Twins Fans: You’re Gonna Get Amed Rosario and You’re Gonna Like It

[Riverbrian]

22 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, I'm not high on Martin at all, but when it comes to not getting the job done, I'll take the unknown over the known.

The Unknown... Austin Martin or any younger player has the ability of taking their experiences and raising the bar. They are still controllable with options.

The known player Rosario has the ability of taking their experiences and playing for somebody else next year.  

Where is that raffle drum... I'll reach my hand into it. 

[Coach]

Keep Castro. Keep Santana.  Successful.  Proven.

[Mike Sixel]

Just teach Lewis to play LF. Play him there against LHP. Play him at third against RHP. There, platoon partner in. 

[old nurse]

7 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

525 win % is great for a TC manager.  

The first 9 years Gardy’s teams averaged 89 wins a season, which is more than decent. From 2011 his teams averaged 66 wins. Did Grady suddenly become a bad manager or was the detriment things like Scott Diamond rather than Johan Santana was your ace?  

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, old nurse said:

The first 9 years Gardy’s teams averaged 89 wins a season, which is more than decent. From 2011 his teams averaged 66 wins. Did Grady suddenly become a bad manager or was the detriment things like Scott Diamond rather than Johan Santana was your ace?  

People that don't think it is 99% the players, I don't get those people.....

[RpR]

Why would the Twins want a banjo hitter, --  (I have no dislike for banjo hitters but many here do not see beyond the bat) -- who makes Julien look like an all-star fielder?

[Fatbat]

Like it or not, give Castro or Rosario a home in the field and they will likely suffer a major injury. Some guys just aren’t built for 1 position.  I do like Rosario and would be in favor of signing him.  

[Doctor Wu]

23 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Like the Twins have ever shied away from putting a guy with absolutely NO business in the outfield in the outfield. 

Miguel Sano, where have you gone?

[Doctor Wu]

23 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

The Twins are at their lowest point at least in terms of fan interest in the Falvey years. 

Sadly, I think this is a very true statement. 

[Doctor Wu]

18 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

Speaking of Donovan Solano.....why not sign him to platoon at first? He was ok with the Twins, he put up decent numbers in limited action with the Padres, he's right-handed, he's probably cheap, and he's available.  

I would welcome him back in a heartbeat. His numbers with the Padres last year more more than decent. 

[Riverbrian]

19 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Ahmed Rosario is NOT a utility player. He's a shortstop who plugged an emergency hole a couple times, but he had never been deployed as a utility guy until the Rays decided to see how it worked, and Rosario was a disaster in the outfield. Rosario played 7 games in his entire MiLB career at 3B. SS was the only position he ever played.

2017 - 100% SS
2018 - 100% SS
2019 -  99.8% SS, 0.2% CF
2020 - 100% SS
2021 - 89.2% SS, 10.8% CF
2022 - 96.5% SS, 3.5% LF
2023 - 81.1% SS, 18.9% 2B 

Most who use the term utility don't notice that it really means... NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO BE A STARTER. 

If you are not good enough to be a starter. You have to play multiple positions if you want to play and presto... just like that... by magic... you are now a utility player. There are 7 positions (minus pitcher and catcher) to cover. On the 26 man roster there are only 3 NON-STARTERS (minus catcher). There isn't the roster space to have a specific backup 2B to backup the designated starting 2B or a specific 3B or a specific backup SS. The non-starter has got to cover multiple positions so he becomes utility regardless if they are good at the positions or not. if the player can add some OF... better still... more avenues to playing time for the NON-STARTER.  It's is isn't hard to notice how many players that are not good enough to be a starter have a utility resume. It simply becomes a necessity. 

If the Twins sign Rosario... they are shopping in the utility aisle but actually shopping in the NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO BE A STARTER aisle at the super market and this will make him utility regardless if he's good at it or not

When they traded for Margot... they were shopping in the NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO BE A Starter aisle at the super market. When they replace Rosario next year... they will be shopping in the Not good enough to be a starter aisle. 

This is the reality of this discussion. The Twins are looking for dented cans. And they will end up giving this dented can 300 plus AB's. 

[DJL44]

18 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

any younger player has the ability of taking their experiences and raising the bar. They are still controllable with options.

The known player Rosario has the ability of taking their experiences and playing for somebody else next year.  

Where is that raffle drum... I'll reach my hand into it. 

FYI - Amed Rosario is only one year older than Michael Helman. If Rosario is a known bad player, then so is Helman.

[wipster]

Thinking of course that the Pohlads would never sell, I said after seeing the Twins "do nothing and hope" approach last year that I was done with them until we had real owners. Literally days later they put the team up for sale!!! WOW!! Why didn't I say that 20 years ago???!!!

 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

FYI - Amed Rosario is only one year older than Michael Helman. If Rosario is a known bad player, then so is Helman.

Thanks for the FYI, Not sure I needed that but thanks nonetheless. 

1. I don't know what Helman is or could be. I won't pretend to. I'm not pretending to. I'm not even saying that Helman specifically is the 26 man choice over someone like Rosario. I honestly don't know. I'm just against Rosario and generally for players with a chance for actual development instead.   

2. I'm saying that the rostering of players like Rosario is a fundamental roster construction problem that will feed itself into a monster that needs to repeat itself year over year. I'm saying it's a solution that usually doesn't fix the short term problem it is designed to fix and it stops dead longer term solutions that could to stop this train. 

3. But... If I must use Helman as the benchmark because you are using him as the benchmark. Helman has 10 Major League PA's compared to Rosario's 3,713. If you know what Helman is based on 10 Major League PA's. OK... I'll bow to your evaluation powers. However, I hope you forgive me if I don't trust your assessment just yet. I certainly don't trust mine.   

4. I'm saying that losing a Rooker happens... I agree but this is how it happens or at least this makes it much more likely that you will lose a Rooker. It's not that we lost Rooker... It's who we kept or signed instead. We didn't just lose Rooker (which happens) we kept players who were out of baseball shortly afterwards instead. If we sign Rosario and give him a roster spot. We are just signing Belisle instead of handing the ball to Nick Anderson all over again. We are just wasting a roster spot on a specialist and have done nothing for the future of this club for the purpose of carrying a player for a year come hell or high water who will be gone next year, A player who typically hits average to slightly above average vs lefties for 150 AB's and hits well below average against righties for 180 AB's.    

5. This team either develops or it dies. Pete Alonso isn't coming and Amed Rosario isn't Pete Alonso. 

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

3. But... If I must use Helman as the benchmark because you are using him as the benchmark. Helman has 10 Major League PA's compared to Rosario's 3,713. If you know what Helman is based on 10 Major League PA's. OK... I'll bow to your evaluation powers. However, I hope you forgive me if I don't trust your assessment just yet.   

Helman has 847 plate appearances in AAA that translate to a 650 OPS in MLB and he's not a gold-glove candidate on defense.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Helman has 847 plate appearances in AAA that translate to a 650 OPS in MLB and he's not a gold-glove candidate on defense.

Again

You are using Helman for a bench mark not I.  

However... Since Helman is your guy. Out of curiosity... How does an .800 OPS translate to a 650 OPS in MLB. Is there some sort of translation converstion chart out there.

Aaron Judge had a .842 career minor league OPS, a .781 AAA OPS over .689 PA's and a 1.010 Major League Career Number. 

Willy Adames has 864 PA's in AAA with a .777 OPS and a .766 MLB career that was .794 last year. 

Luis Arraez had a .757 OPS in 359 PA's in AA. Just 82 PA's in AAA for .782 OPS and a .790 Career OPS in the Majors. 

Royce Lewis has a career .769 minor league OPS and a career .825 OPS. Matt Wallner has career .896 in the minors and a career .866 in the majors. Trevor Larnach has a .838 OPS in the minors and a career .726 in the majors. 

Are there different translation charts? 

However to be clear... You are using Helman for a bench mark... I want everyone to know that I am not using Helman as a bench mark... you are. I'm yelling about the fundamental problem that will repeat itself over and over again when you keep filling roster spots with specialists like Amed Rosario. Amed Rosario will be gone next year after a so-so year at best and we will be searching for the next one next year to have a so-so year at best. While the Rooker's or Helman's crash and burn against the clock.  

Many say that job #1 for every front office is winning championships. OK it is... But Job #1 of every front office to help them in that regard is this: Increasing the value of your players. If you increase the value of your players they can either help you directly or they bring back more in trades with other clubs which indirectly helps you win baseball games. 

Amed Rosario will not increase in value. Amed Rosario will only block the potential increase in value for Wallner, Larnach. Amed Rosario or his specialist look alikes that follow him will only block the potential increase in value for Erod and Jenkins. Choosing a Garlick makes it much easier to lose a Rooker. It's not who we lost... it's who we lost them for. It's the spinning of the wheels and the mud left behind. 

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, wipster said:

Thinking of course that the Pohlads would never sell, I said after seeing the Twins "do nothing and hope" approach last year that I was done with them until we had real owners.

I'm right there with you. I will probably come back once they sell. But my entire fandom right now is that if a bystander critic. I will not support this club financially in any respect. The front office has made it clear winning is not important. Here's hoping the sale happens soon and the organization can redirect to compete in 2026. They have decent pieces, it wouldn't be too hard to do. 

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Most who use the term utility don't notice that it really means... NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO BE A STARTER. 

If you are not good enough to be a starter. You have to play multiple positions if you want to play and presto... just like that... by magic... you are now a utility player...

This is nonsense. Utility player = player who plays many positions; who isn't entrenched at a specific starting position.

• Willi Castro is good enough to be a starter, but he's been used as a utility player.
• Marwin Gonzalez was good enough to be a starter, but he was used as a utility player.
• Tommy Edman was just signed as a utility player for 5yrs and $74MM. You think the Dodgers are paying $74MM to a guy not good enough to play?

On the other side of things, why wasn't Nick Gordon used as a utility player by Miami? Why didn't Detroit use Javy Baez as a utility player? Why wasn't Trevor Larnach used at catcher and shortstop years ago? None of those guys were good enough to be a starter.

See Baseball Reference. I trust that's a fairly trustworthy source for baseball related information? I emboldened your unpopular (due to being incorrect, IMO) definition of the term at the end. 
https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Utility_player#:~:text=A utility player or utility,with a lot of flexibility.

Quote

A utility player or utility man is a player who can appear at several different positions, specifically both infield and outfield positions. Such players are prized for their roles on the bench, especially in the modern era of large pitching staffs and reduced benches, as they provide teams with a lot of flexibility. There are also more specifically utility infielders, who back up usually at second base, shortstop and third base - players like Randy Velarde have filled this role for years. Occasionally, a utility player will be so effective, such as Tony Phillips, that they get a regular spot in the lineup for years to come without ever holding a position as a regular. The term is sometimes used to refer to any backup position player, but this is a far less common usage.

 

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

This is nonsense. Utility player = player who plays many positions; who isn't entrenched at a specific starting position.

• Willi Castro is good enough to be a starter, but he's been used as a utility player.
• Marwin Gonzalez was good enough to be a starter, but he was used as a utility player.
• Tommy Edman was just signed as a utility player for 5yrs and $74MM. You think the Dodgers are paying $74MM to a guy not good enough to play?

On the other side of things, why wasn't Nick Gordon used as a utility player by Miami? Why didn't Detroit use Javy Baez as a utility player? Why wasn't Trevor Larnach used at catcher and shortstop years ago? None of those guys were good enough to be a starter.

See Baseball Reference. I trust that's a fairly trustworthy source for baseball related information? I emboldened your unpopular (due to being incorrect, IMO) definition of the term at the end. 
https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Utility_player#:~:text=A utility player or utility,with a lot of flexibility.

 

Nonsense?

Be careful here! 

I can respond in kind if you'd like. 

Your Call.

How do you want this conversation to proceed? 

I wasn't even arguing your post when I responded to it. I was responding to your post which was responding to someone else's use of the term utility. I was also objecting to the term albeit for different reasons.  

Now... what type of attitude do you want me to use in response to your "Nonsense" post. Would you like to try again? Let me know. I can go either direction. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Are there different translation charts? 

Yes. There are MLE translation charts for AAA to MLB performance. The general drop in performance is 100-200 points compared to what the player is doing in AAA. The players you have noted were quite young in AAA and still improving which is why their numbers in MLB are comparable or better to what they did in AAA. However, if you only look at what they did at AAA in the same season as when they were promoted to MLB you will see, on average, a dropoff of 150 points of OPS depending on league and ballpark context.

League Equivalencies | Sabermetrics Library

Michael Helman is 28 years old, the age when baseball players are at their peak performance at the plate. His actual AAA performance minus 150 points should be a good estimate for his MLB performance. If his performance is better, then he got better. He's equally likely to get better as Amed Rosario.

Helman is relevant because the current projection has him getting 300+ PAs on the 26-man roster. That's who they would be replacing by signing a veteran like Rosario. I think both options are a bad bet for a team with playoff aspirations.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Helman is relevant because the current projection has him getting 300+ PAs on the 26-man roster. That's who they would be replacing by signing a veteran like Rosario. I think both options are a bad bet for a team with playoff aspirations.

Good Post

I'll high five you on the final sentence when you say both options are bad. That is the probably likely outcome in my opinion but I'll stick with I don't know and I'll add that in a small measure and small measure only... I'm at least willing to give Helman the benefit of the doubt where Rosario doesn't get that benefit. 

I'll just say this... Helman while most likely not a good option in the end is at least a better option over Rosario for these reasons: 

1. Helman has options and can be sent down with ease if he is indeed a bad option. Even released with probably no consequence to the future of the Twins. 

2. Helman instead of Rosario keeps the vein clogging presence of Rosario off the roster and out of the system. That is ultimately what is most important to me. Keeping Rosario off the roster period. I'll give you Mr. or Mrs. DJL44 a roster spot over Rosario 8 days a week even if I knew that you were going to strike out every single time you stepped up to the plate. Why would I choose you... as is... whoever you are... over Rosario. Because I can get rid of you. With 6 years of service time. Rosario will just stick around and act as Cholesterol in the heart of the development system. Much Like Margot, Gallo, Morrison required something from the Statin class of medication. That's what is most important to me. 

In the end... I don't care about Helman right now. Much like I didn't worry all that much about Rooker back then. I don't know, the front office doesn't know... But, if Helman shows up in Sacramento after no opportunity with us and his OPS's is .650 as projected by collective analysis or if he produces higher OPS somehow someway. I'll connect those dots to the moment that the Twins chose 1 year of Rosario at .670 OPS instead. My criticism won't be that we lost Helman... it will be that we kept Rosario. 

Keep in mind, Helman and all of the other young players in the system fighting for an opportunity don't have to perform like Rooker did to justify their selection over someone like Rosario... They don't even have to perform better than Carlos Santana for that matter. Helman, Keirsay, Martin, Miranda, Larnach, Wallner, Erod, Jenkins, Julien, Keaschall... Whoever is affected by Rosario utilization. All they need to do is perform equal or .001 percentage point better than the low bar that Rosario brings to town. Two million dollars not spent on a low bar plus a roster spot used on someone who might be back next year and the potential to get better makes it a win before you even calculate the stats. 

We develop or we die. Free Agency is not our friend. 

[old nurse]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

People that don't think it is 99% the players, I don't get those people.....

The 1% is knowing how to use the players to the best of their ability. Last year would not be a good year to judge Baldelli. Given a right handed pinch hitter who couldn’t pinch hit and left handed batters who needed a pinch hitter. Then with pitching, with the 4-9 starters, having 4 out of 6 being unproven and the other 2 were an injury waiting to happen was  a potential for disaster that did happen . To many his record says a failure. With what he had to work with he did well to keep them in contention. 

[dxpavelka]

17 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Miguel Sano, where have you gone?

Willie Norwood.  And he was actually an OF. 

[RpR]

On 12/13/2024 at 7:04 AM, Riverbrian said:

Most who use the term utility don't notice that it really means... NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO BE A STARTER. 

If you are not good enough to be a starter. You have to play multiple positions if you want to play and presto... just like that... by magic... you are now a utility player. There are 7 positions (minus pitcher and catcher) to cover. On the 26 man roster there are only 3 NON-STARTERS (minus catcher). There isn't the roster space to have a specific backup 2B to backup the designated starting 2B or a specific 3B or a specific backup SS. The non-starter has got to cover multiple positions so he becomes utility regardless if they are good at the positions or not. if the player can add some OF... better still... more avenues to playing time for the NON-STARTER.  It's is isn't hard to notice how many players that are not good enough to be a starter have a utility resume. It simply becomes a necessity. 

If the Twins sign Rosario... they are shopping in the utility aisle but actually shopping in the NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO BE A STARTER aisle at the super market and this will make him utility regardless if he's good at it or not

When they traded for Margot... they were shopping in the NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO BE A Starter aisle at the super market. When they replace Rosario next year... they will be shopping in the Not good enough to be a starter aisle. 

This is the reality of this discussion. The Twins are looking for dented cans. And they will end up giving this dented can 300 plus AB's. 

If they saddly get Rosario, they will be shopping in the not as good as Margot aile.

[Riverbrian]

On 12/12/2024 at 11:33 AM, bean5302 said:

Ahmed Rosario is NOT a utility player. He's a shortstop who plugged an emergency hole a couple times, but he had never been deployed as a utility guy until the Rays decided to see how it worked, and Rosario was a disaster in the outfield. Rosario played 7 games in his entire MiLB career at 3B. SS was the only position he ever played.

2017 - 100% SS
2018 - 100% SS
2019 -  99.8% SS, 0.2% CF
2020 - 100% SS
2021 - 89.2% SS, 10.8% CF
2022 - 96.5% SS, 3.5% LF
2023 - 81.1% SS, 18.9% 2B 
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/amed-rosario/15518/stats?position=SS

Quick crash course on defensive stuff for people who don't know. 
DRS = Defensive Runs Saved. Preferred metric for Baseball Reference
UZR/150 = Ultimate Zone Rating over 150 games. My preferred advanced metric because it's much more stable than the other two, and it projects over a full year.
OAA = Outs Above Average - (Statcast/MLB) Fangraphs' preferred metric.
RngR = I highlighted this in the outfield for Rosario because his range is a huge problem. Notice how Rosario's range in CF is actually better than the corners. That's because CF is easier to play as balls don't slice and hook as much in CF, there's just way more ground to cover. The reason Rosario is terrible in the corners is he can't read the ball off the bat or the ball's trajectory well so he gets a super late jump on it or runs bad routes because he has never been an outfielder.

I'm not saying there is no possible way the Twins would sign a SS who can't hit well, and try to deploy him as a utility player, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Also, the Pohlads signing off any any free agents before Falvey purges some salary seems unlikely to me. The ownership proved they were unwilling to even expand payroll a small amount over budget last year at the deadline.

The Thumbs down was a nice touch. OK. I now understand the tone of this discussion. 

Let me help you out. I understand what is super utility and what is just plain ole' utility. I can tell you exactly how many players in baseball played multiple positions last year across all 30 teams. I understand Baez under Joe Maddon and Baez with the Tigers.  I understand Tommy Edman. I also understand the utilization tendencies of teams like the Dodgers, Twins and Rays and can compare them to how the Braves tend to shy away from such things.

If you don't understand that I understand how Castro was utilized last year with a team that I watched nearly every inning of nearly every game and posted acres of real estate on this website about his utilization. I really can't help you but it seems to have led you to feeling the need to attack someone who was actually agreeing with you and you did so in an elementary fashion. 

Let me help you out. I read your post. You typed "he had never been deployed as a utility guy until the Rays decided to see how it worked, and Rosario was a disaster in the outfield". I was agreeing with you. The Rays preferred Walls and Cabellero at SS. Rosario wasn't good enough to be a starter so... they utilized him in a utility role. Not just the Rays. The Dodgers in the 12 games that he wore Dodger blue. He got into 5 with 3 of them in the starting lineup. He played two games at SS, 2 at 2B and 1 at 3B. He had a utility role because he wasn't good enough to be a starter. I was agreeing with you. After the Dodgers released him for nothing. The Reds picked him up. He played ZERO Games at SS. He played 11 games as a DH, 6 in RF and 4 at 2B. He wasn't good enough to be a starter so... he did the utility dance in Cincy as well. 

Do you get it? I was agreeing with you. Yet since you think my agreeing with you was nonsense. You opened that door... So OK... here ya go.

You condescendingly directed me to a b-ref definition of utility as if it was some bible verse that I need to familiarize myself. You touted b-ref as "a fairly trustworthy source of baseball information?" like you threw down a trump card while in your previous post (quoted above) you literally label B-Refs preferred defensive zone rating metric (DRS) while you state that you prefer UZR/150. Did you actually mean to infer that I should just hang out here in the elementary school while you have the ability to pick and choose as you please or did I read that wrong? 

And while we are on the subject. I wouldn't have mentioned this because I was trying to agree with you.  Since that doesn't matter in your world. You do realize that in your attempt to diminish the utility value of Amed Rosario (which I'm ok with because I agree with you) you actually said "My preferred advanced metric because it's much more stable than the other two, and it projects over a full year". And then you circled his year by year OZR/150 numbers which show the stability at the SS position of:

2021 1.6

2022 6.8

2023  -4.4

2024 12.0 

And then you proceed to breakdown the small sample size numbers of 18 games 123 innings in CF played with Cleveland in 2021 and compare them with his work in the corner OF which was 6 games and 45 Innings in left field with Cleveland in 2022 along with 1 game and 3 innings of work in left field with the Mets in 2019.  His right field work was 26 games for 183.1 innings all last year with Tampa and Cincy. 

You literally did analysis on those small samples. Listen... I was trying to agree with you and I'm going to assume that you know that sample size is critical when it comes to stabilizing zone metrics. You need a large sample or it don't mean much because of the high percentage of routine. 

I'm also going to give you the benefit of the doubt that you understand what UZR/150 does is extrapolate that 18 game small sample UZR until it's 150 games worth. I assume you understand that it takes an unstable small sample and multiplies it.

What I don't understand: Why are you trying to tear him apart as a utility option defensively using an 18 game small sample 3 years ago extrapolated to 150 games claiming it's stability while you proudly post year to year unstable numbers over a much larger sample size at the SS position. And then... then... you circle it. 

Never Mind... I was trying to agree with you. He isn't good enough.