Edouard Julien’s Development Dilemma: Chasing Improvement Or a Mirage?

[chpettit19]

47 minutes ago, arby58 said:

You focus entirely on the Kepler example and ignore Wallner getting about as many percentage at bats against left handed pitchers as the Twins as a team the last two years. Regardless of his performance against LHP in the minor leagues, he hasn't delivered against them in MLB. 2023 the split was .970 OPS versus RHP and .481 LHP. 2024 .953 versus .611. The Twins are trying to win baseball games every day, and having a starting corner outfielder with a .481 OPS isn't going to cut it. 

These guys have opportunities beyond just games - there are pitching machines and batting practice to work on this stuff where your OPS isn't going to hurt the team.

But he didn't get almost the same amount of PAs by percentage. 11% less is a significant number. 5% is nothing to sneeze at. And those PAs come sporadically. He never starts against them if they have a decent righty option and if the Twins have a choice and the PA is in a situation where things matter at all he's getting pulled for a pinch hitter. 

March and April he got 1 PA against a lefty. 33 total PAs. July he got 9 PAs out of 51 total. August was 13 out of 93. September he had 21 for 84. So, 3%, 17.6%, 13.9%, 25%. That's one month of getting real PAs against them and it came as the team was collapsing and now he's suddenly supposed to be an everyday star. 

Yes, there are a lot of opportunities outside the game to improve his ability. The technology today is why the idea that lefties can't hit lefties is needing to be looked at again. The Twins are extreme in their platooning. They had by far the least number of left on left PAs last year. They aren't shy about it. The manager of the team openly states he plans to continue to do it.

Gunnar Henderson is always my go to here. Orioles expected him to be a star. Just like I'd think the Twins should expect Wallner to be a star with the numbers he puts up. Gunnar had nowhere near the success as Wallner did left on left in the minors. But when Gunnar got called up in 2022 they didn't platoon him even with his .448 OPS against them. And despite that awful line in 2022 he didn't get platooned in 2023 and put up a .618 OPS against them. Last year, still not platooned at all despite 2 straight seasons of less than ideal OPS numbers against lefties. OPS of .829 against lefties. In 217 PAs. That's more than the entire Twins team had left on left last year. So, your percentage numbers don't impress me. Gunnar had 167 PAs in 2023 which was only 27 fewer than the Twins entire team had last year. That is what not platooning a player looks like.

I don't think there's many of us calling for the Twins to just blindly throw every lefty in there against lefties at all times. What we question is turning possible stars into platoon hitters. And that's exactly what they're doing. Max Kepler lead the Twins in left on left PAs again last year. 82. That was good for the 67 most in baseball. So, on average, every other team had 2 other hitters with more left on left PAs. It's extreme. Jackson Holliday, at 20-years-old, played 60 MLB games last year. 208 PAs. Matt Wallner, at the age of 26, played 75 games and had 261 PAs. Jackson Holliday, as a rookie with an OPS of .417 against lefties, and an overall OPS of .565, got 46 PAs left on left. 22% of his PAs if you want to go with that metric. Matt Wallner, in his 3rd big league season, with an OPS of .611 against lefties, and an overall OPS of .894, got 44 PAs left on left. As you said, 17% of his PAs. It's a clearly different approach to team management. 1 team sees potential star, everyday players and puts them in there everyday. The other sees a platoon hitter. And neither Gunnar nor Jackson put up anywhere near the numbers against lefties that Wallner did in AA and AAA. Like 200+ points of OPS difference.

Now the Orioles do platoon O'Hearn. So it's not just giving every lefty a shot. It's giving possible stars the chance to be stars. The Twins are actively making it harder for Wallner and holding him back from reaching his full potential. If they thought 2023 was the real Julien, not giving him a lengthy leash to play everyday and be a possible star is holding him back from reaching his full potential. And if I'm those players I'd be pissed. If I'm Matt Wallner I'm telling them to play me everyday or find me a team that will let me take my chance of becoming a star because you're costing me millions and millions of dollars. I don't want to be Joc Pederson making 60ish mil for my career (obviously still crazy money). I want to be an everyday star who signs a 9 figure deal.

If your team relies on getting the perfect matchup as often as possible to win games, your team likely isn't talented enough to truly contend. Stars win in the playoffs. Hoping to mix and match your way to a championship by platooning guys even at the top of your lineup and hoping to nail your in game pinch hitting decisions is not a strategy I'm confident can lead to a championship. You're welcome to disagree, but I can't think of many World Series titles from teams who were pinch hitting for their leadoff man in the 5th or taking their near .900 OPS hitter out in the 6th. But my memory isn't what it used to be so maybe I'm forgetting a bunch.

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Nobody* has a "good" two-strike approach.  At least, across the majors, the overall OPS was .509 for plate appearances where a two strike count was reached.  However, Julien went "below and beyond" by OPSing .398 in those situations.  So, yeah, a change seems called for.

Getting into those situation in the first place is also something that could be avoided better.  Across the majors, 53% of PA reached two strikes, and for Julien it was 58%; in 2023 his ratio was only 47%.  Every little bit helps, since not-reaching-two-strikes has an OPS somewhere in the 800s or 900s (I don't see that particular breakdown at b-r.com and am not going to invest effort to compute exactly).  Julien faced 5 or 10 percent more unfavorable situations (depending on how you compute it) than the typical batter in 2024.

 

* Shohei had .683 OPS once two strikes were reached in 2024.   Aaron Judge did achieve .811, but that's also a huge dropoff from his other situations.  I'm not going to search further.

When I watch Julien bat. Patience is the thing that stands out to me. In his good 2023... he seemed to show patience. In his bad 2024... he seem to show patience.

I tend to like the patient approach because in the game of cat and mouse between pitchers and hitters. Pitchers are trying to get a hitter to hit a pitch they don't want to hit. Swinging at pitches that pitchers want you to isn't ideal. Waiting for your pitch could... in theory... lead to some interesting numbers such as the high BABIP that many thought was sure to regress. 

However the downside of extreme patience can lead to two strike counts and two strike counts leads to exactly what you point out in your post and of course... in the case of Julien... High K% because you can't strike out with zero or one strike.

You and I were part of discussion awhile back about K% and offensive production. There wasn't obvious correlation because some of the best contact teams were the lowest producing teams in the league.

In the case of Julien. For some reason he got to two strikes too often in 2024. (I bolded those 4 words because of 75% of those words). 

When that happened... Too many times he stood and looked at strike 3... sometimes those suckers were right down the middle. If you are patient to the point of reaching two strikes... at that point... go ahead and produce that .509 OPS. Make contact with that pitch that isn't in your happy zone. 

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Eephus said:

Seems like people aren't really acknowledging how abysmal Julien was last year.

Not sure how you came up with that conclusion since Julien has received more negative comments than any other Twin since last season. The numbers and eye test comments have been nonstop all offseason. 

Maybe you were thinking about how the Twins see Julien. I don't know about that.

[Eephus]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Not sure how you came up with that conclusion since Julien has received more negative comments than any other Twin since last season. The numbers and eye test comments have been nonstop all offseason. 

Maybe you were thinking about how the Twins see Julien. I don't know about that.

I haven't been reading here  a lot for a while so I'm sure you're right.. Maybe I am surprised he is even being analyzed to this extent until he shows something in the minors 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, Eephus said:

I haven't been reading here  a lot for a while so I'm sure you're right.. Maybe I am surprised he is even being analyzed to this extent until he shows something in the minors 

It’s not shocking because he showed a lot in the majors in 2023.   

[Twinsrtheworst]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The next person who states that Julien is strong defensively will be the first to do so. Julien has an awkward approach in the field. His fielding, transitions, and throws are too often an adventure. That said, he usually gets the job done. What needs to be fairly stated is that the other options are not any better. I'm going to suggest Julien has better (or equal) range than the others taking ground balls at second. . People are stretching the truth when they put any of the other guys above Julien by more than an unimportant notch. At that point it does come down to who hits. Hopefully the Twins can soon find someone who plays a strong second base and hits as well. I was hopeful that Payton Eeles could at least get a brief trial look but the Twins must have judged his AA/AAA work a mirage. Maybe someone will emerge in a couple of years. Maybe Julien returns to hitting like it is 2023 and April of 2024.

Why do you think The Twins judged his minor league work to be a mirage?

[DocBauer]

LHB: Coach, I'd like to face LHP and see what I can do.

COACH: Did you face them in the minors? How did you do?

LHB: Yes. I did OK. 

COACH: Well, you haven't hit them up here yet.

LHB: But coach, I never get to face them. How can I get better if I never get to try?

COACH: Hmm....I never thought of that. You're starting tomorrow against the lefty!

I don't think anyone is every saying "let all LH hitters play against LHP. Nor is anyone saying LH hitters should face all LHP, including Cy Young winners". Go ahead and do some platooning! It's smart baseball. But a LH hitter that NEVER or SELDOM sees a LHP is just never going to improve.

Yes, there are machines. Back in the day, TK used to throw batting practice as a lefty. So batters CAN work on the side. But not only should that not be your sole focus...as Julien seems to present here...but that's still different from being in a live game against a live pitcher trying to get you out. 

 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, se7799 said:

Why do you think The Twins judged his minor league work to be a mirage?

I don't know how the Twins view Eeles but there are already 20 minor league players who have played in ST games and will never have a season like Eeles had last season at AA/AAA. Meanwhile Eeles has not even been on the roster. of course it is ST and so that alone means nothing. I do wonder that in the last two weeks there hasn't been a single note about him anywhere. I suppose he is just working in the minor league camp.

[Twinsrtheworst]

14 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I don't know how the Twins view Eeles but there are already 20 minor league players who have played in ST games and will never have a season like Eeles had last season at AA/AAA. Meanwhile Eeles has not even been on the roster. of course it is ST and so that alone means nothing. I do wonder that in the last two weeks there hasn't been a single note about him anywhere. I suppose he is just working in the minor league camp.

There is a legitimate reason he has not been playing..  He isn't 100 percent healthy is all I can say. 

[bean5302]

When I looked at Julien's swing percentages O-Swing, Z-Swing, overall, and contact rates, I didn't see a huge change. Last year he was swinging more, but when he swung away, he was making less contact. Maybe there was something to his approach change, but I'm a little skeptical.

Hopefully, Julien can make whatever adjustments he needs to be able to make better contact, especially on pitches he hasn't been able to handle well previously.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, se7799 said:

There is a legitimate reason he has not been playing..  He isn't 100 percent healthy is all I can say. 

source?

[h2oface]

Just trade Julien already. He might be real good somewhere else. Not here. Not with who runs the team now. And regardless if he can hit lefties, he is a liability in the field, and aren't you just sick of watching him take so many good pitches, and especially 3rd strikes? I am. It doesn't matter what arm the pitcher is pitching with you don't swing anyway.

[ddubbl1]

Regardless of his hitting, he needs way more work on defense, I think he would fare better with a different organization. He might eventually improve for a team like Las Vegas. At least the casinos have nice buffets.

[ddubbl1]

Regardless of his hitting, he needs way more work on defense, I think he would fare better with a different organization. He might eventually improve for a team like Las Vegas. At least the casinos have nice buffets.( even though he'd be in Sacramento this year - maybe they have a nice Waffle House)? He should have had one more entire year at triple-AAA anyways.  p.c.w.i.h

h.i.g.!!!

[Twinsrtheworst]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

source?

Me.  Saw it with my own eyes and ears.

[arby58]

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

But he didn't get almost the same amount of PAs by percentage. 11% less is a significant number. 5% is nothing to sneeze at. And those PAs come sporadically. He never starts against them if they have a decent righty option and if the Twins have a choice and the PA is in a situation where things matter at all he's getting pulled for a pinch hitter. 

Snipping a lot of interesting discussion - thank you for that. I like to focus on numbers, because it is what I best understand. 5% is 'nothing to sneeze at' until we look at what it would mean to 'move the dial' to the average for the Twins as a team against LHP. In 2023, it would have been 20 additional ABs. I highly doubt that Wallner, with 20 additional ABs against LHP that year would have transformed himself into a better hitter against them. That would be the equivalent of about 3 at bats a month.  Besides, only a true 'everyday player' gets the same share of at bats against their same sided pitcher, so it's probably more like 10. Obviously, you would slightly more than double that number for an 11 percent difference, but, again, is it really 20 at bats that are killing his development?

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Snipping a lot of interesting discussion - thank you for that. I like to focus on numbers, because it is what I best understand. 5% is 'nothing to sneeze at' until we look at what it would mean to 'move the dial' to the average for the Twins as a team against LHP. In 2023, it would have been 20 additional ABs. I highly doubt that Wallner, with 20 additional ABs against LHP that year would have transformed himself into a better hitter against them. That would be the equivalent of about 3 at bats a month.  Besides, only a true 'everyday player' gets the same share of at bats against their same sided pitcher, so it's probably more like 10. Obviously, you would slightly more than double that number for an 11 percent difference, but, again, is it really 20 at bats that are killing his development?

I like the numbers, too, but ignoring the other stuff, in my opinion, misses part of the point. There is a mental aspect to things in believing you're an everyday guy and worrying about every PA and what it'll mean for your career.

But back to the numbers. A player who plays 150 games in a season (a pretty good mark to measure an "everyday" player this day and age) will get between about 625 and 675 PAs depending on where in the order they hit and how good their offense is. Some may be as low as 600 others up by 700. But 625-675 is the general range. Let's call it 650 for the ease of discussion. At 650 PAs a year, 23% of your PAs would be 149.5 PAs. 18% would be 117. So now we're talking low 30s in missed PAs. Keeping with our 4.3 PAs/GM measure, that's over 7 games worth of PAs. 28% of PAs would be 182 PAs vs 17% at 110.5. Now we're talking over 70 PAs. That's 17 games worth of PAs at the 4.3 PA/GM measure.

I believe those are significant numbers. It's not just about the limited PAs Wallner has gotten since he hasn't played full seasons, it's about the overall approach. The Twins have gotten extreme with their platooning the last few seasons. Shohei and Schwarber were at 249 and 248 PAs left on left last year. I already gave you that Henderson had 217. There were 12 guys over 200 (that's more than the entire Twins team). 27 over 150. The high mark for Wallner based on a full season's worth of PAs and your percentages would be 117. There were 42 guys in baseball that beat that number last year. There aren't 42 guys in baseball putting up Matt Wallner numbers.

The concern is the overall approach. Will they change it for stars or are they going to limit them to 100 to 120 PAs when they could be getting 200-250? Of the 42 guys with 120 or more left on left PAs, the average wRC+ against lefties was 105. 20 of them were at or over 100. 25 at or over 90. 35 at or over 80. The league's total wRC+ left on left was 89. That's a .668 OPS. The Twins pinch hitters last year had a wRC+ of 57 and an OPS of .546.

Rocco stated in an interview about a month ago that they plan to keep doing the pinch hitting/platooning stuff because they believe it was a big reason for their success in 2023. That's a solid belief based on their wRC+ of 101 and OPS of .724 pinch hitting in 2023. But in 2022 those numbers were 66 and .546. In 2021 they were 59 and .552. So, my question to you is, do those pinch hitting numbers make you believe it's the right strategy to pinch hit for all lefties as frequently as they do or do you think Wallner (who had a better left on left OPS than the Twins pinch hitters as a whole had last year) or Jenkins or Emma or Larnach or Julien or any of them should be given the chance to just be an average lefty hitter against lefty pitching which would blow our pinch hitters out of the water in 3 of the last 4 seasons?

And this doesn't even get into Rocco's weird habit of stacking his lefties specifically to get a lefty into the game so he can go to his pinch hitters. Spacing them out would give Wallner, Julien, Larnach, etc. more PAs against righties as the opposing manager would have to pick his place to use his lefties. Either they are burning multiple lefties every game or the one be brings in faces 1 lefty and multiple righties just to get to another lefty. The strategy, to me, feels awfully flawed.

[tony&rodney]

chpettit19 - To your first paragraph, I believe someone (Yogi) once said that baseball is 90% mental and the other half is physical health.

 

[arby58]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I like the numbers, too, but ignoring the other stuff, in my opinion, misses part of the point. There is a mental aspect to things in believing you're an everyday guy and worrying about every PA and what it'll mean for your career.

But back to the numbers. A player who plays 150 games in a season (a pretty good mark to measure an "everyday" player this day and age) will get between about 625 and 675 PAs depending on where in the order they hit and how good their offense is. Some may be as low as 600 others up by 700. But 625-675 is the general range. Let's call it 650 for the ease of discussion. At 650 PAs a year, 23% of your PAs would be 149.5 PAs. 18% would be 117. So now we're talking low 30s in missed PAs. Keeping with our 4.3 PAs/GM measure, that's over 7 games worth of PAs. 28% of PAs would be 182 PAs vs 17% at 110.5. Now we're talking over 70 PAs. That's 17 games worth of PAs at the 4.3 PA/GM measure.

I believe those are significant numbers. It's not just about the limited PAs Wallner has gotten since he hasn't played full seasons, it's about the overall approach. The Twins have gotten extreme with their platooning the last few seasons. Shohei and Schwarber were at 249 and 248 PAs left on left last year. I already gave you that Henderson had 217. There were 12 guys over 200 (that's more than the entire Twins team). 27 over 150. The high mark for Wallner based on a full season's worth of PAs and your percentages would be 117. There were 42 guys in baseball that beat that number last year. There aren't 42 guys in baseball putting up Matt Wallner numbers.

You can't compare Wallner's numbers over a full season until he actually plays one. Using anything other than his actual statistics is conjecture.

[LambchoP]

After his struggles last year, I think he should start the year in St. Paul playing everyday at first and second. See if he can first, find a defensive home where he's good enough. More importantly, can his bat improve enough to earn a call-up. I think Lee, Castro and eventually Keaschal and possibly Eeles will surpass him on the depth chart pretty soon unless he can show significant improvement.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, arby58 said:

You can't compare Wallner's numbers over a full season until he actually plays one. Using anything other than his actual statistics is conjecture.

Your stats aren't "actual statistics" either as they don't take into account what the actual number of opportunities Wallner had to face a lefty were. Your stats are the same kind of conjecture as mine as you're assuming/projecting his percentage would/should match the team average for the year without taking into account when he was on the team and what instances he could've faced a lefty but didn't. You're using full season team stats to project what Wallner's % should have been. That's conjecture, too. Maybe a little more dialed in than mine, but conjecture nonetheless. 

But the point isn't about Wallner himself. It's about the Twins approach to lefty hitters, especially the ones who may be stars. It's about Wallner, Julien, Larnach, Rodriguez, Jenkins, whoever you think may be a star. That's where this all started. The article talks about Julien essentially dedicating his entire offseason hitting program to hitting lefties better to try to convince his organization to let him hit against lefties on a regular basis. The guy was one of their best hitters the year before and decided his only shot at being an everyday player was to dedicate his entire offseason to hitting lefties to try to convince his organization to give him a chance to be a star. 

Julien is telling us that lefties on this team don't feel like they have a legit chance to be everyday players unless they go above and beyond. That isn't the case in other organizations. I, and some others, have a problem with this.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

...It's about the Twins approach to lefty hitters, especially the ones who may be star...

I think it says a lot about Baldelli when his "strategy" has been to change strategies every year, but it's not his core philosophy which is broken, it's somebody else's fault when things go wrong. There are a few consistent pieces which continue.
1) Platoon almost everybody.
2) Rest players even if they don't need it to prevent injury.
3) Play mediocre veterans over younger players.
4) Use players in positions they're not suited to play.
5) Trust the process is universally correct
 

[arby58]

10 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Julien is telling us that lefties on this team don't feel like they have a legit chance to be everyday players unless they go above and beyond. That isn't the case in other organizations. I, and some others, have a problem with this.

I'm not feeling their angst. If you are a left handed hitter, the statistics suggest you are going to be in the lineup two-thirds to three-fourths of the time, because that is the difference in righthanded versus lefthanded pitching. To me, this is a solution looking for a problem.

[chpettit19]

Just now, arby58 said:

I'm not feeling their angst. If you are a left handed hitter, the statistics suggest you are going to be in the lineup two-thirds to three-fourths of the time, because that is the difference in righthanded versus lefthanded pitching. 

It's not your career so I'm sure you aren't feeling their angst. Joc Pederson puts up massive numbers. Last 3 OPS+ numbers are 146, 112, and 151. Career OPS of 119. But he's a platoon bat. He's made 62 mil in his career (according to spotrac). Can't get anyone to sign him to big, long-term money. Got 2 years, 37 mil this offseason coming off that 3 year run. Got "just" 12.5 the year before. There's a very real difference between being an everyday player and a platoon bat when it comes to guy's careers. You may not feel their angst, but it's a very real thing. 

[Riverbrian]

20 hours ago, arby58 said:

You can't compare Wallner's numbers over a full season until he actually plays one. Using anything other than his actual statistics is conjecture.

Agree that it's conjecture. Conjecture is a conclusion drawn with incomplete information.

Wallner will do great against left handed pitchers is conjecture.

Wallner will be average against left handed pitchers is conjecture. 

Wallner will be terrible against left handed pitchers is conjecture. 

Some of us are literally begging the organization for more complete information. 

 

[arby58]

26 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Some of us are literally begging the organization for more complete information.

Incomplete information is often used because the cost associated with gathering complete (or even more complete) information outweighs its benefit. 

If, for example, 'the powers that be' assented to your begging and Wallner put up 'Vasquez-like' (or even Gallo-like) numbers for some period of time, would that cost (maybe a lost game or two) outweigh the benefit of more complete information? My guess is lots of posters around here would quickly reach that conclusion.

[arby58]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Joc Pederson puts up massive numbers. Last 3 OPS+ numbers are 146, 112, and 151. Career OPS of 119. But he's a platoon bat. He's made 62 mil in his career (according to spotrac). Can't get anyone to sign him to big, long-term money. Got 2 years, 37 mil this offseason coming off that 3 year run. Got "just" 12.5 the year before. There's a very real difference between being an everyday player and a platoon bat when it comes to guy's careers. You may not feel their angst, but it's a very real thing. 

It's a stretch to suggest that he would put up those OPS+ numbers were he an everyday player. Look at his OPS splits - his first year wasn't too bad - .784/.691 - but his second year it was .918/.469. Other than the shortened 2020 (small sample size) he's never performed better against LHP - and the difference last year was .923/.749. 

Joc has played for six teams (Dodgers, Cubs, Braves, Giants, Diamondbacks, Rangers) and can't get any of them to play him regularly against LHP - you think there might be a reason?

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, arby58 said:

If you are a left handed hitter, the statistics suggest you are going to be in the lineup two-thirds to three-fourths of the time, because that is the difference in righthanded versus lefthanded pitching. To me, this is a solution looking for a problem.

Or... It is the creation of a bigger problem in an attempt to solve a much smaller problem. You said it yourself... "three-fourths". Why go out and search for more right handed bats when they will face the "three-fourths". 

The Twins as a team in 2024 ranked 30th in pure left handed batters facing left handed pitching with 194. Only the Mariners, A's, Reds, Angels, Pirates and Rays... none of which made the playoffs... didn't reach approximately double the amount of left handed hitters facing left handed batters. The Red Sox led all of baseball with 843 PA's. The Top 9 were: Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees, Cardinals, Guardians, Nationals, Dodgers, Orioles and Padres. 6 of the top 9 made the playoffs. 

14 individual left handed hitting players had as many AB's against left handed pitching then the entire Twins team.

Have the Twins taken this beyond what others are doing?? Other teams seem to be doing OK... with left handed hitters on their roster. 

2 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Incomplete information is often used because the cost associated with gathering complete (or even more complete) information outweighs its benefit. 

If, for example, 'the powers that be' assented to your begging and Wallner put up 'Vasquez-like' (or even Gallo-like) numbers for some period of time, would that cost (maybe a lost game or two) outweigh the benefit of more complete information? My guess is lots of posters around here would quickly reach that conclusion.

We have capped the development of Wallner, Larnach and Julien at "NEEDING A Margot or Bader or Farmer ATTACHED to them. 

If this is the best our development can do... in the name of "Information outweighs its benefit" 

If avoiding the cost of a game or two... which I don't believe... but if avoiding the cost of a game or two... costs us the development of a player who doesn't require a lower tier handcuff players.

I'd say the cost of a game or two is a smaller price to pay. 

 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

It's a stretch to suggest that he would put up those OPS+ numbers were he an everyday player. Look at his OPS splits - his first year wasn't too bad - .784/.691 - but his second year it was .918/.469. Other than the shortened 2020 (small sample size) he's never performed better against LHP - and the difference last year was .923/.749. 

Joc has played for six teams (Dodgers, Cubs, Braves, Giants, Diamondbacks, Rangers) and can't get any of them to play him regularly against LHP - you think there might be a reason?

Yes, there's a reason. He can't hit them. That isn't the point. The point is that you said you weren't "feeling their angst" because lefties still play 2/3 to 3/4 of the time (107-122 games per year, BTW) because that's how many righty pitchers there are. The "angst" of Twins lefties is that they're being forced into the Joc Pederson box without a real chance of getting into the everyday player box and that has a real effect on their career.

I never claimed Pederson would put up those numbers if he played everyday, he was the example that there's very real consequences to Wallner, Julien, Rodriguez, Larnach, Jenkins, etc. being put in the "platoon" box for the first 6 years of their careers. Potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth of consequences. Players care about that. 

If your bosses were actively holding you back from a potential promotion with a significant pay increase would you "feel angst?" I sure would.

[arby58]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yes, there's a reason. He can't hit them. That isn't the point. The point is that you said you weren't "feeling their angst" because lefties still play 2/3 to 3/4 of the time (107-122 games per year, BTW) because that's how many righty pitchers there are. The "angst" of Twins lefties is that they're being forced into the Joc Pederson box without a real chance of getting into the everyday player box and that has a real effect on their career.

I never claimed Pederson would put up those numbers if he played everyday, he was the example that there's very real consequences to Wallner, Julien, Rodriguez, Larnach, Jenkins, etc. being put in the "platoon" box for the first 6 years of their careers. Potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth of consequences. Players care about that. 

If your bosses were actively holding you back from a potential promotion with a significant pay increase would you "feel angst?" I sure would.

I appreciated your 'he can't hit them' comment - a true first LOL of the day.

Taking Rodriguez and Jenkins out of the discussion because we have no way of knowing how the Twins would use them, but one of the differentiators for a player besides offense is defense. None of the remainder of the group you mentioned (Wallner, Julien, Larnach) is a particularly good defensive player, and Julien's defensive runs saved at 2B is well below average. Even when Buxton isn't hitting, you want him in the lineup for his defensive play and disrupting speed on the bases. It's possible either Rodriguez or Jenkins will also provide that differentiation.

Also, none of the three were ever a top 10 prospect in all of minor league baseball, ala Jenkins. He might end up being a Kyle Tucker type of player who plays every day regardless of who is pitching. My prediction is that if he is putting up Tucker-like numbers, he'll play everyday.