Twins Video
Comparing five hitters who play the same position is fun, and sometimes there can be challenging decisions. Comparing 25 starting pitchers to each other? That's a whole other ballgame. However, many would agree that pitching is the most important part in a ballgame, starting with the starters.
Previous AL Central Comparisons
Part 1: The Infielders/Catchers
Part 2: The Outfielders/CH/Bench
Part 3: Starting Pitchers (Today)
Part 4: Relief Pitchers (Coming Soon)
I’m not sure there is a great way to look at and compare a group of five starters, so I’ll talk you through some of what I did. You’ll see this in the summary charts below too.
The key to this exercise is to not overthink it. That’s the key because then I have a chance. How much research do I want to do? But I also think that sometimes a first reaction gives a person a good feel for how they truly feel about the pitchers and the group.
The first thing I wanted to do was attempt to predict the five rotations. I’ve listed five potential season-opening starters for each team. I also noted a couple of starters who are likely to come off of the injured list at some point during the season. When in doubt, I guessed. One part that is really difficult to account for is injuries and depth. I included Chris Paddack in the Twins starting rotation, even though I think I’d rather see David Festa or Zebby Matthews. I went with Jackson Jobe for the Tigers instead of Kenta Maeda or Keider Montero or Matt Manning.
The Starting Fives
Twins: Pablo Lopez (3.2), Bailey Ober (2.9), Joe Ryan (3.1), Simeon Woods Richardson (1.8), Chris Paddack (1.0)
Guardians: Tanner Bibee (3.3), Gavin Williams (1.3), Luis Ortiz (1.0), Ben Lively (0.8), Triston McKenzie (-1.0), Shane Bieber (IL, 0.8)
Royals: Seth Lugo (4.7), Cole Ragans (4.9), Michael Wacha (3.3), Alec Marsh (1.4), Michael Lorenzen (0.7), Kyle Wright (IL)
Tigers: Tarik Skubal (5.9), Reese Olson (2.4), Casey Mize (1.2), Alex Cobb (0.3), Jackson Jobe (0.0)
White Sox: Jonathan Cannon (0.9), Drew Thorpe (-0.1), Davis Martin (0.6), Shane Smith (R5), Martin Perez (0.5)
So, there are the five AL Central starting rotations. Now what?
First, I kept it pretty simple. Who are the Top 5 starting pitchers in the division? They each get five points. Who are the #6 through #10 starters in the division? They get four points each. Eleven through 15? Three points each. Sixteen through 20? Two points each. The White Sox starters each get one point. That’s not true, though it’s close.
I am pretty sure that we can all agree that right now, Tigers lefty and reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in the division. But then I put Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans, both of the Royals in the two and three spots. I ranked Pablo Lopez as the fourth-best AL Central starter, and Tanner Bibee of the Guardians at #5. Those five pitchers got five points for their teams. That’s 10 points for the Royals and five points for the Twins, Guardians and Tigers.
I think that those five are pretty well agreed upon. It’s right away in Group #2 (6-10) where you can start finding some variance and disagreement in the rankings. It’s my list, and you should create your own list based on your opinions, your research, what you’ve seen or read. It’s your fandom.
For me, I ranked Twins righties Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober in the #6 and #7 spots. Is that a hometown bias? They were followed in my rankings by Michael Wacha (Royals), Gavin Williams (Guardians), and Reese Olson (Tigers).
So real quick, here is how that ranking turns out after ranking the 25 pitchers in order:
Looking at this chart, the Twins and Royals stand at the top of the AL Central in terms of their starting five. However, the Guardians and Tigers are both close. What is the difference between 18 and 16? (I know. The answer is 2, but as it relates to this discussion...)
So I wanted to take it to a little different level to try to gain a little separation.
Since you’ve already ranked your Top 25, from 1 to 25, why not include a second chart. Why not just give one point to the #1 pitcher (Skubal), two points to the #2 pitcher (Lugo), three points for the #3 starter (Ragans), and four points for the Twins for Pablo Lopez in the fourth spot. The #25 starter… maybe White Sox Nick Martini (?)... adds 25 points to the White Sox ledger.
The value in taking time to do this exercise is to provide scale. Instead of #1 being given equal weight as #5, and just four points different from Tarik Skubel to, ummm… let’s pick on a different White Sox starter, maybe Davis Martin (?) at #24?
Which is better? Having three Twins starters in the Top seven in the division, and their #5 starter at #18, or the Royals having two in the top three, three in the top 10, and four in the top 12, but they have a 23 in their fifth spot?
Well, from my personal rankings, here’s how it turned out for me. How does yours look?
So by adding this level of detail, the Royals do separate themselves a little bit from the Twins for the top spot. There is a more noticeable difference between the top two teams and the next two, but the Tigers (largely due to Skubal) finish in third place.
And, as with any preseason projection or prediction, there's no way of knowing who is right or who is wrong. One or two injuries could alter everything. We all know that a team will get starts from at least eight-to-ten pitchers, and as many as probably 20. There are other variables that happen during a regular season.
But this is a fun exercise to find out how you really feel about where the Twins are right now relative to their primary competition. Now it's your turn. Discuss my rankings, if you want, but take a few minutes and create your own rankings.
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