American League Central Preview: Cleveland Guardians

[Matthew Lenz]

The Cleveland Guardians will look to repeat as American League Central champions for the first time since 2017 and 2018. That seems rather unlikely after the loss of a couple of key contributors, though. What can we expect from them this season?

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

Revisiting 2024
In 2024, the Guardians won their fifth division crown in nine seasons, with 92 wins under first-year manager Stephen Vogt. They earned themselves a bye in the AL Wild Card round, but after winning a fun series against the Detroit Tigers in the Division Series, the New York Yankees made easy work of them in the American League Championship Series. An organization that’s long been known for their pitching development deployed a starting rotation that fell short of that standard, ranking in the bottom third in many categories.

On the other hand, their bullpen transcended the standard. They were arguably the best relief corps in baseball. At the plate, their lineup was top-heavy, led by the usual suspects (José Ramírez, Josh Naylor, and Steven Kwan) and surprising production from David Fry (128 OPS+) and Will Brennan (97 OPS+). Unfortunately, after that, the offensive output was pretty bleak, led by second basemen Andrés Giménez who produced an 82 OPS+ and is no longer with the team. Will their starting rotation return to form? Can their offense survive losing fan favorite and slugger Naylor? Let’s dive in.

The Rotation
As was the case last year (and will be the case for years to come), Tanner Bibee headlines the rotation for the Guardians. The 25-year-old had a solid 3.56 FIP and 20.1% K-BB rate in 2024, and PECOTA projects more of the same this season. Behind him, they’ll start the season with Ben Lively, Gavin Williams, Luis L.L. Oritz, and Triston McKenzie, with Williams being the only one of those projected to be average or better. They’re anticipating help, in the form of former ace Shane Bieber returning from Tommy John surgery sometime during the season. They also made a sneaky move by signing former Baltimore Orioles ace John Means to a one-year, incentive-laden deal, although he’s not expected to return until August at the earliest. Foor what was formerly a deep pitching pipeline, there isn’t much for help behind the seven names listed above if things go sideways; the bullpen is going to need to carry the pitching staff.

The Bullpen
Living up to their reputation, the bullpen is once again projected to be very good. It may fall short of “elite”, and may not be the best in the division, but it features six players who are projected to be above-average contributors. The group is headlined by one of the best closers in the history of baseball, Emmanuel Clase, and offseason acquisition Paul Sewald (coupled with 2024 standouts Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis) figures to bridge the gap between him and the low-leverage relievers. Of that group, Tim Herrin and Andrew Walters show the depth of the bullpen, as they are projected for above-average seasons despite being one of the first options to relieve a starter. More than in years past, this group will need to carry the pitching staff if the Guardians hope to play baseball in October.

The Infield
The Naylor name lives on for the sixth consecutive season, but it will be backstop Bo Naylor carrying the figurative torch, as Josh was sent to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The 25-year-old catcher has struggled at the plate, especially with contact, which is also the case for his backup, Austin Hedges. While Naylor's one of the best framers in the game, his defense overall grades out pretty poorly. That said, he's still developing and past scouting reports were pretty high on the offensive profile and thought the defense would be passable. We’ll see if he can make strides in 2025.

The Guardians will have new faces on the right side of the diamond, as fan favorite and former Minnesota Twins first baseman Carlos Santana will be replacing the elder Naylor brother. The 39-year-old looks to continue his resurgence after a Gold Glove performance and his best offensive output since 2019. For what it's worth, PECOTA projects him to produce slightly above the league average. He’ll be backed by Kyle Manzardo, who will serve as the team's primary DH and is projected to be a slightly above-average producer at the plate, too. Replacing the Gold Glove winner Giménez at the keystone will be some mix of Juan Brito, Angel Martinez, Gabriel Arias, Daniel Schneeman, and maybe even 2024 top pick Travis Bazzana. Everyone but Brito is projected to produce well below average at the plate, and even the former top-100 prospect (Brito) is projected for a 90 DRC+. To make matters worse, none of those players provide plus defense. This is still a very young group, with Schneeman being the elder statesman at 28 years old. Like catcher, it's another spot in the lineup where the Guardians need their player development to come through.

On the left side of the infield are two players with plus gloves, in Brayan Rocchio and their superstar, Ramírez. Rocchio, who is just 24 years old, will get the lion's share of the work at shortstop, with Arias acting as the primary backup. Like the group of second basemen, Rocchio is projected to produce well below average at the plate, but at least he provides solid defense that saw him accrue a Fielding Run Value of 4 last year. We’re very familiar with Ramírez, who in 169 games against the Twins has a career .791 OPS with 24 home runs. The 32-year-old has received MVP votes in eight of 11 professional seasons, including five top-five finishes, and is projected to produce more of the same in 2025. The Guardians are young up the middle; they lost quite a bit when Giménez was traded. The vets of the infield will need to carry this group on both sides of the ball.

The Outfield
Kwan won a Gold Glove in 2024 while carrying a 124 OPS+, and is projected for more of the same in 2025. Trade deadline acquisition, Lane Thomas, will work as the primary center fielder and has a rather uninspiring profile. His arm and speed are his only plus tools, but he's largely graded out pretty poorly defensively and is projected to produce slightly worse than average at the plate. He has low OBP skills but decent pop. Right field will be a lot like second base, where many players will contribute, but Brennan and Jhonkensy Noel are projected to be the two primary options. Brennan doesn't have one standout skill, but is solid across the board. Noel, nicknamed “Big Christmas”, has a plus power tool, with an aggressive approach at the plate. There isn't much depth behind the four names listed above, so an injury would likely open the door for top prospect Chase DeLauter to make his big-league debut sometime in 2025.

Summary
It's pretty clear to see why PECOTA sees an 11-win drop from 2024 to 2025. The losses of Naylor and Giménez are going to be felt, especially at the plate. While the bullpen remains good, the rotation is surrounded by uncertainty and there's not a lot of optimism they’ll improve much from 2024. While 2025 may not be their year, they are carrying quite a few players in the mid- or early 20s, and have one of the better farm systems in baseball. The ability for the team to remain competitive and possibly become contenders in the near future will hinge on their player development staff, but I wouldn't expect them to really be a threat to the Twins in 2025.

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What are your projections for the Guardians? Do you think their young talent can come through? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I kept waiting for the Guardians to fall off last season and it never quite happened. On paper, the roster isn't as good as it was in 2024 and I expect the bullpen, which at times was historically dominant, will experience a decline. I'm thinking they fall somewhere around 80 wins.

[chpettit19]

As always with Cleveland, how will the youngsters perform? Can Manzardo make up for the loss of Naylor? Can DeLauter get then stay healthy (shockingly the Twins aren't the only team who has big time prospects with health concerns) and live up to his potential? Can Bazzana jump to the bigs at some point in his first full season (oh the horrors of a prospect debuting without hundreds of upper minors ABs!) and provide a spark?

The Guardians will do what they always do. They'll start with the guys they hope will be good and then they'll start cycling through the rest of their options until they find the combination that "has it" that year. They'll play with energy. They'll bring a bunch of filthy guys out of the pen. And they'll make you play quality baseball to beat them.

Jose Ramirez is a top 5ish player in baseball. Steven Kwan is star if he maintains his power gains from last year (how dare a team teach a speedy contact hitter to add some power to his game! Just let him be who he is!). Clase and Smith may be the best 1-2 pen punch in baseball. Clase-Smith-Gaddis may be the best 1-2-3 pen punch in baseball. What can the rest of the roster do? My line for Cleveland is always right around 85 wins. They can go +/-10 from there, but they're always a preseason 85 win team for me. They're so hard to predict because that's just the nature of young players and they always have a heavy dose of young players. They have talent, but they're volatile. They're going to come out fighting every time they step on the field, though. And Ramirez is a treat to watch.

[bean5302]

Yeah, the 2024 Guardians make no sense on paper.

Projections like the Guardians to win 84ish games this year. I wasn't impressed with the Guardians rotation prior to last year and I'm less impressed with it this year. I do think Bieber is on track for a June/July return to the mound, but I'm not convinced he'll be the weapon he once was. Now entering his age 30 season, Bieber saw a decline in velo from 94.3mph in his age 25 season of 2020 down 3mph to 91.5mph from 2022-2023 finishing at age 28. A brief velo spike back to 92.5 at age 29 in 2024 was followed by a torn UCL. The Guardians need Bieber to return to elite form. If he does and he's back in June, the team might be a lot more of a danger.

They've got what looks to be an elite 1-2 punch in the bullpen with Smith and Clase, and then a bunch of projected mediocre to riff-raff arms, though a few of those guys got excellent results despite having FIPs which suggested they were just going to be adequate. Forecasting so much regression is questionable. Projection models don't like the exceptionally low BABIP generated by many of the Guardians relievers to be sustainable. Have to see on that.

When it comes to the bats, their RISP results are not going to return this year. It's not to say the Guardians are going to have a "bad" lineup, just that I don't expect them to be good, either.

Then there is the Pythagorean results which helped the Guardians win a ton of games they really shouldn't have overall, beyond things like BABIP and RISP luck.

[Karbo]

I've learned over the last several years to never under estimate Cleveland. They are a royal pain in the butt for the Twins it seems.

[tony&rodney]

The loss of Gimenez may hurt at second base and the starting rotation seems to have questions. However, there is a fair amount of talent on the roster. The younger players could take major steps forward this season, even with DeLauter out for 12+ weeks. While it may be difficult to project any of the AL Central teams, Cleveland nearly always plays fundamental baseball and despite the thoughts from some folks that these don't amount to much it makes sense to me that Cleveland is the favorite to win the division in some quarters.

[Road trip]

Are there questions, certainly.

Will Cleveland inexplicably continue to develop quality starting pitchers?  Likely.

I'll be watching to see how "Big Christmas" Noel continues to develop.  He held his own at age 22.  He'll likely never be a high average hitter, but the power is real.  If he breaks out Cleveland's offense will suddenly be more dangerous.

[mikelink45]

I cannot discount them.  With Lewis down our production has taken a big potential hit and we can project the former prospects to be stars - the fans on every team does this.  But I think Cleveland has once again figured out pitching - BP instead of SP and year Bibee has the look of a number one and Means and Bieber have shown that they can be really good.  

Gimenez is not as big a loss as everyone states.  I know people think 1B is the least important position but I would argue 2B has become that.  With more fly balls and Ks the keystone is not what it used to be and his bat will not be hard to replace. 

I do not project Cleveland to win it all, but I can't choose any of the four primary teams to win I just think it will be a rubix cube or possibilities

 

[Doctor Gast]

On paper, the Twins were supposed to win the Central easily last season, and CLE (w/o SP & look terrible on paper) was supposed to duke it out with rising KC and DET for second. Which goes to show that "on paper" based on HRs can't be depended on. Where true player evaluations, drafting, developing fundamentals (like defense & baserunning) & having faith in the players you develop are not counted but have a tremendous effect on the game. Clutch hitting by learning how to go the other way & not striking out is not lucky, it's learned. 

CLE always prepares their players correctly & often surprises the "on paper" people. But one thing that draws them back. Not extending the players they need to extend (except Jose Ramirez), not extending Josh Naylor & trading away Gimenez created a big hole in the right side. And Santana will not be able to save them like he couldn't with Julien playing 2B for us. 

I'm hoping the Twins can overcome what they have been doing wrong & win the division (although Julien/ France defensive hole is worse than CLE) & CLE more than likely this year finish 4th because of the selloff but if the Twins don't learn then they'll be battling CLE for 3rd.

[LambchoP]

Looking at the team rosters side by side, we should have the better team. As we've learned, you never overlook CLE. They seem to always get the most out of their players while the Twins guys see extended slumps and injuries. The AL Central should be real interesting this year with all teams except CHI looking to win the division.

[Schmoeman5]

19 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yeah, the 2024 Guardians make no sense on paper.

Projections like the Guardians to win 84ish games this year. I wasn't impressed with the Guardians rotation prior to last year and I'm less impressed with it this year. I do think Bieber is on track for a June/July return to the mound, but I'm not convinced he'll be the weapon he once was. Now entering his age 30 season, Bieber saw a decline in velo from 94.3mph in his age 25 season of 2020 down 3mph to 91.5mph from 2022-2023 finishing at age 28. A brief velo spike back to 92.5 at age 29 in 2024 was followed by a torn UCL. The Guardians need Bieber to return to elite form. If he does and he's back in June, the team might be a lot more of a danger.

They've got what looks to be an elite 1-2 punch in the bullpen with Smith and Clase, and then a bunch of projected mediocre to riff-raff arms, though a few of those guys got excellent results despite having FIPs which suggested they were just going to be adequate. Forecasting so much regression is questionable. Projection models don't like the exceptionally low BABIP generated by many of the Guardians relievers to be sustainable. Have to see on that.

When it comes to the bats, their RISP results are not going to return this year. It's not to say the Guardians are going to have a "bad" lineup, just that I don't expect them to be good, either.

Then there is the Pythagorean results which helped the Guardians win a ton of games they really shouldn't have overall, beyond things like BABIP and RISP luck.

That's was your take last year too. 

[bean5302]

56 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

That's was your take last year too. 

Isn't it a tough job following me around the forums like a lost puppy downvoting and taunting me on everything I post like a sociopathic 6yr old? At least I can rest easy knowing some things never change, haha. I hope you know you've been ignored for months so the only time I see your posts is when I forget to log in, lol.

Taunt away!

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Isn't it a tough job following me around the forums like a lost puppy downvoting and taunting me on everything I post like a sociopathic 6yr old? At least I can rest easy knowing some things never change, haha. I hope you know you've been ignored for months so the only time I see your posts is when I forget to log in, lol.

Taunt away!

Funny. When it comes to teams or players you don't like, you use cold hard stats to drive your point. Do you know what stats are? They are merely results of the past. Projections are just that. Projections! Based on past results. This year your take on the Guardians is that last year was a fluke and they were lucky. Which is exactly what you said last year. They couldn't sustain it. Just pointing that out to you. Last year you projected Royce Lewis to have an MVP type season. Based off of what statistics? This year you have given up on him but the point is, you really don't know. Just like I don't know. But I don't pretend to. You're constantly challenging folks. When you use terms like  projected medicore to riff-raff arms for arguably the best bullpen in baseball, that's not credible. There's not that much luck over 162 games. Block 🚫 away. 

[jmlease1]

One of the things that's interesting about Cleveland is how good their health was last season. they weren't running tons of guys through their lineup, their entire infield played at least 140 games, they had 7 bullpen guys appear in 50+ games, and while their rotation suffered without Bieber they still weren't spreading a gazillion starts around. Maintaining that level of health will likely be pretty key for them?

As good as Gimenez was defensively, he wasn't impressive on the other side, and frankly the Cleveland lineup still looks thin. They really need Santana to not be cooked, because they simply don't have a lot of guys who can hit. They're going to need Noel to not have any kind of sophomore slump, too, or they might be looking at putting out uninspiring bats at C, 1B (if Santana falls off again), 2B, SS, CF, and RF...get past Ramirez (an absolute beast and legit MVP candidate) and Kwan (a quality player in his prime) and what's left? They're asking 2 guys to carry a lot of offense, rely on excellent defense (which to be fair, isn't subject to slumps the same way), and their pitching.

They were really good in 1-run games and extra-innings last season, which can be pretty fungible. That said, having a great bullpen makes it less about luck and more about skill. Be interesting to see if they have 4-5 dominant guys rolling out 50+ games again this season. History says no, but Cleveland has patched it together before.

[Wizard11]

16 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Isn't it a tough job following me around the forums like a lost puppy downvoting and taunting me on everything I post like a sociopathic 6yr old? At least I can rest easy knowing some things never change, haha. I hope you know you've been ignored for months so the only time I see your posts is when I forget to log in, lol.

Taunt away!

I don't agree with stalking but you seem to be unusually sensitive to even slight criticism or disagreement.  His comment should not provoke juvenile name calling like sociopathic 6 yr old or lost puppy.  Just my .02