment in 2026

 

[mnfireman]

Deleted, replied to wrong article...

[Major League Ready]

40 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The "$25M in value" you refer to is not "cash in my pocket" value. That's what the investors likely care about. Joe Ryan is worth $25M in on field value. Your "prudent investor" would only care about that value if they care about winning baseball games and not getting their investment back. You're assuming these new minority investors care about on field performance and didn't invest in a business. As the other poster was saying, trading Ryan to save his arb raises (likely about $18 million over the next 2 years) and going with Abel (for example) on a league minimum deal in his spot instead saves the team over $16 million in salary. They don't care about the WAR/Dollar value, they care about the actual dollar value. 

There is another possibility in terms of how these new investors see Ryan.  They could be looking at his value in terms of making a playoff run.  If that's the case, they would evaluate their odds of making a playoff run in 2026 or 2027 if we have a 2027 season.  Then, they would determine if they have a better chance making a playoff run or two by trading Ryan for assets that would contribute after 2027 for the next 5-7 years.  

Obviously, you never know with prospects even ones as good as Keaschall / Jenkins / Gonzalez / Rodriguez / Culpepper / Abel / Rojas and you could say Matthews and Festa still are not proven.  Of course, we need to add whatever they received in trading Ryan / Lopez and perhaps Ober.  On the flip side, what are the chances with mostly the same group of players that are failed this year minus 4 very good RPs.  IMO, 2026 is an extreme longshot.  So, should those investors bet on 2027 (which might not happen) or the 5-7 years following 2027?

[hitterscount]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Rebuilds do generally takes several years.  However, most of the time, rebuilds happen after a window of contention where the team has not had high draft picks and they have traded away prospects for missing pieces like the nationals for example who are in year 6.  Those teams generally do not have many good prospects that are near major league ready.  That is far from the case here.

The Twins already have three young SPs in SWR / Matthews / Festa and Abel that are just starting to establish themselves in the majors.  They have several others in the system.  Some will certainly fail but some others will be ready in the next year or so.  Where position players are concerned.  Buck has 3 more years and Keaschall looks like a game changer.  Wallner needs to go to a part-time defensive player but the bat is somewhere between above average and great.

Both corner OF spots need to be replaced but they have both quantity and quality for these positions.  We don't have many options that are near at SS but the one we have looks great.  That leaves 1st base as the big hole and that's not a hard position to fill.  

This just does not look like a 5+ year rebuild.  They have a lot to work through in 2026 but they should have a very talented young team in 2027.   

Agree 100%. Questions or problems could be BP, specifically a closer in high pressure situations. The other thing I see, and just my opinion, Wallner is not a great hitter. He either transitions to first or he is mainly a bench guy that could DH against RH pitching.

To me, Lewis and Keaschall are critical. If Keaschall can continue anywhere near what he has been doing that fills a huge need at second base, good plate approach and solid enough defensively. Lewis’ defense is above average, he needs to get back to better plate approaches (2023) and stay healthy.

if those things can happen, Cullpepper and another outfielder develops by next spring they are not that far off from having a competitive roster.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

There is another possibility in terms of how these new investors see Ryan.  They could be looking at his value in terms of making a playoff run.  If that's the case, they would evaluate their odds of making a playoff run in 2026 or 2027 if we have a 2027 season.  Then, they would determine if they have a better chance making a playoff run or two by trading Ryan for assets that would contribute after 2027 for the next 5-7 years.  

Obviously, you never know with prospects even ones as good as Keaschall / Jenkins / Gonzalez / Rodriguez / Culpepper / Abel / Rojas and you could say Matthews and Festa still are not proven.  On the flip side, what are the chances with mostly the same group of players that are failed this year minus 4 very good RPs.  IMO 2026 is an extreme longshot.  So, should those investors bet on 2027 (which might not happen) or the 5-7 years following 2027?

There are a lot of ways they could look at Ryan and the team. I was just trying to explain that the way that poster used "value" isn't the same as actual cash value like the poster they'd responded to was talking about in the investors getting their money back. 

As for the investors and their view on roster decisions, I'll be surprised and impressed if the Pohlads (Joe especially) are willing to give them a real voice in decisions. Most MLB teams have minority owners. They aren't making the decisions on how the team is run. Hopefully they can be a bit of a guiding force, but there's a reason Derek Jeter isn't a minority owner of the Marlins anymore. The big dogs at the table eat first. It'll be interesting to see how this all progresses.

[In My La Z boy]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

The "$25M in value" you refer to is not "cash in my pocket" value. That's what the investors likely care about. Joe Ryan is worth $25M in on field value. Your "prudent investor" would only care about that value if they care about winning baseball games and not getting their investment back. You're assuming these new minority investors care about on field performance and didn't invest in a business. As the other poster was saying, trading Ryan to save his arb raises (likely about $18 million over the next 2 years) and going with Abel (for example) on a league minimum deal in his spot instead saves the team over $16 million in salary. They don't care about the WAR/Dollar value, they care about the actual dollar value. 

The Brewers are on pace to attract 1 Million more fans to the ballpark than we are. As of today they have us by 700,000. New minority owners should understand a better product on the field is how you make money. Joe Ryan will more than pay for himself. Trading him for some future magic beans is a loser in the money making department in my opinion.

[NYCTK]

Path #2 would be extremely foolish. This team can put together a somewhat competitive team in 2026, but there is no world in which they are contenders. 

They should try to extend Jeffers but there's a slim chance a Boras client takes a contract extension on a bad team a year from free agency. And if he doesn't we can debate the merits of: A) trading him in the offseason B) trading him midseason C) losing him for nothing. There's a chance there's little trade market for him, seeing as we know there wasn't any real interest in him from San Diego at the trade deadline, so it might be worth just keeping him and seeing if you can be somewhat competitive, and if not, trade him at next year's trade deadline. 

The Twins SHOULD trade one of Pablo Lopez or Joe Ryan this offseason. They can try to work out an extension with either of them, but there's no chance both of them are on the roster in 2027. The Twins should be able to trade from a strength and get two near ready players to fill some of the many holes in their roster. 

• Crochet returned: 2 top prospects, an additional MLB ready, 45 grade prospect, and a RP.
• Cease returned: 1 top prospect, 2 additional 40 grade prospects, and a RP. 
• Tyler Glasnow: 26 year old MLB ready SP and a 40 grade MLB ready OF prospect. 

Just as an example because I know their system well, and I can fill in some fits for the team, I'll say the Twins trade Ryan to the Mets for Jett Williams, Ryan Clifford, and Chris Suero, 50, 45 and 40 grade prospects all in the high minors at MIF, 1B, and C.

The Twins SHOULD buy up 3 good bullpen arms in free agency. Hire someone like Kenley Jansen who isn't top of the line anymore, but wants to keep closing in order to pad his career stats. He'll still command 8-10 Million probably, but on a 1 year deal that can be shopped at the deadline. In addtion the Twins can try to swap Larnach for a decent RP. With Roden on the team as a placeholder OF, Larnach is even more redundant than before. 

The Twins should also bring in a veteran MIF, like Kyle Farmer. Brooks Lee is a huge question mark as is the timeline for Culpepper's development. This would prevent a massive blackhole forming if Lee just isn't up to the job, or injury strikes. 

 

SP	Pablo López	CF	Byron Buxton
SP	Zebby Matthews	DH	Matt Wallner
SP	David Festa	3B	Royce Lewis
SP	Taj Bradley	C	Ryan Jeffers
SP	Bailey Ober	RF	Emmanuel Rodriguez
		2B	Luke Keaschall
RP	Danny Coulombe	1B	Kody Clemens
RP	Justin Topa	LF	Alan Roden
RP	Taylor Rogers	SS	Brooks Lee
RP	Cole Sands
RP	Phil Maton	IF	Kyle Farmer
RP	Kody Funderburk	OF	James Outman
RP	Michael Tonkin	PH	Edouard Julien
RP	Brooks Kriske	C2	Jhonny Pereda

A $115 million roster looking something like this wouldn't be terrible come opening day, but would really just setting up for the following year with a good batch of 45 and higher grade prospects in the high minors, competing to take that next step: 

45	Kendry Rojas	50	Jenkins, Walker
50	Connor Prielipp	45	Gonzalez, Gabriel
45	Mick Abel	47	Kaelen Culpepper
45	Marco Raya	45	Ryan Clifford
45	CJ Culpepper	50	Jett Williams
45	Andrew Morris	45	Tanner Schobel
40	Simeon Woods Richardson	40	Chris Suero
		40	Hendry Mendez
		42	Payton Eeles

Brooks Lee and Alan Roden need to take big steps forward in order to avoid being AAAA, but they can still work out to be valuable role players in the majors. 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Maybe Next Year said:

The Twins don't desperately need position players- they desperately need a new manager who can develop the talent we have. We supposedly have the 2nd best farm system in the majors. Why is it when we have been calling up those kids the past 8 years they don't perform at the ML level? Baldelli and staff.

The farm system lacks huge upside players, outside Jenkins and maybe Tait (in A ball.....) and a never healthy EROD. They are highly ranked because they have SO MANY decent to good prospects. 

But, I agree! Baldelli does not seem to be the guy to develop players. I could be wrong, but that's how it looks from here. 

[Mike Sixel]

IF they deal Ryan, I want either an elite C who is in AA or AAA, or an elite OF, or an elite SP in AA or AAA. And then I want two more of those. You can't deal him for less than 3 top 100 prospects, at least one of which needs to be top 20 or so (or two top 50). 

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

The Brewers are on pace to attract 1 Million more fans to the ballpark than we are. As of today they have us by 700,000. New minority owners should understand a better product on the field is how you make money. Joe Ryan will more than pay for himself. Trading him for some future magic beans is a loser in the money making department in my opinion.

How many more fans over the next 2 seasons do you believe the Twins would draw with Joe Ryan making starts as opposed to Joe Ryan not making starts? Let's do the math. Joe Ryan is going to make in the neighborhood of $18 million the next 2 years. Do the math on how he's going to make the Twins more than $18 million in revenue in 2 years.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

IF they deal Ryan, I want either an elite C who is in AA or AAA, or an elite OF, or an elite SP in AA or AAA. And then I want two more of those. You can't deal him for less than 3 top 100 prospects, at least one of which needs to be top 20 or so (or two top 50). 

Garret Crochet got 2 top 100 prospects plus 2 other pieces. That is what the Twins can get for Joe Ryan.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Garret Crochet got 2 top 100 prospects plus 2 other pieces. That is what the Twins can get for Joe Ryan.

I don't know, Ryan has a longer track record......but ok. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't know, Ryan has a longer track record......but ok. 

Crochet got a 6-year, 170 mil deal after that trade. Joe Ryan's track record is all half season successes. He doesn't have any previous year where he's made it through a full season with dominant success. This will be his first if he's able to. And Ryan is 3 years older. 

I love Ryan. I'll be sad to see him go. But he's not worth more than Crochet in trade.

[Doctor Gast]

Catching will be in a very precariuos situation this offseason as I predicted years ago. I like Jeffers & I'd love to extend him to a reasonable contract but let's be realistic. Jeffers hired Boras to be his agent, that means that he wants a real big pay day. Boras doesn't like to sign his clients to extensions, he wants them go into FA. This FO normally would like to try get something for Jeffers, instead of nothing, so under normal situations he'd trade him.. Back in '22 this FO pushed all his chips & future chips on Jeffers. Because of ignorance we have absolutely no MLB-ready catchers to step up even as the 3rd catcher. Falvey loves Jeffers & lets say Jeffers really wants to stay. MN has absolutely no leverage because they have no one, they have hyped him up as a primary catcher. When Falvey really wants to get someone, he always way overpay. It doesn't make sense after all the salaries they have cut, to sign Jeffers to a exorbitant extension. Like Kepler, he has a high value on Jeffers, so I don't think they'll trade Jeffers even if they get a good offer. So it boils down to either signing Jeffers to an exorbitant extension or keeping him for his last year. Priority has always been & still is, to trade for a promising young MLB-ready catcher but now we should have 2 if Jeffers walk for nothing. Which unfortunately could be our best case scenario.

[In My La Z boy]

31 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

How many more fans over the next 2 seasons do you believe the Twins would draw with Joe Ryan making starts as opposed to Joe Ryan not making starts? Let's do the math. Joe Ryan is going to make in the neighborhood of $18 million the next 2 years. Do the math on how he's going to make the Twins more than $18 million in revenue in 2 years.

I'm simply suggesting we field a better team with him. Not really an argument. If we have a good team we make more money. I suggest the good teams make more than the bad teams. This is not an outrageous argument. Put a winner on the field and the fans will support them. We stand a better chance of being better with him. Can we be even better in 4 years without him and the prospects he brings? I don't care. 

[lukeduke1980]

I wonder if another right-sizing adjustment will be coming given poor attendance and understanding that the streaming money is a lot less than the old TV deals.  

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

There are a lot of ways they could look at Ryan and the team. I was just trying to explain that the way that poster used "value" isn't the same as actual cash value like the poster they'd responded to was talking about in the investors getting their money back. 

As for the investors and their view on roster decisions, I'll be surprised and impressed if the Pohlads (Joe especially) are willing to give them a real voice in decisions. Most MLB teams have minority owners. They aren't making the decisions on how the team is run. Hopefully they can be a bit of a guiding force, but there's a reason Derek Jeter isn't a minority owner of the Marlins anymore. The big dogs at the table eat first. It'll be interesting to see how this all progresses.

I should have started that your value explanation was right on.  As a fan, I hope they are more focused on constructing a real contender as opposed to 'cash value".  You have been a proponent of building a team with a legit shot at a WS as opposed to the teams we have had recently that have a decent chance of getting in the playoffs but not much of a chance to go deep.  I am with you in that desire.

[sweetmusicviola16]

imo it is going to take at least 6 years and at or near 200mil to resign Joe Ryan, Joe Pohlad remaining principle owner is not going to do that. Who are we kidding? With him as the owner and Falvey as the head of the FO big spending is not on the horizon. 

[jorgenswest]

They need to get back to 2023 where they had the median payroll. They can contend in 2026 with that commitment from the Pohlad’s. They say they are committed. We need to see it with there pocketbook. Tearing it down will lead to an endless cycle of mediocrity or worse. They have a two year window with Lopez and Ryan. Maximize that window. 

[The Great Hambino]

11 minutes ago, lukeduke1980 said:

I wonder if another right-sizing adjustment will be coming given poor attendance and understanding that the streaming money is a lot less than the old TV deals.  

We're currently in the middle of one

[The Great Hambino]

15 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

I'm simply suggesting we field a better team with him. Not really an argument. If we have a good team we make more money. I suggest the good teams make more than the bad teams. This is not an outrageous argument. Put a winner on the field and the fans will support them. We stand a better chance of being better with him. Can we be even better in 4 years without him and the prospects he brings? I don't care. 

The problem is that a good portion of their revenue is guaranteed regardless of their performance (national media deals) and portions of revenue that aren't will be partially offset through receiving a bigger piece of the revenue sharing pie.  Since what they make is determined by revenue minus costs (you keep ignoring that part), it's pretty easy to see that a cynical bunch like the Pohlads sees cutting costs as a much easier and reliable path to profitability as compared to hoping increased spending will generate that much more revenue.  They have to be a legitimate contender to generate that type of revenue.  They are not the retention of Lopez/Ryan and the reinvestment of Correa's savings away from legitimate contention.

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

They need to get back to 2023 where they had the median payroll. They can contend in 2026 with that commitment from the Pohlad’s. They say they are committed. We need to see it with there pocketbook. Tearing it down will lead to an endless cycle of mediocrity or worse. They have a two year window with Lopez and Ryan. Maximize that window. 

I mean, looking at the FA list, it's hard to see how they spend their way into a much better team.

They aren't signing a long term SS or OF, given their prospects. They aren't signing a 3B or 2B given Lewis and Keaschell. That really leaves 1B and C.....go look at those options!

[In My La Z boy]

2 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

The problem is that a good portion of their revenue is guaranteed regardless of their performance (national media deals) and portions of revenue that aren't will be partially offset through receiving a bigger piece of the revenue sharing pie.  Since what they make is determined by revenue minus costs (you keep ignoring that part), it's pretty easy to see that a cynical bunch like the Pohlads sees cutting costs as a much easier and reliable path to profitability as compared to hoping increased spending will generate that much more revenue.  They have to be a legitimate contender to generate that type of revenue.  They are not the retention of Lopez/Ryan and the reinvestment of Correa's savings away from legitimate contention.

Yes but apparently whatever revenue is guaranteed every year coupled with our revenues are has left us with a $422M dollar debt. This cost cutting strategy has us under water. Time to try something new??? Field a great team maybe???

[The Great Hambino]

4 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Yes but apparently whatever revenue is guaranteed every year coupled with our revenues are has left us with a $422M dollar debt. This cost cutting strategy has us under water. Time to try something new??? Field a great team maybe???

Uhhh .... they've just started the cost cutting thing.  They've been trying to spend relative to their market up until this deadline.  If the debt has truly been accumulated solely through baseball operations (highly dubious), then that's all the more reason (in their cynical eyes) to cut costs and make their profit the way the Pirates have. 

[In My La Z boy]

Just now, The Great Hambino said:

Uhhh .... they've just started the cost cutting thing.  They've been trying to spend relative to their market up until this deadline.  If the debt has truly been accumulated solely through baseball operations (highly dubious), then that's all the more reason (in their cynical eyes) to cut costs and make their profit the way the Pirates have. 

You're killing me 🤣
I am old and want to win again before its over. 1991 was a long time ago.

[The Great Hambino]

Just now, In My La Z boy said:

You're killing me 🤣
I am old and want to win again before its over. 1991 was a long time ago.

Hey, I want them to win just as much as you do!  I'm on the other end of the spectrum, where I was too young to really be able to enjoy 1991 - even though I was the only one in my kindergarten class to sit and watch the victory parade on the TV our teacher wheeled into the classroom.  So at least you got to fully experience a couple of championships!

I just don't see a realistic chance of them competing next year.  It would be a longshot even if they brought the payroll back to 2024-25 levels.  So I'd rather see them angle for more realistic contention a couple years down the road.  Maybe by then the new CBA reshuffles the deck and they hit 2028 ready to truly roll.   That's my hope, anyway, for all Twins fans