The X-Factor in the 2025 Starting Rotation, David Festa Demands a Closer Examination - Caretaker Exclusive

[Matthew Trueblood]

The extent to which the Twins are able to go out and find new talent beyond the borders of their organization will play a role in determining how well the team bounces back in 2025. The success or failure of young players still getting their feet under them in the big leagues for the team will play a much greater one.

Image courtesy of © Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Most conversations about the Twins' starting rotation for 2025 center on the big three veterans at the front end of that group. Undeniably, Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan are solid, playoff-caliber hurlers, but the key to the team having a great overall rotation might very well be sophomore fourth starter David Festa. He made 14 appearances in the big leagues in 2024 and had a less-than-stellar 4.90 ERA, but his strikeout (27.8%) and walk (8.3%) rates marked him as better than that. His FIP was 3.76, and despite an approach centered on high fastballs, he didn't give up a disqualifying number of home runs. His season offers a lot of promise for the immediate future, even if he's unlikely to work six innings per start anytime soon.

We ought to talk more about Festa, though. He gets overshadowed by his more established and experienced rotation mates, but his upside might be as high as any of theirs. So far, he's much less well-rounded than they are, but there's time yet for that to change. He might need another pitch in his arsenal. He might need to learn to sequence and locate in more varied ways. Most plausibly, perhaps, he needs to gradually develop the stamina and command to keep attacking hitters with his best stuff deeper into games, including (gasp) the third time through the batting order. Getting his development right and identifying the places where he needs to make big strides to reach his potential stands near the top of the Twins' list of vital tasks entering 2025. Let's see how much of that work we can do, ourselves.

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[LambchoP]

I'm excited for Festa. I think if we trade Paddack and find a stable veteran to be our fifth SP, Festa can start the year in AAA which would be best for him. Let him finish off his development as both him and Mathews were rushed last year. I think if Festa can build up more endurance, maybe learn a fourth pitch, I can see him being a number 2-3 type starter similar to Joe Ryan. 

[tony&rodney]

In some ways Festa is a key for the success of the 2025 Twins. There doesn't appear to be any hopes that the Twins go to $150 million with the 26 person roster payroll. In fact, the scuttle is a firm number near $130 million. This necessitates a step forward in trust in a couple of younger players as well as seeing Falvey complete a couple of trades to a) reduce salary and; b) increase talent. There are options and a plan that counts on David Festa in the starting rotation is a good start. Currently, I have more belief in Woods Richardson, Festa, and Matthews than I do in a handful of the Twins position players.

[JD-TWINS]

Festa is IN the rotation April 1st. Whether he’s 4th or 5th guy isn’t important to me, it may be important to SWR?

His issue isn’t stuff or his numbers first time through wouldn’t be as good as they are. Approach is the problem and to me, that’s a coaching staff/Catcher issue. Festa could use a 4th pitch that was sub 91MPH for sure. Maybe an alternate grip on his change-up? Maybe a curveball once an inning?

The length will come with success. If a guy can’t get through the 4th inning without throwing 32 pitches in the inning, he probably won’t get past 5 1/3 total. With an approach change for second time through, he may average 16-18 pitches per inning…………that’s 75 pitches through 5 innings ………he could get through 6 innings 50% of the time!

I don’t think that either SWR nor Festa can be counted on (expected to) for more than 160 innings. Essentially, Ober level of use in ‘23.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I am really excited about Festa's potential. His strikeout stuff is legit, and if he can learn even an average 4th pitch (or even slightly below average) I think he could easily vault into our top 3. 

I also think it'll be interesting how the bullpen is constructed to assist with the rotation. I look at the list now, and there are 9 guys who currently will be working towards gaining a spot (Jax, Duran, Alcala, Stewart, Sands, Varland, Tonkin, Topa and Castellano, let alone Funderburk, Henriquez or more additions this winter.) I have to think they may carry more guys this year who can/will go multiple innings. Even Rocco said last week that they are toying with the idea of employing Jax in a similar role to how Detroit used Tyler Holton last season. Holton started 9 games and threw 95 innings in 2024. So if they do roll with a 5 man rotation, I have to think they will plan for MORE depth to be had with guys who can give multiple innings than they did in 2024.

[gman]

I'd take a 5 man rotation of Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR & Festa. Bring up a couple guys from 3A during the year to get a few spot starts and the starting can be good.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

don’t think that either SWR nor Festa can be counted on (expected to) for more than 160 innings. Essentially, Ober level of use in ‘23.

Agree. If your #4 and #5 starting pitchers are throwing 150-175 innings of near 4.00 ERA, this is a very good thing. The pitching looks pretty good for 2025. The position side ...?

[purplesoldier4u]

Is that enough to leapfrog Cleveland, Detroit, and KC? Offensively, this team just is not built well enough to score runs, so (as always) pitching and defense will be the key to 90+ wins. Dark days lie ahead of us.

[mikelink45]

I like the Festa, SWR additions to the rotation and the movement away from Paddack and other marginal veterans.  Zebby and Morris are numbers 6 and 7/

[TL]

Twins are destined to bring in a veteran 5th starter on minimal contract for depth and so that Festa can continue to develop in the minors. And that’s probably exactly the right decision. 

I’d love to say he’s in the rotation from day 1 but in reality we will need 8-9 starters to get through the year and he could use some time to continue developing (hopefully a 4th pitch). 

That said, I’d say his ceiling is higher than all but Lopez. 

[Doctor Wu]

I have confidence that Festa will be a valuable member of the rotation, but I'm still not sure if that starts in early 2025 or not. And honestly, whether he starts the season with the big club or not is not that important. Just keep him healthy and let him develop another pitch if that's deemed necessary. I like his tools and makeup so I think his future is bright. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

I have confidence that Festa will be a valuable member of the rotation, but I'm still not sure if that starts in early 2025 or not. And honestly, whether he starts the season with the big club or not is not that important. Just keep him healthy and let him develop another pitch if that's deemed necessary. I like his tools and makeup so I think his future is bright. 

I agree that Festa can start in AAA providing the Twins add someone similar to Miller, Cease, or Jones. No retreads should be elevated above Festa however.

[Otaknam]

Festa is their best hope for a starter taking the next step, just like Ober did. I wonder if the team thinks he needs to add another pitch during the off season, or just work to refine what he has and add a couple of mph to his fastball. Hopefully a couple of others from the list of SWR, Matthews, Lewis, Morris, Raya, and Prielipp emerge to be solid starters. Prielipp could move fast if he is healthy and pitching well. 

[laloesch]

On 12/17/2024 at 2:18 PM, purplesoldier4u said:

Is that enough to leapfrog Cleveland, Detroit, and KC? Offensively, this team just is not built well enough to score runs, so (as always) pitching and defense will be the key to 90+ wins. Dark days lie ahead of us.

I agree.  The big problem is the offensive side.  If Correa, Buxton, Lewis have injury filled campaigns again in 2025, it's gonna be hard to improve on things without some serious additions maybe at 1st base, DH, the outfield.

[AlwaysinModeration]

No offense to Festa, but it seems to me the “X Factor” in the Twins rotation for 2025 is Griffin Jax.