Louis Varland Has a Meatball Problem

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

In his first season as a full-time reliever, Louis Varland has flashed good swing-and-miss stuff. It's convinced Rocco Baldelli to deploy him more often out of the bullpen than any other Twin this year. But even as his strikeout rate soars, an old weakness has carried over from his days as a starter. Varland is leaving too many pitches in the middle of the plate, and opponents aren’t missing their invitations to tee off.

From Starter to High-Leverage Reliever  
After splitting time between the rotation and bullpen the last two seasons, Varland has settled into a true reliever’s role in 2025. Through 15 appearances, Baldelli has leaned on him in more games than any other pitcher on the staff, using Varland in a variety of situations. The move makes sense: Varland’s four-seamer is up near 98 mph on short stints, and his secondary pitches play with added life when he doesn’t have to pace himself over multiple innings.

Perhaps the most encouraging sign has been his strikeout rate. Varland is punching out 32.8 percent of batters faced, ranking in the top 8 percent of the league's hurlers. That surge in whiffs has come largely on the changeup and knuckle-curve, both of which gain intensity when thrown in shorter bursts.  

The Meatball Problem  
All of that swing-and-miss prowess can go for naught, though, when Varland loses the edges of the zone.  Baseball Savant classifies pitches down the heart of the plate as “meatballs,” and for his career, Varland has served up 9.8% of his offerings right over the middle. That total is significantly above the MLB average of roughly 7.3%. Those mistakes have been punished: meatballs are prime targets for high-exit velocity contact and home runs. So, how has Varland been impacted by meatballs this season?

Hard Contact Metrics  

• Pull AIR % (Pulled Airborne Batted Balls): Hitters are pulling the ball in the air 25.7 percent of the time against Varland, up from roughly 18 percent in his starter years. 
• Average Exit Velocity: His opponents’ average exit velocity is 93.1 mph, well above the league average, and in the worst 2 percent of pitchers.
• Hard Hit %: A whopping 62.9 percent of balls in play against him qualify as “hard-hit” (95 mph+), placing him in the bottom 1 percent of MLB arms.

These figures underline the danger of meatballs: when he leaves a pitch waist-high, hitters punish it.

Spotlight on the Changeup  
Varland’s changeup has been especially problematic. In 21 pitches thrown this season, he’s yielded a 1.667 slugging percentage, including two home runs and a double. He is only throwing this pitch against left-handed batters, and it comes with the caveat of being a small sample size. However, a changeup hung over the heart of the plate plays like a batting practice fastball, and opposing hitters have taken full advantage. A glance at his Statcast zone map shows a cluster of mislocated changeups right down the middle.

Path Forward: Execution at the Edges
If Varland is to take the next step as a late-inning weapon, his command must improve. Specifically:  

1. Fastball Location: While his heater can touch 100 mph, too many end up middle-middle. Working more around the edges and elevating more within the zone will keep hitters honest and reduce the risk of giving up power.
2. Changeup Refinement: Better tunneling and late fade on the changeup could turn meatballs into chase-inducing off-speed pitches. Emphasizing release consistency and disguising arm speed will be key. So, too, though, will be generating more depth on the offering than he's managed so far in 2025. In this image, the red line connects the movement coordinates for his 2025 fastball and changeup, while the blue one connects his 2024 offerings. This year, the changeup has more run, but less depth, leading to more pitches left up.

Even with the meatball issue, Varland’s 3.21 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 14 innings suggest that the raw stuff is plus-plus. His two seasons of relief work have shown he can handle high-leverage innings, and the strikeout upside is tantalizing. If Twins pitching coaches can help him tighten up the zone and avoid center-cut mistakes, Varland could become one of the most valuable relief options in the back end of the bullpen. 

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Will Varland be able to solve his meatball problem? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[jkcarew]

He does, but I’m fine with his results so far this year. I don’t expect he can get a ton better, and I would just as soon he stays aggressive. Maybe not a good candidate to bring in with runners on…which I don’t think has been done much with him.

[Sjoski]

If Varland has a meatball problem, then Alcala’s hosting an all-you-can-eat buffet.

[KirbyDome89]

Varland looks like the same time bomb he has always been. 

Multiple middle/middle FBs today. It just happens that the bottom of Cleveland's equally putrid lineup couldn't do anything with them. 

[bean5302]

Louis Varland's stuff: 120-125+ would be 60 grade.  Varland's definitely far short of plus-plus stuff. You can see the Location+ score is very high (very few pitchers are in that 105+ area).



While the author postulates Varland has a meatball problem, Louis has to live in the zone because hitters won't chase his offerings outside of the zone because his pitches don't move well. If Varland could hit his spots perfectly, he might be more effective, but pitchers with elite command who never miss their spots don't exist. If Varland misses, his pitch winds up middle middle and gets clobbered or outside the zone for a ball because hitters rarely swing at his stuff out of the zone.



This means Varland's primary weapon is the speed delta between his pitches. He lives and dies based on whether or not the hitter guesses the correct pitch since the fastball, sinker and changeup all move very similarly.



In my opinion, Varland is getting pretty much the absolute best out of the stuff he's got.

[karcherd]

9 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Varland looks like the same time bomb he has always been. 

Multiple middle/middle FBs today. It just happens that the bottom of Cleveland's equally putrid lineup couldn't do anything with them. 

Today he threw one fastball to the 2, 3, and 4 hitters.  He threw mostly his sweeper and changeup.  This may be true for other games but not for today.  He looked good and retired easily two of their top hitters.

[mikelink45]

We might want to avoid using him every other day.  I like what he has accomplished, but Duran has a fill the bases problem, Jax has an explosion problem, Topa doesn't open or close well.  Alcala throws batting practice.  RP are supposed to throw multiple times a week and respond to Roccos call to the pen problem.  But let's boil it down to two things - SP go longer, hitters drive is some runs (not just big explosions once in a while)

[KirbyDome89]

4 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Today he threw one fastball to the 2, 3, and 4 hitters.  He threw mostly his sweeper and changeup.  This may be true for other games but not for today.  He looked good and retired easily two of their top hitters.

Jones, Hedges, Kwan. That's Cleveland's 8,9,1 in the lineup.

12 pitches, 9 of which were fastballs. I don't recall an actual changeup being thrown. 

What game were you watching?

[Aerodeliria]

I disagree with the premise, referring to what others have mentioned. In addition, when he coughed up the 9th inning homer, Vasquez did not call for one fastball---three straight off-speed pitches in a row. Why not call for a fastball? If he can touch 100, let him throw it. In other words, the blame cannot only be dumped on the pitcher but the strategy itself and that also comes from higher up the chain. I'm perfectly fine with Varland. I think he's the least of our problems...

[Doctor Gast]

IMO, his biggest problem with the meatball was when he was a SP. Now that he's a RP he can execute better, he's perfectly fine, That said I don't think he's quite a closer yet & can expect some hiccups there.

[IndianaTwin]

I have a meatball problem too. I notice it each time I step on to the scale. 

[Bodie]

He throws hard, Good thing.  There are very few men who can throw 100 mph - no matter what. There are far fewer who can pitch at 100 mph.

Louis Varland still sits in that second category. His control in the zone is poor.  He pitches are seemingly easy to pick up.  If he didn't have that magical 100 velocity (and wasn't a native son) this conversation would sound very similar to ones about Alcala.  

Don't give up on the arm, but work on the pitching. He isn't far away from being a quality bullpen arm, but the margin for error is small for pitchers,  and smaller still without good control. 

[David Maro]

It's time that he learns to be a pitcher not a thrower. He believes he can throw his pitches past hitters. That mentality is fine if you can locate the pitches,he can't. I remember a pitcher in the past who thought the same named Berrios. Until that day happens he will be watching hits going into the seats.

[LambchoP]

Both Varland and Alcala have great stuff, specifically their fastballs, they just can't seem to locate well enough hence the hard hit rate and home runs. You can't teach control and command. You either have it or you don't. Varland still has potential as we've seen from some of his dominant outings. Alcala has no business being on a major league mound and I don't understand why they haven't tried to clear waivers and send him down or DFA him completely. There has to be a better option. It's a shame we have up on Blewitt, he was doing great for us. Tonkin has been getting rocked in his minors rehab.....so much for best pen in baseball lol. Not even top half from what I've seen so far :(