Why Don't We See Recently Drafted Pitchers Throw in Affiliated Games?

[Jamie Cameron]

Have you ever wondered what happens after a pitching prospect is drafted? Where do they go, and what do they do? Why do we see many pitchers shut things down for the summer after the draft?

Twins Daily had a chance to chat with Twins Assistant Pitching Coordinator Nat Ballenberg to find out. Let’s dig in.

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

After a prospect signs, their first stop will be the Twins complex in Fort Myers, Florida. While our orientation as fans is to want to see a prospect in game action as soon as possible, that’s not the priority of the organization—nor should it be.

The focus of the org is on building pitchers' arms up to game readiness in as safe a fashion as possible. The first step is finding out how much drafted pitchers have been throwing. Teams have access to information from high school and college programs as a baseline here, but they’ll line this information up against reporting from prospects themselves. There are no shortcuts in initial programming, and no deviations from programming designed by the team. If a prospect is excelling or throwing really effectively, they’re sticking to the plan no matter what, because there’s nothing worth compromising the health of a pitching prospect for.

Before we dig into how teams construct these programs, it’s worth pointing out a cultural and lifestyle shift that being drafted brings for so many players–especially prep arms. Players are moving to an unfamiliar place at the behest of their new (and often first) employer. As such, you can think of post-draft camp as an onboarding or job training. Let’s liken it to you starting a new job. Do you jump straight into the nuts and bolts of everyday work? No. You learn the tools, systems and structures that will support your work, you complete your phishing alert training, etc. The same is true for recently drafted baseball players.

Pitching prospects get introduced to the culture of the organization, in addition to some basic analytical principles. In their first full season (i.e. the following season), the org will start to tweak their pitch mixes, work more aggressively in pursuit of velocity and command goals, but not yet. Post-draft camp is the time to build the knowledge foundation on which this future work relies.

The second major undertaking is engaging in the org’s throwing program. This is designed by pitching coordinators and executed under the aegis of the complex pitching coaches. Want to know how likely you are to see a recently drafted pitching prospect in game action? You can directly map it backward from their college or high-school pitching workload.

When they begin to engage in organizational throwing programs, prospects are bucketed into groups depending on how long it will take them to be ready for professional game action. Let’s take two examples to illustrate this.

First: a prep pitcher who has thrown comparatively little in a high-school season that ended in early June. The MLB Draft moving back to the end of July means a prospect in this scenario may not have been engaged in coordinated throwing programming for 4-6 weeks. There’s simply not enough time to ramp up their programming to the extent needed to get into pro games. That doesn’t mean they’re not facing hitters. Live BP, intrasquad games and the like are part of their routines, but affiliated games are a different environment and a different stressor for which, for many pitchers, there is not enough time to prepare.

The opposite track is a college pitcher whose team had a good season and made a deep postseason run. After completing their season, they have been throwing consistently in a summer league like the Cape or Northwoods. Those are the kind of arms you’ll likely see in sanctioned games during the same season they are drafted. 

Drafted prospects go into the offseason with throwing programs and guidance from the team, in accordance and with respect to MLB rules, and come back for their first full professional season with (hopefully) a number of important boxes checked:

• They’ve onboarded to the culture and development philosophies of the drafting organization.
• They’ve engaged in some basic education around analytical and pitching development concepts.
• They’ve engaged in a throwing program to build their arms up for professional game action.

Central to this approach is an unwavering focus on process, safety, and arm health. Don’t expect to see the newly drafted prep pitcher you can't contain your excitement for, but understand the ‘why’: that when he gets to that game mound in live action, hopefully, it’s for the long haul.

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[Parfigliano]

So the David Clyde new hire orientation plan is history?

[AceWrigley]

Eddie Bane wants a do-over.

[nclahammer]

A very interesting read, answers some questions and wonderings I've always had regarding pitching draft picks.

[Jamie Cameron]

36 minutes ago, nclahammer said:

A very interesting read, answers some questions and wonderings I've always had regarding pitching draft picks.

Thanks for reading and saying so, same for me!

[Doctor Wu]

Good article that helps us understand a bit better about why so many of the young drafted pitchers aren't put into action sooner. That said, I was hoping for more input or quotes from Nat Ballenberg, the pitching coordinator that was mentioned in the first paragraph. Reading the  rest of the article, I wasn't sure which points were ones that came from Ballenberg or were Jamie's own synopsis. Nevertheless, good stuff!

[dxpavelka]

17 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

So the David Clyde new hire orientation plan is history?

Some guys still proceed thru the plan at an accelerated pace.  Especially if they are thought to have immediate value to the big league team.  Paul Skenes.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Some guys still proceed thru the plan at an accelerated pace.  Especially if they are thought to have immediate value to the big league team.  Paul Skenes.

Clyde was drafted out of high school and went straight to MLB as a starting pitcher. No college ball no MiLb.  High school to MLB starter.

Skenes was drafted out of college after 2-3 yrs there then went through Pirates MiLB system in 1 year to MLB.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Excellent article.

[LambchoP]

The organization has done a great job drafting and identifying talent from young pitchers. Lately it seems like they can get the best stuff out of these young guys, allowing them to move up through the minors league levels quickly. Now if they could just come up with a system or find a way to keep our guys relatively injury free and healthy we'd be all set:)

[bean5302]

43 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

The organization has done a great job drafting and identifying talent from young pitchers. Lately it seems like they can get the best stuff out of these young guys, allowing them to move up through the minors league levels quickly. Now if they could just come up with a system or find a way to keep our guys relatively injury free and healthy we'd be all set:)

Bailey Ober is the only starter the Twins have drafted and developed who has not only made it to the majors, but has also established himself. Aside from that, here are the round 1-5 pitchers selected by the Twins.

Rotation misses
2017 Landon Leach
2017 Blayne Enlow
2017 Charlie Barnes
2018 Cole Sands
2019 Matt Canterino
(Traded away) 2021 Steve Hajjar

Doesn't look good
2023 Tanner Hall
2023 Dylan Questad

Rotation Hopefuls on Track
2020 Marco Raya 
(Traded away) 2021 Chase Petty
2021 Christian MacLeod
2022 Connor Prielipp
2022 Andrew Morris
2023 Charlee Soto

Promising
(Traded away) 2021 Cade Povich

Established
Nobody

[Linus]

Thanks for writing this. 

[Fatbat]

3 hours ago, LambchoP said:

The organization has done a great job drafting and identifying talent from young pitchers. Lately it seems like they can get the best stuff out of these young guys, allowing them to move up through the minors league levels quickly. Now if they could just come up with a system or find a way to keep our guys relatively injury free and healthy we'd be all set:)

The Twins don’t have a higher average of Milb pitching injuries compared to any other organization.  

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Bailey Ober is the only starter the Twins have drafted and developed who has not only made it to the majors, but has also established himself. Aside from that, here are the round 1-5 pitchers selected by the Twins.

Rotation misses
2017 Landon Leach
2017 Blayne Enlow
2017 Charlie Barnes
2018 Cole Sands
2019 Matt Canterino
(Traded away) 2021 Steve Hajjar

Doesn't look good
2023 Tanner Hall
2023 Dylan Questad

Rotation Hopefuls on Track
2020 Marco Raya 
(Traded away) 2021 Chase Petty
2021 Christian MacLeod
2022 Connor Prielipp
2022 Andrew Morris
2023 Charlee Soto

Promising
(Traded away) 2021 Cade Povich

Established
Nobody

Why cherry pick rounds 1-5? 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Why cherry pick rounds 1-5? 

You keep using that word... I do not think it means what you think it means.

Cherry picking is intentionally selecting only data set(s) which are beneficial to an argument. I arbitrarily chose rounds 1-5 as it feels like a fair cutoff for upper round selections where you might expect to find good talent. The results would be similar if I chose rounds 1-3 or rounds 1-7 or all rounds, except it's hardly fair to hold late round lottery ticket selections against the front office as failures.

[dxpavelka]

12 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Clyde was drafted out of high school and went straight to MLB as a starting pitcher. No college ball no MiLb.  High school to MLB starter.

Skenes was drafted out of college after 2-3 yrs there then went through Pirates MiLB system in 1 year to MLB.

Even a college guy to the bigs in one year is accelerated these days. 

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Bailey Ober is the only starter the Twins have drafted and developed who has not only made it to the majors, but has also established himself.

Right. I see no evidence that the program as described above is helping to develop pitchers or keep them healthy. I do not believe that affiliated games are uniquely stressful or that protecting pitchers from seeing batters is helpful to their development. They're baseball players, not fighter pilots.

[Jamie Cameron]

On 11/19/2024 at 6:47 AM, Doctor Wu said:

Good article that helps us understand a bit better about why so many of the young drafted pitchers aren't put into action sooner. That said, I was hoping for more input or quotes from Nat Ballenberg, the pitching coordinator that was mentioned in the first paragraph. Reading the  rest of the article, I wasn't sure which points were ones that came from Ballenberg or were Jamie's own synopsis. Nevertheless, good stuff!

I hear that. The way it was written was a design choice, made with Nat. I think it's safe to think of the article as a summary of the orgs approach at a high level.

[Doctor Wu]

19 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

I hear that. The way it was written was a design choice, made with Nat. I think it's safe to think of the article as a summary of the orgs approach at a high level.

Thanks for the clarification. And again, very good article. It always helps us fans to gain more knowledge about how the organization thinks and acts. 

[Major League Ready]

On 11/19/2024 at 2:53 PM, bean5302 said:

You keep using that word... I do not think it means what you think it means.

Cherry picking is intentionally selecting only data set(s) which are beneficial to an argument. I arbitrarily chose rounds 1-5 as it feels like a fair cutoff for upper round selections where you might expect to find good talent. The results would be similar if I chose rounds 1-3 or rounds 1-7 or all rounds, except it's hardly fair to hold late round lottery ticket selections against the front office as failures.

Someone that follows the twins as closely as you is aware of the Twins history of drafting position players early and college pitchers after round 5.  So, why only consider rounds 1-5?  Does it matter which round the player is drafted?  Of course, the round drafted makes absolutely no difference in terms of value once they get here.  Also, it takes no more effort to look at all of the players so why only look at rounds 1-5?  

Why ignore relief pitchers?  There seems to be a consensus on TD that the BP is very important.  Seems like an unbiased assessment would at least mention the BP.

It also does not make sense to ignore unproven players acquired in trade or any other method.  They are equally valuable.  One could even argue these other acquisition methods are crucial to lower revenue teams in accumulating enough talent to contend.  These other acquisition methods are responsible for 31% of 1.5+ WAR players when considering every 90+ win team in the bottom half of revenue since 2000.  Drafted players account for 33%.  The most successful teams, the Guardians and Rays, have produced more WAR from trading for prospects than drafting.  The Guardians ratio is 26% draft and 44% other and the Rays are 32% draft, 40% other.   

I think we can all agree that value does not change based on what round they were drafted or if they were acquired via trade, waiver wire, etc.  If we are going to assess their ability to acquire and develop talent, we should consider all aspects of acquiring talent.  When you look at this particular small subset, it gives the appearance you are choosing data that fits a given narrative.