Why Gabriel Gonzalez is the Hitting Prospect the Twins Have Been Waiting For

[DocBauer]

He's not a great athlete, but he's also not a 230lb plodder either. And he's got a good arm. Still oy 21yo I'd like to think he can develop in to at least a solid, average OF.

My biggest concern is "Miranda contact disease" potential. Gonzalez has lowered his K% and raised his BB%. That's awesome and an indicator of future success. But in the past, one of his issues was swinging at everything because he had the ability to make contact, albeit not always good contact. Similar to Miranda in that regard. Based on what he's done this year, and how much he's improved, it sounds like he found the antidote.

He's probably got 20HR power. But if he keeps smashing line drives and 30 plus doubles with HR totals in the teens, that's still really good.

Does he have to be protected this offseason? Yes or no might affect whether we see him with the Twins this season. But I'd have no problem letting him play a couple weeks for the Saints since he just got there, and then bring him up for September to help jumpstart his 2026.

*Gonzalez, Keaschall, Culpepper, Rodriguez, and Jenkins all ready and up by July 2026 at the latest? 🤞

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

He's not a great athlete, but he's also not a 230lb plodder either. And he's got a good arm. Still oy 21yo I'd like to think he can develop in to at least a solid, average OF.

My biggest concern is "Miranda contact disease" potential. Gonzalez has lowered his K% and raised his BB%. That's awesome and an indicator of future success. But in the past, one of his issues was swinging at everything because he had the ability to make contact, albeit not always good contact. Similar to Miranda in that regard. Based on what he's done this year, and how much he's improved, it sounds like he found the antidote.

He's probably got 20HR power. But if he keeps smashing line drives and 30 plus doubles with HR totals in the teens, that's still really good.

Does he have to be protected this offseason? Yes or no might affect whether we see him with the Twins this season. But I'd have no problem letting him play a couple weeks for the Saints since he just got there, and then bring him up for September to help jumpstart his 2026.

*Gonzalez, Keaschall, Culpepper, Rodriguez, and Jenkins all ready and up by July 2026 at the latest? 🤞

Yes, he'll need to be protected this offseason.

[Chembry]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

That's a 5 game sample. I don't think it's the end of the world that he isn't called up, and don't expect him to be called up at all this year, but if he had a 2.000 OPS after 5 games would you be calling for him to be called up because he solved AAA? I don't think pointing to a .558 OPS after 5 games is proof that he'd be overwhelmed by major league pitching. Luke Keaschall never tore AAA apart either. .727 OPS when he first got called up. .693 OPS during his rehab. Career .710 OPS in that hitter's league and I don't see anyone suggesting he should be sent back down.

Malpractice is an incredibly strong word to use because of a 5 game sample size. Did you watch those 5 games? Or are you basing the idea that he'd get his butt kicked in MLB off of his 5 game OPS of .558? If he homers today and his OPS skyrockets beyond anything Keachall ever did should we call him up? 

Again, I'm not saying it's the end of the world that he isn't in the majors, and I don't expect him to see the majors this year. But the certainty with which you're saying he'd "get his butt kicked in MLB" and calling it malpractice to call him up right now based on a 5 game OPS is pretty wild. There's plenty of 21-year-olds who've skipped AAA altogether and succeeded in MLB. Many even had worse AA numbers than Gonzalez.

Agreed. There are a few recent players that skipped AAA or had very limited time in AAA that come to mind:

Zach Neto:  in 2022 went from A+ to AA playing only 37 games total between those levels. In 2023 played 11 games between AA and AAA before getting promoted to MLB.  One might say he struggled a bit at the MLB level in 2023 hitting .225 with a .685 OPS, but now paying dividends.  He is hitting .286 this year with 16 HR and .778 OPS. 

Nick Kurtz:  Played only 32 games in minors total.  He was crushing AAA pitching though. 

Bobby Witt Jr: played 63 games total at AAA

Julio Rodriguez: Skipped AAA altogether

CJ Abrams: played 38 games total at AAA

 

[KirbyDome89]

6 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Said it at the time and I'll say it again, that was a great trade. An expiring contract and Polanco hit .213/.296/.355 in that final year under contract. To get a top 100 prospect for 1 (awful) year of Polanco was highway robbery. 

The Twins were banking on DeSclafani in the rotation and Topa in the pen last year. Neither contributed at all. Gonzalez was also pretty bad at AA. If you're excited about 4 months this year, cool, but I'd pump the brakes on "highway robbery," talk. 

[Charleo]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Maybe we can retire conversations from the past. The ifs and what ifs and thens are not relevant to a discussion of whether Gabriel Gonzalez can be a guy the Twins turn to in a corner outfield position as soon as next year.

Maybe we can also retire the conversations from guys who are only on here to give others a hard time about their post.  That is considerably more tired than the post you are criticizing....

.  

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, Chembry said:

Agreed. There are a few recent players that skipped AAA or had very limited time in AAA that come to mind:

Zach Neto:  in 2022 went from A+ to AA playing only 37 games total between those levels. In 2023 played 11 games between AA and AAA before getting promoted to MLB.  One might say he struggled a bit at the MLB level in 2023 hitting .225 with a .685 OPS, but now paying dividends.  He is hitting .286 this year with 16 HR and .778 OPS. 

Nick Kurtz:  Played only 32 games in minors total.  He was crushing AAA pitching though. 

Bobby Witt Jr: played 63 games total at AAA

Julio Rodriguez: Skipped AAA altogether

CJ Abrams: played 38 games total at AAA

 

Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio last year. Michael Harris II. Dansby Swanson. Andrew Benintendi. Nolan Schanuel. Off the top of my head.

Varying degrees of success. But station to station. Level by level prospect development is not the only way to do it.

[tony&rodney]

13 minutes ago, Charleo said:

Maybe we can also retire the conversations from guys who are only on here to give others a hard time about their post.  That is considerably more tired than the post you are criticizing....

.  

You are off topic.

What do you think about Gabriel Gonzalez? Do you think he is the hitting prospect the Twins have been looking for from the right handed batter's box?

[Paul Walerius]

11 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Now, I see what the Twins saw in trading for Gonzalez. I have claimed he was a bust. 

He has to go on the 40 man roster so I guess he could be called up in September. I'm betting not though. Sure would like to hear, "and his defense continues to improve." If his defense is at least equal to Larnach and his bat is better than his, we have something here.

I can see a new regime going with Culpepper at SS, Jenkins in the OF and Gonzalez at DH/OF to start 2026 (Rodriguez in the mix if he ever gets healthy. The Falvey regime, not so much.

I think Culpepper will be late next year if at all.   He is doing very well at AA but has not reached AAA.   There are too many in front of him yet.

*That could change if they trade a guy or two (Julien, Miranda) in the offseason. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

7 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The Twins were banking on DeSclafani in the rotation and Topa in the pen last year. Neither contributed at all. Gonzalez was also pretty bad at AA. If you're excited about 4 months this year, cool, but I'd pump the brakes on "highway robbery," talk. 

Polanco's OPS was 35 points better than Julien's last year and he was one of the worst defenders in MLB. He was a negative asset.

I don't agree they were "counting on" DeSclefani. He was a #5 at most.

Gabby was just about average at High-A last year and has more PAs this year with a top-30 OPS among qualified batters above rookie ball. Not sure why you're minimizing what he's shown.

[FlyingFinn]

2 hours ago, Paul Walerius said:

I think Culpepper will be late next year if at all.   He is doing very well at AA but has not reached AAA.   There are too many in front of him yet.

*That could change if they trade a guy or two (Julien, Miranda) in the offseason. 

Only Brooks Lee is ahead of Culpepper as future major league SS's at this point. And Lee can play 2B and 3B.

[Paul Walerius]

6 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Only Brooks Lee is ahead of Culpepper as future major league SS's at this point. And Lee can play 2B and 3B.

Keaschall, Julien, Clemens, Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Gasper, Martin (to an extent).  I get that Lee and Culpepper are the SS depth but there are a lot more pieces.  I don't think Lee is going anywhere so he could shift to 2B or 3B as you say which means Lewis, Keaschall, and Julien need to be moved around.   

I just don't see it happening unless someone is moved or injured.  It's a very good problem to have.  

Jenkins is the same situation, Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, E. Rod, Roden, Outman, Fedko, Gonzalez McCusker all potentially ahead of him

[Bodie]

18 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I would not be saying call him up if he had crushed those first 5 games either; I think you've read and commented on enough of my posts to a) know better, and 2) not put words in my mouth. GG started this season in A-ball after having an unimpressive season where he battled injuries. He's already on his 3rd level this season, having earned 2 very deserving promotions. What's the benefit to throwing him in the fire one more level up at 21? Appeasing the fanbase? They can do that by selling the team.

Keaschall is a reasonable comp, but notably did NOT jump from A-ball to MLB in the same season. And even without the surgery, it seems unlikely that he would have skipped past AAA entirely in 2024. We'll never know if the Twins would have tried to call him up during the collapse last season if he'd been healthy, but at least going for the playoffs might have made it justifiable. Why do it now? The argument for calling up GG right now mostly seems to be "screw Roden, Gasper, Larnach, Outman, etc I wanna move on to 2026 now!" rather than what might actually be best for his development.

How dare you?!?!

Lucid?  Rational?  This is a fan(atic) site!  

If you don't admit he is already a perennial all-star held back by Falvey incompetence and/or Pohlad cheapness nobody will/can believe you!

No matter how right you are...

[Bodie]

8 hours ago, Paul Walerius said:

Keaschall, Julien, Clemens, Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Gasper, Martin (to an extent).  I get that Lee and Culpepper are the SS depth but there are a lot more pieces.  I don't think Lee is going anywhere so he could shift to 2B or 3B as you say which means Lewis, Keaschall, and Julien need to be moved around.   

I just don't see it happening unless someone is moved or injured.  It's a very good problem to have.  

Jenkins is the same situation, Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, E. Rod, Roden, Outman, Fedko, Gonzalez McCusker all potentially ahead of him

McCusker... thanks for the laughs. Needed that!

[Bodie]

9 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Polanco's OPS was 35 points better than Julien's last year and he was one of the worst defenders in MLB. He was a negative asset.

I don't agree they were "counting on" DeSclefani. He was a #5 at most.

Gabby was just about average at High-A last year and has more PAs this year with a top-30 OPS among qualified batters above rookie ball. Not sure why you're minimizing what he's shown.

Good thing Julien is your comp for him.  Keeps him from falling from "one of the worst defenders" any further...

[Bodie]

18 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The point of the 2.000 OPS question was to point out the lack of usefulness of the .558 OPS number. You used it as an argument to show he wasn't ready and would "get his butt kicked in MLB." I wasn't putting words in your mouth, I was countering your argument with an OPS on the other side of the spectrum to show that his current OPS should have no bearing on anything as it's proof of nothing.

The benefit is that if that's the level he's ready for that's the level he should be at. What's the argument for keeping him in AAA? He started in A+ ball so he shouldn't go further than AAA? Who cares where he started? What does that have to do with his current abilities? I'm legitimately asking. My argument for calling GG up absolutely isn't "screw Roden, Gasper, Larnach, Outman, etc I wanna move on to 2026 now!" It is that an argument can be made that calling him up to get him MLB experience in a lost season IS what's best for his development. I wouldn't call him up now necessarily, my argument has been to call him up in September. 

My argument is against the idea that his current AAA OPS means anything at all. My argument is against the idea that him starting the season in A+ should have any bearing on his callup at all. My argument is against the idea that his age should matter at all. None of that should matter. What is best for his long-term development? A very reasonable argument can be made that getting him MLB experience this season to allow him to have an offseason to make adjustments to what he learns and come back as best prepared to challenge for an opening day spot next year is what's best for his development. This default that everybody needs to go level by level and hit some magic number of ABs or OPS or whatever is nonsense. Plenty of other teams completely ignore that. The Twins seem to have convinced people that that's the only way it can be done, though.

Still waiting for Miguel Sano's MiLB numbers to translate....

And those were actually spectacular stats, across the board.  And added such tantalizing morsels such a season with more walks than Ks (Iirc) at high A.

[jmlease1]

48 minutes ago, Bodie said:

Still waiting for Miguel Sano's MiLB numbers to translate....

And those were actually spectacular stats, across the board.  And added such tantalizing morsels such a season with more walks than Ks (Iirc) at high A.

Bad comp. I know Sano is persona non grata with a lot of Twins fans, but before the injuries ruined him, Sano was a good hitter and put up impactful numbers. His value was limited because of his poor defense and his career was ruined by injuries (yes, much more than the weight) but his minor league numbers translated into an impact hitter...for a while.

[Bodie]

3 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Bad comp. I know Sano is persona non grata with a lot of Twins fans, but before the injuries ruined him, Sano was a good hitter and put up impactful numbers. His value was limited because of his poor defense and his career was ruined by injuries (yes, much more than the weight) but his minor league numbers translated into an impact hitter...for a while.

Even at his best, his output had to be considered disappointing based on what was expected. His "eye", a supposed asset never made the majors. He was never the quality contact hitter he showed in the minors. 

A quality MLB player can still be a disappointment. If Sano was ever a quality overall player can be debated.  What really cannot is that he never approached the heights that most baseball people saw for him.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Bodie said:

Still waiting for Miguel Sano's MiLB numbers to translate....

And those were actually spectacular stats, across the board.  And added such tantalizing morsels such a season with more walks than Ks (Iirc) at high A.

I don't know what your point is.

@jmlease1 pointed out well that Sano's numbers did translate. And to respond to your claim that his "'eye' never made it to the majors", I'll just point out that he had a career 11.6% walk rate. MLB average is roughly 8%. His "eye" absolutely "made it to the majors," fans just didn't like that he got fooled by pitches just like every other hitter in baseball history. He didn't make it to the Hall of Fame, but Miguel Sano was a very good major league hitter.

But, even if he didn't meet expectations, or if he hadn't been a good hitter, or completely failed, I still don't get your point. Prospects fail? Is that your point? Of course they do. What does that have to do with Gabriel Gonzalez and the post you quoted? Are you suggesting we shouldn't call him up this year because Miguel Sano didn't meet expectations? I mean, if your argument is that the odds are against Gonzalez, or any prospect, then I agree. That is true. You should always take the under on a prospect because the odds are always that they'll fail because the vast majority of them do. But that doesn't mean we should just never call them up. 

I've never claimed GG is going to be a star. In fact, quite the opposite. I've been one of the more "realistic" posters about him. He has limited defensive abilities (at this point), no speed, limited power, but big time bat to ball skills. That's a difficult profile to build a career around. The odds are definitely against him. But that doesn't mean the best option for his development can't be calling him up in September to get his first cup of coffee in the bigs. I'm very confused by your post and how it relates to what I'd said in my post that you quoted.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Polanco's OPS was 35 points better than Julien's last year and he was one of the worst defenders in MLB. He was a negative asset.

I don't agree they were "counting on" DeSclefani. He was a #5 at most.

Gabby was just about average at High-A last year and has more PAs this year with a top-30 OPS among qualified batters above rookie ball. Not sure why you're minimizing what he's shown.

He wasn't when they traded him, and he's bounced back this year. Getting zero from Topa and DeSclafani doesn't somehow push the deal in favor of the Twins. 

Idk how planning to hand somebody the 5th spot in the rotation isn't counting on them but ok. 

Was last season not rough? He was by all accounts a butcher in the field. He didn't hit for power and it's not like he was an on base machine. That's not a great combo for a guy who profiles as a DH. He was almost an afterthought as far as prospects go entering the season. He's had a nice run for 4 months. That's not minimizing anything. All I said was pump the brakes on acting like this swap is some kind of highway robbery...

[Paul Walerius]

12 hours ago, Bodie said:

McCusker... thanks for the laughs. Needed that!

Who did they call up today for Wallner?   

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

On 8/9/2025 at 9:51 AM, KirbyDome89 said:

He wasn't when they traded him, and he's bounced back this year. Getting zero from Topa and DeSclafani doesn't somehow push the deal in favor of the Twins. 

Idk how planning to hand somebody the 5th spot in the rotation isn't counting on them but ok. 

Was last season not rough? He was by all accounts a butcher in the field. He didn't hit for power and it's not like he was an on base machine. That's not a great combo for a guy who profiles as a DH. He was almost an afterthought as far as prospects go entering the season. He's had a nice run for 4 months. That's not minimizing anything. All I said was pump the brakes on acting like this swap is some kind of highway robbery...

Polanco has had 2 above average months in a Mariners uniform. He was the only player in the return and was a negative asset for the Mariners last season - the only year he was under contract. As an expiring contract, he really didn't have much value. 

Gabby was a slightly above league average hitter in a pitcher friendly league least year, and he significantly improved compared to his time in High-A in the Mariners system in '23. His defense was never a calling card, but a year in which he was dealing with a lower back issue doesn't automatically relegate him to DH unless you're just assuming the worst possible outcome.

Once again, he's played more this year than he did last year. Which sample size means more?

When grading the trade, I think it's fair to compare the received values against each other. The Twins have received about a season of decent, albeit low leverage, relief pitching and a top 100 prospect for a replacement/below replacement season of a middle infielder. Something for nothing is a win in my book. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

On 8/9/2025 at 6:42 AM, Bodie said:

Good thing Julien is your comp for him.  Keeps him from falling from "one of the worst defenders" any further...

Julien was an intentional comp, and he was even worse in the field than Julien was. And he's largely been relegated to DH this year. 

[Bodie]

11 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Julien was an intentional comp, and he was even worse in the field than Julien was. And he's largely been relegated to DH this year. 

And all it took for the worst 2B to be on a roster was trading half the roster...

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

12 hours ago, Bodie said:

And all it took for the worst 2B to be on a roster was trading half the roster...

I'm not sure what you aren't understanding here. 

[Major League Ready]

On 8/8/2025 at 1:19 PM, DocBauer said:

*Gonzalez, Keaschall, Culpepper, Rodriguez, and Jenkins all ready and up by July 2026 at the latest? 🤞

That's exciting.  It's also probably part of the reason they decided to rebuild or you might call it a retool given the expected timeframe.  Something similar is likely to happen on the pitching side as well.

[Twinkie in Deutschland]

I like his prospects and since the team is starting the rebuild and youth movement at the same time, I would say why not? We have nothing to lose at this point, even as we try to push for a playoff run with what we have. 

[KirbyDome89]

On 8/11/2025 at 4:59 PM, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Polanco has had 2 above average months in a Mariners uniform. He was the only player in the return and was a negative asset for the Mariners last season - the only year he was under contract. As an expiring contract, he really didn't have much value. 

Gabby was a slightly above league average hitter in a pitcher friendly league least year, and he significantly improved compared to his time in High-A in the Mariners system in '23. His defense was never a calling card, but a year in which he was dealing with a lower back issue doesn't automatically relegate him to DH unless you're just assuming the worst possible outcome.

Once again, he's played more this year than he did last year. Which sample size means more?

When grading the trade, I think it's fair to compare the received values against each other. The Twins have received about a season of decent, albeit low leverage, relief pitching and a top 100 prospect for a replacement/below replacement season of a middle infielder. Something for nothing is a win in my book. 

You keep repeating this, despite the fact that it isn't true....

Both sample sizes matter. I'm not sure what's controversial about that....

Was Gonzalez a top 100 prospect or are you stretching that too? I know he wasn't close to being a consensus pick for those lists. I'll say it again, a prospect who has contributed nothing, and a RP you can only trust in low leverage (and missed an entire season) + an injured SP for Polanco was "highway robbery,"....

[P Meyer]

On 8/8/2025 at 11:47 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

Let’s see how the sale works out.  I’m in the “I”ll believe it when I see it camp” and wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pohlads hold on through the next CBA.

If that’s the case, the $1000MM payroll metric goes to $60-75MM.  Thus, Ryan and Lopez are gone this offseason and Jeffers is gone when at least one of the two catching prospects is ready.  Ober, Larnach, meh.  Ideally Lewis is someone we could grow around.

IMO, it is most likely we see Lopez, Ober, and Larnach dealt. That prepares for a strike, and still keep Ryan who they might then extend.