Boom or Bust: Exploring Emmanuel Rodriguez’s Wide-Ranging MLB Potential

[big dog]

My floor for ERod is he unfortunately gets injured year after year and we never get to find out what he might have been. If he can just get off the injury bus it will sure be interesting to see what happens.

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

It's a great little escape in the winter. ZiPS has the best roster as something like this:

 

 

C	Ryan Jeffers
1B	Edouard Julien
2B	Luke Keaschall
3B	Royce Lewis
SS	Carlos Correa
LF	Matt Wallner
CF	Byron Buxton
RF	Emmanuel Rodriguez
DH	Gasper, Mickey
C2	Christian Vázquez
IF	Willi Castro
OF	Trevor Larnach
B4	José Miranda

 

Trevor Larnach gets no love. Gasper is pretty unlikely but I see what ZiPs did. Flip the corner outfielders too.

[DJL44]

17 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

While that sounds like an excellent record, it’s actually not.  Generously, more than 50% of balls and strikes are easy calls, so that means that that success rate drops down to less than 94% for balls that are actually borderline.  Seems less impressive now doesn’t it?  

Do you think hitters are significantly better at recognizing borderline ball/strike pitches than umpires? I don't. Hitters routinely chase pitches out of the zone. 

Quote

The Yankees led MLB in the regular season with a 24.6% chase rate, with the Dodgers tied for second at 25.7%.

How chase rate factors into 2024 World Series

[Rod Carews Birthday]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Do you think hitters are significantly better at recognizing borderline ball/strike pitches than umpires? I don't. Hitters routinely chase pitches out of the zone. 

How chase rate factors into 2024 World Series

No.  I don’t either, at least not especially so.  However, some individuals are certainly better than others/most.  There are guys who almost never swing at a bad pitch and guys who swing at almost everything and still manage to be good like Vlad.  

The team chase rate stats are really kind of fascinating.  The presence of the Dodgers and Yankees at the top makes me think there is a real correlation between (low) chase rate and success.  My closer examination just confuses me though.  (The Twins are around the middle of the pack, slightly below the league average.)  It looks like good chase rate is certainly desirable, but there are teams scattered throughout the list that have both good and poor records.  Not sure I can process this appropriately. 

[Heiny]

My initial reaction to the comp zone being Jaun Soto to Joey Gallo was laughter.  That's quite a spread.  I had to go back to see who wrote the article thinking maybe this was another Randball Stu article.  Still chuckling just a little.  But really, it was a fun read.  Maybe we should let him reach the majors first and let him show his own capabilities because we all know that prospects are suspects until they're not.  He is a top prospect at this point but let's see what he does in the bigs before judging.  Or maybe he will become an outstanding flute player!

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

I mean...it's the offseason and we all knew the Twins weren't doing anything. So, I don't know what you expect. 

Anyways, Fangraphs posted the Twins ZiPS projections! Rodriguez has a very weird line of 211/343/397. Seems about right. He's going to be a very, very frustrating player. 

 

Zips projections had Andrew Stevenson getting 300 A for the Twins.  Zips is worthless for individual players 

[NYCTK]

Just now, old nurse said:

Zips projections had Andrew Stevenson getting 300 A for the Twins.  Zips is worthless for individual players 

It doesn't really project playing time. It's just an estimated baseline of current skill. 

[mnfireman]

Since umpiring and robo umps was brought up, how about MLB and MLB umpires start enforcing the rule that catchers must have both feet in the catchers box or a catcher's balk can be called. Would keep the catcher more centered behind the plate, which allows the umpire to do so also, taking the guess work out calling pitches that miss away from where the catcher is set up.

[jmlease1]

57 minutes ago, Heiny said:

My initial reaction to the comp zone being Jaun Soto to Joey Gallo was laughter.  That's quite a spread.  I had to go back to see who wrote the article thinking maybe this was another Randball Stu article.  Still chuckling just a little.  But really, it was a fun read.  Maybe we should let him reach the majors first and let him show his own capabilities because we all know that prospects are suspects until they're not.  He is a top prospect at this point but let's see what he does in the bigs before judging.  Or maybe he will become an outstanding flute player!

it's less of a spread if you're only thinking about Gallo circa 2017-2021, rather than the version we've seen over the last couple of seasons. Gallo was a good player in Texas! And while Soto as a hitter is an insanely high ceiling, the fact that Soto is an increasingly poor defender, what you're really talking about for a range is "quality starter/borderline all-star" to "all-star to MVP".

It's very optimistic, in that projecting any player who hasn't made it to MLB yet to be an all-star is terribly optimistic...but the talent is there. he's been a consensus top 100 prospect 2 years in a row, and should be again this season. I think putting even a top end comp to Soto is going too far, just because Soto has been so insanely good as a hitter immediately. Comping Emma to Soto or Votto (even if there are some stylistic and approach similarities) is comping against Hall of Fame level players. nice to dream about, but exceptionally unlikely.

But a young Gallo or Adam Dunn + defense is a) not a bad comp, b) would be a very valuable player, and c) not ridiculous.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Zips projections had Andrew Stevenson getting 300 A for the Twins.  Zips is worthless for individual players 

FangRaphs provides Zips projections for Kirilloff and Margot in their Twins writeup, so I don't know how much care is invested in the process, either.  (Or else I am misreading.)

[Linus]

I’m very concerned about EmRod.  Big league pitchers will not let him get away with being so passive at the plate.  They will attack him and force him to swing and with his swing and miss rate it’s not going to end well.  Maybe he can make an adjustment but as is I’m not a fan.  I like that he can be a plus corner outfielder so that gives him a little more rope.  However I would trade him for a young RH outfielder that doesn’t have platoon splits.  And by all means if the kid hits in St Paul give him a shot because there is only one way to know for sure.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

I’m very concerned about EmRod.  Big league pitchers will not let him get away with being so passive at the plate.  They will attack him and force him to swing and with his swing and miss rate it’s not going to end well.  Maybe he can make an adjustment but as is I’m not a fan.  I like that he can be a plus corner outfielder so that gives him a little more rope.  However I would trade him for a young RH outfielder that doesn’t have platoon splits.  And by all means if the kid hits in St Paul give him a shot because there is only one way to know for sure.

This is a decision the Twins need to make soon. A tryout is not going to work if the team is just seeing what EmRod can accomplish. Either there are doubts where Falvey interests other teams (Pittsburgh, San Diego, Atlanta, or more) and acquires real talent in return, or the Twins put him in the outfield and let him play. Forget St. Paul because his physical talent have reached a point where he needs MLB time. 

I have no idea if other teams have enough interest to offer something significant for Emmanuel Rodriguez.  

Right off the top of my head I cannot think of a trade where the Twins acquire a relatively equal  right-handed hitting outfielder for Emmanuel. If the Twins don't fully believe in him perhaps EmRod could be combined with one or two other players in a deal that satisfies both teams.

[tony&rodney]

Again, Linus. What is your disagreement? Who can ER be traded for as you suggested earlier?

Did you disagree with Milwaukee letting Chourio struggle for half a season? San Diego and Merrill?

[Linus]

35 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Again, Linus. What is your disagreement? Who can ER be traded for as you suggested earlier?

Did you disagree with Milwaukee letting Chourio struggle for half a season? San Diego and Merrill?

The forget St Paul part.  He absolutely needs to prove himself.

[tony&rodney]

38 minutes ago, Linus said:

The forget St Paul part.  He absolutely needs to prove himself.

Ok, that is a fair comment. Having watched at least fifty of his at bats, I believe his time has come but can accept that others don't agree with that. A fair number of good MLB players have spent very little time at AAA, but I can accept disagreement.

[KBJ1]

Micky Gasper as DH? Lord help us! At this point we have no other choice but to put Rodriguez in and sink or swim.

LF has been a gaping hole since Rosario was let go. If Rodriguez has speed and defense, that is something we need desperately. Hope for the best.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

If Rodriguez has speed and defense,

He does.

[saviking]

On 1/13/2025 at 12:13 PM, NYCTK said:

Comps bWAR -

Schwarber: 15.4

Happ: 17.7

Gallo: 15.4

Only to say, Twins fans gotta get over their hatred of Gallo. He had a pretty good career. Just not with the Twins. A career like Gallo should be very welcome for a second tier prospect.

With a player that looks like he will similarly strike out in 1/3 of his plate appearances (at least initially) that really limits his ceiling. But like you showed with Happ, there's always a chance he improves upon that specific skill in time. 

 

I got over Gallo when we released him

[arby58]

On 1/13/2025 at 3:03 PM, gman said:

How many of his at bats did you review yourself? Where the strike zone is lined up? Sometimes a poor call early in an at bat costs a player an at bat. Not just the third strike.

The first article is about all balls and strikes, not just third strikes.