Comparing AL Central Rosters: Part 3 (Starting Pitchers)

[Seth Stohs]

Looking at offense is fun, but what wins? Pitching. How does the Twins starting five compare to the predicted starting five for the other AL Central teams?

Image courtesy of Cole Ragans (Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images), Tanner Bibee (Ken Blaze-Imagn Images), Pablo Lopez (Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images), Tarik Skubal (Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images), Seth Lugo (Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images).

Comparing five hitters who play the same position is fun, and sometimes there can be challenging decisions. Comparing 25 starting pitchers to each other? That's a whole other ballgame. However, many would agree that pitching is the most important part in a ballgame, starting with the starters. 

Previous AL Central Comparisons
Part 1: The Infielders/Catchers
Part 2: The Outfielders/CH/Bench
Part 3: Starting Pitchers (Today)
Part 4: Relief Pitchers (Coming Soon)

I’m not sure there is a great way to look at and compare a group of five starters, so I’ll talk you through some of what I did. You’ll see this in the summary charts below too. 

The key to this exercise is to not overthink it. That’s the key because then I have a chance. How much research do I want to do? But I also think that sometimes a first reaction gives a person a good feel for how they truly feel about the pitchers and the group. 

The first thing I wanted to do was attempt to predict the five rotations. I’ve listed five potential season-opening starters for each team. I also noted a couple of starters who are likely to come off of the injured list at some point during the season. When in doubt, I guessed. One part that is really difficult to account for is injuries and depth. I included Chris Paddack in the Twins starting rotation, even though I think I’d rather see David Festa or Zebby Matthews. I went with Jackson Jobe for the Tigers instead of Kenta Maeda or Keider Montero or Matt Manning. 

 

The Starting Fives 
Twins: Pablo Lopez (3.2), Bailey Ober (2.9), Joe Ryan (3.1), Simeon Woods Richardson (1.8), Chris Paddack (1.0)
Guardians: Tanner Bibee (3.3), Gavin Williams (1.3), Luis Ortiz (1.0), Ben Lively (0.8), Triston McKenzie (-1.0), Shane Bieber (IL, 0.8)
Royals: Seth Lugo (4.7), Cole Ragans (4.9), Michael Wacha (3.3), Alec Marsh (1.4), Michael Lorenzen (0.7), Kyle Wright (IL) 
Tigers: Tarik Skubal (5.9), Reese Olson (2.4), Casey Mize (1.2), Alex Cobb (0.3), Jackson Jobe (0.0) 
White Sox: Jonathan Cannon (0.9), Drew Thorpe (-0.1), Davis Martin (0.6), Shane Smith (R5), Martin Perez (0.5) 

So, there are the five AL Central starting rotations. Now what? 

First, I kept it pretty simple. Who are the Top 5 starting pitchers in the division? They each get five points. Who are the #6 through #10 starters in the division? They get four points each. Eleven through 15? Three points each. Sixteen through 20? Two points each. The White Sox starters each get one point. That’s not true, though it’s close. 

I am pretty sure that we can all agree that right now, Tigers lefty and reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in the division. But then I put Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans, both of the Royals in the two and three spots. I ranked Pablo Lopez as the fourth-best AL Central starter, and Tanner Bibee of the Guardians at #5. Those five pitchers got five points for their teams. That’s 10 points for the Royals and five points for the Twins, Guardians and Tigers. 

I think that those five are pretty well agreed upon. It’s right away in Group #2 (6-10) where you can start finding some variance and disagreement in the rankings. It’s my list, and you should create your own list based on your opinions, your research, what you’ve seen or read. It’s your fandom. 

For me, I ranked Twins righties Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober in the #6 and #7 spots. Is that a hometown bias? They were followed in my rankings by Michael Wacha (Royals), Gavin Williams (Guardians), and Reese Olson (Tigers). 

So real quick, here is how that ranking turns out after ranking the 25 pitchers in order: 

 

Looking at this chart, the Twins and Royals stand at the top of the AL Central in terms of their starting five. However, the Guardians and Tigers are both close. What is the difference between 18 and 16? (I know. The answer is 2, but as it relates to this discussion...)

So I wanted to take it to a little different level to try to gain a little separation.

Since you’ve already ranked your Top 25, from 1 to 25, why not include a second chart. Why not just give one point to the #1 pitcher (Skubal), two points to the #2 pitcher (Lugo), three points for the #3 starter (Ragans), and four points for the Twins for Pablo Lopez in the fourth spot. The #25 starter… maybe White Sox Nick Martini (?)... adds 25 points to the White Sox ledger. 

The value in taking time to do this exercise is to provide scale. Instead of #1 being given equal weight as #5, and just four points different from Tarik Skubel to, ummm… let’s pick on a different White Sox starter, maybe Davis Martin (?) at #24? 

Which is better? Having three Twins starters in the Top seven in the division, and their #5 starter at #18, or the Royals having two in the top three, three in the top 10, and four in the top 12, but they have a 23 in their fifth spot? 

Well, from my personal rankings, here’s how it turned out for me. How does yours look?

So by adding this level of detail, the Royals do separate themselves a little bit from the Twins for the top spot. There is a more noticeable difference between the top two teams and the next two, but the Tigers (largely due to Skubal) finish in third place. 

And, as with any preseason projection or prediction, there's no way of knowing who is right or who is wrong. One or two injuries could alter everything. We all know that a team will get starts from at least eight-to-ten pitchers, and as many as probably 20. There are other variables that happen during a regular season. 

But this is a fun exercise to find out how you really feel about where the Twins are right now relative to their primary competition. Now it's your turn. Discuss my rankings, if you want, but take a few minutes and create your own rankings. 

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[Blyleven2011]

Sasaki said to be signing with Dodgers,  no surprise  ...

Trade rumors reported this 30 minutes ago  ...

Ryan is close to your top 5 , there is decent starters on 4 out of 5 central teams , I know nothing of the white Sox starting staff ...

Detroit has a Cy young , the rest of the top 10 are solid pitchers ...

Playball  , 

[tony&rodney]

I really like the Twins starting pitching. I'm also quite high on Zebby Matthews and Andrew Morris.

Still, it seems like the Royals have a leg up on the Twins right now as far as SP goes. I do not believe the Tigers are done yet. I'm not sure Triston McKenzie will be among the top five for Cleveland. If he is, it means he is back to his 2022 self, really good. We should not underestimate Cleveland. 

The Twins have pitching. will they catch the ball and convert outs into outs? The bats are also a big question mark too.

 

[Brandon]

Each teams 6-8 starters should be rated but given less weight as that can be a separator.  
 

Festa is the wildcard for the Twins rotation if he pitches 160 - 180 innings across 32 starts he could have near ace level results and put our rotation over the top.  But KC gets a nod over the Twins but the Twins have a good rotation too and our bullpen vs Kansas City is night and day.  Detroit is really lacking in quality at the back end of the rotation.  Cleveland’s rotation was not good last year so I’m not sure how they are close to Twins quality rotation.  Chicago is starting over and it seems they have decent prospects to start over soon.  

[IndianaTwin]

17 hours ago, Brandon said:

Each teams 6-8 starters should be rated but given less weight as that can be a separator….

Yes. A significant number of games will be started by pitchers not listed above.

[NYCTK]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins have pitching. will they catch the ball and convert outs into outs?

Great question. Correa and Buxton both still positives out there, but otherwise every other defender out there feels like either a negative or a question mark (Lee? Probably a positive?). 

Defense might not be doing the pitching staff any favors. 

[arby58]

I prefer your latter approach, but I suspect neither gives Skubal the perhaps head and shoulders edge over any other starting pitcher in the division. The other approach, which you provide at the start, is to just add up last year's WAR - which, of course, is predicting future outcomes based on past results, and every financial product will provide a disclaimer related to that approach. It also does not account for seasons cut short by injuries. 

Last year, it would have been hard to claim the Royals would have the best starting pitching in the division - some pitchers will emerge. As others have suggested, that may well be Festa for the Twins this year (just as SWR was an afterthought at this time last year). 

[TopGunn#22]

Great article and great series breaking down the A.L. Central Seth.  I am pretty much in agreement with your rankings, in each of your examples you provided.  There are some things that are a certainty and other things that are very much a question to be answered.  At the top of the list for each of the A.L. Central teams is HEALTH.

The Chicago White Sox are bad.  Their hitting is bad,  Their pitching is bad.  They have some young talent coming  but they will have more "downs" than "ups" for a while.

The Tigers have not only the best SP in the A.L. Central, but maybe the best in all of baseball.  Tarik Skubal could very well follow last season's CY Young with another one this year.  The Tigers have some other talented young pitchers, but none that comes close to Skubal.  If he were to miss any time  at all this season it would be a major blow to the Tigers.

Cleveland is the great unknown to me.  They have past stars (Bieber and McKenzie) who are recovering from injuries who have either won a CY Young or been very, very good.  They have young SP with great potential, (Bibee and Gavin Williams).  The variance of what they COULD be and what they WILL be in enormous.

The Royals have the best 1-2 in the division according to WAR with Ragans and Lugo and a solid #3 with Wacha.  However, Lugo's transition from reliever to starter exceeded all expectations last year and with it came a large increase in innings.  Can he repeat it?  Ragans is a sleeper CY Young candidate.  Wacha was solid last year, but pitching can be so up and down.  Can he repeat or come close to what he did?  I'd give KC the nod for top rotation and best player in the division, Bobby Witt Jr.

Finally the Twins.  We all expect Lopez to have a bounce back season.  Much closer to 2023 than 2024.  Joe Ryan, like Cole Ragans, has that look of a sneaky CY Young candidate provided he stays healthy all season.  To me, Ober is the best #3 in the division despite Wacha having a 3.3 WAR to his 2.9.  Given a choice, I'd take Ober and his consistent improvement year after year to out perform Wacha by the end of the year.  I don't see Paddack throwing a single inning for the Twins this season.  He's going to get traded soon.  The #4 & #5 spots in the rotation will be Festa & SWR backed up by Matthews and Morris.  Questions abound.  

Can SWR come close to his 2024?  Can Festa tap into his tremendous potential and throw 150 innings? Will the Twins surprise with a SP addition?  Someone like Jose Quintana?  How would that affect the rotation?  Would it come down to a spring training battle between Festa and SWR for the #5 spot?  Quintana would be an interesting addition.  He's left-handed.  He eats up innings.  He's kind of a perfect stabilizing #4 where someone like Festa could be the "exciting potential" #5. 

Would the addition of someone like Quintana allow the Twins to dangle SWR in a trade to add a better 1B or RH hitting outfielder? 

Last year, 3 A.L. Central teams made the playoffs.  The Twins certainly have the talent to win the division.  That much is clear in Seth's series.  Next up will be the bullpen.  Cleveland had an historic BP last year, from Clase down to the last arm in the pen.  Can they all repeat it?  The Twins have potentially one of the best BP's in all of baseball, not just the A.L. Central.  A good BP can make the starting rotation even better.    

[LambchoP]

This will never happen but I believe both Festa, Mathews and Morris need some more time in AAA. I like our top 3 of Lopez, Ryan and Ober. SWR as our 4 could go either way. For our number 5, I think it makes sense to dump Paddack for a cheap relief pitcher or prospect, and then sign Quintana to a one year deal. His salary is more or less the same as Paddack and would give us a much different lefty look in the rotation. Would also allow Festa and Mathews to finish off their development rather than needing to rely on them right out of the gate.

[JD-TWINS]

I guess I don’t understand the rationale of Cleveland & K.C. having 6 pitchers listed as their core rotation going into ‘25 & FESTA not being listed in the mix for the Twins?

To me, Paddack has proven he cannot hold up as a regular starter for a season throughout his entire career. He’s either traded, IMO, or Team uses his talents in the PEN as a great maybe 1 1/3 - 2 inning bridge guy. He cannot hold final out and his innings can be minimized. He IS the FA reliever people here think needs to be added. I think Festa is essentially a lock as 5th starter.

He & Varland on alternating days when Team is in the game, can go one plus innings to get to the 7th. Sands/Alcala - Jax - Duran to seal them. I see these combinations, along with Topa - Stewart being formidable!! Maybe a note for the relief pitcher post yet to come?

[JD-TWINS]

……..tried to say above……,, Paddack in the PEN “can go all out” and keep his total innings in the 80-90 range from the PEN. Also, maybe 4-5 spot starts as a 3-4 inning opener.

[DocBauer]

Probably fair and about the best to be done at this point. But I have doubts Lugo can repeat his easily best career season at 35yo. And if Lopez can get in a groove earlier than he did the previous 2 years, I think an arguement could be made that he's possibly the #2 or #3 in the division.

[Stew]

Excellent job. This proves that the twins are one good started away from the best starting staff. A good left handed like a quintana would be enough. A lefty reliever and a first baseman and were set.

[UK Twin]

I do like where the Twins rotation is right now. After suffering through the 2010's with the likes of Pelfrey and Correia as our BETTER options it's great to have a 1-2-3 of Lopez, Ryan and Ober. I'm still not 100% sold on SWR - I think Festa will overtake him to become the 4th spot in the rotation - his stuff is better and am quite excited to how he will develop.

I fully expect Paddack to be traded as we will have Matthews and Varland as depth options. 

I think the Twins have the deepest rotation along with KC even if Detroit has the best SP in the AL Central. 

[Taildragger8791]

On 1/18/2025 at 7:42 AM, NYCTK said:

Great question. Correa and Buxton both still positives out there, but otherwise every other defender out there feels like either a negative or a question mark (Lee? Probably a positive?). 

Defense might not be doing the pitching staff any favors. 

There's also the high risk that one or both miss significant time and the defense becomes a total wildcard.